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Primera División Argentina Prediction Models

2026

Flat Betting Model

196

Matches w/ Odds

$10

Stake Per Bet

+30.49%

Best: Under 2.5

-14.83%

Worst: Draw Bet

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for Primera División Argentina. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

Market	Bets	Wins	Win %	Staked	Return	P&L	ROI	Best Str.	Worst Str.
Home Bet	196	84	42.86%	$1960	$1930.2	−$29.80	-1.52%	5	6
Draw Bet	196	53	27.04%	$1960	$1669.4	−$290.60	-14.83%	3	12
Away Bet	196	59	30.1%	$1960	$2212.6	+$252.60	+12.89%	4	10
Over 2.5	193	85	44.04%	$1930	$1801.8	−$128.20	-6.64%	5	8
Under 2.5	193	108	55.96%	$1930	$2518.5	+$588.50	+30.49%	8	5
BTTS Yes	196	96	48.98%	$1960	$2159	+$199.00	+10.15%	7	7
Home Favorite	144	70	48.61%	$1440	$1430.2	−$9.80	-0.68%	6	5
Away Underdog	130	33	25.38%	$1300	$1545.6	+$245.60	+18.89%	4	14
Favorite	196	90	45.92%	$1960	$1918.6	−$41.40	-2.11%	7	9
Underdog	196	54	27.55%	$1960	$2253	+$293.00	+14.95%	3	11

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

Market	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Home Bet	196	−$29.80	-1.52%	−$35.78	-3.74%	−$13.92	-0.69%
Draw Bet	196	−$290.60	-14.83%	−$12.91	-97.07%	−$265.07	-13.58%
Away Bet	196	+$252.60	+12.89%	+$55.33	+9.95%	+$203.84	+10.32%
Over 2.5	193	−$128.20	-6.64%	−$14.44	-15.56%	−$232.31	-11.87%
Under 2.5	193	+$588.50	+30.49%	+$1563.77	+21.97%	+$584.87	+28.67%
BTTS Yes	196	+$199.00	+10.15%	+$40.00	+23.47%	+$207.82	+10.31%
Home Favorite	144	−$9.80	-0.68%	−$26.09	-9.87%	−$1.37	-0.09%
Away Underdog	130	+$245.60	+18.89%	+$146.23	+24.75%	+$153.87	+11.91%
Favorite	196	−$41.40	-2.11%	−$43.01	-21.35%	−$28.82	-1.43%
Underdog	196	+$293.00	+14.95%	+$89.31	+7.81%	+$269.13	+13.64%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

Team	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Sarmiento	12	6	50%	+$102.80	+85.67%
Instituto	13	10	76.92%	+$110.20	+84.77%
Defensa y Justicia	13	8	61.54%	+$107.50	+82.69%
Gimnasia La Plata	13	7	53.85%	+$91.70	+70.54%
Gimnasia Mendoza	13	5	38.46%	+$83.20	+64%
Rosario Central	13	8	61.54%	+$78.00	+60%
Barracas Central	13	5	38.46%	+$34.20	+26.31%
Atlético Tucumán	14	4	28.57%	+$36.30	+25.93%
Huracán	13	4	30.77%	+$26.20	+20.15%
Lanús	13	6	46.15%	+$26.20	+20.15%
Vélez Sarsfield	13	6	46.15%	+$20.40	+15.69%
Banfield	13	3	23.08%	+$14.50	+11.15%
River Plate	12	7	58.33%	+$11.00	+9.17%
Independiente	14	5	35.71%	+$10.80	+7.71%
Argentinos Juniors	12	6	50%	+$8.60	+7.17%
Platense	13	3	23.08%	+$5.50	+4.23%
San Lorenzo	13	5	38.46%	+$5.30	+4.08%
Belgrano	13	5	38.46%	−$5.10	-3.92%
Boca Juniors	14	7	50%	−$7.70	-5.5%
Unión	13	5	38.46%	−$10.70	-8.23%
Newell's Old Boys	13	4	30.77%	−$22.60	-17.38%
Tigre	12	3	25%	−$22.00	-18.33%
Central Córdoba SdE	13	2	15.38%	−$23.90	-18.38%
Aldosivi	13	3	23.08%	−$29.80	-22.92%
Independiente Rivadavia	14	5	35.71%	−$38.90	-27.79%
Deportivo Riestra	14	2	14.29%	−$58.00	-41.43%
Estudiantes	14	4	28.57%	−$64.20	-45.86%
Talleres de Córdoba	13	2	15.38%	−$74.50	-57.31%
Racing Club	13	2	15.38%	−$91.20	-70.15%
Estudiantes Río Cuarto	13	1	7.69%	−$101.00	-77.69%

