Expected Bonus Value Calculator
Evaluate whether a promotional offer has positive expected value. Enter the promotion type, stake, boosted odds vs true/fair odds, and see the edge percentage, EV per bet, EV per hour, monthly EV projection, and risk level.
Expected Value Calculator
Odds Format
Promotion Type
Stake
$
Boosted / Promoted Odds
True / Fair Odds
Offers per Week
Minutes per Offer
Expected Value Analysis
Edge
+20.0%
EV per Bet
$0.80
EV per Hour$4.80
Monthly EV$13.86
Risk Level🟡 Medium
Estimating Fair Odds
Use exchange odds (with margin removed) as your fair odds estimate, or use our Vig/No-Vig Calculator to derive fair odds from bookmaker prices. A positive edge means the promotion offers genuine value.
What Is Expected Value?
Expected Value (EV) measures the average profit or loss you can expect from a bet over time. A positive EV (+EV) promotion means you profit on average; a negative EV (−EV) one costs you money over time.
Promotion Types Covered
- Reload offers: Deposit X, get Y% bonus
- Cashback: Lose up to X, get Y% back
- Odds Boosts: Enhanced price on a specific selection
- Price Guarantees: Best price guaranteed
- Money Back: Refund if specific conditions met
How to Estimate Fair Odds
Use exchange odds (with margin removed) as your fair odds estimate. Alternatively, use our Vig/No-Vig Calculator to derive fair odds from bookmaker prices.