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Primera A Colombia Prediction Models

2026

Flat Betting Model

132

Matches w/ Odds

$10

Stake Per Bet

+29.82%

Best: Under 2.5

-17.97%

Worst: Home Favorite

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for Primera A Colombia. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

Market	Bets	Wins	Win %	Staked	Return	P&L	ROI	Best Str.	Worst Str.
Home Bet	132	56	42.42%	$1320	$1247	−$73.00	-5.53%	5	10
Draw Bet	132	43	32.58%	$1320	$1582.4	+$262.40	+19.88%	4	10
Away Bet	132	33	25%	$1320	$1277.4	−$42.60	-3.23%	3	9
Over 2.5	128	56	43.75%	$1280	$1149.8	−$130.20	-10.17%	5	8
Under 2.5	128	72	56.25%	$1280	$1661.7	+$381.70	+29.82%	8	5
BTTS Yes	132	71	53.79%	$1320	$1412.8	+$92.80	+7.03%	6	5
Home Favorite	100	45	45%	$1000	$820.3	−$179.70	-17.97%	4	8
Away Underdog	78	16	20.51%	$780	$721	−$59.00	-7.56%	3	20
Favorite	132	58	43.94%	$1320	$1118.4	−$201.60	-15.27%	5	6
Underdog	132	31	23.48%	$1320	$1406	+$86.00	+6.52%	3	16

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

Market	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Home Bet	132	−$73.00	-5.53%	+$35.77	+34.08%	−$156.56	-11.69%
Draw Bet	132	+$262.40	+19.88%	+$67.03	+11.27%	+$230.78	+17.66%
Away Bet	132	−$42.60	-3.23%	−$48.42	-28.57%	−$81.91	-5.93%
Over 2.5	128	−$130.20	-10.17%	−$2.98	-8.81%	−$135.39	-10.17%
Under 2.5	128	+$381.70	+29.82%	+$447.88	+15.7%	+$397.92	+29.01%
BTTS Yes	132	+$92.80	+7.03%	−$17.14	-4.67%	+$91.62	+6.81%
Home Favorite	100	−$179.70	-17.97%	−$5.88	-23.85%	−$189.13	-18.18%
Away Underdog	78	−$59.00	-7.56%	−$24.13	-46.9%	+$23.48	+2.99%
Favorite	132	−$201.60	-15.27%	−$14.05	-18.84%	−$227.10	-16.65%
Underdog	132	+$86.00	+6.52%	−$17.53	-22.38%	+$113.60	+8.59%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

Team	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Cúcuta Deportivo	14	5	35.71%	+$80.90	+57.79%
Deportivo Pasto	13	3	23.08%	+$72.00	+55.38%
Independiente Santa Fe	13	8	61.54%	+$56.20	+43.23%
América de Cali	15	9	60%	+$40.10	+26.73%
Independiente Medellín	13	6	46.15%	+$25.60	+19.69%
Boyacá Chicó	13	4	30.77%	+$20.00	+15.38%
Deportivo Cali	13	6	46.15%	+$17.60	+13.54%
Atlético Nacional	13	8	61.54%	+$8.00	+6.15%
Alianza	14	4	28.57%	+$7.50	+5.36%
Llaneros	15	4	26.67%	−$8.90	-5.93%
Deportivo Pereira FC	13	2	15.38%	−$8.50	-6.54%
Águilas Doradas	16	5	31.25%	−$12.20	-7.63%
Atlético Bucaramanga	12	4	33.33%	−$15.50	-12.92%
Millonarios	13	5	38.46%	−$25.20	-19.38%
Jaguares de Córdoba FC	13	3	23.08%	−$37.60	-28.92%
Deportes Tolima	14	4	28.57%	−$52.20	-37.29%
Once Caldas	15	4	26.67%	−$58.00	-38.67%
Fortaleza CEIF	5	1	20%	−$31.70	-63.4%
Junior	13	2	15.38%	−$89.20	-68.62%
La Equidad	14	2	14.29%	−$104.50	-74.64%

