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PSL South Africa Prediction Models

2026/2027

Flat Betting Model

Matches w/ Odds

$10

Stake Per Bet

+45.71%

Best: Under 2.5

-48.59%

Worst: Underdog

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for PSL South Africa. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

Market	Bets	Wins	Win %	Staked	Return	P&L	ROI	Best Str.	Worst Str.
Home Bet	58	19	32.76%	$580	$346.3	−$233.70	-40.29%	4	9
Draw Bet	58	20	34.48%	$580	$613.4	+$33.40	+5.76%	5	7
Away Bet	58	19	32.76%	$580	$471.9	−$108.10	-18.64%	3	13
Over 2.5	58	22	37.93%	$580	$402.1	−$177.90	-30.67%	5	6
Under 2.5	58	36	62.07%	$580	$845.1	+$265.10	+45.71%	6	5
BTTS Yes	58	25	43.1%	$580	$586.4	+$6.40	+1.1%	5	4
Home Favorite	39	18	46.15%	$390	$316.3	−$73.70	-18.9%	5	5
Away Underdog	29	7	24.14%	$290	$240.2	−$49.80	-17.17%	2	11
Favorite	58	29	50%	$580	$520	−$60.00	-10.34%	7	5
Underdog	58	9	15.52%	$580	$298.2	−$281.80	-48.59%	3	12

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

Market	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Home Bet	58	−$233.70	-40.29%	−$48.50	-100%	−$120.96	-20.81%
Draw Bet	58	+$33.40	+5.76%	−$37.88	-21.07%	+$85.19	+14.65%
Away Bet	58	−$108.10	-18.64%	−$46.76	-81.49%	+$34.29	+5.5%
Over 2.5	58	−$177.90	-30.67%	$0.00	0%	−$185.90	-31.56%
Under 2.5	58	+$265.10	+45.71%	+$295.49	+32.58%	+$262.80	+43.8%
BTTS Yes	58	+$6.40	+1.1%	−$19.32	-22.59%	+$4.14	+0.73%
Home Favorite	39	−$73.70	-18.9%	−$23.58	-63.01%	−$37.21	-9.25%
Away Underdog	29	−$49.80	-17.17%	−$9.33	-100%	−$22.46	-7.57%
Favorite	58	−$60.00	-10.34%	−$28.52	-39.86%	−$20.55	-3.46%
Underdog	58	−$281.80	-48.59%	−$19.14	-100%	−$163.46	-27.68%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

Team	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
AmaZulu	7	5	71.43%	+$91.50	+130.71%
Sekhukhune United	7	4	57.14%	+$14.20	+20.29%
Orlando Pirates	8	7	87.5%	+$13.40	+16.75%
Mamelodi Sundowns FC	8	7	87.5%	+$12.80	+16%
Milford	8	3	37.5%	+$2.00	+2.5%
Kaizer Chiefs	7	3	42.86%	−$16.40	-23.43%
Stellenbosch	7	2	28.57%	−$25.80	-36.86%
Chippa United	7	1	14.29%	−$31.00	-44.29%
TS Galaxy	7	1	14.29%	−$38.90	-55.57%
Polokwane City	7	1	14.29%	−$39.40	-56.29%
Golden Arrows	7	1	14.29%	−$42.00	-60%
Kruger United	7	1	14.29%	−$42.00	-60%
Siwelele	7	1	14.29%	−$46.50	-66.43%
Durban City	8	1	12.5%	−$53.70	-67.12%
Marumo Gallants	7	0	0%	−$70.00	-100%
Richards Bay	7	0	0%	−$70.00	-100%

