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Virsliga Latvia Prediction Models

2026

Flat Betting Model

Matches w/ Odds

$10

Stake Per Bet

+5.67%

Best: Under 2.5

-73.75%

Worst: Away Underdog

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for Virsliga Latvia. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

Market	Bets	Wins	Win %	Staked	Return	P&L	ROI	Best Str.	Worst Str.
Home Bet	56	25	44.64%	$560	$512.3	−$47.70	-8.52%	6	7
Draw Bet	56	13	23.21%	$560	$551.2	−$8.80	-1.57%	3	11
Away Bet	56	18	32.14%	$560	$329.8	−$230.20	-41.11%	4	7
Over 2.5	51	29	56.86%	$510	$511.9	+$1.90	+0.37%	9	6
Under 2.5	51	22	43.14%	$510	$538.9	+$28.90	+5.67%	6	9
BTTS Yes	55	28	50.91%	$550	$499.8	−$50.20	-9.13%	4	3
Home Favorite	31	20	64.52%	$310	$325	+$15.00	+4.84%	8	3
Away Underdog	16	1	6.25%	$160	$42	−$118.00	-73.75%	1	8
Favorite	56	36	64.29%	$560	$584.8	+$24.80	+4.43%	9	3
Underdog	56	7	12.5%	$560	$257.3	−$302.70	-54.05%	1	13

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

Market	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Home Bet	56	−$47.70	-8.52%	−$59.48	-31.55%	−$0.47	-0.08%
Draw Bet	56	−$8.80	-1.57%	−$24.64	-67.41%	+$21.98	+4.04%
Away Bet	56	−$230.20	-41.11%	−$59.59	-94.09%	−$92.06	-14.96%
Over 2.5	51	+$1.90	+0.37%	−$10.04	-7.65%	−$1.13	-0.21%
Under 2.5	51	+$28.90	+5.67%	−$7.88	-12.83%	+$33.56	+6.36%
BTTS Yes	55	−$50.20	-9.13%	−$8.87	-50.66%	−$51.13	-9.39%
Home Favorite	31	+$15.00	+4.84%	+$20.24	+7.73%	+$6.85	+2.11%
Away Underdog	16	−$118.00	-73.75%	−$0.62	-100%	−$85.00	-61.22%
Favorite	56	+$24.80	+4.43%	+$7.68	+1.81%	+$24.95	+4.18%
Underdog	56	−$302.70	-54.05%	−$19.65	-100%	−$206.17	-38.32%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

Team	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Auda	12	8	66.67%	+$27.10	+22.58%
Liepāja	12	5	41.67%	+$13.80	+11.5%
BFC Daugavpils	11	5	45.45%	−$5.40	-4.91%
Rīgas FS	11	8	72.73%	−$12.90	-11.73%
Super Nova	11	3	27.27%	−$20.40	-18.55%
Riga	11	7	63.64%	−$24.30	-22.09%
Tukums	11	2	18.18%	−$53.60	-48.73%
Grobiņa	11	2	18.18%	−$59.70	-54.27%
FS Jelgava	11	2	18.18%	−$63.80	-58%
Ogre United	11	1	9.09%	−$78.70	-71.55%

PPG Model

Teams

1.39

League Avg PPG

1.08

Home Factor

λ=0.85

WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for Virsliga Latvia. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	56	38	67.86%	+$94.80	+16.93%
PPG Home Pick	28	20	71.43%	+$45.00	+16.07%
PPG Away Pick	28	18	64.29%	+$49.80	+17.79%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	55	33	60%	−$15.00	-2.73%
PPG Value (fair < market)	56	20	35.71%	−$106.40	-19%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:: Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:: Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:: Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:: Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:: Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	56	+$94.80	+16.93%	+$120.41	+21.05%	+$66.39	+11.18%
PPG Home Pick	28	+$45.00	+16.07%	+$67.17	+24.37%	+$29.53	+9.92%
PPG Away Pick	28	+$49.80	+17.79%	+$1.75	+1.57%	+$37.35	+12.34%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	55	−$15.00	-2.73%	−$12.24	-6.96%	+$10.31	+1.66%
PPG Value (fair < market)	56	−$106.40	-19%	−$81.73	-53.48%	+$33.78	+7%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds	Result	✓
26 Oct	Grobiņa vs Riga	Riga	63.68%	1.57	2 – 5	✓
25 Oct	Super Nova vs Rīgas FS	Rīgas FS	57.62%	1.74	0 – 3	✓
25 Oct	FS Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils	BFC Daugavpils	43.14%	2.32	0 – 1	✓
25 Oct	Ogre United vs Auda	Auda	70.23%	1.42	1 – 4	✓
24 Oct	Liepāja vs Tukums	Liepāja	62.07%	1.61	0 – 0	✗

