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Pro League Belgium Prediction Models

2026/2027

Flat Betting Model

Matches w/ Odds

$10

Stake Per Bet

+18.69%

Best: Favorite

-47.64%

Worst: Away Underdog

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for First Division A Belgium. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

Market	Bets	Wins	Win %	Staked	Return	P&L	ROI	Best Str.	Worst Str.
Home Bet	80	41	51.25%	$800	$881.4	+$81.40	+10.17%	5	4
Draw Bet	80	15	18.75%	$800	$589.8	−$210.20	-26.27%	2	11
Away Bet	80	24	30%	$800	$611.2	−$188.80	-23.6%	3	11
Over 2.5	80	52	65%	$800	$919.9	+$119.90	+14.99%	10	3
Under 2.5	80	28	35%	$800	$707.3	−$92.70	-11.59%	3	10
BTTS Yes	80	36	45%	$800	$610.1	−$189.90	-23.74%	5	9
Home Favorite	49	32	65.31%	$490	$575.6	+$85.60	+17.47%	5	3
Away Underdog	28	3	10.71%	$280	$146.6	−$133.40	-47.64%	1	12
Favorite	80	50	62.5%	$800	$949.5	+$149.50	+18.69%	5	5
Underdog	80	15	18.75%	$800	$543.1	−$256.90	-32.11%	3	13

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

Market	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Home Bet	80	+$81.40	+10.17%	−$40.72	-22.09%	+$122.34	+15.48%
Draw Bet	80	−$210.20	-26.27%	−$10.98	-33.74%	−$191.68	-23.45%
Away Bet	80	−$188.80	-23.6%	−$44.04	-60.84%	−$82.36	-9.51%
Over 2.5	80	+$119.90	+14.99%	+$60.39	+7.75%	+$118.92	+14.36%
Under 2.5	80	−$92.70	-11.59%	+$0.11	+0.92%	−$108.03	-13.16%
BTTS Yes	80	−$189.90	-23.74%	−$7.47	-7.11%	−$195.18	-23.56%
Home Favorite	49	+$85.60	+17.47%	+$2.71	+1.63%	+$92.52	+18.77%
Away Underdog	28	−$133.40	-47.64%	$0.00	0%	−$132.39	-47.43%
Favorite	80	+$149.50	+18.69%	+$29.24	+7.94%	+$155.84	+19.63%
Underdog	80	−$256.90	-32.11%	−$20.46	-100%	−$225.34	-26.32%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

Team	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Gent	9	8	88.89%	+$109.80	+122%
Sporting Charleroi	9	7	77.78%	+$58.60	+65.11%
Westerlo	9	4	44.44%	+$39.70	+44.11%
Lommel	9	3	33.33%	+$33.40	+37.11%
Union Saint-Gilloise	9	7	77.78%	+$30.90	+34.33%
Club Brugge	9	8	88.89%	+$18.80	+20.89%
Beveren	9	3	33.33%	+$3.10	+3.44%
Anderlecht	9	5	55.56%	+$2.60	+2.89%
Antwerp	9	3	33.33%	−$4.90	-5.44%
Zulte Waregem	9	3	33.33%	−$13.00	-14.44%
Standard Liège	9	3	33.33%	−$24.10	-26.78%
Genk	9	4	44.44%	−$24.20	-26.89%
RAAL La Louvière	9	2	22.22%	−$36.30	-40.33%
Sint-Truiden	9	2	22.22%	−$43.80	-48.67%
Mechelen	8	1	12.5%	−$46.10	-57.62%
Kortrijk	8	1	12.5%	−$52.60	-65.75%
OH Leuven	9	1	11.11%	−$69.30	-77%
Cercle Brugge	9	0	0%	−$90.00	-100%

