Home/Sports/Predictions/Hockey/NHL USA Predictions

NHL PREDICTIONS

2026/2027

Flat Betting Model

Matches w/ Odds

$10

Stake Per Bet

+45.61%

Best: Home Bet (1X2)

-100%

Worst: Draw (regulation)

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for NHL USA. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

Market	Bets	Wins	Win %	Staked	Return	P&L	ROI	Best Str.	Worst Str.
Home Bet (1X2)	88	54	61.36%	$880	$1281.4	+$401.40	+45.61%	7	5
Draw (regulation)	88	0	0%	$880	$0	−$880.00	-100%	0	88
Away Bet (1X2)	88	34	38.64%	$880	$881.1	+$1.10	+0.12%	5	7
Over 6.5	88	41	46.59%	$880	$792.4	−$87.60	-9.95%	3	5
Under 6.5	88	47	53.41%	$880	$803.5	−$76.50	-8.69%	5	3
Favorite	88	51	57.95%	$880	$1076.3	+$196.30	+22.31%	8	4
Underdog	88	37	42.05%	$880	$1085.7	+$205.70	+23.38%	4	8

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

Market	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Home Bet (1X2)	88	+$401.40	+45.61%	+$2043.22	+20.3%	+$360.31	+43.06%
Draw (regulation)	88	−$880.00	-100%	$0.00	0%	−$885.71	-100%
Away Bet (1X2)	88	+$1.10	+0.12%	−$11.01	-40.87%	+$1.10	+0.12%
Over 6.5	88	−$87.60	-9.95%	−$16.10	-33.44%	−$71.20	-8.07%
Under 6.5	88	−$76.50	-8.69%	−$3.85	-30.12%	−$63.74	-7.25%
Favorite	88	+$196.30	+22.31%	+$97.74	+8.84%	+$196.20	+22.58%
Underdog	88	+$205.70	+23.38%	+$16.48	+13.2%	+$215.99	+24.23%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

Team	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Calgary Flames	5	4	80%	+$82.30	+164.6%
New Jersey Devils	6	5	83.33%	+$61.60	+102.67%
Boston Bruins	5	4	80%	+$49.90	+99.8%
Montreal Canadiens	5	4	80%	+$48.10	+96.2%
Philadelphia Flyers	5	3	60%	+$45.80	+91.6%
Minnesota Wild	6	5	83.33%	+$47.40	+79%
Detroit Red Wings	6	4	66.67%	+$46.30	+77.17%
Dallas Stars	5	4	80%	+$35.80	+71.6%
Washington Capitals	4	3	75%	+$26.70	+66.75%
Toronto Maple Leafs	7	4	57.14%	+$35.80	+51.14%
Los Angeles Kings	6	3	50%	+$23.80	+39.67%
Utah Mammoth	6	3	50%	+$17.80	+29.67%
Florida Panthers	6	4	66.67%	+$17.40	+29%
Columbus Blue Jackets	4	2	50%	+$11.30	+28.25%
New York Islanders	6	3	50%	+$15.70	+26.17%
Carolina Hurricanes	6	4	66.67%	+$14.90	+24.83%
Tampa Bay Lightning	5	3	60%	+$9.90	+19.8%
Ottawa Senators	6	3	50%	+$10.10	+16.83%
Seattle Kraken	5	2	40%	+$6.00	+12%
Chicago Blackhawks	5	2	40%	+$4.90	+9.8%
Edmonton Oilers	5	2	40%	+$2.40	+4.8%
Buffalo Sabres	5	2	40%	−$0.80	-1.6%
Nashville Predators	6	2	33.33%	−$2.60	-4.33%
Vegas Golden Knights	6	3	50%	−$3.00	-5%
Pittsburgh Penguins	5	2	40%	−$3.70	-7.4%
San Jose Sharks	6	2	33.33%	−$5.10	-8.5%
St. Louis Blues	6	2	33.33%	−$8.00	-13.33%
Colorado Avalanche	6	2	33.33%	−$18.30	-30.5%
Anaheim Ducks	5	1	20%	−$23.50	-47%
New York Rangers	6	1	16.67%	−$36.40	-60.67%
Vancouver Canucks	5	0	0%	−$50.00	-100%
Winnipeg Jets	6	0	0%	−$60.00	-100%