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds
01 Nov	Rīgas FS vs Grobiņa	Rīgas FS	74.16%	1.35
01 Nov	Ogre United vs Riga	***	0%	0
01 Nov	Liepāja vs Super Nova	🔒 Login or register for free to see predictions data.
01 Nov	BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums
01 Nov	Auda vs FS Jelgava

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

Team	PPG ↓	H-PPG	A-PPG	WPPG	vs Avg
1Rīgas FS	2.53	2.35	2.71	2.56	+1.14
2Riga	2.41	2.53	2.29	2.47	+1.02
3Auda	1.97	1.94	2	1.94	+0.58
4BFC Daugavpils	1.41	1.71	1.12	1.86	+0.02
5Liepāja	1.38	1.82	0.94	1.41	-0.01
6Super Nova	1.12	0.88	1.35	0.87	-0.27
7FS Jelgava	0.94	0.82	1.06	0.59	-0.45
8Grobiņa	0.85	1.06	0.65	0.9	-0.54
9Tukums	0.74	1.18	0.29	0.63	-0.65
10Ogre United	0.53	0.65	0.41	0.54	-0.86

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

BFC Daugavpils

PPG: 1.41WPPG: 1.86Gap: ↑ 0.45

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

FS Jelgava

PPG: 0.94WPPG: 0.59Gap: ↓ 0.35

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Super Nova

PPG: 1.12WPPG: 0.87Gap: ↓ 0.25

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Tukums

PPG: 0.74WPPG: 0.63Gap: ↓ 0.11

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Riga

PPG: 2.41WPPG: 2.47Gap: ↑ 0.06

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Worked Example — Grobiņa vs Riga

P(Grobiņa) = 0.88 / (0.88+2.39) × 1.08

= 0.269 × 1.08 = 26.45% → Fair odds 3.78

P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)

= 9.87% → Fair odds 10.13

P(Riga) = 1 − 26.45% − 9.87%

= 63.68% → Fair odds 1.57

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

Home xG (λ)

0.38

Away xG (λ)

3.38

Total E[goals]

1.61

League Avg Home

1.29

League Avg Away

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Rīgas FS vs Grobiņa

31 Oct · Each cell shows the probability of that exact scoreline. Dixon-Coles corrected (ρ = -0.13). · Upcoming

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	4.0%	0.8%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1	10.1%	4.5%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	15.8%	6.0%	1.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	15.8%	6.0%	1.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	11.9%	4.5%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5	7.1%	2.7%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	3.6%	1.4%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Most likely High Medium Low

Derived Markets

Home Win

87.97%

Fair odds: 1.14

Draw

9.88%

Fair odds: 10.12

Away Win

2.15%

Fair odds: 46.48

Over 0.595.96%/ Under 4.04%Fair: 1.04

Over 1.585.09%/ Under 14.91%Fair: 1.18

Over 2.564.45%/ Under 35.55%Fair: 1.55

Over 3.541.78%/ Under 58.22%Fair: 2.39

Over 4.522.62%/ Under 77.38%Fair: 4.42

BTTS Yes30.51%Fair: 3.28

BTTS No69.49%Fair: 1.44

Correct Score — Top 12

12-0

15.85%H

23-0

15.85%H

34-0

11.89%H

41-0

10.05%H

55-0

7.13%H

62-1

6.02%H

73-1

6.02%H

81-1

4.54%D

94-1

4.52%H

100-0

4.04%D

116-0

3.57%H

125-1

2.71%H

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Where the low-score correction adds value

Plain Poisson

P(0-0) = 3.4%

P(1-0) = 10.2%

P(0-1) = 1.3%

P(1-1) = 3.9%

✗ Underestimates 0-0, 1-0, 0-1

Dixon-Coles (ρ correction)

P(0-0) = 4.0% (+0.6%)

P(1-0) = 10.1% (-0.2%)

P(0-1) = 0.8% (-0.5%)

P(1-1) = 4.5% (+0.7%)

✓ Fixes low-score underestimation

💡 Why does this matter? Draws in football are dominated by 0-0 and 1-1. Plain Poisson underprices these by 15–20%. Dixon-Coles corrects this, generating better ROI on draw markets.