PPG Model

Teams

1.3

League Avg PPG

1.08

Home Factor

λ=0.85

WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for PSL South Africa. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	44	23	52.27%	+$13.80	+3.14%
PPG Home Pick	18	10	55.56%	−$23.20	-12.89%
PPG Away Pick	26	13	50%	+$37.00	+14.23%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	44	23	52.27%	+$13.80	+3.14%
PPG Value (fair < market)	49	13	26.53%	−$203.40	-41.51%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:: Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:: Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:: Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:: Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:: Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	44	+$13.80	+3.14%	+$12.54	+14.08%	+$43.36	+8.79%
PPG Home Pick	18	−$23.20	-12.89%	−$36.92	-100%	+$3.85	+1.87%
PPG Away Pick	26	+$37.00	+14.23%	+$22.49	+82.44%	+$49.59	+16.81%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	44	+$13.80	+3.14%	+$5.76	+6.33%	+$51.56	+10.5%
PPG Value (fair < market)	49	−$203.40	-41.51%	−$49.62	-100%	−$98.39	-19.65%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds	Result	✓
18 Oct	Siwelele vs Polokwane City	Polokwane City	59.36%	1.68	1 – 0	✗
17 Oct	Sekhukhune United vs Marumo Gallants	Sekhukhune United	86.86%	1.15	2 – 1	✓
17 Oct	Chippa United vs Kruger United	Chippa United	63.49%	1.57	0 – 1	✗
17 Oct	Golden Arrows vs Milford	Milford	40.89%	2.45	0 – 1	✓
13 Oct	Durban City vs AmaZulu	AmaZulu	58.91%	1.7	1 – 2	✓

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds
30 Oct	Marumo Gallants vs Siwelele	Siwelele	55.93%	1.79
31 Oct	Milford vs Sekhukhune United	***	0%	0
31 Oct	Orlando Pirates vs Kaizer Chiefs	🔒 Login or register for free to see predictions data.
31 Oct	Stellenbosch vs Chippa United
31 Oct	AmaZulu vs Golden Arrows

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

Team	PPG ↓	H-PPG	A-PPG	WPPG	vs Avg
1Orlando Pirates	2.75	3	2.5	2.84	+1.45
2Mamelodi Sundowns FC	2.56	3	2.2	2.54	+1.26
3AmaZulu	2.38	2.33	2.4	2.52	+1.08
4Sekhukhune United	1.75	2.5	1	1.89	+0.45
5Kaizer Chiefs	1.75	2	1.5	1.54	+0.45
6Milford	1.67	2.5	1	1.79	+0.37
7Stellenbosch	1.25	1.33	1.2	1.36	-0.05
8Golden Arrows	1	1	1	0.88	-0.30
9Chippa United	1	0.6	1.67	1.05	-0.30
10Durban City	0.88	0.75	1	0.79	-0.42
11Kruger United	0.88	0	1.75	1.14	-0.42
12Polokwane City	0.88	0.75	1	0.66	-0.42
13Siwelele	0.75	1.5	0	0.97	-0.55
14TS Galaxy	0.75	0.25	1.25	0.61	-0.55
15Richards Bay	0.38	0.2	0.67	0.28	-0.92
16Marumo Gallants	0.25	0.5	0	0.19	-1.05

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

Kruger United

PPG: 0.88WPPG: 1.14Gap: ↑ 0.26

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Polokwane City

PPG: 0.88WPPG: 0.66Gap: ↓ 0.22

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Siwelele

PPG: 0.75WPPG: 0.97Gap: ↑ 0.22

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Kaizer Chiefs

PPG: 1.75WPPG: 1.54Gap: ↓ 0.21

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

AmaZulu

PPG: 2.38WPPG: 2.52Gap: ↑ 0.14

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Worked Example — Siwelele vs Polokwane City

P(Siwelele) = 0.43 / (0.43+1) × 1.08

= 0.301 × 1.08 = 29.12% → Fair odds 3.43

P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)

= 11.52% → Fair odds 8.68

P(Polokwane City) = 1 − 29.12% − 11.52%

= 59.36% → Fair odds 1.68

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

1.84

Home xG (λ)

0.81

Away xG (λ)

2.65

Total E[goals]