PPG Model

Teams

1.11

League Avg PPG

1.04

Home Factor

λ=0.85

WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for NHL USA. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI	Trend
Home Win	73	44	60.27%	+$302.20	+41.4%
Away Win	75	28	37.33%	−$28.10	-3.75%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:: Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:: Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:: Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:: Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:: Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI	Comparison
Home Win	73	+$302.20	+41.4%	+$55.14	+7.55%	+$25.05	+3.43%
Away Win	75	−$28.10	-3.75%	−$6.74	-0.9%	−$1.81	-0.24%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds	Result	✓
28 Oct	San Jose Sharks vs Buffalo Sabres	San Jose Sharks	60.67%	1.65	0 – 2	✗
28 Oct	Vegas Golden Knights vs Ottawa Senators	Vegas Golden Knights	57.16%	1.75	4 – 1	✓
28 Oct	Utah Mammoth vs Minnesota Wild	Utah Mammoth	54.77%	1.83	1 – 3	✗
28 Oct	Winnipeg Jets vs Florida Panthers	Florida Panthers	58.4%	1.71	1 – 5	✓
28 Oct	St. Louis Blues vs Montreal Canadiens	Montreal Canadiens	61%	1.64	0 – 2	✓

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds
20 Oct	Montreal Canadiens vs San Jose Sharks	Montreal Canadiens	61.38%	1.63
21 Oct	Dallas Stars vs Boston Bruins	***	0%	0
21 Oct	Edmonton Oilers vs Minnesota Wild	🔒 Login or register for free to see predictions data.
27 Oct	Philadelphia Flyers vs Columbus Blue Jackets
28 Oct	Anaheim Ducks vs Vancouver Canucks

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

Team	PPG ↓	H-PPG	A-PPG	WPPG	vs Avg
1Edmonton Oilers	1.6	1.25	2	1.35	+0.49
2Carolina Hurricanes	1.56	1.57	1.55	1.64	+0.45
3Montreal Canadiens	1.44	1.5	1.38	1.56	+0.33
4New Jersey Devils	1.44	1.6	1.17	1.57	+0.33
5Boston Bruins	1.44	1.75	1.13	1.45	+0.33
6Dallas Stars	1.4	1.25	1.57	1.32	+0.29
7Vegas Golden Knights	1.39	1.4	1.38	1.26	+0.28
8Washington Capitals	1.36	1.56	1	1.28	+0.25
9Tampa Bay Lightning	1.33	1.71	1	1.28	+0.22
10Seattle Kraken	1.31	1.43	1.22	1.19	+0.20
11Minnesota Wild	1.29	1.67	1.09	1.49	+0.18
12Florida Panthers	1.29	1.4	1.25	1.29	+0.18
13Utah Mammoth	1.24	1.43	1.1	1.09	+0.13
14Toronto Maple Leafs	1.17	1.1	1.25	1.22	+0.06
15Detroit Red Wings	1.13	1	1.29	1.25	+0.02
16Columbus Blue Jackets	1.08	1.33	0.5	0.97	-0.03
17Colorado Avalanche	1.06	1.63	0.5	0.91	-0.05
18New York Rangers	1.06	1.56	0.56	0.79	-0.05
19Ottawa Senators	1.06	1.33	0.78	1.01	-0.05
20New York Islanders	1	1.13	0.88	1.19	-0.11
21San Jose Sharks	1	1	1	0.77	-0.11
22Buffalo Sabres	1	1	1	1.12	-0.11
23Nashville Predators	0.94	1.11	0.71	1.07	-0.17
24Pittsburgh Penguins	0.94	1.43	0.56	0.97	-0.17
25Winnipeg Jets	0.88	0.89	0.86	0.62	-0.23
26Calgary Flames	0.87	1.11	0.5	1.26	-0.24
27St. Louis Blues	0.81	1.13	0.5	0.8	-0.30
28Chicago Blackhawks	0.81	1.2	0.17	0.82	-0.30
29Los Angeles Kings	0.8	0.33	1.11	0.85	-0.31
30Anaheim Ducks	0.8	0.67	0.89	0.73	-0.31
31Philadelphia Flyers	0.65	0.89	0.38	0.86	-0.46
32Vancouver Canucks	0.41	0.5	0.33	0.23	-0.70

