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Serie A Italy Prediction Models

2026/2027

Flat Betting Model

Matches w/ Odds

$10

Stake Per Bet

+21.32%

Best: Away Underdog

-38.86%

Worst: Draw Bet

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for Serie A Italy. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

Market	Bets	Wins	Win %	Staked	Return	P&L	ROI	Best Str.	Worst Str.
Home Bet	83	39	46.99%	$830	$854.9	+$24.90	+3%	7	6
Draw Bet	83	14	16.87%	$830	$507.5	−$322.50	-38.86%	3	23
Away Bet	83	30	36.14%	$830	$836.2	+$6.20	+0.75%	5	9
Over 2.5	83	50	60.24%	$830	$953.1	+$123.10	+14.83%	7	5
Under 2.5	83	33	39.76%	$830	$787	−$43.00	-5.18%	5	7
BTTS Yes	83	48	57.83%	$830	$884.7	+$54.70	+6.59%	8	4
Home Favorite	49	32	65.31%	$490	$557.7	+$67.70	+13.82%	6	3
Away Underdog	34	9	26.47%	$340	$412.5	+$72.50	+21.32%	2	7
Favorite	83	52	62.65%	$830	$949.3	+$119.30	+14.37%	5	4
Underdog	83	17	20.48%	$830	$741.8	−$88.20	-10.63%	2	15

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

Market	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Home Bet	83	+$24.90	+3%	−$26.45	-13.34%	+$82.49	+9.84%
Draw Bet	83	−$322.50	-38.86%	−$2.70	-100%	−$277.45	-32.46%
Away Bet	83	+$6.20	+0.75%	−$54.69	-16.03%	+$51.40	+5.87%
Over 2.5	83	+$123.10	+14.83%	+$19.98	+12.91%	+$128.71	+14.72%
Under 2.5	83	−$43.00	-5.18%	−$34.50	-17.25%	−$63.22	-7.2%
BTTS Yes	83	+$54.70	+6.59%	−$6.66	-5.47%	+$68.23	+7.76%
Home Favorite	49	+$67.70	+13.82%	+$9.46	+7.36%	+$84.04	+16.93%
Away Underdog	34	+$72.50	+21.32%	−$12.60	-8.46%	+$65.91	+20.12%
Favorite	83	+$119.30	+14.37%	+$18.70	+5.62%	+$135.80	+16.42%
Underdog	83	−$88.20	-10.63%	−$45.98	-51.63%	−$63.32	-6.93%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

Team	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Lazio	9	8	88.89%	+$121.90	+135.44%
Frosinone	8	4	50%	+$95.30	+119.13%
Cagliari	9	4	44.44%	+$63.50	+70.56%
Lecce	8	3	37.5%	+$33.50	+41.88%
Torino	9	4	44.44%	+$27.30	+30.33%
Como	9	6	66.67%	+$26.00	+28.89%
Internazionale	8	7	87.5%	+$17.70	+22.13%
Roma	9	6	66.67%	+$5.00	+5.56%
Milan	8	5	62.5%	+$1.10	+1.38%
Sassuolo	9	2	22.22%	−$9.60	-10.67%
Juventus FC	8	4	50%	−$19.50	-24.37%
Monza	8	2	25%	−$24.60	-30.75%
Genoa	8	2	25%	−$25.40	-31.75%
Napoli	8	3	37.5%	−$27.10	-33.87%
Atalanta	8	3	37.5%	−$29.20	-36.5%
Venezia	8	1	12.5%	−$32.50	-40.62%
Bologna	8	2	25%	−$34.40	-43%
Parma	8	1	12.5%	−$47.60	-59.5%
Udinese	8	1	12.5%	−$55.00	-68.75%
Fiorentina	8	1	12.5%	−$55.30	-69.12%