PPG Model

Teams

1.4

League Avg PPG

1.08

Home Factor

λ=0.85

WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for First Division A Belgium. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	67	42	62.69%	+$180.80	+26.99%
PPG Home Pick	33	24	72.73%	+$102.40	+31.03%
PPG Away Pick	34	18	52.94%	+$78.40	+23.06%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	67	43	64.18%	+$221.50	+33.06%
PPG Value (fair < market)	70	35	50%	+$102.60	+14.66%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:: Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:: Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:: Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:: Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:: Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	67	+$180.80	+26.99%	+$110.05	+8.25%	+$206.77	+29.47%
PPG Home Pick	33	+$102.40	+31.03%	+$40.09	+12.83%	+$116.80	+33.06%
PPG Away Pick	34	+$78.40	+23.06%	+$17.65	+4.58%	+$84.70	+24.94%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	67	+$221.50	+33.06%	+$204.03	+14.5%	+$229.11	+32.69%
PPG Value (fair < market)	70	+$102.60	+14.66%	−$26.59	-4.31%	+$156.12	+21.93%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds	Result	✓
25 Oct	Union Saint-Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge	Union Saint-Gilloise	90.08%	1.11	5 – 2	✓
25 Oct	Gent vs Anderlecht	Gent	52.33%	1.91	4 – 0	✓
25 Oct	Club Brugge vs Sint-Truiden	Club Brugge	71.01%	1.41	3 – 2	✓
25 Oct	Genk vs Standard Liège	Genk	45.12%	2.22	2 – 1	✓
24 Oct	Westerlo vs Beveren	Westerlo	53.79%	1.86	4 – 4	✗

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds
23 Oct	Kortrijk vs Mechelen	Mechelen	47.3%	2.11
30 Oct	Zulte Waregem vs Club Brugge	***	0%	0
31 Oct	Mechelen vs Genk	🔒 Login or register for free to see predictions data.
31 Oct	Standard Liège vs Kortrijk
31 Oct	Beveren vs Union Saint-Gilloise

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

Team	PPG ↓	H-PPG	A-PPG	WPPG	vs Avg
1Gent	2.78	3	2.5	2.76	+1.38
2Club Brugge	2.67	3	2.25	2.74	+1.27
3Union Saint-Gilloise	2.56	2.2	3	2.54	+1.16
4Sporting Charleroi	2.33	2.25	2.4	2.11	+0.93
5Anderlecht	1.78	2.5	1.2	1.8	+0.38
6Genk	1.67	2.6	0.5	1.83	+0.27
7Westerlo	1.56	1.6	1.5	1.87	+0.16
8Lommel	1.33	1	1.6	1.37	-0.07
9Standard Liège	1.22	1.75	0.8	0.9	-0.18
10Zulte Waregem	1.22	1.5	1	0.84	-0.18
11Antwerp	1.11	1.4	0.75	1.01	-0.29
12Beveren	1.11	2.25	0.2	1.05	-0.29
13Sint-Truiden	0.89	1	0.8	0.64	-0.51
14RAAL La Louvière	0.78	1.4	0	1.03	-0.62
15Mechelen	0.75	1	0.5	0.98	-0.65
16OH Leuven	0.67	1	0.25	0.9	-0.73
17Kortrijk	0.38	0.75	0	0.53	-1.02
18Cercle Brugge	0.33	0.25	0.4	0.24	-1.07

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

Zulte Waregem

PPG: 1.22WPPG: 0.84Gap: ↓ 0.38

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Standard Liège

PPG: 1.22WPPG: 0.9Gap: ↓ 0.32

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Westerlo

PPG: 1.56WPPG: 1.87Gap: ↑ 0.31

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Sint-Truiden

PPG: 0.89WPPG: 0.64Gap: ↓ 0.25

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

RAAL La Louvière

PPG: 0.78WPPG: 1.03Gap: ↑ 0.25

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Worked Example — Union Saint-Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge

P(Union Saint-Gilloise) = 2.5 / (2.5+0.38) × 1.08

= 0.868 × 1.08 = 90.08% → Fair odds 1.11

P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)

= 4.07% → Fair odds 24.55

P(Cercle Brugge) = 1 − 90.08% − 4.07%

= 5.85% → Fair odds 17.11

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

0.4

Home xG (λ)

0.75

Away xG (λ)

1.15

Total E[goals]