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

Calgary Flames

PPG: 0.87WPPG: 1.26Gap: ↑ 0.39

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

New York Rangers

PPG: 1.06WPPG: 0.79Gap: ↓ 0.27

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Winnipeg Jets

PPG: 0.88WPPG: 0.62Gap: ↓ 0.26

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Edmonton Oilers

PPG: 1.6WPPG: 1.35Gap: ↓ 0.25

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

San Jose Sharks

PPG: 1WPPG: 0.77Gap: ↓ 0.23

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Worked Example — San Jose Sharks vs Buffalo Sabres

P(San Jose Sharks) = 1.4 / (1.4+1) × 1.04

= 0.583 × 1.04 = 60.67% → Fair odds 1.65

P(Buffalo Sabres) = 1 − 60.67%

= 39.33% → Fair odds 2.54

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

3.63

Home xG (λ)

3.04

Away xG (λ)

6.67

Total E[goals]

3.18

League Avg Home

2.87

League Avg Away

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Montreal Canadiens vs San Jose Sharks

20 Oct · Each cell shows the probability of that exact scoreline. Dixon-Coles corrected (ρ = -0.13). · Upcoming

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
0	0.3%	0.2%	0.6%	0.6%	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%
1	0.3%	1.7%	2.2%	2.3%	1.7%	1.0%	0.5%	0.2%
2	0.9%	2.7%	4.0%	4.1%	3.1%	1.9%	1.0%	0.4%
3	1.1%	3.2%	4.9%	5.0%	3.8%	2.3%	1.2%	0.5%
4	1.0%	2.9%	4.4%	4.5%	3.4%	2.1%	1.1%	0.5%
5	0.7%	2.1%	3.2%	3.3%	2.5%	1.5%	0.8%	0.3%
6	0.4%	1.3%	1.9%	2.0%	1.5%	0.9%	0.5%	0.2%
7	0.2%	0.7%	1.0%	1.0%	0.8%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%

Most likely High Medium Low

Derived Markets

Home Win

50.04%

Fair odds: 2

Market: 1.93 (51.8%)

OVERTIME

16.47%

Fair odds: 6.07

Market: 4.82 (20.7%)

Away Win

33.49%

Fair odds: 2.99

Market: 3.28 (30.5%)

Over 4.578.52%/ Under 21.48%Fair: 1.27

Over 5.563.91%/ Under 36.09%Fair: 1.56

Over 6.547.68%/ Under 52.32%Fair: 2.1

Over 7.532.21%/ Under 67.79%Fair: 3.1

Over 8.519.44%/ Under 80.56%Fair: 5.14

Correct Score — Top 12

13-3

4.96%D

23-2

4.89%H

34-3

4.5%H

44-2

4.44%H

52-3

4.1%A

62-2

4.04%D

73-4

3.77%A

84-4

3.42%D

95-3

3.26%H

103-1

3.22%H

115-2

3.22%H

122-4

3.11%A

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Where the low-score correction adds value

Plain Poisson

P(0-0) = 0.1%

P(1-0) = 0.5%

P(0-1) = 0.4%

P(1-1) = 1.4%

✗ Underestimates 0-0, 1-0, 0-1

Dixon-Coles (ρ correction)

P(0-0) = 0.3% (+0.2%)

P(1-0) = 0.3% (-0.2%)

P(0-1) = 0.2% (-0.2%)

P(1-1) = 1.7% (+0.3%)

✓ Fixes low-score underestimation

💡 Why does this matter? Low-scoring ties (0-0, 1-1) are underpriced by plain Poisson. Dixon-Coles applies a correction factor (ρ) to fix this, improving accuracy on regulation-time outcomes.