PPG Model

Teams

1.33

League Avg PPG

1.08

Home Factor

λ=0.85

WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for Primera A Colombia. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	132	53	40.15%	−$250.50	-18.98%
PPG Home Pick	71	34	47.89%	−$140.90	-19.85%
PPG Away Pick	61	19	31.15%	−$109.60	-17.97%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	132	56	42.42%	+$34.50	+2.61%
PPG Value (fair < market)	132	39	29.55%	−$191.20	-14.48%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:: Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:: Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:: Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:: Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:: Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	132	−$250.50	-18.98%	−$40.48	-29.77%	−$252.22	-18.09%
PPG Home Pick	71	−$140.90	-19.85%	−$10.61	-74.56%	−$137.97	-18.92%
PPG Away Pick	61	−$109.60	-17.97%	−$38.21	-36.88%	−$98.59	-15%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	132	+$34.50	+2.61%	+$81.14	+14.75%	−$92.39	-6.56%
PPG Value (fair < market)	132	−$191.20	-14.48%	−$25.56	-28.44%	−$210.26	-16.82%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds	Result	✓
28 Oct	Boyacá Chicó vs Junior	Junior	47.13%	2.12	1 – 1	✗
27 Oct	Cúcuta Deportivo vs Águilas Doradas	Cúcuta Deportivo	40%	2.5	0 – 2	✗
27 Oct	Independiente Santa Fe vs Atlético Bucaramanga	Independiente Santa Fe	45.96%	2.18	2 – 1	✓
26 Oct	Jaguares de Córdoba FC vs Llaneros	Llaneros	41.88%	2.39	1 – 0	✗
26 Oct	Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto	Deportes Tolima	48.65%	2.06	0 – 1	✗

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds
28 Oct	Once Caldas vs Alianza	Once Caldas	52.72%	1.9
29 Oct	La Equidad vs Independiente Medellín	***	0%	0
29 Oct	América de Cali vs Fortaleza CEIF	🔒 Login or register for free to see predictions data.
30 Oct	Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Santa Fe
30 Oct	Deportivo Pereira FC vs Jaguares de Córdoba FC

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

Team	PPG ↓	H-PPG	A-PPG	WPPG	vs Avg
1Atlético Nacional	2.17	2.68	1.71	2.05	+0.84
2América de Cali	1.81	2.22	1.39	1.84	+0.48
3Independiente Santa Fe	1.66	1.85	1.44	2.09	+0.33
4Deportivo Cali	1.63	2	1.28	1.89	+0.30
5Millonarios	1.49	1.94	1.06	1.65	+0.16
6Once Caldas	1.49	1.72	1.26	1.36	+0.16
7Junior	1.46	1.67	1.25	1.27	+0.13
8Deportes Tolima	1.46	1.9	1	0.77	+0.13
9Independiente Medellín	1.44	1.5	1.38	1.14	+0.11
10Atlético Bucaramanga	1.41	1.69	1.17	1.36	+0.08
11Águilas Doradas	1.37	1.59	1.17	1.47	+0.04
12Deportivo Pasto	1.28	1.33	1.22	1.09	-0.05
13La Equidad	1.22	1.67	0.79	1.07	-0.11
14Llaneros	1.11	1.29	0.94	0.78	-0.22
15Cúcuta Deportivo	1.06	1.53	0.61	1.35	-0.27
16Alianza	1.03	1.11	0.94	1.62	-0.30
17Fortaleza CEIF	1	1.39	0.56	0.78	-0.33
18Boyacá Chicó	0.94	1.67	0.18	1.18	-0.39
19Jaguares de Córdoba FC	0.91	1.56	0.19	1.06	-0.42
20Deportivo Pereira FC	0.71	0.81	0.61	1.02	-0.62

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

Deportes Tolima

PPG: 1.46WPPG: 0.77Gap: ↓ 0.69

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Alianza

PPG: 1.03WPPG: 1.62Gap: ↑ 0.59

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Independiente Santa Fe

PPG: 1.66WPPG: 2.09Gap: ↑ 0.43

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Llaneros

PPG: 1.11WPPG: 0.78Gap: ↓ 0.33

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Deportivo Pereira FC

PPG: 0.71WPPG: 1.02Gap: ↑ 0.31

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Worked Example — Boyacá Chicó vs Junior

P(Boyacá Chicó) = 0.94 / (0.94+1.48) × 1.08

= 0.388 × 1.08 = 35.85% → Fair odds 2.79

P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)

= 17.02% → Fair odds 5.87

P(Junior) = 1 − 35.85% − 17.02%

= 47.13% → Fair odds 2.12

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

1.89

Home xG (λ)

0.89

Away xG (λ)

2.78

Total E[goals]

1.49

League Avg Home

1.03

League Avg Away

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Once Caldas vs Alianza

27 Oct · Each cell shows the probability of that exact scoreline. Dixon-Coles corrected (ρ = -0.13). · Upcoming

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7.6%	4.2%	2.5%	0.7%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
1	10.4%	11.8%	4.7%	1.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%
2	11.1%	9.9%	4.4%	1.3%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%
3	7.0%	6.2%	2.8%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
4	3.3%	3.0%	1.3%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
5	1.3%	1.1%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	0.4%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Most likely High Medium Low

Derived Markets

Home Win

59.38%

Fair odds: 1.68

Market: 1.44 (69.4%)