PPG Model

Teams

1.4

League Avg PPG

1.08

Home Factor

λ=0.85

WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for Serie A Italy. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	77	52	67.53%	+$311.30	+40.43%
PPG Home Pick	38	30	78.95%	+$143.90	+37.87%
PPG Away Pick	39	22	56.41%	+$167.40	+42.92%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	80	54	67.5%	+$369.80	+46.22%
PPG Value (fair < market)	82	35	42.68%	+$105.90	+12.91%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:: Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:: Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:: Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:: Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:: Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	77	+$311.30	+40.43%	+$630.05	+22.93%	+$279.67	+37.63%
PPG Home Pick	38	+$143.90	+37.87%	+$156.10	+33.67%	+$172.86	+45.59%
PPG Away Pick	39	+$167.40	+42.92%	+$242.21	+28.46%	+$97.05	+26.05%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	80	+$369.80	+46.22%	+$1289.04	+28.12%	+$303.52	+39.34%
PPG Value (fair < market)	82	+$105.90	+12.91%	−$19.00	-7.33%	+$119.96	+13.06%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds	Result	✓
27 Oct	Torino vs Como	Como	40.64%	2.46	1 – 3	✓
27 Oct	Roma vs Cagliari	Roma	52.45%	1.91	4 – 2	✓
27 Oct	Sassuolo vs Lazio	Lazio	64.01%	1.56	2 – 6	✓
25 Oct	Udinese vs Milan	Milan	71.66%	1.4	0 – 2	✓
25 Oct	Lecce vs Juventus FC	Lecce	39.92%	2.5	0 – 2	✗

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds
28 Oct	Venezia vs Internazionale	Internazionale	83.43%	1.2
28 Oct	Parma vs Udinese	***	0%	0
28 Oct	Milan vs Bologna	🔒 Login or register for free to see predictions data.
28 Oct	Monza vs Napoli
28 Oct	Genoa vs Juventus FC

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

Team	PPG ↓	H-PPG	A-PPG	WPPG	vs Avg
1Lazio	2.78	2.5	3	2.83	+1.38
2Internazionale	2.75	3	2.33	2.75	+1.35
3Roma	2.33	2.6	2	2.22	+0.93
4Milan	2.25	3	1.8	2.3	+0.85
5Como	2.22	2.33	2.17	2.35	+0.82
6Frosinone	1.75	2.25	1.25	1.73	+0.35
7Juventus FC	1.75	1.75	1.75	1.67	+0.35
8Cagliari	1.44	1	1.8	1.07	+0.04
9Torino	1.44	1.2	1.75	1.6	+0.04
10Napoli	1.38	1.75	1	1.3	-0.02
11Atalanta	1.25	2	0	1.08	-0.15
12Lecce	1.13	0.75	1.5	1.05	-0.27
13Bologna	1	0.5	1.5	1.28	-0.40
14Sassuolo	0.89	1.75	0.2	0.64	-0.51
15Monza	0.88	2	0.2	1	-0.52
16Genoa	0.88	1.4	0	1.17	-0.52
17Udinese	0.5	0.2	1	0.3	-0.90
18Parma	0.5	1	0	0.47	-0.90
19Fiorentina	0.5	0.25	0.75	0.45	-0.90
20Venezia	0.38	0.75	0	0.53	-1.02

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

Cagliari

PPG: 1.44WPPG: 1.07Gap: ↓ 0.37

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Genoa

PPG: 0.88WPPG: 1.17Gap: ↑ 0.29

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Bologna

PPG: 1WPPG: 1.28Gap: ↑ 0.28

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Sassuolo

PPG: 0.89WPPG: 0.64Gap: ↓ 0.25

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Udinese

PPG: 0.5WPPG: 0.3Gap: ↓ 0.20

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Worked Example — Torino vs Como

P(Torino) = 1.63 / (1.63+2.13) × 1.08

= 0.434 × 1.08 = 38.85% → Fair odds 2.57

P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)

= 20.51% → Fair odds 4.88

P(Como) = 1 − 38.85% − 20.51%

= 40.64% → Fair odds 2.46

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

0.73

Home xG (λ)

2.85

Away xG (λ)

3.58

Total E[goals]

1.6

League Avg Home

1.52

League Avg Away

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Venezia vs Internazionale

27 Oct · Each cell shows the probability of that exact scoreline. Dixon-Coles corrected (ρ = -0.13). · Upcoming

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	3.6%	7.4%	11.6%	11.1%	7.9%	4.5%	2.1%
1	1.3%	6.7%	8.5%	8.1%	5.8%	3.3%	1.6%
2	0.8%	2.2%	3.1%	2.9%	2.1%	1.2%	0.6%
3	0.2%	0.5%	0.8%	0.7%	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%
4	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Most likely High Medium Low

Derived Markets

Home Win

6.2%

Fair odds: 16.12

Market: 8.50 (11.8%)

Draw

14.29%

Fair odds: 7

Market: 5.00 (20.0%)

Away Win

79.51%

Fair odds: 1.26

Market: 1.36 (73.5%)

