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Primeira Liga Portugal Prediction Models

2026/2027

Flat Betting Model

Matches w/ Odds

$10

Stake Per Bet

+60.12%

Best: Away Underdog

-18.62%

Worst: Home Bet

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for Primeira Liga Portugal. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

Market	Bets	Wins	Win %	Staked	Return	P&L	ROI	Best Str.	Worst Str.
Home Bet	81	30	37.04%	$810	$659.2	−$150.80	-18.62%	5	5
Draw Bet	81	18	22.22%	$810	$807.4	−$2.60	-0.32%	2	20
Away Bet	81	33	40.74%	$810	$1022.6	+$212.60	+26.25%	4	8
Over 2.5	81	45	55.56%	$810	$869.4	+$59.40	+7.33%	7	4
Under 2.5	81	36	44.44%	$810	$865	+$55.00	+6.79%	4	7
BTTS Yes	81	40	49.38%	$810	$797.1	−$12.90	-1.59%	9	7
Home Favorite	50	24	48%	$500	$421.6	−$78.40	-15.68%	6	5
Away Underdog	33	12	36.36%	$330	$528.4	+$198.40	+60.12%	3	5
Favorite	81	41	50.62%	$810	$706.6	−$103.40	-12.77%	8	6
Underdog	81	22	27.16%	$810	$975.2	+$165.20	+20.4%	2	10

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

Market	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Home Bet	81	−$150.80	-18.62%	−$52.98	-54.91%	−$114.34	-14.09%
Draw Bet	81	−$2.60	-0.32%	+$29.56	+9.37%	−$73.01	-8.74%
Away Bet	81	+$212.60	+26.25%	+$47.23	+39.07%	+$175.27	+20.74%
Over 2.5	81	+$59.40	+7.33%	−$8.38	-6.2%	+$59.74	+7.4%
Under 2.5	81	+$55.00	+6.79%	−$39.10	-25.31%	+$53.96	+6.26%
BTTS Yes	81	−$12.90	-1.59%	+$7.86	+15.76%	−$25.67	-3.15%
Home Favorite	50	−$78.40	-15.68%	−$24.93	-36.66%	−$78.29	-15.44%
Away Underdog	33	+$198.40	+60.12%	+$8.55	+11.82%	+$217.57	+62.32%
Favorite	81	−$103.40	-12.77%	−$40.52	-50.74%	−$92.91	-11.34%
Underdog	81	+$165.20	+20.4%	−$21.25	-32.84%	+$265.01	+32.09%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

Team	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Academico Viseu	9	5	55.56%	+$178.30	+198.11%
Arouca	9	5	55.56%	+$54.20	+60.22%
Porto	9	9	100%	+$44.00	+48.89%
Santa Clara	9	5	55.56%	+$31.10	+34.56%
Gil Vicente	9	4	44.44%	+$30.70	+34.11%
Moreirense	9	3	33.33%	+$12.00	+13.33%
Casa Pia	9	2	22.22%	+$6.50	+7.22%
Alverca	9	3	33.33%	+$2.70	+3%
Nacional	9	2	22.22%	−$1.90	-2.11%
Benfica	9	7	77.78%	−$2.40	-2.67%
Estrela	9	2	22.22%	−$4.00	-4.44%
Marítimo	9	2	22.22%	−$14.50	-16.11%
Sporting CP	9	5	55.56%	−$16.80	-18.67%
Rio Ave	9	2	22.22%	−$26.90	-29.89%
Sporting Braga	9	3	33.33%	−$37.30	-41.44%
Famalicão	9	2	22.22%	−$48.20	-53.56%
Vitória Guimarães	9	2	22.22%	−$55.70	-61.89%
Estoril	9	0	0%	−$90.00	-100%