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

Team	Att (H)	Def (H)	Att (A)	Def (A)	H GP	A GP
Montreal Canadiens	1.02	1.05	1.18	0.79	8	8
Toronto Maple Leafs	0.97	1.05	1.52	1.06	10	8
St. Louis Blues	0.67	0.74	1	1.06	8	8
Dallas Stars	0.83	0.78	0.85	0.36	8	7
Edmonton Oilers	1.18	1.31	1.54	0.67	8	7
Winnipeg Jets	0.7	1.01	0.8	1.03	9	7
Minnesota Wild	1	0.7	0.92	0.71	6	11
Chicago Blackhawks	0.85	1.05	0.46	1.21	10	6
Los Angeles Kings	0.73	1.28	1.05	0.98	6	9
Vegas Golden Knights	1.23	1.01	1.09	0.83	10	8
Seattle Kraken	1.17	1.14	1.32	1.05	7	9
Vancouver Canucks	0.98	1.44	0.77	1.36	8	9
New Jersey Devils	1.07	0.73	1.1	1.05	10	6
New York Islanders	0.9	1	0.87	0.94	8	8
Anaheim Ducks	0.84	1.1	0.97	1.33	6	9
San Jose Sharks	1.08	1	1.01	1.12	7	9
Boston Bruins	1.38	0.57	0.96	0.79	8	8
Washington Capitals	1.19	1.05	1.04	0.85	9	5
Tampa Bay Lightning	1.03	0.75	1.09	1.18	7	8
Nashville Predators	0.84	1.08	0.95	1.21	9	7
Colorado Avalanche	1.53	0.96	0.87	1.02	8	8
Utah Mammoth	1.17	1.05	1.18	1.07	7	10
Florida Panthers	1.22	1.04	0.99	0.89	5	12
Carolina Hurricanes	1.08	0.9	1.49	0.83	7	11
Calgary Flames	0.87	1.08	0.7	1.36	9	6
Philadelphia Flyers	0.63	1.16	0.52	1.06	9	8
Columbus Blue Jackets	0.8	0.89	0.82	1.06	9	4
Detroit Red Wings	0.87	1.12	1	0.85	9	7
Pittsburgh Penguins	1.12	0.95	1.01	1.19	7	9
Buffalo Sabres	0.79	1	0.96	1.14	8	8
New York Rangers	1.36	0.89	0.77	1.05	9	9
Ottawa Senators	1.01	1.12	0.81	1.01	9	9

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:: Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:: P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:: Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:: Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:: Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +50 Elo.

1Carolina Hurricanes

1599

2Edmonton Oilers

1571

3Boston Bruins

1571

4New Jersey Devils

1568

5Montreal Canadiens

1566

6Minnesota Wild

1560

7Dallas Stars

1549

8Utah Mammoth

1547

9Vegas Golden Knights

1545

10Tampa Bay Lightning

1541

11Washington Capitals

1540

12Seattle Kraken

1540

13Florida Panthers

1519

14Toronto Maple Leafs

1509

15Columbus Blue Jackets

1496

16Ottawa Senators

1496

17Calgary Flames

1489

18New York Rangers

1486

19Colorado Avalanche

1485

20Pittsburgh Penguins

1482

21New York Islanders

1480

22Detroit Red Wings

1477

23San Jose Sharks

1470

24St. Louis Blues

1462

25Anaheim Ducks

1462

26Los Angeles Kings

1459

27Buffalo Sabres

1456

28Chicago Blackhawks

1446

29Nashville Predators

1428

30Winnipeg Jets

1421

31Philadelphia Flyers

1409

32Vancouver Canucks

1371

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo Diff	P(Higher wins)	Fair Odds	Typical Matchup
0	50.0%	2.00	Evenly matched
50	57.1%	1.75	Mid vs mid-lower
100	64.0%	1.56	Top-8 vs bottom-8
150	70.3%	1.42	Top-4 vs relegation
200	76.0%	1.32	Leader vs bottom half
250	80.8%	1.24	Leader vs bottom 3
300	84.9%	1.18	Carolina Hurricanes vs Vancouver Canucks

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

Carolina HurricanesEdmonton OilersBoston BruinsNew Jersey DevilsMontreal CanadiensMinnesota Wild

