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Super League Switzerland Prediction Models

2026/2027

Flat Betting Model

Matches w/ Odds

$10

Stake Per Bet

+16.83%

Best: Over 2.5

-26.53%

Worst: Draw Bet

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for Super League Switzerland. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

Market	Bets	Wins	Win %	Staked	Return	P&L	ROI	Best Str.	Worst Str.
Home Bet	59	27	45.76%	$590	$571.2	−$18.80	-3.19%	5	5
Draw Bet	59	10	16.95%	$590	$433.5	−$156.50	-26.53%	2	14
Away Bet	59	22	37.29%	$590	$610.8	+$20.80	+3.53%	3	8
Over 2.5	59	44	74.58%	$590	$689.3	+$99.30	+16.83%	11	2
Under 2.5	59	15	25.42%	$590	$433.8	−$156.20	-26.47%	2	11
BTTS Yes	59	38	64.41%	$590	$552.7	−$37.30	-6.32%	11	4
Home Favorite	39	21	53.85%	$390	$384	−$6.00	-1.54%	5	4
Away Underdog	15	3	20%	$150	$138.6	−$11.40	-7.6%	1	4
Favorite	59	33	55.93%	$590	$639.8	+$49.80	+8.44%	4	4
Underdog	59	15	25.42%	$590	$516.7	−$73.30	-12.42%	2	14

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

Market	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Home Bet	59	−$18.80	-3.19%	−$22.38	-35.77%	+$0.25	+0.04%
Draw Bet	59	−$156.50	-26.53%	$0.00	0%	−$171.95	-29.22%
Away Bet	59	+$20.80	+3.53%	−$66.70	-55.93%	+$88.73	+15.05%
Over 2.5	59	+$99.30	+16.83%	+$182.28	+16.47%	+$86.11	+14.58%
Under 2.5	59	−$156.20	-26.47%	$0.00	0%	−$155.73	-27.54%
BTTS Yes	59	−$37.30	-6.32%	−$23.61	-22.65%	−$36.68	-6.08%
Home Favorite	39	−$6.00	-1.54%	−$35.01	-36.54%	+$1.83	+0.47%
Away Underdog	15	−$11.40	-7.6%	−$12.39	-100%	+$22.28	+14.06%
Favorite	59	+$49.80	+8.44%	−$20.25	-8.08%	+$55.18	+9.27%
Underdog	59	−$73.30	-12.42%	−$26.36	-100%	−$34.83	-5.81%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

Team	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Lugano	10	9	90%	+$90.20	+90.2%
Zürich	10	5	50%	+$58.50	+58.5%
Sion	9	6	66.67%	+$37.30	+41.44%
Servette	10	5	50%	+$7.90	+7.9%
Young Boys	10	6	60%	+$5.20	+5.2%
Grasshoppers	9	2	22.22%	−$3.00	-3.33%
St.Gallen	10	4	40%	−$6.90	-6.9%
Thun	10	2	20%	−$24.10	-24.1%
Vaduz	10	3	30%	−$26.10	-26.1%
Basel	10	3	30%	−$27.40	-27.4%
Luzern	10	3	30%	−$45.60	-45.6%
Lausanne-Sport	10	1	10%	−$64.00	-64%

PPG Model

Teams

1.42

League Avg PPG

1.08

Home Factor

λ=0.85

WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for Super League Switzerland. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	46	26	56.52%	+$79.70	+17.33%
PPG Home Pick	29	16	55.17%	+$7.20	+2.48%
PPG Away Pick	17	10	58.82%	+$72.50	+42.65%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	47	26	55.32%	+$66.60	+14.17%
PPG Value (fair < market)	50	24	48%	+$13.30	+2.66%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:: Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:: Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:: Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:: Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:: Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	46	+$79.70	+17.33%	+$15.30	+22.4%	+$65.05	+14.4%
PPG Home Pick	29	+$7.20	+2.48%	+$7.33	+55.07%	+$9.42	+3.41%
PPG Away Pick	17	+$72.50	+42.65%	+$24.10	+42.21%	+$74.31	+39.72%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	47	+$66.60	+14.17%	+$20.82	+23.6%	+$52.40	+11.35%
PPG Value (fair < market)	50	+$13.30	+2.66%	+$0.52	+2.22%	+$39.11	+7.18%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds	Result	✓
25 Oct	Basel vs Grasshoppers	Basel	53.38%	1.87	0 – 0	✗
25 Oct	Sion vs Lausanne-Sport	Sion	79.68%	1.26	1 – 0	✓
25 Oct	Thun vs Lugano	Lugano	70.47%	1.42	2 – 3	✓
24 Oct	Young Boys vs St.Gallen	Young Boys	54.27%	1.84	2 – 0	✓
24 Oct	Servette vs Vaduz	Servette	53.74%	1.86	2 – 1	✓