Over 0.596.36%/ Under 3.64%Fair: 1.04

Over 1.587.66%/ Under 12.34%Fair: 1.14

Over 2.568.54%/ Under 31.46%Fair: 1.46

Over 3.546.64%/ Under 53.36%Fair: 2.14

Over 4.527.04%/ Under 72.96%Fair: 3.7

BTTS Yes49.5%Fair: 2.02

BTTS No50.5%Fair: 1.98

Correct Score — Top 12

10-2

11.63%A

20-3

11.05%A

31-2

8.49%A

41-3

8.06%A

50-4

7.87%A

60-1

7.39%A

71-1

6.73%D

81-4

5.75%A

90-5

4.49%A

100-0

3.64%D

111-5

3.28%A

122-2

3.1%D

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Where the low-score correction adds value

Plain Poisson

P(0-0) = 2.8%

P(1-0) = 2.0%

P(0-1) = 7.9%

P(1-1) = 5.8%

✗ Underestimates 0-0, 1-0, 0-1

Dixon-Coles (ρ correction)

P(0-0) = 3.6% (+0.9%)

P(1-0) = 1.3% (-0.7%)

P(0-1) = 7.4% (-0.6%)

P(1-1) = 6.7% (+0.9%)

✓ Fixes low-score underestimation

💡 Why does this matter? Draws in football are dominated by 0-0 and 1-1. Plain Poisson underprices these by 15–20%. Dixon-Coles corrects this, generating better ROI on draw markets.

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Poisson/Dixon-Coles model — xG computed only from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	65	22	33.85%	−$127.20	-19.57%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	18	17	94.44%	+$92.30	+51.28%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	23	13	56.52%	+$0.50	+0.22%
DC Draw (>28%)	34	9	26.47%	−$13.00	-3.82%
DC Over 2.5 Value	25	15	60%	+$50.80	+20.32%
DC BTTS Value	17	10	58.82%	+$12.30	+7.24%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Dixon-Coles bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	65	−$127.20	-19.57%	−$21.83	-56.75%	−$1.00	-0.13%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	18	+$92.30	+51.28%	+$223.37	+56.33%	+$85.12	+44.82%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	23	+$0.50	+0.22%	−$33.73	-78.75%	+$16.34	+7.14%
DC Draw (>28%)	34	−$13.00	-3.82%	−$1.49	-71.63%	−$14.68	-4.25%
DC Over 2.5 Value	25	+$50.80	+20.32%	+$9.33	+9.18%	+$45.75	+17.09%
DC BTTS Value	17	+$12.30	+7.24%	−$3.08	-96.25%	+$20.24	+11.14%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

Team	Att (H)	Def (H)	Att (A)	Def (A)	H GP	A GP
Internazionale	2.12	0.89	1.55	0.71	5	3
Roma	1.69	0.63	1.38	0.6	5	4
Lazio	1.2	0.82	1.64	0.41	4	5
Frosinone	1.27	0.88	1.21	1.17	4	4
Milan	1.35	0.7	1.09	0.62	3	5
Como	1.14	0.45	1.43	0.73	3	6
Monza	1.34	0.94	0.93	1.63	3	5
Atalanta	1.32	0.99	0.93	1.16	5	3
Napoli	1.29	0.82	0.93	0.77	4	4
Torino	0.91	1.32	1.03	0.89	5	4
Sassuolo	1.18	1.49	0.82	1.42	4	5
Juventus FC	1	0.68	1.06	0.67	4	4
Udinese	0.33	1.14	1.39	1.5	5	3
Lecce	0.6	1.46	0.78	0.78	4	4
Fiorentina	0.6	1.31	0.97	1.44	4	4
Bologna	0.68	1.12	0.9	0.63	4	4
Cagliari	0.51	0.79	0.8	1.15	4	5
Genoa	0.68	1.07	0.55	1.04	5	3
Venezia	0.65	1.21	0.66	1.27	4	4
Parma	0.53	1.04	0.4	1.23	4	4

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:: Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:: P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:: Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:: Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:: Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1Lazio