1.22

League Avg Home

1.08

League Avg Away

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Marumo Gallants vs Siwelele

29 Oct · Each cell shows the probability of that exact scoreline. Dixon-Coles corrected (ρ = -0.13). · Upcoming

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8.5%	4.4%	2.3%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
1	11.7%	11.9%	4.3%	1.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
2	12.0%	9.7%	3.9%	1.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
3	7.4%	6.0%	2.4%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
4	3.4%	2.7%	1.1%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
5	1.3%	1.0%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Most likely High Medium Low

Derived Markets

Home Win

60.29%

Fair odds: 1.66

Draw

25.04%

Fair odds: 3.99

Away Win

14.66%

Fair odds: 6.82

Over 0.591.54%/ Under 8.46%Fair: 1.09

Over 1.575.51%/ Under 24.49%Fair: 1.32

Over 2.549.26%/ Under 50.74%Fair: 2.03

Over 3.527.28%/ Under 72.72%Fair: 3.67

Over 4.512.72%/ Under 87.28%Fair: 7.86

BTTS Yes48.04%Fair: 2.08

BTTS No51.96%Fair: 1.92

Correct Score — Top 12

12-0

11.99%H

21-1

11.93%D

31-0

11.66%H

42-1

9.72%H

50-0

8.46%D

63-0

7.36%H

73-1

5.96%H

80-1

4.37%A

91-2

4.28%A

102-2

3.93%D

114-0

3.38%H

124-1

2.74%H

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Where the low-score correction adds value

Plain Poisson

P(0-0) = 7.1%

P(1-0) = 13.0%

P(0-1) = 5.7%

P(1-1) = 10.5%

✗ Underestimates 0-0, 1-0, 0-1

Dixon-Coles (ρ correction)

P(0-0) = 8.5% (+1.4%)

P(1-0) = 11.7% (-1.3%)

P(0-1) = 4.4% (-1.3%)

P(1-1) = 11.9% (+1.4%)

✓ Fixes low-score underestimation

💡 Why does this matter? Draws in football are dominated by 0-0 and 1-1. Plain Poisson underprices these by 15–20%. Dixon-Coles corrects this, generating better ROI on draw markets.

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Poisson/Dixon-Coles model — xG computed only from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	21	9	42.86%	−$37.60	-17.9%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	9	5	55.56%	−$19.80	-22%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	4	4	100%	+$25.30	+63.25%
DC Draw (>28%)	11	5	45.45%	+$41.50	+37.73%
DC Over 2.5 Value	8	4	50%	−$4.80	-6%
DC BTTS Value	6	4	66.67%	+$40.10	+66.83%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Dixon-Coles bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	21	−$37.60	-17.9%	−$39.29	-51.27%	−$9.32	-4.93%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	9	−$19.80	-22%	−$9.54	-100%	−$5.96	-7.19%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	4	+$25.30	+63.25%	$0.00	0%	+$20.43	+49.61%
DC Draw (>28%)	11	+$41.50	+37.73%	−$1.58	-2.49%	+$44.37	+40.18%
DC Over 2.5 Value	8	−$4.80	-6%	−$10.75	-100%	−$0.35	-0.43%
DC BTTS Value	6	+$40.10	+66.83%	−$15.83	-100%	+$36.51	+59.42%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

Team	Att (H)	Def (H)	Att (A)	Def (A)	H GP	A GP
Mamelodi Sundowns FC	2.46	0.46	2.04	0.98	4	5
Orlando Pirates	1.84	0	2.31	0.2	4	4
Kaizer Chiefs	1.43	0.93	1.39	0.82	4	4
AmaZulu	1.09	0.31	1.48	1.15	3	5
Richards Bay	1.15	2.41	0.93	1.91	5	3
Stellenbosch	1.09	0.93	0.93	0.82	3	5
Sekhukhune United	1.02	0.23	0.93	1.43	4	4
Milford	1.84	0.69	0.19	0.66	4	5
Polokwane City	0.82	1.16	0.93	1.23	4	4
Siwelele	1.02	0.93	0.46	1.84	4	4
TS Galaxy	0.41	1.16	1.16	1.43	4	4
Marumo Gallants	0.82	1.62	0.46	1.64	4	4
Durban City	0.41	0.69	0.69	0.82	4	4
Chippa United	0.33	1.11	0.62	0.27	5	3
Kruger United	0.2	2.31	0.69	0.41	4	4
Golden Arrows	0.33	0.56	0.31	0.27	5	3