PPG Model

Teams

1.35

League Avg PPG

1.08

Home Factor

λ=0.85

WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for Primera División Argentina. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	192	84	43.75%	+$107.90	+5.62%
PPG Home Pick	88	47	53.41%	+$32.70	+3.72%
PPG Away Pick	104	37	35.58%	+$75.20	+7.23%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	196	91	46.43%	+$478.60	+24.42%
PPG Value (fair < market)	196	82	41.84%	+$285.10	+14.55%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:: Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:: Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:: Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:: Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:: Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	192	+$107.90	+5.62%	+$13.17	+2.8%	+$83.91	+4.26%
PPG Home Pick	88	+$32.70	+3.72%	+$3.42	+1.38%	+$29.71	+3.27%
PPG Away Pick	104	+$75.20	+7.23%	−$13.39	-16.34%	+$73.78	+6.99%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	196	+$478.60	+24.42%	+$790.04	+26.19%	+$334.57	+16.59%
PPG Value (fair < market)	196	+$285.10	+14.55%	+$408.21	+8.11%	+$155.13	+7.92%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds	Result	✓
27 Oct	Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia	Argentinos Juniors	43.08%	2.32	1 – 0	✓
27 Oct	Instituto vs Deportivo Riestra	Instituto	65.9%	1.52	1 – 0	✓
26 Oct	Unión vs Estudiantes	Estudiantes	39.92%	2.5	3 – 1	✗
26 Oct	Barracas Central vs Estudiantes Río Cuarto	Barracas Central	73.3%	1.36	2 – 1	✓
26 Oct	Central Córdoba SdE vs Vélez Sarsfield	Vélez Sarsfield	54.68%	1.83	0 – 5	✓

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds
30 Oct	Huracán vs Tigre	Huracán	48.7%	2.05
30 Oct	Estudiantes Río Cuarto vs Gimnasia La Plata	***	0%	0
31 Oct	Sarmiento vs Rosario Central	🔒 Login or register for free to see predictions data.
31 Oct	Racing Club vs Aldosivi
31 Oct	Deportivo Riestra vs Talleres de Córdoba

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

Team	PPG ↓	H-PPG	A-PPG	WPPG	vs Avg
1Boca Juniors	1.9	2.14	1.69	2.29	+0.55
2Argentinos Juniors	1.9	2.47	1.33	2	+0.55
3Rosario Central	1.87	1.87	1.87	2.26	+0.52
4Vélez Sarsfield	1.83	2.13	1.53	1.89	+0.48
5Instituto	1.77	2.13	1.4	2.34	+0.42
6Independiente Rivadavia	1.77	2.2	1.33	1.21	+0.42
7River Plate	1.76	1.75	1.77	2.15	+0.41
8Gimnasia La Plata	1.7	1.8	1.6	1.92	+0.35
9Lanús	1.6	1.73	1.47	1.88	+0.25
10Belgrano	1.6	1.6	1.6	1.43	+0.25
11Defensa y Justicia	1.53	1.6	1.47	1.89	+0.18
12Estudiantes	1.5	1.93	1.07	1	+0.15
13Independiente	1.43	1.33	1.53	1.13	+0.08
14Barracas Central	1.43	1.4	1.47	1.67	+0.08
15Huracán	1.37	1.67	1.07	1.16	+0.02
16Sarmiento	1.34	1.93	0.8	1.34	-0.01
17San Lorenzo	1.33	1.6	1.07	1.44	-0.02
18Gimnasia Mendoza	1.3	1.8	0.8	1.11	-0.05
19Unión	1.27	1.67	0.87	1.22	-0.08
20Newell's Old Boys	1.2	1.47	0.93	1.47	-0.15
21Talleres de Córdoba	1.17	1.27	1.07	0.64	-0.18
22Racing Club	1.1	1.13	1.07	0.88	-0.25
23Tigre	1.1	1.4	0.8	0.59	-0.25
24Banfield	1.07	1.33	0.8	1.03	-0.28
25Atlético Tucumán	1.03	0.93	1.13	1.14	-0.32
26Platense	1	0.8	1.2	1.03	-0.35
27Central Córdoba SdE	0.87	1.2	0.53	0.59	-0.48
28Deportivo Riestra	0.77	1.13	0.4	0.67	-0.58
29Aldosivi	0.63	1.13	0.13	0.96	-0.72
30Estudiantes Río Cuarto	0.47	0.8	0.13	0.58	-0.88

