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Serie A Brazil Prediction Models

2026

Flat Betting Model

124

Matches w/ Odds

$10

Stake Per Bet

+12%

Best: Under 2.5

-21.73%

Worst: Underdog

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for Serie A Brazil. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

Market	Bets	Wins	Win %	Staked	Return	P&L	ROI	Best Str.	Worst Str.
Home Bet	124	58	46.77%	$1240	$1157.6	−$82.40	-6.65%	5	5
Draw Bet	124	36	29.03%	$1240	$1320.4	+$80.40	+6.48%	4	10
Away Bet	124	30	24.19%	$1240	$1040.2	−$199.80	-16.11%	3	15
Over 2.5	110	58	52.73%	$1100	$1158.4	+$58.40	+5.31%	7	6
Under 2.5	110	52	47.27%	$1100	$1232	+$132.00	+12%	6	7
BTTS Yes	124	74	59.68%	$1240	$1383.5	+$143.50	+11.57%	7	6
Home Favorite	97	53	54.64%	$970	$977.6	+$7.60	+0.78%	9	4
Away Underdog	77	15	19.48%	$770	$666.5	−$103.50	-13.44%	2	22
Favorite	124	64	51.61%	$1240	$1227.3	−$12.70	-1.02%	7	5
Underdog	124	24	19.35%	$1240	$970.5	−$269.50	-21.73%	3	25

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

Market	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Home Bet	124	−$82.40	-6.65%	−$43.11	-51.78%	−$29.73	-2.38%
Draw Bet	124	+$80.40	+6.48%	−$50.44	-20.67%	+$92.78	+7.53%
Away Bet	124	−$199.80	-16.11%	−$63.42	-64.18%	−$123.52	-9.74%
Over 2.5	110	+$58.40	+5.31%	+$21.54	+13.15%	+$35.09	+3.05%
Under 2.5	110	+$132.00	+12%	+$28.15	+6.81%	+$133.20	+11.39%
BTTS Yes	124	+$143.50	+11.57%	+$17.22	+5.14%	+$138.86	+10.98%
Home Favorite	97	+$7.60	+0.78%	−$12.60	-21.34%	+$20.29	+2.06%
Away Underdog	77	−$103.50	-13.44%	−$49.20	-47.77%	−$40.58	-5.35%
Favorite	124	−$12.70	-1.02%	+$7.08	+10.37%	+$1.52	+0.12%
Underdog	124	−$269.50	-21.73%	−$44.04	-50.66%	−$215.54	-17.27%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

Team	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Santos	12	7	58.33%	+$135.10	+112.58%
Cruzeiro	12	9	75%	+$92.20	+76.83%
Chapecoense	10	3	30%	+$76.00	+76%
Atlético Mineiro	13	7	53.85%	+$49.90	+38.38%
Flamengo	14	10	71.43%	+$13.30	+9.5%
Vasco da Gama	11	5	45.45%	+$5.10	+4.64%
Palmeiras	13	7	53.85%	−$2.70	-2.08%
Fluminense	13	5	38.46%	−$10.60	-8.15%
Bahia	13	5	38.46%	−$11.10	-8.54%
Athletico Paranaense	11	3	27.27%	−$15.20	-13.82%
São Paulo	13	5	38.46%	−$27.40	-21.08%
Mirassol	13	4	30.77%	−$34.90	-26.85%
Coritiba	12	3	25%	−$33.40	-27.83%
Botafogo	12	3	25%	−$40.30	-33.58%
Grêmio	13	3	23.08%	−$55.30	-42.54%
Internacional	12	3	25%	−$53.70	-44.75%
Vitória	13	3	23.08%	−$67.30	-51.77%
Corinthians	13	1	7.69%	−$92.00	-70.77%
Remo	13	1	7.69%	−$107.70	-82.85%
RB Bragantino	12	1	8.33%	−$102.20	-85.17%