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:: Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:: P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:: Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:: Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:: Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1Mamelodi Sundowns FC

1594

2Orlando Pirates

1593

3AmaZulu

1575

4Kaizer Chiefs

1537

5Milford

1531

6Sekhukhune United

1528

7Stellenbosch

1510

8Chippa United

1480

9Golden Arrows

1479

10Durban City

1475

11Polokwane City

1467

12Kruger United

1465

13Siwelele

1464

14TS Galaxy

1454

15Richards Bay

1428

16Marumo Gallants

1420

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo Diff	P(Higher wins)	Fair Odds	Typical Matchup
0	50.0%	2.00	Evenly matched
50	57.1%	1.75	Mid vs mid-lower
100	64.0%	1.56	Top-8 vs bottom-8
150	70.3%	1.42	Top-4 vs relegation
200	76.0%	1.32	Leader vs bottom half
250	80.8%	1.24	Leader vs bottom 3
300	84.9%	1.18	Mamelodi Sundowns FC vs Marumo Gallants

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

Mamelodi Sundowns FCOrlando PiratesAmaZuluKaizer ChiefsMilfordSekhukhune United

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#	Team	Elo	Peak	Δ	GP	W	D	L
1	Mamelodi Sundowns FC	1594	1594	+94	9	7	2	0
2	Orlando Pirates	1593	1593	+93	8	7	1	0
3	AmaZulu	1575	1575	+75	8	6	1	1
4	Kaizer Chiefs	1537	1542	+37	8	3	5	0
5	Milford	1531	1531	+31	9	4	3	2
6	Sekhukhune United	1528	1528	+28	8	4	2	2
7	Stellenbosch	1510	1510	+10	8	2	4	2
8	Chippa United	1480	1503	-20	8	1	5	2
9	Golden Arrows	1479	1515	-21	8	1	5	2
10	Durban City	1475	1500	-25	8	1	4	3
11	Polokwane City	1467	1519	-33	8	1	4	3
12	Kruger United	1465	1500	-35	8	2	1	5
13	Siwelele	1464	1500	-36	8	1	3	4
14	TS Galaxy	1454	1503	-46	8	1	3	4
15	Richards Bay	1428	1500	-72	8	0	3	5
16	Marumo Gallants	1420	1500	-80	8	0	2	6

Elo Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	36	4	11%	−$234.80	-65.22%
Elo Favourite	41	18	44%	−$91.50	-22.32%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	3	3	100%	+$11.40	+38%
Elo Draw (>28%)	15	5	33%	+$0.50	+0.33%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	36	−$234.80	-65.22%	−$5.34	-100%	−$185.49	-54.93%
Elo Favourite	41	−$91.50	-22.32%	−$53.90	-79.67%	−$28.05	-6.42%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	3	+$11.40	+38%	$0.00	0%	+$9.33	+33.21%
Elo Draw (>28%)	15	+$0.50	+0.33%	−$20.20	-47%	+$21.35	+12.69%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:: Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:: E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:: R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:: Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:: Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

No upcoming matches with odds available. Please check back later.

PSL South Africa Prediction Models

Flat Betting Model

Odds Range Filter

Market ROI Summary

Staking Plan Comparison

By Team Bets

PPG Model

Odds Range Filter

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

PPG Ratings — All Teams

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Worked Example — Siwelele vs Polokwane City

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Marumo Gallants vs Siwelele

Derived Markets

Correct Score — Top 12

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Team Attack & Defense Strength

How Poisson Predictions Work

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

Elo → Win Probability Table

Elo Rating History — Top 6

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Elo Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

How Elo Ratings Work

Value Scanner