1.86

League Avg Home

1.33

League Avg Away

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Kortrijk vs Mechelen

22 Oct · Each cell shows the probability of that exact scoreline. Dixon-Coles corrected (ρ = -0.13). · Upcoming

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	32.9%	22.5%	8.9%	2.2%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
1	11.4%	10.7%	3.6%	0.9%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
2	2.5%	1.9%	0.7%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	0.3%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Most likely High Medium Low

Derived Markets

Home Win

16.63%

Fair odds: 6.01

Market: 2.50 (40.0%)

Draw

44.37%

Fair odds: 2.25

Market: 3.40 (29.4%)

Away Win

39%

Fair odds: 2.56

Market: 2.50 (40.0%)

Over 0.567.1%/ Under 32.9%Fair: 1.49

Over 1.533.16%/ Under 66.84%Fair: 3.02

Over 2.510.98%/ Under 89.02%Fair: 9.1

Over 3.52.96%/ Under 97.04%Fair: 33.81

Over 4.50.65%/ Under 99.35%Fair: 153.72

BTTS Yes18.63%Fair: 5.37

BTTS No81.37%Fair: 1.23

Correct Score — Top 12

10-0

32.9%D

20-1

22.51%A

31-0

11.43%H

41-1

10.73%D

50-2

8.91%A

61-2

3.56%A

72-0

2.53%H

80-3

2.23%A

92-1

1.9%H

101-3

0.89%A

112-2

0.71%D

120-4

0.42%A

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Where the low-score correction adds value

Plain Poisson

P(0-0) = 31.7%

P(1-0) = 12.7%

P(0-1) = 23.8%

P(1-1) = 9.5%

✗ Underestimates 0-0, 1-0, 0-1

Dixon-Coles (ρ correction)

P(0-0) = 32.9% (+1.2%)

P(1-0) = 11.4% (-1.2%)

P(0-1) = 22.5% (-1.2%)

P(1-1) = 10.7% (+1.2%)

✓ Fixes low-score underestimation

💡 Why does this matter? Draws in football are dominated by 0-0 and 1-1. Plain Poisson underprices these by 15–20%. Dixon-Coles corrects this, generating better ROI on draw markets.

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Poisson/Dixon-Coles model — xG computed only from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	38	12	31.58%	−$119.50	-31.45%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	16	10	62.5%	+$28.50	+17.81%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	10	4	40%	−$24.00	-24%
DC Draw (>28%)	15	1	6.67%	−$114.00	-76%
DC Over 2.5 Value	8	5	62.5%	+$5.10	+6.38%
DC BTTS Value	5	3	60%	−$4.70	-9.4%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Dixon-Coles bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	38	−$119.50	-31.45%	−$1.90	-16.98%	−$113.61	-22.41%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	16	+$28.50	+17.81%	−$10.11	-40.82%	+$46.11	+23.08%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	10	−$24.00	-24%	−$11.46	-100%	−$11.82	-11.07%
DC Draw (>28%)	15	−$114.00	-76%	$0.00	0%	−$138.92	-77.24%
DC Over 2.5 Value	8	+$5.10	+6.38%	$0.00	0%	+$2.73	+3.29%
DC BTTS Value	5	−$4.70	-9.4%	$0.00	0%	−$3.87	-7.63%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

Team	Att (H)	Def (H)	Att (A)	Def (A)	H GP	A GP
Union Saint-Gilloise	1.51	0.45	2.44	0.4	5	4
Westerlo	1.72	2.11	1.5	0.94	5	4
Club Brugge	1.4	0.45	1.69	0.4	5	4
Gent	1.18	0.3	1.5	0.27	5	4
Genk	1.4	0.6	0.94	1.21	5	4
Sint-Truiden	0.67	1.13	1.8	1.4	4	5
Sporting Charleroi	1.34	1.13	0.9	0.43	4	5
Antwerp	1.08	1.65	0.94	1.21	5	4
Standard Liège	0.67	0.56	1.35	1.29	4	5
Beveren	0.94	0.56	0.75	1.61	4	5
Cercle Brugge	0.54	1.69	1.05	1.29	4	5
Lommel	0.54	0.38	1.05	0.97	4	5
RAAL La Louvière	1.08	1.2	0.19	1.34	5	4
Mechelen	0.94	2.07	0.38	0.81	4	4
Zulte Waregem	0.81	0.75	0.6	0.86	4	5
Anderlecht	0.81	0.19	0.45	0.97	4	5
OH Leuven	0.65	1.2	0.38	1.08	5	4
Kortrijk	0.27	1.5	0	1.34	4	4

