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Super League Greece Prediction Models

2026/2027

Flat Betting Model

Matches w/ Odds

$10

Stake Per Bet

+15.55%

Best: Home Favorite

-39.86%

Worst: Away Underdog

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for Super League Greece. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

Market	Bets	Wins	Win %	Staked	Return	P&L	ROI	Best Str.	Worst Str.
Home Bet	55	27	49.09%	$550	$511.6	−$38.40	-6.98%	6	7
Draw Bet	55	11	20%	$550	$436.2	−$113.80	-20.69%	2	9
Away Bet	55	17	30.91%	$550	$594.7	+$44.70	+8.13%	2	8
Over 2.5	55	28	50.91%	$550	$534.2	−$15.80	-2.87%	4	4
Under 2.5	55	27	49.09%	$550	$619.3	+$69.30	+12.6%	4	4
BTTS Yes	55	27	49.09%	$550	$538	−$12.00	-2.18%	4	4
Home Favorite	38	25	65.79%	$380	$439.1	+$59.10	+15.55%	6	3
Away Underdog	22	3	13.64%	$220	$132.3	−$87.70	-39.86%	1	9
Favorite	55	36	65.45%	$550	$619.5	+$69.50	+12.64%	8	3
Underdog	55	8	14.55%	$550	$486.8	−$63.20	-11.49%	2	18

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

Market	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Home Bet	55	−$38.40	-6.98%	−$62.12	-27.87%	+$27.89	+5.19%
Draw Bet	55	−$113.80	-20.69%	−$23.10	-100%	−$118.03	-20.67%
Away Bet	55	+$44.70	+8.13%	+$44.15	+36.44%	−$44.70	-7.06%
Over 2.5	55	−$15.80	-2.87%	−$9.15	-16.02%	−$16.49	-2.91%
Under 2.5	55	+$69.30	+12.6%	+$29.06	+9.66%	+$64.71	+11%
BTTS Yes	55	−$12.00	-2.18%	−$12.94	-55.02%	−$8.30	-1.48%
Home Favorite	38	+$59.10	+15.55%	+$29.23	+6.92%	+$36.93	+9.85%
Away Underdog	22	−$87.70	-39.86%	−$3.02	-100%	−$90.01	-39.28%
Favorite	55	+$69.50	+12.64%	+$38.42	+5.92%	+$46.25	+8.39%
Underdog	55	−$63.20	-11.49%	−$0.93	-6.92%	−$178.07	-29.3%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

Team	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
OFI	8	4	50%	+$143.70	+179.63%
Kalamata	8	3	37.5%	+$93.20	+116.5%
Panathinaikos	8	7	87.5%	+$29.70	+37.12%
Panaitolikos	8	3	37.5%	+$21.50	+26.88%
Aris	8	5	62.5%	+$15.60	+19.5%
Olympiakos Piraeus	8	6	75%	+$7.40	+9.25%
Kifisia	8	3	37.5%	+$6.00	+7.5%
PAOK	8	5	62.5%	−$4.80	-6%
AEK Athens	7	5	71.43%	−$6.00	-8.57%
Iraklis 1908	8	2	25%	−$13.70	-17.13%
Asteras Tripolis	8	1	12.5%	−$56.30	-70.37%
Atromitos FC	7	0	0%	−$70.00	-100%
Levadiakos	8	0	0%	−$80.00	-100%
Volos NFC	8	0	0%	−$80.00	-100%

PPG Model

Teams

1.4

League Avg PPG

1.08

Home Factor

λ=0.85

WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for Super League Greece. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	39	21	53.85%	+$3.70	+0.95%
PPG Home Pick	18	10	55.56%	−$19.30	-10.72%
PPG Away Pick	21	11	52.38%	+$23.00	+10.95%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	42	22	52.38%	−$9.90	-2.36%
PPG Value (fair < market)	46	17	36.96%	+$170.30	+37.02%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:: Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:: Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:: Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:: Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:: Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	39	+$3.70	+0.95%	+$10.34	+6.46%	−$14.25	-3.4%
PPG Home Pick	18	−$19.30	-10.72%	−$6.25	-100%	−$18.51	-8.76%
PPG Away Pick	21	+$23.00	+10.95%	+$4.21	+4.25%	+$2.74	+1.37%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	42	−$9.90	-2.36%	−$3.94	-2.2%	−$14.10	-3.14%
PPG Value (fair < market)	46	+$170.30	+37.02%	+$129.33	+21.75%	+$66.82	+16.31%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds	Result	✓
25 Oct	OFI vs PAOK	PAOK	45.4%	2.2	2 – 1	✗
25 Oct	Aris vs Atromitos FC	Aris	87.56%	1.14	3 – 1	✓
25 Oct	Volos NFC vs Panathinaikos	Panathinaikos	80.7%	1.24	0 – 1	✓
25 Oct	Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata	Olympiakos Piraeus	56.95%	1.76	5 – 0	✓
24 Oct	AEK Athens vs Panaitolikos	AEK Athens	60.53%	1.65	5 – 0	✓

