Value Bet Calculator
Identify value bets by comparing your estimated probability against bookmaker odds. Uses Kelly Criterion for optimal staking.
What is a Value Bet?
A value bet occurs when the probability of an outcome is higher than the probability implied by the bookmaker’s odds. In other words, you believe the true chance of winning is greater than what the bookie is offering.
The Formula
Value = (Your Probability × Odds) − 1
If the result is positive, you have a value bet. For example: you estimate a team has a 50% chance of winning, and the odds are 2.20. Value = (0.50 × 2.20) − 1 = +0.10 (10% edge).
Expected Value Example
Over 100 bets at $10 each with a 10% edge:
Expected profit = 100 × $10 × 10% = $100
This is a long-term expectation — short-term results will vary due to variance
Kelly Criterion Staking
The Kelly Criterion determines the optimal stake size based on your edge:
Kelly % = (bp − q) / b
Where b = odds − 1, p = your probability, q = 1 − p.
Kelly Example
Odds of 2.20, your probability 50%:
b = 1.20, p = 0.50, q = 0.50
Kelly = (1.20 × 0.50 − 0.50) / 1.20 = 8.3% of bankroll
Fractional Kelly
Full Kelly maximises long-term growth but is very volatile. Most professionals use fractional Kelly (25-50%) for a smoother ride, accepting lower growth for significantly reduced risk of ruin.
How to find Value Bets with SmartOdds.win?
Glad you asked - SmartOdds.win offers you with various model predictions for different sports and a range of tournaments in each category. All you have to do is visit the sports predictions models and select the sports and competition you are interested. There are quite a few models used to generate predictions for each tournament, and one of them is the Value Scanner section which calculates probabilities for different outcomes and compares it agains online bookmaker odds to identify potential value bets.