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Super League Malaysia Prediction Models

2026/2027

Flat Betting Model

Matches w/ Odds

$10

Stake Per Bet

Best: Home Bet

Worst: Home Bet

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for Super League Malaysia. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

Market	Win %	Staked	Return	P&L	ROI
Home Bet	0%	$0	$0	$0.00	0%
Draw Bet	0%	$0	$0	$0.00	0%
Away Bet	0%	$0	$0	$0.00	0%
Over 2.5	0%	$0	$0	$0.00	0%
Under 2.5	0%	$0	$0	$0.00	0%
BTTS Yes	0%	$0	$0	$0.00	0%
Home Favorite	0%	$0	$0	$0.00	0%
Away Underdog	0%	$0	$0	$0.00	0%
Favorite	0%	$0	$0	$0.00	0%
Underdog	0%	$0	$0	$0.00	0%

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

Team	Win %	P&L	ROI
Johor Darul Ta'zim	0%	$0.00	0%
Kuala Lumpur City	0%	$0.00	0%
Negeri Sembilan	0%	$0.00	0%
Pulau Pinang	0%	$0.00	0%
Sabah	0%	$0.00	0%
Selangor	0%	$0.00	0%
Terengganu	0%	$0.00	0%
DPMM	0%	$0.00	0%
Kuching City	0%	$0.00	0%
Imigresen	0%	$0.00	0%
Melaka	0%	$0.00	0%
Kelantan Red Warrior	0%	$0.00	0%

PPG Model

Teams

1.5

League Avg PPG

1.08

Home Factor

λ=0.85

WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for Super League Malaysia. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds	Result	✓
18 Oct	Terengganu vs Johor Darul Ta'zim	Johor Darul Ta'zim	59.97%	1.67	0 – 3	✓
18 Oct	DPMM vs Kuching City	DPMM	41.05%	2.44	3 – 2	✓
17 Oct	Melaka vs Kuala Lumpur City	Melaka	42.59%	2.35	3 – 2	✓
17 Oct	Selangor vs Pulau Pinang	Selangor	74.36%	1.34	3 – 1	✓
17 Oct	Negeri Sembilan vs Sabah	Sabah	66.54%	1.5	1 – 1	✗

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds
22 Aug	Negeri Sembilan vs Kuala Lumpur City	Kuala Lumpur City	53.1%	1.88
30 Oct	DPMM vs Negeri Sembilan	***	0%	0
31 Oct	Sabah vs Terengganu	🔒 Login or register for free to see predictions data.
01 Nov	Pulau Pinang vs Melaka
01 Nov	Selangor vs Imigresen

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

Team	PPG ↓	H-PPG	A-PPG	WPPG	vs Avg
1Selangor	3	3	3	3	+1.50
2Johor Darul Ta'zim	3	3	3	3	+1.50
3DPMM	2.25	3	2	2.32	+0.75
4Melaka	1.8	3	1	1.99	+0.30
5Kuching City	1.8	0	2.25	1.5	+0.30
6Imigresen	1.67	1	2	1.78	+0.17
7Kuala Lumpur City	1.2	1.5	1	1.08	-0.30
8Terengganu	1	1	1	0.85	-0.50
9Sabah	1	1	1	0.89	-0.50
10Pulau Pinang	0.8	1.5	0.33	0.88	-0.70
11Negeri Sembilan	0.5	1	0	0.54	-1.00
12Kelantan Red Warrior	0	0	0	0	-1.50

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

Kuching City

PPG: 1.8WPPG: 1.5Gap: ↓ 0.30

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Melaka

PPG: 1.8WPPG: 1.99Gap: ↑ 0.19

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Terengganu

PPG: 1WPPG: 0.85Gap: ↓ 0.15

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Kuala Lumpur City

PPG: 1.2WPPG: 1.08Gap: ↓ 0.12

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Imigresen

PPG: 1.67WPPG: 1.78Gap: ↑ 0.11

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Worked Example — Terengganu vs Johor Darul Ta'zim

P(Terengganu) = 1.25 / (1.25+2.97) × 1.08

= 0.296 × 1.08 = 28.75% → Fair odds 3.48

P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)

= 11.28% → Fair odds 8.87

P(Johor Darul Ta'zim) = 1 − 28.75% − 11.28%

= 59.97% → Fair odds 1.67

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

1.49

Home xG (λ)

1.34

Away xG (λ)

2.83

Total E[goals]

1.78

League Avg Home

1.85

League Avg Away

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Negeri Sembilan vs Kuala Lumpur City

21 Aug · Each cell shows the probability of that exact scoreline. Dixon-Coles corrected (ρ = -0.13). · Upcoming

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7.4%	6.4%	5.3%	2.4%	0.8%	0.2%	0.1%
1	7.3%	13.3%	7.9%	3.5%	1.2%	0.3%	0.1%
2	6.6%	8.8%	5.9%	2.6%	0.9%	0.2%	0.1%
3	3.3%	4.4%	2.9%	1.3%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
4	1.2%	1.6%	1.1%	0.5%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
5	0.4%	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
6	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Most likely High Medium Low