PPG Model

Teams

1.39

League Avg PPG

1.08

Home Factor

λ=0.85

WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for Primeira Liga Portugal. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	66	38	57.58%	+$168.00	+25.45%
PPG Home Pick	31	17	54.84%	+$9.40	+3.03%
PPG Away Pick	35	21	60%	+$158.60	+45.31%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	68	38	55.88%	+$136.30	+20.04%
PPG Value (fair < market)	72	30	41.67%	+$203.70	+28.29%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:: Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:: Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:: Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:: Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:: Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	66	+$168.00	+25.45%	+$67.14	+18.83%	+$93.13	+14.01%
PPG Home Pick	31	+$9.40	+3.03%	+$3.46	+2.8%	−$9.42	-3.13%
PPG Away Pick	35	+$158.60	+45.31%	+$3.16	+2.54%	+$118.26	+30.77%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	68	+$136.30	+20.04%	+$24.63	+6.55%	+$75.25	+11.02%
PPG Value (fair < market)	72	+$203.70	+28.29%	+$69.19	+12.59%	+$134.25	+21.39%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds	Result	✓
26 Oct	Santa Clara vs Benfica	Santa Clara	41.87%	2.39	1 – 2	✗
25 Oct	Sporting CP vs Academico Viseu	Sporting CP	50.27%	1.99	1 – 2	✗
25 Oct	Rio Ave vs Famalicão	Rio Ave	42.59%	2.35	0 – 4	✗
25 Oct	Nacional vs Sporting Braga	Sporting Braga	64.11%	1.56	1 – 0	✗
25 Oct	Estoril vs Moreirense	Moreirense	73.06%	1.37	1 – 3	✓

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds
30 Oct	Casa Pia vs Sporting CP	Sporting CP	57.95%	1.73
31 Oct	Moreirense vs Estrela	***	0%	0
31 Oct	Porto vs Estoril	🔒 Login or register for free to see predictions data.
01 Nov	Arouca vs Nacional
01 Nov	Marítimo vs Santa Clara

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

Team	PPG ↓	H-PPG	A-PPG	WPPG	vs Avg
1Porto	3	3	3	3	+1.61
2Benfica	2.44	2.5	2.4	2.47	+1.05
3Sporting CP	2	2	2	1.79	+0.61
4Santa Clara	2	1.6	2.5	1.85	+0.61
5Arouca	1.89	2.25	1.6	1.93	+0.50
6Academico Viseu	1.89	1.5	2.2	2.3	+0.50
7Gil Vicente	1.56	1.4	1.75	1.29	+0.17
8Alverca	1.22	1	1.5	1.43	-0.17
9Moreirense	1.22	1	1.4	1.36	-0.17
10Sporting Braga	1.22	1.5	1	1.03	-0.17
11Famalicão	1.11	0.5	1.6	1.37	-0.28
12Estrela	1.11	1	1.25	0.85	-0.28
13Marítimo	0.89	1	0.8	0.56	-0.50
14Vitória Guimarães	0.89	1.6	0	1.05	-0.50
15Casa Pia	0.78	0	1.4	1.11	-0.61
16Rio Ave	0.78	0.8	0.75	0.84	-0.61
17Nacional	0.78	1.2	0.25	0.83	-0.61
18Estoril	0.22	0.4	0	0.16	-1.17

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

Academico Viseu

PPG: 1.89WPPG: 2.3Gap: ↑ 0.41

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Casa Pia

PPG: 0.78WPPG: 1.11Gap: ↑ 0.33

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Marítimo

PPG: 0.89WPPG: 0.56Gap: ↓ 0.33

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Gil Vicente

PPG: 1.56WPPG: 1.29Gap: ↓ 0.27

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Estrela

PPG: 1.11WPPG: 0.85Gap: ↓ 0.26

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Worked Example — Santa Clara vs Benfica

P(Santa Clara) = 2.25 / (2.25+2.38) × 1.08

= 0.486 × 1.08 = 41.87% → Fair odds 2.39

P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)

= 25.34% → Fair odds 3.95

P(Benfica) = 1 − 41.87% − 25.34%

= 32.79% → Fair odds 3.05

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

0.25

Home xG (λ)

Away xG (λ)

3.25

Total E[goals]