1607

2Internazionale

1590

3Roma

1579

4Como

1575

5Milan

1573

6Juventus FC

1530

7Frosinone

1526

8Torino

1499

9Napoli

1498

10Cagliari

1496

11Bologna

1481

12Atalanta

1480

13Monza

1470

14Lecce

1468

15Sassuolo

1463

16Genoa

1458

17Parma

1435

18Fiorentina

1430

19Udinese

1425

20Venezia

1419

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo Diff	P(Higher wins)	Fair Odds	Typical Matchup
0	50.0%	2.00	Evenly matched
50	57.1%	1.75	Mid vs mid-lower
100	64.0%	1.56	Top-8 vs bottom-8
150	70.3%	1.42	Top-4 vs relegation
200	76.0%	1.32	Leader vs bottom half
250	80.8%	1.24	Leader vs bottom 3
300	84.9%	1.18	Lazio vs Venezia

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

LazioInternazionaleRomaComoMilanJuventus FC

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#	Team	Elo	Peak	Δ	GP	W	D	L
1	Lazio	1607	1607	+107	9	8	1	0
2	Internazionale	1590	1590	+90	8	7	1	0
3	Roma	1579	1579	+79	9	6	3	0
4	Como	1575	1575	+75	9	6	2	1
5	Milan	1573	1573	+73	8	5	3	0
6	Juventus FC	1530	1530	+30	8	4	2	2
7	Frosinone	1526	1527	+26	8	4	2	2
8	Torino	1499	1516	-1	9	4	1	4
9	Napoli	1498	1519	-2	8	3	2	3
10	Cagliari	1496	1549	-4	9	4	1	4
11	Bologna	1481	1500	-19	8	2	2	4
12	Atalanta	1480	1525	-20	8	3	1	4
13	Monza	1470	1500	-30	8	2	1	5
14	Lecce	1468	1519	-32	8	3	0	5
15	Sassuolo	1463	1516	-37	9	2	2	5
16	Genoa	1458	1500	-42	8	2	1	5
17	Parma	1435	1500	-65	8	1	1	6
18	Fiorentina	1430	1500	-70	8	1	1	6
19	Udinese	1425	1516	-75	8	1	1	6
20	Venezia	1419	1500	-81	8	1	0	7

Elo Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	55	14	25%	+$39.10	+7.11%
Elo Favourite	63	34	54%	+$112.10	+17.79%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	6	6	100%	+$24.30	+40.5%
Elo Draw (>28%)	25	8	32%	+$43.20	+17.28%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	55	+$39.10	+7.11%	−$24.78	-22.15%	+$64.18	+12.07%
Elo Favourite	63	+$112.10	+17.79%	−$6.83	-3.14%	+$94.75	+13.75%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	6	+$24.30	+40.5%	+$8.25	+33%	+$22.03	+38.33%
Elo Draw (>28%)	25	+$43.20	+17.28%	−$14.51	-30.97%	+$44.28	+17.94%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:: Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:: E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:: R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:: Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:: Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

Upcoming Fixtures — Value Identified by Each Model Independently

Min EV threshold2%

Show models

5Value bets found

5Multi-model consensus

+9.9%Avg EV found

Consensus across 3 models · Odds: H 8.50 · D 5.00 · A 1.36

Home Win

12.1%

Mkt implied: 11.8%

EV +0.3%

Draw

15.5%

Mkt implied: 20.0%

EV -4.5%

Away Win

72.5%

Mkt implied: 73.5%

EV -1.0%

PPG: H 5% D 10% A 85%Dixon-Coles: H 4% D 14% A 82%Elo: H 27% D 23% A 50%

Consensus across 0 model · Odds: H 0.00 · A 0.00

Home Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Away Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Consensus across 0 model · Odds: H 0.00 · A 0.00

Home Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Away Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Consensus across 0 model · Odds: H 0.00 · A 0.00

Home Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Away Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Consensus across 0 model · Odds: H 0.00 · A 0.00

Home Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Away Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Consensus across 0 model · Odds: H 0.00 · A 0.00

Home Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Away Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Consensus across 0 model · Odds: H 0.00 · A 0.00

Home Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Away Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

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Serie A Italy Prediction Models

Flat Betting Model

Odds Range Filter

Market ROI Summary

Staking Plan Comparison

By Team Bets

PPG Model

Odds Range Filter

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

PPG Ratings — All Teams

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Worked Example — Torino vs Como

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Venezia vs Internazionale

Derived Markets

Correct Score — Top 12

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Team Attack & Defense Strength

How Poisson Predictions Work

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

Elo → Win Probability Table

Elo Rating History — Top 6

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Elo Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

How Elo Ratings Work

Value Scanner

Upcoming Fixtures — Value Identified by Each Model Independently