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds
17 Oct	Atromitos FC vs AEK Athens	AEK Athens	84.04%	1.19
31 Oct	Kifisia vs Olympiakos Piraeus	***	0%	0
01 Nov	Levadiakos vs Aris	🔒 Login or register for free to see predictions data.
01 Nov	Panaitolikos vs OFI
01 Nov	Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

Team	PPG ↓	H-PPG	A-PPG	WPPG	vs Avg
1Panathinaikos	2.63	3	2.25	2.55	+1.23
2AEK Athens	2.43	3	1.67	2.53	+1.03
3Olympiakos Piraeus	2.38	2.25	2.5	2.49	+0.98
4Aris	2	2.5	1.5	2.15	+0.60
5PAOK	1.88	2.25	1.5	1.66	+0.48
6OFI	1.63	2.5	0.75	1.54	+0.23
7Kifisia	1.38	1.25	1.5	1.63	-0.02
8Kalamata	1.25	1.5	1	1.39	-0.15
9Iraklis 1908	1.13	1.33	1	1.03	-0.27
10Panaitolikos	1.13	1.5	0.75	0.71	-0.27
11Asteras Tripolis	0.75	1	0.33	0.89	-0.65
12Volos NFC	0.38	0.5	0.25	0.34	-1.02
13Levadiakos	0.38	0.25	0.5	0.49	-1.02
14Atromitos FC	0.29	0.33	0.25	0.25	-1.11

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

Panaitolikos

PPG: 1.13WPPG: 0.71Gap: ↓ 0.42

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Kifisia

PPG: 1.38WPPG: 1.63Gap: ↑ 0.25

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

PAOK

PPG: 1.88WPPG: 1.66Gap: ↓ 0.22

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Aris

PPG: 2WPPG: 2.15Gap: ↑ 0.15

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Asteras Tripolis

PPG: 0.75WPPG: 0.89Gap: ↑ 0.14

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Worked Example — OFI vs PAOK

P(OFI) = 1.43 / (1.43+2.14) × 1.08

= 0.401 × 1.08 = 36.69% → Fair odds 2.73

P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)

= 17.91% → Fair odds 5.58

P(PAOK) = 1 − 36.69% − 17.91%

= 45.4% → Fair odds 2.2

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

0.57

Home xG (λ)

2.18

Away xG (λ)

2.75

Total E[goals]

1.75

League Avg Home

1.02

League Avg Away

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Atromitos FC vs AEK Athens

16 Oct · Each cell shows the probability of that exact scoreline. Dixon-Coles corrected (ρ = -0.13). · Upcoming

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7.5%	13.0%	15.3%	11.1%	6.1%	2.6%	1.0%
1	2.6%	9.0%	8.7%	6.3%	3.5%	1.5%	0.6%
2	1.1%	2.3%	2.5%	1.8%	1.0%	0.4%	0.2%
3	0.2%	0.4%	0.5%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%
4	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Most likely High Medium Low

Derived Markets

Home Win

7.3%

Fair odds: 13.71

Market: 7.50 (13.3%)

Draw

19.38%

Fair odds: 5.16

Market: 4.33 (23.1%)

Away Win

73.33%

Fair odds: 1.36

Market: 1.38 (72.5%)

Over 0.592.52%/ Under 7.48%Fair: 1.08

Over 1.576.9%/ Under 23.1%Fair: 1.3

Over 2.551.51%/ Under 48.49%Fair: 1.94

Over 3.529.19%/ Under 70.81%Fair: 3.43

Over 4.513.85%/ Under 86.15%Fair: 7.22

BTTS Yes39.54%Fair: 2.53

BTTS No60.46%Fair: 1.65

Correct Score — Top 12

10-2

15.3%A

20-1

13%A

30-3

11.12%A

41-1

9.04%D

51-2

8.72%A

60-0

7.48%D

71-3

6.34%A

80-4

6.06%A

91-4

3.45%A

100-5

2.64%A

111-0

2.63%H

122-2

2.49%D

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Where the low-score correction adds value

Plain Poisson

P(0-0) = 6.4%

P(1-0) = 3.6%

P(0-1) = 13.9%

P(1-1) = 7.9%

✗ Underestimates 0-0, 1-0, 0-1

Dixon-Coles (ρ correction)

P(0-0) = 7.5% (+1.1%)

P(1-0) = 2.6% (-1.0%)

P(0-1) = 13.0% (-0.9%)

P(1-1) = 9.0% (+1.1%)

✓ Fixes low-score underestimation

💡 Why does this matter? Draws in football are dominated by 0-0 and 1-1. Plain Poisson underprices these by 15–20%. Dixon-Coles corrects this, generating better ROI on draw markets.