1.27

League Avg Home

1.47

League Avg Away

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Casa Pia vs Sporting CP

29 Oct · Each cell shows the probability of that exact scoreline. Dixon-Coles corrected (ρ = -0.13). · Upcoming

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	4.4%	11.6%	18.1%	18.1%	13.5%	8.1%	4.1%
1	0.6%	3.4%	4.5%	4.5%	3.4%	2.0%	1.0%
2	0.1%	0.4%	0.6%	0.6%	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%
3	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Most likely High Medium Low

Derived Markets

Home Win

1.21%

Fair odds: 82.57

Draw

8.42%

Fair odds: 11.88

Away Win

90.37%

Fair odds: 1.11

Over 0.595.6%/ Under 4.4%Fair: 1.05

Over 1.583.34%/ Under 16.66%Fair: 1.2

Over 2.561.76%/ Under 38.24%Fair: 1.62

Over 3.538.81%/ Under 61.19%Fair: 2.58

Over 4.520.16%/ Under 79.84%Fair: 4.96

BTTS Yes21.37%Fair: 4.68

BTTS No78.63%Fair: 1.27

Correct Score — Top 12

10-2

18.05%A

20-3

18.05%A

30-4

13.54%A

40-1

11.64%A

50-5

8.12%A

61-2

4.51%A

71-3

4.51%A

80-0

4.4%D

90-6

4.06%A

101-1

3.4%D

111-4

3.39%A

121-5

2.03%A

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Where the low-score correction adds value

Plain Poisson

P(0-0) = 3.9%

P(1-0) = 1.0%

P(0-1) = 11.6%

P(1-1) = 2.9%

✗ Underestimates 0-0, 1-0, 0-1

Dixon-Coles (ρ correction)

P(0-0) = 4.4% (+0.5%)

P(1-0) = 0.6% (-0.4%)

P(0-1) = 11.6% (+0.0%)

P(1-1) = 3.4% (+0.5%)

✓ Fixes low-score underestimation

💡 Why does this matter? Draws in football are dominated by 0-0 and 1-1. Plain Poisson underprices these by 15–20%. Dixon-Coles corrects this, generating better ROI on draw markets.

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Poisson/Dixon-Coles model — xG computed only from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	40	13	32.5%	+$6.20	+1.55%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	12	6	50%	−$27.20	-22.67%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	10	4	40%	−$34.70	-34.7%
DC Draw (>28%)	21	4	19.05%	−$12.30	-5.86%
DC Over 2.5 Value	17	9	52.94%	+$9.00	+5.29%
DC BTTS Value	12	3	25%	−$60.50	-50.42%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Dixon-Coles bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	40	+$6.20	+1.55%	−$1.48	-0.9%	−$33.02	-9.53%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	12	−$27.20	-22.67%	−$6.37	-100%	−$12.81	-11.97%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	10	−$34.70	-34.7%	$0.00	0%	−$21.76	-23.52%
DC Draw (>28%)	21	−$12.30	-5.86%	+$15.21	+38.58%	−$55.30	-25.89%
DC Over 2.5 Value	17	+$9.00	+5.29%	−$3.83	-2.59%	−$1.11	-0.69%
DC BTTS Value	12	−$60.50	-50.42%	$0.00	0%	−$62.95	-51.29%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

Team	Att (H)	Def (H)	Att (A)	Def (A)	H GP	A GP
Benfica	1.77	0.68	2.31	0.63	4	5
Sporting CP	1.73	0.95	1.7	0.79	5	4
Porto	1.77	0.34	1.63	0.31	4	5
Famalicão	0.59	1.19	1.5	0.63	4	5
Estrela	0.94	1.22	1.36	1.57	5	4
Alverca	0.79	0.82	1.36	1.38	5	4
Academico Viseu	0.79	1.02	1.22	0.79	4	5
Santa Clara	1.26	0.54	0.85	0.39	5	4
Arouca	1.57	0.51	0.54	0.63	4	5
Moreirense	0.98	1.36	0.82	1.26	4	5
Vitória Guimarães	1.1	0.27	0.51	1.57	5	4
Nacional	0.94	1.36	0.68	1.57	5	4
Marítimo	0.79	1.19	0.68	1.89	4	5
Sporting Braga	0.79	0.85	0.68	0.94	4	5
Gil Vicente	0.63	0.41	0.68	0.79	5	4
Rio Ave	0.94	2.04	0.34	1.18	5	4
Estoril	0.47	1.09	0.34	1.38	5	4
Casa Pia	0.2	2.21	0.54	0.63	4	5