PPG Model

Teams

1.36

League Avg PPG

1.08

Home Factor

λ=0.85

WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for Serie A Brazil. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	120	54	45%	−$57.30	-4.78%
PPG Home Pick	61	36	59.02%	−$2.60	-0.43%
PPG Away Pick	59	18	30.51%	−$54.70	-9.27%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	120	59	49.17%	+$156.20	+13.02%
PPG Value (fair < market)	124	43	34.68%	−$204.30	-16.48%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:: Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:: Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:: Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:: Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:: Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	120	−$57.30	-4.78%	−$30.57	-27.35%	−$18.11	-1.5%
PPG Home Pick	61	−$2.60	-0.43%	−$14.83	-41.59%	+$13.74	+2.21%
PPG Away Pick	59	−$54.70	-9.27%	−$16.62	-44.16%	−$69.23	-11.57%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	120	+$156.20	+13.02%	+$15.12	+3.33%	+$157.32	+12.83%
PPG Value (fair < market)	124	−$204.30	-16.48%	−$76.18	-63.19%	−$72.05	-5.79%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds	Result	✓
26 Oct	Flamengo vs Atlético Mineiro	Flamengo	51.58%	1.94	3 – 2	✓
26 Oct	Coritiba vs Grêmio	Coritiba	49.89%	2	0 – 1	✗
25 Oct	Santos vs Bahia	Santos	41.48%	2.41	1 – 1	✗
24 Oct	Chapecoense vs Fluminense	Fluminense	63.13%	1.58	2 – 1	✗
24 Oct	Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino	Palmeiras	58.34%	1.71	2 – 0	✓

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds
29 Jul	Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama	Vasco da Gama	47.13%	2.12
28 Oct	Santos vs Palmeiras	***	0%	0
28 Oct	RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense	🔒 Login or register for free to see predictions data.
28 Oct	Fluminense vs Internacional
29 Oct	Remo vs Botafogo

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

Team	PPG ↓	H-PPG	A-PPG	WPPG	vs Avg
1Flamengo	2.19	2.44	1.94	2.54	+0.83
2Palmeiras	2.16	2.44	1.88	2.33	+0.80
3Cruzeiro	1.74	1.94	1.53	2.37	+0.38
4Athletico Paranaense	1.65	2	1.27	1.34	+0.29
5Fluminense	1.59	2.25	0.94	1.2	+0.23
6Atlético Mineiro	1.56	2.19	0.94	1.72	+0.20
7Bahia	1.56	1.69	1.44	1.4	+0.20
8Santos	1.44	1.5	1.38	1.75	+0.08
9São Paulo	1.34	2.06	0.63	1.55	-0.02
10Coritiba	1.23	1.27	1.19	0.73	-0.13
11RB Bragantino	1.23	1.5	1	0.78	-0.13
12Vasco da Gama	1.23	1.69	0.73	1.58	-0.13
13Botafogo	1.23	1.5	0.93	0.93	-0.13
14Vitória	1.19	2	0.38	1.07	-0.17
15Mirassol	1.16	1.59	0.67	1.39	-0.20
16Internacional	1.09	1.25	0.94	1.29	-0.27
17Grêmio	1.06	1.63	0.5	1.1	-0.30
18Corinthians	1.03	1.19	0.88	0.48	-0.33
19Remo	0.81	1	0.63	0.6	-0.55
20Chapecoense	0.7	1	0.44	0.99	-0.66

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

Cruzeiro

PPG: 1.74WPPG: 2.37Gap: ↑ 0.63

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Corinthians

PPG: 1.03WPPG: 0.48Gap: ↓ 0.55

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Coritiba

PPG: 1.23WPPG: 0.73Gap: ↓ 0.50

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

RB Bragantino

PPG: 1.23WPPG: 0.78Gap: ↓ 0.45

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Fluminense

PPG: 1.59WPPG: 1.2Gap: ↓ 0.39

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Worked Example — Flamengo vs Atlético Mineiro

P(Flamengo) = 2.16 / (2.16+1.61) × 1.08

= 0.573 × 1.08 = 51.58% → Fair odds 1.94

P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)

= 19.98% → Fair odds 5.01

P(Atlético Mineiro) = 1 − 51.58% − 19.98%

= 28.45% → Fair odds 3.52

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

1.57

Home xG (λ)

1.91

Away xG (λ)

3.48

Total E[goals]

1.52

League Avg Home

1.12

League Avg Away

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama

28 Jul · Each cell shows the probability of that exact scoreline. Dixon-Coles corrected (ρ = -0.13). · Upcoming

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	4.3%	4.7%	5.7%	3.6%	1.7%	0.7%	0.2%
1	3.6%	10.5%	8.9%	5.6%	2.7%	1.0%	0.3%
2	3.8%	7.3%	7.0%	4.4%	2.1%	0.8%	0.3%
3	2.0%	3.8%	3.6%	2.3%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%
4	0.8%	1.5%	1.4%	0.9%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%
5	0.3%	0.5%	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
6	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Most likely High Medium Low

Derived Markets

Home Win

30.84%

Fair odds: 3.24

Market: 3.60 (27.8%)

Draw

24.56%

Fair odds: 4.07

Market: 3.45 (29.0%)

Away Win

44.6%

Fair odds: 2.24

Market: 2.43 (41.2%)