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

Instituto

PPG: 1.77WPPG: 2.34Gap: ↑ 0.57

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Independiente Rivadavia

PPG: 1.77WPPG: 1.21Gap: ↓ 0.56

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Talleres de Córdoba

PPG: 1.17WPPG: 0.64Gap: ↓ 0.53

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Tigre

PPG: 1.1WPPG: 0.59Gap: ↓ 0.51

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Estudiantes

PPG: 1.5WPPG: 1Gap: ↓ 0.50

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Worked Example — Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia

P(Argentinos Juniors) = 1.86 / (1.86+1.83) × 1.08

= 0.504 × 1.08 = 43.08% → Fair odds 2.32

P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)

= 26.37% → Fair odds 3.79

P(Independiente Rivadavia) = 1 − 43.08% − 26.37%

= 30.55% → Fair odds 3.27

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

1.13

Home xG (λ)

0.9

Away xG (λ)

2.03

Total E[goals]

1.2

League Avg Home

0.95

League Avg Away

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Huracán vs Tigre

29 Oct · Each cell shows the probability of that exact scoreline. Dixon-Coles corrected (ρ = -0.13). · Upcoming

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	14.9%	10.1%	5.3%	1.6%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
1	13.1%	15.1%	6.0%	1.8%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
2	8.4%	7.5%	3.4%	1.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
3	3.2%	2.8%	1.3%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
4	0.9%	0.8%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Most likely High Medium Low

Derived Markets

Home Win

39.08%

Fair odds: 2.56

Market: 2.10 (47.6%)

Draw

33.78%

Fair odds: 2.96

Market: 2.90 (34.5%)

Away Win

27.15%

Fair odds: 3.68

Market: 4.00 (25.0%)

Over 0.585.13%/ Under 14.87%Fair: 1.17

Over 1.561.93%/ Under 38.07%Fair: 1.61

Over 2.533.13%/ Under 66.87%Fair: 3.02

Over 3.514.81%/ Under 85.19%Fair: 6.75

Over 4.55.52%/ Under 94.48%Fair: 18.12

BTTS Yes41.91%Fair: 2.39

BTTS No58.09%Fair: 1.72

Correct Score — Top 12

11-1

15.1%D

20-0

14.87%D

31-0

13.11%H

40-1

10.09%A

52-0

8.39%H

62-1

7.55%H

71-2

6.01%A

80-2

5.32%A

92-2

3.4%D

103-0

3.16%H

113-1

2.84%H

121-3

1.8%A

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Where the low-score correction adds value

Plain Poisson

P(0-0) = 13.1%

P(1-0) = 14.8%

P(0-1) = 11.8%

P(1-1) = 13.4%

✗ Underestimates 0-0, 1-0, 0-1

Dixon-Coles (ρ correction)

P(0-0) = 14.9% (+1.7%)

P(1-0) = 13.1% (-1.7%)

P(0-1) = 10.1% (-1.7%)

P(1-1) = 15.1% (+1.7%)

✓ Fixes low-score underestimation

💡 Why does this matter? Draws in football are dominated by 0-0 and 1-1. Plain Poisson underprices these by 15–20%. Dixon-Coles corrects this, generating better ROI on draw markets.