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds
31 Oct	Grasshoppers vs Vaduz	Grasshoppers	40.39%	2.48
31 Oct	St.Gallen vs Servette	***	0%	0
31 Oct	Luzern vs Sion	🔒 Login or register for free to see predictions data.
01 Nov	Young Boys vs Zürich
01 Nov	Lausanne-Sport vs Thun

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

Team	PPG ↓	H-PPG	A-PPG	WPPG	vs Avg
1Lugano	2.8	2.6	3	2.81	+1.38
2Young Boys	2.2	2.2	2.2	2.33	+0.78
3Sion	2.2	2.17	2.25	2.07	+0.78
4Zürich	1.7	2	1.25	1.95	+0.28
5Servette	1.6	2	1.2	1.78	+0.18
6St.Gallen	1.3	1	1.5	1.31	-0.12
7Luzern	1.2	2.25	0.5	1.05	-0.22
8Basel	1.1	0.67	1.75	0.93	-0.32
9Vaduz	0.9	1.8	0	0.98	-0.52
10Grasshoppers	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.77	-0.62
11Thun	0.7	0.2	1.2	0.7	-0.72
12Lausanne-Sport	0.5	0.25	0.67	0.26	-0.92

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

Zürich

PPG: 1.7WPPG: 1.95Gap: ↑ 0.25

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Lausanne-Sport

PPG: 0.5WPPG: 0.26Gap: ↓ 0.24

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Servette

PPG: 1.6WPPG: 1.78Gap: ↑ 0.18

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Basel

PPG: 1.1WPPG: 0.93Gap: ↓ 0.17

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Luzern

PPG: 1.2WPPG: 1.05Gap: ↓ 0.15

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Worked Example — Basel vs Grasshoppers

P(Basel) = 1.11 / (1.11+0.78) × 1.08

= 0.587 × 1.08 = 53.38% → Fair odds 1.87

P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)

= 18.83% → Fair odds 5.31

P(Grasshoppers) = 1 − 53.38% − 18.83%

= 27.79% → Fair odds 3.6

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

1.89

Home xG (λ)

2.04

Away xG (λ)

3.93

Total E[goals]

1.93

League Avg Home

1.78

League Avg Away

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Grasshoppers vs Vaduz

30 Oct · Each cell shows the probability of that exact scoreline. Dixon-Coles corrected (ρ = -0.13). · Upcoming

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	3.0%	3.0%	4.1%	2.8%	1.4%	0.6%	0.2%
1	2.8%	8.6%	7.8%	5.3%	2.7%	1.1%	0.4%
2	3.5%	7.2%	7.4%	5.0%	2.5%	1.0%	0.3%
3	2.2%	4.5%	4.6%	3.1%	1.6%	0.7%	0.2%
4	1.1%	2.1%	2.2%	1.5%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%
5	0.4%	0.8%	0.8%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%
6	0.1%	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%

Most likely High Medium Low

Derived Markets

Home Win

35.64%

Fair odds: 2.81

Draw

23.01%

Fair odds: 4.35

Away Win

41.35%

Fair odds: 2.42

Over 0.597.03%/ Under 2.97%Fair: 1.03

Over 1.591.23%/ Under 8.77%Fair: 1.1

Over 2.574.94%/ Under 25.06%Fair: 1.33

Over 3.554.9%/ Under 45.1%Fair: 1.82

Over 4.535.21%/ Under 64.79%Fair: 2.84

BTTS Yes74.75%Fair: 1.34

BTTS No25.25%Fair: 3.96

Correct Score — Top 12

11-1

8.63%D

21-2

7.79%A

32-2

7.36%D

42-1

7.22%H

51-3

5.3%A

62-3

5.01%A

73-2

4.64%H

83-1

4.55%H

90-2

4.12%A

102-0

3.54%H

113-3

3.15%D

120-1

3.05%A

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Where the low-score correction adds value

Plain Poisson

P(0-0) = 2.0%

P(1-0) = 3.7%

P(0-1) = 4.0%

P(1-1) = 7.6%

✗ Underestimates 0-0, 1-0, 0-1

Dixon-Coles (ρ correction)

P(0-0) = 3.0% (+1.0%)

P(1-0) = 2.8% (-1.0%)

P(0-1) = 3.0% (-1.0%)

P(1-1) = 8.6% (+1.1%)

✓ Fixes low-score underestimation

💡 Why does this matter? Draws in football are dominated by 0-0 and 1-1. Plain Poisson underprices these by 15–20%. Dixon-Coles corrects this, generating better ROI on draw markets.

