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Super League Uzbekistan Prediction Models

2026

Flat Betting Model

0
Matches w/ Odds
$10
Stake Per Bet
0%
Best: Home Bet
0%
Worst: Home Bet

Odds Range Filter

1.0
10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for Super League Uzbekistan. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

MarketBetsWinsWin %StakedReturnP&LROIBest Str.Worst Str.Trend
Home Bet000%$0$0$0.000%00
Draw Bet000%$0$0$0.000%00
Away Bet000%$0$0$0.000%00
Over 2.5000%$0$0$0.000%00
Under 2.5000%$0$0$0.000%00
BTTS Yes000%$0$0$0.000%00
Home Favorite000%$0$0$0.000%00
Away Underdog000%$0$0$0.000%00
Favorite000%$0$0$0.000%00
Underdog000%$0$0$0.000%00

By Team Bets

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

TeamBetsWinsWin %P&LROI
Andijan000%$0.000%
Buxoro000%$0.000%
Dinamo Samarqand000%$0.000%
Bunyodkor000%$0.000%
Kokand-1912000%$0.000%
Lokomotiv000%$0.000%
Mash'al000%$0.000%
Nasaf000%$0.000%
Navbahor000%$0.000%
Neftchi000%$0.000%
AGMK000%$0.000%
Pakhtakor000%$0.000%
Qizilqum000%$0.000%
Sogdiana000%$0.000%
Surkhon000%$0.000%
Xorazm000%$0.000%

PPG Model

16
Teams
1.29
League Avg PPG
1.08
Home Factor
λ=0.85
WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0
10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for Super League Uzbekistan. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

DateMatchPPG PickProbFair OddsResult✓
26 OctXorazm vs NavbahorXorazm42.59%2.351 – 2✗
25 OctQizilqum vs LokomotivQizilqum42.59%2.351 – 1✗
25 OctAGMK vs Kokand-1912AGMK51.39%1.952 – 1✓
24 OctNasaf vs SogdianaNasaf80.97%1.232 – 1✓
23 OctBuxoro vs SurkhonBuxoro74.36%1.340 – 0✗

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

DateMatchPPG PickProbFair Odds
30 OctSogdiana vs BuxoroBuxoro83.3%1.2
30 OctKokand-1912 vs Qizilqum***0%0
30 OctXorazm vs Pakhtakor
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31 OctMash'al vs Dinamo Samarqand
31 OctSurkhon vs Nasaf

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

TeamPPG ↓H-PPGA-PPGWPPGvs AvgStrength
1Neftchi2.33132.44+1.04
2Buxoro2.33232.22+1.04
3Nasaf2.33312.34+1.04
4AGMK2.33232.44+1.04
5Qizilqum1.67131.66+0.38
6Lokomotiv1.67121.56+0.38
7Navbahor1.67121.78+0.38
8Pakhtakor1.331.511.17+0.04
9Bunyodkor1.33201.5+0.04
10Kokand-191211.500.84-0.29
11Surkhon1111-0.29
12Xorazm0.67010.61-0.62
13Andijan0.3300.50.39-0.96
14Dinamo Samarqand0.330.500.39-0.96
15Sogdiana0.3300.50.33-0.96
16Mash'al0000-1.29

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

Bunyodkor
PPG: 1.33WPPG: 1.5Gap: ↑ 0.17
Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising
Pakhtakor
PPG: 1.33WPPG: 1.17Gap: ↓ 0.16
Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG
Kokand-1912
PPG: 1WPPG: 0.84Gap: ↓ 0.16
Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG
Navbahor
PPG: 1.67WPPG: 1.78Gap: ↑ 0.11
Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising
Neftchi
PPG: 2.33WPPG: 2.44Gap: ↑ 0.11
Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Worked Example — Xorazm vs Navbahor

Xorazm PPG
1
vs
Navbahor PPG
1
P(Xorazm) = 1 / (1+1) × 1.08
= 0.500 × 1.08 = 42.59% → Fair odds 2.35
P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)
= 26.8% → Fair odds 3.73
P(Navbahor) = 1 − 42.59% − 26.8%
= 30.61% → Fair odds 3.27

Poisson / Correct Score

Not enough data yet.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1Neftchi
1536
2Nasaf
1528
3AGMK
1528
4Buxoro
1527
5Navbahor
1520
6Lokomotiv
1519
7Qizilqum
1513
8Surkhon
1504
9Pakhtakor
1497
10Bunyodkor
1496
11Xorazm
1487
12Kokand-1912
1481
13Sogdiana
1473
14Andijan
1471
15Dinamo Samarqand
1466
16Mash'al
1456

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo DiffP(Higher wins)Fair OddsTypical Matchup
050.0%2.00Evenly matched
5057.1%1.75Mid vs mid-lower
10064.0%1.56Top-8 vs bottom-8
15070.3%1.42Top-4 vs relegation
20076.0%1.32Leader vs bottom half
25080.8%1.24Leader vs bottom 3
30084.9%1.18Neftchi vs Mash'al

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

148715161546
NeftchiNasafAGMKBuxoroNavbahorLokomotiv

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#TeamEloPeakΔGPWDL
1Neftchi15361536+363210
2Nasaf15281528+283210
3AGMK15281528+283210
4Buxoro15271531+273210
5Navbahor15201520+203120
6Lokomotiv15191519+193120
7Qizilqum15131516+133120
8Surkhon15041504+43030
9Pakhtakor14971516-33111
10Bunyodkor14961500-43111
11Xorazm14871506-133021
12Kokand-191214811513-193102
13Sogdiana14731500-273012
14Andijan14711500-293012
15Dinamo Samarqand14661500-343012
16Mash'al14561500-443003

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:
Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:
E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:
R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:
Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:
Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

No upcoming matches with odds available. Please check back later.