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Poisson/Dixon-Coles model — xG computed only from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	20	6	30%	−$55.60	-27.8%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	13	8	61.54%	+$22.90	+17.62%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	4	3	75%	+$0.90	+2.25%
DC Draw (>28%)	10	1	10%	−$70.00	-70%
DC Over 2.5 Value	4	4	100%	+$33.60	+84%
DC BTTS Value	3	3	100%	+$28.00	+93.33%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Dixon-Coles bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	20	−$55.60	-27.8%	−$19.46	-81.05%	−$26.97	-15.77%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	13	+$22.90	+17.62%	+$7.96	+24.77%	+$7.53	+4.88%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	4	+$0.90	+2.25%	$0.00	0%	+$9.31	+22.4%
DC Draw (>28%)	10	−$70.00	-70%	−$0.51	-100%	−$58.87	-61.74%
DC Over 2.5 Value	4	+$33.60	+84%	$0.00	0%	+$33.98	+82.66%
DC BTTS Value	3	+$28.00	+93.33%	$0.00	0%	+$26.57	+90.28%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

Team	Att (H)	Def (H)	Att (A)	Def (A)	H GP	A GP
AEK Athens	2.43	0	1.31	0.57	4	3
Panathinaikos	2	0.74	0.98	0.14	4	4
PAOK	1.29	0.98	1.72	1	4	4
Kalamata	1.29	1.96	0.98	1.29	4	4
Aris	1.14	0.98	1.23	1.43	4	4
OFI	1.14	0.74	1.23	1.29	4	4
Olympiakos Piraeus	1	0.25	1.23	0.14	4	4
Kifisia	0.57	0.74	1.47	1.14	4	4
Iraklis 1908	0.95	1.31	0.78	0.8	3	5
Panaitolikos	0.86	1.47	0.49	1.43	4	4
Asteras Tripolis	0.34	0.98	1.31	1.9	5	3
Atromitos FC	0.57	1.63	0.74	1	3	4
Volos NFC	0.43	1.23	0.74	1.14	4	4
Levadiakos	0	1.23	0	0.86	4	4

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:: Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:: P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:: Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:: Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:: Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1Panathinaikos

1580

2Olympiakos Piraeus

1571

3AEK Athens

1566

4Aris

1541

5PAOK

1525

6OFI

1515

7Kifisia

1503

8Kalamata

1496

9Iraklis 1908

1484

10Panaitolikos

1469

11Asteras Tripolis

1457

12Levadiakos

1432

13Volos NFC

1431

14Atromitos FC

1430

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo Diff	P(Higher wins)	Fair Odds	Typical Matchup
0	50.0%	2.00	Evenly matched
50	57.1%	1.75	Mid vs mid-lower
100	64.0%	1.56	Top-8 vs bottom-8
150	70.3%	1.42	Panathinaikos vs Atromitos FC
200	76.0%	1.32	Leader vs bottom half
250	80.8%	1.24	Leader vs bottom 3
300	84.9%	1.18	Panathinaikos vs Atromitos FC

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

PanathinaikosOlympiakos PiraeusAEK AthensArisPAOKOFI

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#	Team	Elo	Peak	Δ	GP	W	D	L
1	Panathinaikos	1580	1580	+80	8	7	0	1
2	Olympiakos Piraeus	1571	1571	+71	8	6	1	1
3	AEK Athens	1566	1566	+66	7	5	2	0
4	Aris	1541	1541	+41	8	5	1	2
5	PAOK	1525	1550	+25	8	5	0	3
6	OFI	1515	1532	+15	8	4	1	3
7	Kifisia	1503	1503	+3	8	3	2	3
8	Kalamata	1496	1506	-4	8	3	1	4
9	Iraklis 1908	1484	1516	-16	8	2	3	3
10	Panaitolikos	1469	1541	-31	8	3	0	5
11	Asteras Tripolis	1457	1500	-43	8	1	3	4
12	Levadiakos	1432	1500	-68	8	0	3	5
13	Volos NFC	1431	1500	-69	8	0	3	5
14	Atromitos FC	1430	1500	-70	7	0	2	5

Elo Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	35	6	17%	−$146.20	-41.77%
Elo Favourite	41	21	51%	−$14.30	-3.49%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	5	3	60%	−$10.00	-20%
Elo Draw (>28%)	13	2	15%	−$21.70	-16.69%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	35	−$146.20	-41.77%	−$27.23	-100%	−$98.63	-26.45%
Elo Favourite	41	−$14.30	-3.49%	−$8.51	-18.83%	−$5.39	-1.16%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	5	−$10.00	-20%	$0.00	0%	−$19.18	-30.56%
Elo Draw (>28%)	13	−$21.70	-16.69%	−$13.27	-100%	−$42.93	-28.81%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:: Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:: E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:: R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:: Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:: Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

No upcoming matches with odds available. Please check back later.

Super League Greece Prediction Models

Flat Betting Model

Odds Range Filter

Market ROI Summary

Staking Plan Comparison

By Team Bets

PPG Model

Odds Range Filter

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

PPG Ratings — All Teams

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Worked Example — OFI vs PAOK

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Atromitos FC vs AEK Athens

Derived Markets

Correct Score — Top 12

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Team Attack & Defense Strength

How Poisson Predictions Work

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

Elo → Win Probability Table

Elo Rating History — Top 6

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Elo Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

How Elo Ratings Work

Value Scanner