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Poisson/Dixon-Coles model — xG computed only from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	26	12	46.15%	+$20.20	+7.77%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	15	8	53.33%	+$4.00	+2.67%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	8	6	75%	+$57.00	+71.25%
DC Draw (>28%)	5	1	20%	−$11.50	-23%
DC Over 2.5 Value	15	11	73.33%	+$33.70	+22.47%
DC BTTS Value	9	6	66.67%	−$4.90	-5.44%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Dixon-Coles bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	26	+$20.20	+7.77%	−$24.58	-40.94%	+$14.31	+5.64%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	15	+$4.00	+2.67%	+$3.98	+154.86%	+$7.48	+4.83%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	8	+$57.00	+71.25%	−$9.83	-38.85%	+$54.88	+68%
DC Draw (>28%)	5	−$11.50	-23%	$0.00	0%	−$9.63	-20.01%
DC Over 2.5 Value	15	+$33.70	+22.47%	+$24.99	+44.57%	+$33.44	+21.54%
DC BTTS Value	9	−$4.90	-5.44%	−$5.59	-20.88%	−$4.68	-4.92%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

Team	Att (H)	Def (H)	Att (A)	Def (A)	H GP	A GP
Lugano	1.66	0.34	1.8	0.52	5	5
Young Boys	1.55	1.12	1.8	0.62	5	5
Sion	1.04	0.66	1.4	0.78	6	4
Vaduz	1.45	0.9	0.79	1.35	5	5
Zürich	1.12	1.03	0.84	1.3	6	4
Luzern	1.3	0.84	0.66	1.3	4	6
Basel	0.6	1.03	1.26	1.17	6	4
Servette	0.83	0.56	0.9	0.83	5	5
Thun	0.41	1.57	1.35	1.55	5	5
St.Gallen	0.78	1.26	0.84	0.95	4	6
Grasshoppers	0.73	1.46	0.56	1.24	5	5
Lausanne-Sport	0.52	1.4	0.19	0.52	4	6

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:: Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:: P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:: Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:: Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:: Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1Lugano

1617

2Young Boys

1583

3Sion

1555

4Zürich

1528

5Servette

1517

6Luzern

1493

7St.Gallen

1493

8Basel

1463

9Grasshoppers

1448

10Vaduz

1446

11Thun

1437

12Lausanne-Sport

1420

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo Diff	P(Higher wins)	Fair Odds	Typical Matchup
0	50.0%	2.00	Evenly matched
50	57.1%	1.75	Mid vs mid-lower
100	64.0%	1.56	Top-8 vs bottom-8
150	70.3%	1.42	Top-4 vs relegation
200	76.0%	1.32	Leader vs bottom half
250	80.8%	1.24	Leader vs bottom 3
300	84.9%	1.18	Lugano vs Lausanne-Sport

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

LuganoYoung BoysSionZürichServetteLuzern

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#	Team	Elo	Peak	Δ	GP	W	D	L
1	Lugano	1617	1617	+117	10	9	1	0
2	Young Boys	1583	1583	+83	10	6	4	0
3	Sion	1555	1569	+55	10	7	1	2
4	Zürich	1528	1528	+28	10	5	2	3
5	Servette	1517	1517	+17	10	5	1	4
6	Luzern	1493	1524	-7	10	3	3	4
7	St.Gallen	1493	1519	-7	10	4	1	5
8	Basel	1463	1517	-37	10	3	2	5
9	Grasshoppers	1448	1500	-52	10	2	2	6
10	Vaduz	1446	1500	-54	10	3	0	7
11	Thun	1437	1500	-63	10	2	1	7
12	Lausanne-Sport	1420	1519	-80	10	1	2	7

Elo Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	38	9	24%	−$46.80	-12.32%
Elo Favourite	47	23	49%	+$5.40	+1.15%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	3	3	100%	+$21.80	+72.67%
Elo Draw (>28%)	10	0	0%	−$100.00	-100%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	38	−$46.80	-12.32%	−$12.22	-57.32%	−$50.70	-12.61%
Elo Favourite	47	+$5.40	+1.15%	+$11.37	+78.2%	+$7.47	+1.53%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	3	+$21.80	+72.67%	$0.00	0%	+$24.48	+70.57%
Elo Draw (>28%)	10	−$100.00	-100%	$0.00	0%	−$99.08	-100%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:: Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:: E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:: R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:: Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:: Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

No upcoming matches with odds available. Please check back later.

Super League Switzerland Prediction Models

Flat Betting Model

Odds Range Filter

Market ROI Summary

Staking Plan Comparison

By Team Bets

PPG Model

Odds Range Filter

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

PPG Ratings — All Teams

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Worked Example — Basel vs Grasshoppers

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Grasshoppers vs Vaduz

Derived Markets

Correct Score — Top 12

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Team Attack & Defense Strength

How Poisson Predictions Work

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

Elo → Win Probability Table

Elo Rating History — Top 6

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Elo Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

How Elo Ratings Work

Value Scanner