Draw

24.74%

Fair odds: 4.04

Market: 4.00 (25.0%)

Away Win

15.88%

Fair odds: 6.3

Market: 8.00 (12.5%)

Over 0.592.41%/ Under 7.59%Fair: 1.08

Over 1.577.83%/ Under 22.17%Fair: 1.28

Over 2.552.42%/ Under 47.58%Fair: 1.91

Over 3.530.12%/ Under 69.88%Fair: 3.32

Over 4.514.63%/ Under 85.37%Fair: 6.83

BTTS Yes51.36%Fair: 1.95

BTTS No48.64%Fair: 2.06

Correct Score — Top 12

11-1

11.83%D

22-0

11.12%H

31-0

10.4%H

42-1

9.9%H

50-0

7.59%D

63-0

7%H

73-1

6.23%H

81-2

4.66%A

92-2

4.4%D

100-1

4.18%A

114-0

3.31%H

124-1

2.95%H

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Where the low-score correction adds value

Plain Poisson

P(0-0) = 6.2%

P(1-0) = 11.7%

P(0-1) = 5.5%

P(1-1) = 10.4%

✗ Underestimates 0-0, 1-0, 0-1

Dixon-Coles (ρ correction)

P(0-0) = 7.6% (+1.4%)

P(1-0) = 10.4% (-1.3%)

P(0-1) = 4.2% (-1.3%)

P(1-1) = 11.8% (+1.4%)

✓ Fixes low-score underestimation

💡 Why does this matter? Draws in football are dominated by 0-0 and 1-1. Plain Poisson underprices these by 15–20%. Dixon-Coles corrects this, generating better ROI on draw markets.

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Poisson/Dixon-Coles model — xG computed only from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	107	47	43.93%	+$317.60	+29.68%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	53	30	56.6%	−$37.10	-7%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	12	5	41.67%	−$15.30	-12.75%
DC Draw (>28%)	70	23	32.86%	+$92.00	+13.14%
DC Over 2.5 Value	40	11	27.5%	−$178.00	-44.5%
DC BTTS Value	26	12	46.15%	−$17.50	-6.73%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Dixon-Coles bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	107	+$317.60	+29.68%	+$438.02	+63.74%	+$151.53	+13.33%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	53	−$37.10	-7%	+$0.17	+0.16%	−$42.00	-7.91%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	12	−$15.30	-12.75%	+$0.35	+6.17%	−$19.63	-14.61%
DC Draw (>28%)	70	+$92.00	+13.14%	−$5.54	-4.19%	+$67.54	+9.69%
DC Over 2.5 Value	40	−$178.00	-44.5%	$0.00	0%	−$176.81	-43.27%
DC BTTS Value	26	−$17.50	-6.73%	−$10.83	-24.88%	−$20.36	-7.84%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

Team	Att (H)	Def (H)	Att (A)	Def (A)	H GP	A GP
Atlético Nacional	1.62	0.46	1.53	0.8	19	21
Millonarios	1.18	0.63	1.35	0.97	17	18
América de Cali	1.34	0.54	1.02	0.78	18	18
Independiente Santa Fe	1.21	0.97	1.19	0.71	20	18
Atlético Bucaramanga	1.26	0.79	1.02	0.82	16	18
Junior	1.05	1.16	1.26	0.91	21	20
Once Caldas	1.12	1.19	1.18	0.74	18	19
Independiente Medellín	0.93	1.24	1.4	0.92	18	16
Deportivo Cali	0.99	0.57	1.02	0.6	17	18
Deportes Tolima	0.97	0.78	1.02	0.85	20	19
La Equidad	1.08	1.24	0.87	1.2	18	19
Águilas Doradas	0.95	1.26	0.92	0.86	17	18
Cúcuta Deportivo	0.95	1.2	0.86	1.42	17	18
Fortaleza CEIF	0.86	1.19	0.91	1.13	18	16
Deportivo Pasto	0.63	0.97	1.19	1.19	18	18
Jaguares de Córdoba FC	0.93	1.29	0.73	1.55	18	16
Llaneros	0.75	1.09	0.76	0.82	17	18
Alianza	0.63	1.4	0.73	1.13	18	16
Boyacá Chicó	0.89	0.76	0.23	1.74	18	17
Deportivo Pereira FC	0.59	1.33	0.65	1.08	16	18

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:: Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:: P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:: Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:: Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:: Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1Atlético Nacional