Over 0.595.7%/ Under 4.3%Fair: 1.04

Over 1.587.34%/ Under 12.66%Fair: 1.14

Over 2.567.39%/ Under 32.61%Fair: 1.48

Over 3.545.65%/ Under 54.35%Fair: 2.19

Over 4.526.73%/ Under 73.27%Fair: 3.74

BTTS Yes68.61%Fair: 1.46

BTTS No31.39%Fair: 3.19

Correct Score — Top 12

11-1

10.49%D

21-2

8.86%A

32-1

7.29%H

42-2

6.96%D

50-2

5.65%A

61-3

5.64%A

70-1

4.71%A

82-3

4.43%A

90-0

4.3%D

102-0

3.81%H

113-1

3.81%H

121-0

3.65%H

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Where the low-score correction adds value

Plain Poisson

P(0-0) = 3.1%

P(1-0) = 4.8%

P(0-1) = 5.9%

P(1-1) = 9.2%

✗ Underestimates 0-0, 1-0, 0-1

Dixon-Coles (ρ correction)

P(0-0) = 4.3% (+1.2%)

P(1-0) = 3.6% (-1.2%)

P(0-1) = 4.7% (-1.2%)

P(1-1) = 10.5% (+1.3%)

✓ Fixes low-score underestimation

💡 Why does this matter? Draws in football are dominated by 0-0 and 1-1. Plain Poisson underprices these by 15–20%. Dixon-Coles corrects this, generating better ROI on draw markets.

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Poisson/Dixon-Coles model — xG computed only from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	98	32	32.65%	−$68.30	-6.97%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	58	35	60.34%	+$16.00	+2.76%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	11	2	18.18%	−$74.60	-67.82%
DC Draw (>28%)	59	17	28.81%	−$4.60	-0.78%
DC Over 2.5 Value	28	17	60.71%	+$58.90	+21.04%
DC BTTS Value	30	15	50%	−$23.80	-7.93%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Dixon-Coles bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	98	−$68.30	-6.97%	−$34.73	-22.65%	−$54.59	-5.43%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	58	+$16.00	+2.76%	−$30.02	-38.77%	+$33.28	+5.66%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	11	−$74.60	-67.82%	$0.00	0%	−$72.40	-61.52%
DC Draw (>28%)	59	−$4.60	-0.78%	−$21.48	-72.96%	+$12.87	+2.21%
DC Over 2.5 Value	28	+$58.90	+21.04%	+$5.15	+9.9%	+$54.02	+18.94%
DC BTTS Value	30	−$23.80	-7.93%	−$12.39	-65.45%	−$21.07	-6.97%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

Team	Att (H)	Def (H)	Att (A)	Def (A)	H GP	A GP
Flamengo	1.32	0.67	1.79	0.62	16	16
Palmeiras	1.23	0.56	1.45	0.49	16	16
Cruzeiro	1.11	0.89	1.31	1.14	16	15
Fluminense	1.19	0.89	1.17	1.03	16	16
Santos	0.95	1.17	1.45	1.07	16	16
Athletico Paranaense	1.11	0.84	1.13	0.96	16	15
Bahia	0.95	0.95	1.23	0.95	16	16
Botafogo	1.07	1.23	1.01	1.23	16	15
Atlético Mineiro	1.11	0.95	0.95	0.86	16	16
Vasco da Gama	0.99	1.12	0.89	1.1	16	15
Coritiba	0.83	1.19	1	1.19	15	16
São Paulo	1.03	0.73	0.67	0.95	16	16
Mirassol	0.93	1.16	0.77	1.01	17	15
RB Bragantino	0.94	0.96	0.79	0.81	14	17
Internacional	0.86	0.95	0.84	0.95	16	16
Vitória	0.95	0.73	0.67	1.36	16	16
Grêmio	1.03	1.17	0.56	0.95	16	16
Remo	0.82	1.17	0.78	1.19	16	16
Corinthians	0.66	0.95	1	1.03	16	16
Chapecoense	0.94	1.91	0.61	1.19	14	16

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:: Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:: P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:: Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:: Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:: Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1Flamengo

1666

2Palmeiras

1643

3Cruzeiro

1595

4Atlético Mineiro

1559

5Athletico Paranaense

1557

6Santos

1549

7Bahia

1538

8Fluminense

1526

9São Paulo

1485

10Mirassol

1482

11Vasco da Gama

1482

12RB Bragantino

1466

13Internacional

1459

14Vitória

1456

15Botafogo

1450

16Coritiba

1449

17Grêmio

1437

18Corinthians

1411

19Remo

1401

20Chapecoense

1389

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo Diff	P(Higher wins)	Fair Odds	Typical Matchup
0	50.0%	2.00	Evenly matched
50	57.1%	1.75	Mid vs mid-lower
100	64.0%	1.56	Top-8 vs bottom-8
150	70.3%	1.42	Top-4 vs relegation
200	76.0%	1.32	Leader vs bottom half
250	80.8%	1.24	Leader vs bottom 3
300	84.9%	1.18	Flamengo vs Chapecoense