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:: Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:: P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:: Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:: Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:: Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1Porto

1625

2Benfica

1588

3Academico Viseu

1555

4Santa Clara

1548

5Arouca

1547

6Sporting CP

1546

7Gil Vicente

1508

8Famalicão

1495

9Moreirense

1489

10Alverca

1488

11Sporting Braga

1484

12Estrela

1473

13Vitória Guimarães

1459

14Casa Pia

1458

15Marítimo

1457

16Rio Ave

1443

17Nacional

1438

18Estoril

1399

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo Diff	P(Higher wins)	Fair Odds	Typical Matchup
0	50.0%	2.00	Evenly matched
50	57.1%	1.75	Mid vs mid-lower
100	64.0%	1.56	Top-8 vs bottom-8
150	70.3%	1.42	Top-4 vs relegation
200	76.0%	1.32	Leader vs bottom half
250	80.8%	1.24	Leader vs bottom 3
300	84.9%	1.18	Porto vs Estoril

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

PortoBenficaAcademico ViseuSanta ClaraAroucaSporting CP

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#	Team	Elo	Peak	Δ	GP	W	D	L
1	Porto	1625	1625	+125	9	9	0	0
2	Benfica	1588	1588	+88	9	7	1	1
3	Academico Viseu	1555	1555	+55	9	5	2	2
4	Santa Clara	1548	1567	+48	9	5	3	1
5	Arouca	1547	1547	+47	9	5	2	2
6	Sporting CP	1546	1567	+46	9	5	3	1
7	Gil Vicente	1508	1542	+8	9	4	2	3
8	Famalicão	1495	1503	-5	9	2	4	3
9	Moreirense	1489	1503	-11	9	3	2	4
10	Alverca	1488	1506	-12	9	3	2	4
11	Sporting Braga	1484	1518	-16	9	3	2	4
12	Estrela	1473	1527	-27	9	2	4	3
13	Vitória Guimarães	1459	1500	-41	9	2	2	5
14	Casa Pia	1458	1500	-42	9	2	1	6
15	Marítimo	1457	1532	-43	9	2	2	5
16	Rio Ave	1443	1500	-57	9	2	1	6
17	Nacional	1438	1516	-62	9	2	1	6
18	Estoril	1399	1500	-101	9	0	2	7

Elo Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	56	15	27%	+$73.70	+13.16%
Elo Favourite	63	27	43%	−$92.00	-14.6%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	2	2	100%	+$15.50	+77.5%
Elo Draw (>28%)	23	6	26%	−$8.10	-3.52%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	56	+$73.70	+13.16%	−$29.27	-47.16%	+$118.28	+22.07%
Elo Favourite	63	−$92.00	-14.6%	−$57.61	-46.51%	−$70.87	-11.06%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	2	+$15.50	+77.5%	$0.00	0%	+$17.54	+60.78%
Elo Draw (>28%)	23	−$8.10	-3.52%	−$7.01	-12.59%	+$9.42	+3.91%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:: Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:: E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:: R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:: Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:: Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

No upcoming matches with odds available. Please check back later.

Primeira Liga Portugal Prediction Models

Flat Betting Model

Odds Range Filter

Market ROI Summary

Staking Plan Comparison

By Team Bets

PPG Model

Odds Range Filter

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

PPG Ratings — All Teams

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Worked Example — Santa Clara vs Benfica

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Casa Pia vs Sporting CP

Derived Markets

Correct Score — Top 12

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Team Attack & Defense Strength

How Poisson Predictions Work

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

Elo → Win Probability Table

Elo Rating History — Top 6

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Elo Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

How Elo Ratings Work

Value Scanner