Derived Markets

Home Win

39.29%

Fair odds: 2.55

Draw

28.15%

Fair odds: 3.55

Away Win

32.56%

Fair odds: 3.07

Over 0.592.56%/ Under 7.44%Fair: 1.08

Over 1.578.9%/ Under 21.1%Fair: 1.27

Over 2.553.7%/ Under 46.3%Fair: 1.86

Over 3.531.38%/ Under 68.62%Fair: 3.19

Over 4.515.59%/ Under 84.41%Fair: 6.42

BTTS Yes58.69%Fair: 1.7

BTTS No41.31%Fair: 2.42

Correct Score — Top 12

11-1

13.33%D

22-1

8.79%H

31-2

7.91%A

40-0

7.44%D

51-0

7.27%H

62-0

6.56%H

70-1

6.38%A

82-2

5.89%D

90-2

5.31%A

103-1

4.37%H

111-3

3.53%A

123-0

3.26%H

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Where the low-score correction adds value

Plain Poisson

P(0-0) = 5.9%

P(1-0) = 8.8%

P(0-1) = 7.9%

P(1-1) = 11.8%

✗ Underestimates 0-0, 1-0, 0-1

Dixon-Coles (ρ correction)

P(0-0) = 7.4% (+1.5%)

P(1-0) = 7.3% (-1.5%)

P(0-1) = 6.4% (-1.5%)

P(1-1) = 13.3% (+1.6%)

✓ Fixes low-score underestimation

💡 Why does this matter? Draws in football are dominated by 0-0 and 1-1. Plain Poisson underprices these by 15–20%. Dixon-Coles corrects this, generating better ROI on draw markets.

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

Team	Att (H)	Def (H)	Att (A)	Def (A)	H GP	A GP
Johor Darul Ta'zim	3.28	0.27	2.6	0.12	2	1
Selangor	1.57	0.41	1.76	0.51	3	2
Kuching City	1.14	0.36	1.69	0.44	1	4
Imigresen	0.81	0.9	1.35	1.17	1	2
Melaka	0.85	0.81	0.52	1.38	2	3
DPMM	0.96	1.44	0.62	0.88	1	3
Kuala Lumpur City	0.79	1.15	0.94	0.94	2	3
Kelantan Red Warrior	0.71	1.87	0.85	1.79	4	2
Sabah	0.64	0.93	0.72	1.01	3	1
Negeri Sembilan	0.89	0.77	0.81	1.14	2	2
Terengganu	0.55	0.92	1.07	0.61	4	1
Pulau Pinang	0.73	0.95	0.42	1	2	3

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:: Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:: P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:: Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:: Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:: Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1Selangor

1570

2Johor Darul Ta'zim

1542

3DPMM

1536

4Melaka

1523

5Kuching City

1518

6Imigresen

1514

7Kuala Lumpur City

1489

8Sabah

1479

9Terengganu

1476

10Pulau Pinang

1474

11Negeri Sembilan

1469

12Kelantan Red Warrior

1408

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo Diff	P(Higher wins)	Fair Odds	Typical Matchup
0	50.0%	2.00	Evenly matched
50	57.1%	1.75	Mid vs mid-lower
100	64.0%	1.56	Top-8 vs bottom-8
150	70.3%	1.42	Top-4 vs relegation
200	76.0%	1.32	Leader vs bottom half
250	80.8%	1.24	Leader vs bottom 3
300	84.9%	1.18	Selangor vs Kelantan Red Warrior

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

SelangorJohor Darul Ta'zimDPMMMelakaKuching CityImigresen

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#	Team	Elo	Peak	Δ	GP	W	D	L
1	Selangor	1570	1570	+70	5	5	0	0
2	Johor Darul Ta'zim	1542	1542	+42	3	3	0	0
3	DPMM	1536	1536	+36	4	3	0	1
4	Melaka	1523	1523	+23	5	3	0	2
5	Kuching City	1518	1554	+18	5	3	0	2
6	Imigresen	1514	1514	+14	3	1	2	0
7	Kuala Lumpur City	1489	1513	-11	5	2	0	3
8	Sabah	1479	1512	-21	4	1	1	2
9	Terengganu	1476	1513	-24	5	1	2	2
10	Pulau Pinang	1474	1500	-26	5	1	1	3
11	Negeri Sembilan	1469	1500	-31	4	0	2	2
12	Kelantan Red Warrior	1408	1500	-92	6	0	0	6

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:: Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:: E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:: R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:: Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:: Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

No upcoming matches with odds available. Please check back later.

Super League Malaysia Prediction Models

Flat Betting Model

Odds Range Filter

Market ROI Summary

By Team Bets

PPG Model

Odds Range Filter

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

PPG Ratings — All Teams

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Worked Example — Terengganu vs Johor Darul Ta'zim

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Negeri Sembilan vs Kuala Lumpur City

Derived Markets

Correct Score — Top 12

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Team Attack & Defense Strength

How Poisson Predictions Work

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

Elo → Win Probability Table

Elo Rating History — Top 6

Elo Ratings — All Teams

How Elo Ratings Work

Value Scanner