1641

2Independiente Santa Fe

1593

3América de Cali

1589

4Deportivo Cali

1579

5Millonarios

1554

6Atlético Bucaramanga

1527

7Once Caldas

1525

8Junior

1518

9Águilas Doradas

1514

10Independiente Medellín

1505

11Deportes Tolima

1487

12La Equidad

1469

13Cúcuta Deportivo

1463

14Alianza

1462

15Deportivo Pasto

1444

16Llaneros

1439

17Fortaleza CEIF

1437

18Boyacá Chicó

1427

19Deportivo Pereira FC

1414

20Jaguares de Córdoba FC

1414

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo Diff	P(Higher wins)	Fair Odds	Typical Matchup
0	50.0%	2.00	Evenly matched
50	57.1%	1.75	Mid vs mid-lower
100	64.0%	1.56	Top-8 vs bottom-8
150	70.3%	1.42	Top-4 vs relegation
200	76.0%	1.32	Leader vs bottom half
250	80.8%	1.24	Leader vs bottom 3
300	84.9%	1.18	Atlético Nacional vs Jaguares de Córdoba FC

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

Atlético NacionalIndependiente Santa FeAmérica de CaliDeportivo CaliMillonariosAtlético Bucaramanga

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#	Team	Elo	Peak	Δ	GP	W	D	L
1	Atlético Nacional	1641	1678	+141	40	28	3	9
2	Independiente Santa Fe	1593	1595	+93	38	16	15	7
3	América de Cali	1589	1600	+89	36	19	8	9
4	Deportivo Cali	1579	1583	+79	35	15	12	8
5	Millonarios	1554	1558	+54	35	13	13	9
6	Atlético Bucaramanga	1527	1560	+27	34	11	15	8
7	Once Caldas	1525	1571	+25	37	13	16	8
8	Junior	1518	1591	+18	41	16	12	13
9	Águilas Doradas	1514	1532	+14	35	12	12	11
10	Independiente Medellín	1505	1552	+5	34	14	7	13
11	Deportes Tolima	1487	1571	-13	39	15	12	12
12	La Equidad	1469	1560	-31	37	10	15	12
13	Cúcuta Deportivo	1463	1500	-37	35	9	10	16
14	Alianza	1462	1500	-38	34	8	11	15
15	Deportivo Pasto	1444	1578	-56	36	13	7	16
16	Llaneros	1439	1535	-61	35	9	12	14
17	Fortaleza CEIF	1437	1515	-63	34	6	16	12
18	Boyacá Chicó	1427	1500	-73	35	9	6	20
19	Deportivo Pereira FC	1414	1500	-86	34	3	15	16
20	Jaguares de Córdoba FC	1414	1513	-87	34	8	7	19

Elo Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	103	22	21%	−$51.50	-5%
Elo Favourite	132	54	41%	−$298.30	-22.6%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	34	19	56%	−$60.80	-17.88%
Elo Away Pick (>50%)	6	2	33%	−$20.80	-34.67%
Elo Draw (>28%)	37	13	35%	+$58.80	+15.89%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	103	−$51.50	-5%	−$9.82	-15.41%	−$68.20	-6.55%
Elo Favourite	132	−$298.30	-22.6%	−$30.36	-86.74%	−$310.46	-22.62%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	34	−$60.80	-17.88%	−$4.35	-86.65%	−$55.49	-16%
Elo Away Pick (>50%)	6	−$20.80	-34.67%	$0.00	0%	−$25.28	-40.56%
Elo Draw (>28%)	37	+$58.80	+15.89%	−$2.61	-6.19%	+$53.31	+14.53%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:: Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:: E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:: R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:: Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:: Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

Upcoming Fixtures — Value Identified by Each Model Independently

Min EV threshold2%

Show models

2Value bets found

2Multi-model consensus

+8.7%Avg EV found

Consensus across 3 models · Odds: H 1.44 · D 4.00 · A 8.00

Home Win

55.1%

Mkt implied: 69.4%

EV -14.3%

Draw

21.4%

Mkt implied: 25.0%

EV -3.5%

Away Win

23.4%

Mkt implied: 12.5%

EV +10.9%

PPG: H 53% D 19% A 29%Dixon-Coles: H 59% D 25% A 16%Elo: H 54% D 21% A 26%

Consensus across 0 model · Odds: H 0.00 · A 0.00

Home Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Away Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Consensus across 0 model · Odds: H 0.00 · A 0.00

Home Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Away Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

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Primera A Colombia Prediction Models

Flat Betting Model

Odds Range Filter

Market ROI Summary

Staking Plan Comparison

By Team Bets

PPG Model

Odds Range Filter

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

PPG Ratings — All Teams

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Worked Example — Boyacá Chicó vs Junior

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Once Caldas vs Alianza

Derived Markets

Correct Score — Top 12

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Team Attack & Defense Strength

How Poisson Predictions Work

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

Elo → Win Probability Table

Elo Rating History — Top 6

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Elo Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

How Elo Ratings Work

Value Scanner

Upcoming Fixtures — Value Identified by Each Model Independently