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Poisson/Dixon-Coles model — xG computed only from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	166	56	33.73%	−$195.90	-11.8%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	55	30	54.55%	−$20.00	-3.64%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	16	5	31.25%	−$45.20	-28.25%
DC Draw (>28%)	143	39	27.27%	−$224.50	-15.7%
DC Over 2.5 Value	39	19	48.72%	+$71.00	+18.21%
DC BTTS Value	43	17	39.53%	−$69.30	-16.12%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Dixon-Coles bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	166	−$195.90	-11.8%	−$56.59	-40.08%	−$139.65	-8.51%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	55	−$20.00	-3.64%	−$37.19	-45.68%	−$4.84	-0.83%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	16	−$45.20	-28.25%	$0.00	0%	−$25.05	-16.77%
DC Draw (>28%)	143	−$224.50	-15.7%	−$9.68	-100%	−$213.99	-15.02%
DC Over 2.5 Value	39	+$71.00	+18.21%	−$0.97	-0.83%	+$72.31	+17.4%
DC BTTS Value	43	−$69.30	-16.12%	$0.00	0%	−$64.28	-14.38%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

Team	Att (H)	Def (H)	Att (A)	Def (A)	H GP	A GP
Independiente Rivadavia	1.83	1.33	0.91	1	15	15
Unión	1.39	1.12	1.4	1.5	15	15
Boca Juniors	1.13	0.45	1.64	0.89	14	16
Rosario Central	1.22	0.77	1.4	0.89	15	15
River Plate	1.25	0.99	1.3	0.58	16	13
Vélez Sarsfield	1.06	0.77	1.54	0.78	15	15
Gimnasia La Plata	1.28	1.19	1.19	1.11	15	15
Defensa y Justicia	1	0.98	1.4	1.11	15	15
Instituto	1.28	0.91	1.05	0.78	15	15
Independiente	1	1.33	1.26	0.83	15	15
Estudiantes	1.33	0.63	0.84	0.89	15	15
Lanús	0.94	0.77	1.26	0.78	15	15
Argentinos Juniors	1.17	0.56	0.98	0.89	15	15
Sarmiento	1.13	0.9	1.05	1.56	14	15
Banfield	1	1.19	0.98	1.22	15	15
Racing Club	0.89	1.33	1.05	0.94	15	15
Belgrano	1.06	0.98	0.84	0.56	15	15
Tigre	0.83	0.91	1.12	1	15	15
Gimnasia Mendoza	1.06	0.91	0.77	1.33	15	15
Talleres de Córdoba	0.83	1.19	1.05	1	15	15
Huracán	0.94	0.84	0.84	0.83	15	15
Newell's Old Boys	0.89	1.05	0.84	1.22	15	15
Atlético Tucumán	0.78	1.12	0.98	0.94	15	15
Barracas Central	0.83	0.91	0.91	0.72	15	15
Platense	0.5	1.33	1.05	0.89	15	15
Central Córdoba SdE	0.83	1.54	0.49	1.22	15	15
Aldosivi	0.61	0.98	0.7	1.5	15	15
San Lorenzo	0.78	1.05	0.49	0.61	15	15
Deportivo Riestra	0.67	0.77	0.21	0.83	15	15
Estudiantes Río Cuarto	0.44	1.12	0.42	1.5	15	15

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:: Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:: P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:: Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:: Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:: Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1Boca Juniors

1637

2Rosario Central

1604

3Argentinos Juniors

1600

4Instituto

1598

5Vélez Sarsfield

1594

6Gimnasia La Plata

1574

7River Plate

1561

8Lanús

1558

9Defensa y Justicia

1547

10Independiente Rivadavia

1544

11Belgrano

1525

12Barracas Central

1520

13Newell's Old Boys

1514

14Independiente

1513

15Huracán

1498

16San Lorenzo

1497

17Sarmiento

1490

18Estudiantes

1486

19Gimnasia Mendoza

1485

20Unión

1470

21Atlético Tucumán

1451

22Banfield

1449

23Platense

1448

24Talleres de Córdoba

1442

25Racing Club

1441

26Tigre

1427

27Deportivo Riestra

1416

28Central Córdoba SdE

1406

29Aldosivi

1377

30Estudiantes Río Cuarto

1327

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo Diff	P(Higher wins)	Fair Odds	Typical Matchup
0	50.0%	2.00	Evenly matched
50	57.1%	1.75	Mid vs mid-lower
100	64.0%	1.56	Top-8 vs bottom-8
150	70.3%	1.42	Top-4 vs relegation
200	76.0%	1.32	Leader vs bottom half
250	80.8%	1.24	Leader vs bottom 3
300	84.9%	1.18	Boca Juniors vs Estudiantes Río Cuarto
310 (current)	85.6%	1.17	Boca Juniors vs Estudiantes Río Cuarto

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

Boca JuniorsRosario CentralArgentinos JuniorsInstitutoVélez SarsfieldGimnasia La Plata