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:: Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:: P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:: Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:: Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:: Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1Gent

1607

2Club Brugge

1591

3Union Saint-Gilloise

1589

4Sporting Charleroi

1564

5Anderlecht

1531

6Genk

1529

7Westerlo

1517

8Lommel

1502

9Standard Liège

1485

10Zulte Waregem

1479

11Antwerp

1476

12Beveren

1471

13Mechelen

1458

14Sint-Truiden

1456

15OH Leuven

1452

16RAAL La Louvière

1445

17Cercle Brugge

1425

18Kortrijk

1422

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo Diff	P(Higher wins)	Fair Odds	Typical Matchup
0	50.0%	2.00	Evenly matched
50	57.1%	1.75	Mid vs mid-lower
100	64.0%	1.56	Top-8 vs bottom-8
150	70.3%	1.42	Top-4 vs relegation
200	76.0%	1.32	Leader vs bottom half
250	80.8%	1.24	Leader vs bottom 3
300	84.9%	1.18	Gent vs Kortrijk

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

GentClub BruggeUnion Saint-GilloiseSporting CharleroiAnderlechtGenk

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#	Team	Elo	Peak	Δ	GP	W	D	L
1	Gent	1607	1607	+107	9	8	1	0
2	Club Brugge	1591	1591	+91	9	8	0	1
3	Union Saint-Gilloise	1589	1591	+89	9	7	2	0
4	Sporting Charleroi	1564	1583	+64	9	7	0	2
5	Anderlecht	1531	1542	+31	9	5	1	3
6	Genk	1529	1529	+29	9	4	3	2
7	Westerlo	1517	1523	+17	9	4	2	3
8	Lommel	1502	1515	+2	9	3	3	3
9	Standard Liège	1485	1540	-15	9	3	2	4
10	Zulte Waregem	1479	1543	-21	9	3	2	4
11	Antwerp	1476	1531	-24	9	3	1	5
12	Beveren	1471	1502	-29	9	3	1	5
13	Mechelen	1458	1500	-42	8	1	3	4
14	Sint-Truiden	1456	1520	-44	9	2	2	5
15	OH Leuven	1452	1500	-48	9	1	3	5
16	RAAL La Louvière	1445	1500	-55	9	2	1	6
17	Cercle Brugge	1425	1503	-75	9	0	3	6
18	Kortrijk	1422	1500	-78	8	1	0	7

Elo Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	53	15	28%	−$39.50	-7.45%
Elo Favourite	62	37	60%	+$134.50	+21.69%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	6	5	83%	+$15.00	+25%
Elo Draw (>28%)	21	6	29%	+$6.20	+2.95%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	53	−$39.50	-7.45%	−$24.85	-92.07%	+$55.03	+10.15%
Elo Favourite	62	+$134.50	+21.69%	−$2.78	-0.89%	+$148.10	+22.78%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	6	+$15.00	+25%	+$1.00	+30.03%	+$13.64	+20.54%
Elo Draw (>28%)	21	+$6.20	+2.95%	−$14.34	-40.63%	+$3.86	+1.85%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:: Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:: E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:: R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:: Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:: Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

No upcoming matches with odds available. Please check back later.

Pro League Belgium Prediction Models

Flat Betting Model

Odds Range Filter

Market ROI Summary

Staking Plan Comparison

By Team Bets

PPG Model

Odds Range Filter

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

PPG Ratings — All Teams

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Worked Example — Union Saint-Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Kortrijk vs Mechelen

Derived Markets

Correct Score — Top 12

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Team Attack & Defense Strength

How Poisson Predictions Work

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

Elo → Win Probability Table

Elo Rating History — Top 6

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Elo Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

How Elo Ratings Work

Value Scanner