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Poisson/Dixon-Coles model — xG computed only from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	40	16	40%	+$2.90	+0.73%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	24	17	70.83%	+$35.50	+14.79%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	18	13	72.22%	+$33.00	+18.33%
DC Draw (>28%)	17	5	29.41%	+$30.00	+17.65%
DC Over 2.5 Value	20	10	50%	−$13.30	-6.65%
DC BTTS Value	10	3	30%	−$45.10	-45.1%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Dixon-Coles bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	40	+$2.90	+0.73%	−$36.94	-28.11%	+$23.70	+5.64%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	24	+$35.50	+14.79%	+$1.05	+0.27%	+$27.07	+10.16%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	18	+$33.00	+18.33%	+$16.06	+45.7%	+$19.88	+10.44%
DC Draw (>28%)	17	+$30.00	+17.65%	−$5.06	-19.19%	+$16.06	+9.53%
DC Over 2.5 Value	20	−$13.30	-6.65%	−$27.63	-23.57%	−$12.10	-5.92%
DC BTTS Value	10	−$45.10	-45.1%	$0.00	0%	−$43.39	-45.66%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

Team	Att (H)	Def (H)	Att (A)	Def (A)	H GP	A GP
Riga	1.75	0.68	2.14	0.66	17	17
Rīgas FS	1.9	0.64	1.46	0.37	17	17
Auda	1.06	0.73	1.28	0.69	17	17
Liepāja	1.13	0.78	0.68	1.06	17	17
Tukums	1.02	1.19	0.73	1.42	17	17
BFC Daugavpils	0.73	0.64	0.91	0.84	17	17
Ogre United	0.69	1.64	0.68	1.79	17	17
FS Jelgava	0.47	1.19	0.96	1.13	17	17
Super Nova	0.62	1.32	0.68	0.77	17	17
Grobiņa	0.62	1.19	0.46	1.28	17	17

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:: Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:: P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:: Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:: Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:: Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1Rīgas FS

1709

2Riga

1693

3Auda

1610

4BFC Daugavpils

1538

5Liepāja

1501

6Super Nova

1434

7FS Jelgava

1404

8Grobiņa

1402

9Tukums

1375

10Ogre United

1334

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo Diff	P(Higher wins)	Fair Odds	Typical Matchup
0	50.0%	2.00	Evenly matched
50	57.1%	1.75	Mid vs mid-lower
100	64.0%	1.56	Top-8 vs bottom-8
150	70.3%	1.42	Top-4 vs relegation
200	76.0%	1.32	Leader vs bottom half
250	80.8%	1.24	Leader vs bottom 3
300	84.9%	1.18	Rīgas FS vs Ogre United
375 (current)	89.7%	1.12	Rīgas FS vs Ogre United

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

Rīgas FSRigaAudaBFC DaugavpilsLiepājaSuper Nova

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#	Team	Elo	Peak	Δ	GP	W	D	L
1	Rīgas FS	1709	1709	+209	34	27	5	2
2	Riga	1693	1693	+193	34	25	7	2
3	Auda	1610	1621	+110	34	20	7	7
4	BFC Daugavpils	1538	1538	+38	34	13	9	12
5	Liepāja	1501	1523	+1	34	13	8	13
6	Super Nova	1434	1540	-66	34	11	5	18
7	FS Jelgava	1404	1515	-96	34	8	8	18
8	Grobiņa	1402	1520	-98	34	6	11	17
9	Tukums	1375	1500	-125	34	5	10	19
10	Ogre United	1334	1500	-166	34	4	6	24

Elo Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	39	9	23%	−$136.50	-35%
Elo Favourite	56	33	59%	−$36.00	-6.43%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	18	14	78%	+$27.70	+15.39%
Elo Away Pick (>50%)	11	9	82%	+$3.60	+3.27%
Elo Draw (>28%)	12	4	33%	+$22.00	+18.33%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	39	−$136.50	-35%	−$58.13	-65.45%	+$29.45	+8.72%
Elo Favourite	56	−$36.00	-6.43%	−$37.52	-33.01%	−$17.11	-2.79%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	18	+$27.70	+15.39%	+$15.68	+7.51%	+$12.82	+7.07%
Elo Away Pick (>50%)	11	+$3.60	+3.27%	+$1.25	+40.06%	+$8.99	+8.01%
Elo Draw (>28%)	12	+$22.00	+18.33%	−$0.56	-5.25%	+$22.00	+18.2%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:: Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:: E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:: R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:: Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:: Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

No upcoming matches with odds available. Please check back later.

Virsliga Latvia Prediction Models

Flat Betting Model

Odds Range Filter

Market ROI Summary

Staking Plan Comparison

By Team Bets

PPG Model

Odds Range Filter

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

PPG Ratings — All Teams

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Worked Example — Grobiņa vs Riga

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Rīgas FS vs Grobiņa

Derived Markets

Correct Score — Top 12

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Team Attack & Defense Strength

How Poisson Predictions Work

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

Elo → Win Probability Table

Elo Rating History — Top 6

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Elo Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

How Elo Ratings Work

Value Scanner