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#	Team	Elo	Peak	Δ	GP	W	D	L
1	Boca Juniors	1637	1637	+137	30	15	12	3
2	Rosario Central	1604	1604	+104	30	16	8	6
3	Argentinos Juniors	1600	1604	+100	30	16	9	5
4	Instituto	1598	1598	+98	30	16	5	9
5	Vélez Sarsfield	1594	1597	+94	30	14	13	3
6	Gimnasia La Plata	1574	1574	+74	30	15	6	9
7	River Plate	1561	1580	+61	29	16	3	10
8	Lanús	1558	1561	+58	30	13	9	8
9	Defensa y Justicia	1547	1555	+47	30	12	10	8
10	Independiente Rivadavia	1544	1593	+44	30	15	8	7
11	Belgrano	1525	1568	+25	30	13	9	8
12	Barracas Central	1520	1541	+20	30	11	10	9
13	Newell's Old Boys	1514	1518	+14	30	8	12	10
14	Independiente	1513	1559	+13	30	11	10	9
15	Huracán	1498	1540	-2	30	10	11	9
16	San Lorenzo	1497	1528	-3	30	10	10	10
17	Sarmiento	1490	1509	-10	29	12	3	14
18	Estudiantes	1486	1571	-14	30	13	6	11
19	Gimnasia Mendoza	1485	1540	-15	30	11	6	13
20	Unión	1470	1534	-30	30	10	8	12
21	Atlético Tucumán	1451	1500	-49	30	7	10	13
22	Banfield	1449	1500	-51	30	8	8	14
23	Platense	1448	1533	-52	30	6	12	12
24	Talleres de Córdoba	1442	1550	-58	30	9	8	13
25	Racing Club	1441	1543	-59	30	8	9	13
26	Tigre	1427	1557	-73	30	7	12	11
27	Deportivo Riestra	1416	1500	-84	30	3	14	13
28	Central Córdoba SdE	1406	1500	-94	30	6	8	16
29	Aldosivi	1377	1500	-123	30	3	10	17
30	Estudiantes Río Cuarto	1327	1500	-173	30	3	5	22

Elo Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	176	58	33%	+$339.70	+19.3%
Elo Favourite	196	93	47%	+$172.50	+8.8%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	32	22	69%	+$61.00	+19.06%
Elo Away Pick (>50%)	1	0	0%	−$10.00	-100%
Elo Draw (>28%)	76	22	29%	−$81.60	-10.74%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	176	+$339.70	+19.3%	+$184.40	+8.32%	+$248.08	+14.05%
Elo Favourite	196	+$172.50	+8.8%	+$52.62	+6.03%	+$134.46	+6.66%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	32	+$61.00	+19.06%	−$17.54	-10.52%	+$64.52	+20.17%
Elo Away Pick (>50%)	1	−$10.00	-100%	$0.00	0%	−$10.00	-100%
Elo Draw (>28%)	76	−$81.60	-10.74%	−$14.05	-90.76%	−$83.55	-11%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:: Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:: E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:: R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:: Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:: Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

Upcoming Fixtures — Value Identified by Each Model Independently

Min EV threshold2%

Show models

2Value bets found

2Multi-model consensus

+4.2%Avg EV found

Consensus across 3 models · Odds: H 2.10 · D 2.90 · A 4.00

Home Win

44.9%

Mkt implied: 47.6%

EV -2.7%

Draw

26.6%

Mkt implied: 34.5%

EV -7.9%

Away Win

28.5%

Mkt implied: 25.0%

EV +3.5%

PPG: H 41% D 26% A 33%Dixon-Coles: H 39% D 34% A 27%Elo: H 55% D 20% A 25%

Consensus across 0 model · Odds: H 0.00 · A 0.00

Home Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Away Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

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Primera División Argentina Prediction Models

Flat Betting Model

Odds Range Filter

Market ROI Summary

Staking Plan Comparison

By Team Bets

PPG Model

Odds Range Filter

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

PPG Ratings — All Teams

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Worked Example — Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Huracán vs Tigre

Derived Markets

Correct Score — Top 12

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Team Attack & Defense Strength

How Poisson Predictions Work

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

Elo → Win Probability Table

Elo Rating History — Top 6

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Elo Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

How Elo Ratings Work

Value Scanner

Upcoming Fixtures — Value Identified by Each Model Independently