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#	Team	Elo	Peak	Δ	GP	W	L
1	Carolina Hurricanes	1599	1599	+99	18	13	5
2	Edmonton Oilers	1571	1618	+71	15	11	4
3	Boston Bruins	1571	1584	+71	16	11	5
4	New Jersey Devils	1568	1568	+68	16	11	5
5	Montreal Canadiens	1566	1566	+66	16	11	5
6	Minnesota Wild	1560	1560	+60	17	10	7
7	Dallas Stars	1549	1568	+49	15	10	5
8	Utah Mammoth	1547	1575	+47	17	10	7
9	Vegas Golden Knights	1545	1587	+45	18	12	6
10	Tampa Bay Lightning	1541	1572	+41	15	9	6
11	Washington Capitals	1540	1559	+40	14	9	5
12	Seattle Kraken	1540	1567	+40	16	10	6
13	Florida Panthers	1519	1519	+19	17	9	8
14	Toronto Maple Leafs	1509	1525	+9	18	9	9
15	Columbus Blue Jackets	1496	1542	-4	13	7	6
16	Ottawa Senators	1496	1528	-4	18	9	9
17	Calgary Flames	1489	1500	-11	15	6	9
18	New York Rangers	1486	1558	-14	18	9	9
19	Colorado Avalanche	1485	1524	-15	16	8	8
20	Pittsburgh Penguins	1482	1532	-18	16	7	9
21	New York Islanders	1480	1505	-20	16	7	9
22	Detroit Red Wings	1477	1519	-23	16	7	9
23	San Jose Sharks	1470	1533	-30	16	7	9
24	St. Louis Blues	1462	1500	-38	16	6	10
25	Anaheim Ducks	1462	1519	-38	15	6	9
26	Los Angeles Kings	1459	1500	-41	15	5	10
27	Buffalo Sabres	1456	1501	-44	16	6	10
28	Chicago Blackhawks	1446	1501	-54	16	6	10
29	Nashville Predators	1428	1501	-72	16	5	11
30	Winnipeg Jets	1421	1509	-79	16	5	11
31	Philadelphia Flyers	1409	1500	-91	17	4	13
32	Vancouver Canucks	1371	1500	-129	17	3	14

Elo Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	88	51	58%	+$350.00	+39.77%
Elo Favourite	88	54	61%	+$314.10	+35.69%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	48	30	63%	+$162.60	+33.88%
Elo Away Pick (>50%)	22	11	50%	+$19.90	+9.05%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	88	+$350.00	+39.77%	+$457.24	+22.3%	+$327.59	+38.7%
Elo Favourite	88	+$314.10	+35.69%	+$686.86	+22.98%	+$291.92	+34.11%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	48	+$162.60	+33.88%	+$182.72	+20.26%	+$156.70	+33.6%
Elo Away Pick (>50%)	22	+$19.90	+9.05%	−$1.58	-7.73%	+$14.99	+6.94%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:: Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:: E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:: R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:: Home team gets +50 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:: Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

Upcoming Fixtures — Value Identified by Each Model Independently

Min EV threshold2%

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1Value bets found

1Multi-model consensus

+13.9%Avg EV found

Consensus across 3 models · Odds: H 1.93 · D 4.51 · A 3.43

Home Win

65.8%

Mkt implied: 51.8%

EV +13.9%

Draw

5.3%

Mkt implied: 22.2%

EV -16.8%

Away Win

28.9%

Mkt implied: 29.1%

EV -0.2%

PPG: H 69% D 0% A 31%Dixon-Coles: H 59% D 16% A 25%Elo: H 69% D 0% A 31%

NHL PREDICTIONS

Flat Betting Model

Odds Range Filter

Market ROI Summary

Staking Plan Comparison

By Team Bets

PPG Model

Odds Range Filter

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

PPG Ratings — All Teams

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Worked Example — San Jose Sharks vs Buffalo Sabres

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Montreal Canadiens vs San Jose Sharks

Derived Markets

Correct Score — Top 12

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Team Attack & Defense Strength

How Poisson Predictions Work

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

Elo → Win Probability Table

Elo Rating History — Top 6

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Elo Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

How Elo Ratings Work

Value Scanner

Upcoming Fixtures — Value Identified by Each Model Independently