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

FlamengoPalmeirasCruzeiroAtlético MineiroAthletico ParanaenseSantos

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#	Team	Elo	Peak	Δ	GP	W	D	L
1	Flamengo	1666	1666	+166	32	21	7	4
2	Palmeiras	1643	1643	+143	32	20	9	3
3	Cruzeiro	1595	1595	+95	31	16	6	9
4	Atlético Mineiro	1559	1569	+59	32	14	8	10
5	Athletico Paranaense	1557	1586	+57	31	14	9	8
6	Santos	1549	1553	+49	32	12	10	10
7	Bahia	1538	1562	+38	32	13	11	8
8	Fluminense	1526	1578	+26	32	14	9	9
9	São Paulo	1485	1574	-15	32	12	7	13
10	Mirassol	1482	1515	-18	32	9	10	13
11	Vasco da Gama	1482	1511	-18	31	10	8	13
12	RB Bragantino	1466	1533	-34	31	10	8	13
13	Internacional	1459	1510	-41	32	8	11	13
14	Vitória	1456	1513	-44	32	10	8	14
15	Botafogo	1450	1533	-50	31	10	8	13
16	Coritiba	1449	1536	-51	31	10	8	13
17	Grêmio	1437	1515	-63	32	8	10	14
18	Corinthians	1411	1542	-89	32	8	9	15
19	Remo	1401	1500	-99	32	5	11	16
20	Chapecoense	1389	1515	-111	30	4	9	17

Elo Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	102	23	23%	−$219.90	-21.56%
Elo Favourite	124	61	49%	−$36.40	-2.94%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	29	20	69%	+$21.50	+7.41%
Elo Away Pick (>50%)	3	1	33%	−$15.00	-50%
Elo Draw (>28%)	39	13	33%	+$63.50	+16.28%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	102	−$219.90	-21.56%	−$58.39	-44.19%	−$155.96	-15.4%
Elo Favourite	124	−$36.40	-2.94%	−$8.61	-9.86%	−$20.86	-1.66%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	29	+$21.50	+7.41%	+$1.59	+7.85%	+$25.38	+8.46%
Elo Away Pick (>50%)	3	−$15.00	-50%	$0.00	0%	−$12.11	-44.67%
Elo Draw (>28%)	39	+$63.50	+16.28%	−$19.70	-25.26%	+$58.27	+15.06%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:: Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:: E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:: R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:: Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:: Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

Upcoming Fixtures — Value Identified by Each Model Independently

Min EV threshold2%

Show models

7Value bets found

5Multi-model consensus

+6.3%Avg EV found

Consensus across 3 models · Odds: H 3.30 · D 3.25 · A 2.25

Home Win

25.5%

Mkt implied: 30.3%

EV -4.8%

Draw

24.6%

Mkt implied: 30.8%

EV -6.2%

Away Win

49.9%

Mkt implied: 44.4%

EV +5.5%

PPG: H 32% D 20% A 48%Dixon-Coles: H 12% D 24% A 64%Elo: H 32% D 30% A 38%

Consensus across 0 model · Odds: H 0.00 · A 0.00

Home Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Away Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Consensus across 0 model · Odds: H 0.00 · A 0.00

Home Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Away Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Consensus across 0 model · Odds: H 0.00 · A 0.00

Home Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Away Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Consensus across 0 model · Odds: H 0.00 · A 0.00

Home Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Away Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Consensus across 0 model · Odds: H 0.00 · A 0.00

Home Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Away Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Consensus across 0 model · Odds: H 0.00 · A 0.00

Home Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Away Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Consensus across 0 model · Odds: H 0.00 · A 0.00

Home Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Away Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Consensus across 0 model · Odds: H 0.00 · A 0.00

Home Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Away Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

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Serie A Brazil Prediction Models

Flat Betting Model

Odds Range Filter

Market ROI Summary

Staking Plan Comparison

By Team Bets

PPG Model

Odds Range Filter

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

PPG Ratings — All Teams

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Worked Example — Flamengo vs Atlético Mineiro

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama

Derived Markets

Correct Score — Top 12

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Team Attack & Defense Strength

How Poisson Predictions Work

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

Elo → Win Probability Table

Elo Rating History — Top 6

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Elo Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

How Elo Ratings Work

Value Scanner

Upcoming Fixtures — Value Identified by Each Model Independently