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Premier Soccer League Zimbabwe Prediction Models

2026

Flat Betting Model

Matches w/ Odds

$10

Stake Per Bet

+122.5%

Best: Under 2.5

-100%

Worst: Draw Bet

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for Premier Soccer League Zimbabwe. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

Market	Bets	Wins	Win %	Staked	Return	P&L	ROI	Best Str.	Worst Str.
Home Bet	2	2	100%	$20	$39.3	+$19.30	+96.5%	2	0
Draw Bet	2	0	0%	$20	$0	−$20.00	-100%	0	2
Away Bet	2	0	0%	$20	$0	−$20.00	-100%	0	2
Over 2.5	2	0	0%	$20	$0	−$20.00	-100%	0	2
Under 2.5	2	2	100%	$20	$44.5	+$24.50	+122.5%	2	0
BTTS Yes	2	0	0%	$20	$0	−$20.00	-100%	0	2
Home Favorite	2	2	100%	$20	$39.3	+$19.30	+96.5%	2	0
Away Underdog	2	0	0%	$20	$0	−$20.00	-100%	0	2
Favorite	2	2	100%	$20	$39.3	+$19.30	+96.5%	2	0
Underdog	2	0	0%	$20	$0	−$20.00	-100%	0	2

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

Market	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Home Bet	2	+$19.30	+96.5%	$0.00	0%	+$17.32	+94.76%
Draw Bet	2	−$20.00	-100%	$0.00	0%	−$20.69	-100%
Away Bet	2	−$20.00	-100%	$0.00	0%	−$24.58	-100%
Over 2.5	2	−$20.00	-100%	$0.00	0%	−$20.00	-100%
Under 2.5	2	+$24.50	+122.5%	$0.00	0%	+$24.56	+122.5%
BTTS Yes	2	−$20.00	-100%	$0.00	0%	−$21.33	-100%
Home Favorite	2	+$19.30	+96.5%	$0.00	0%	+$17.32	+94.76%
Away Underdog	2	−$20.00	-100%	$0.00	0%	−$24.58	-100%
Favorite	2	+$19.30	+96.5%	$0.00	0%	+$17.32	+94.76%
Underdog	2	−$20.00	-100%	$0.00	0%	−$24.58	-100%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

Team	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Dynamos	1	1	100%	+$11.50	+115%
Highlanders	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
Platinum	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
Chicken Inn	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
Ngezi Platinum	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
Kariba	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
CAPS United	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
Triangle United	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
Bulawayo Chiefs	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
Manica Diamonds	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
Simba Bhora	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
Hunters	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
Scotland Mabvuku	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
MWOS	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
Agama	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
Hardrock	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
Herentals	2	1	50%	−$2.20	-11%
TelOne	1	0	0%	−$10.00	-100%

PPG Model

Teams

1.32

League Avg PPG

1.08

Home Factor

λ=0.85

WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for Premier Soccer League Zimbabwe. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	2	1	50%	−$2.20	-11%
PPG Home Pick	1	1	100%	+$7.80	+78%
PPG Away Pick	1	0	0%	−$10.00	-100%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	2	1	50%	−$2.20	-11%
PPG Value (fair < market)	2	2	100%	+$19.30	+96.5%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:: Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:: Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:: Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:: Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:: Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	2	−$2.20	-11%	$0.00	0%	+$2.86	+19.14%
PPG Home Pick	1	+$7.80	+78%	$0.00	0%	+$7.80	+78%
PPG Away Pick	1	−$10.00	-100%	$0.00	0%	−$10.00	-100%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	2	−$2.20	-11%	$0.00	0%	+$2.86	+19.14%
PPG Value (fair < market)	2	+$19.30	+96.5%	$0.00	0%	+$17.32	+94.75%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds	Result	✓
25 Oct	Triangle United vs Simba Bhora	Simba Bhora	48.42%	2.07	2 – 0	✗
25 Oct	Manica Diamonds vs Bulawayo Chiefs	Bulawayo Chiefs	44.8%	2.23	0 – 1	✓
25 Oct	Hunters vs Highlanders	Hunters	39.76%	2.51	1 – 1	✗
25 Oct	Hardrock vs MWOS	Hardrock	54.34%	1.84	3 – 2	✓
25 Oct	Agama vs TelOne	Agama	49.6%	2.02	3 – 2	✓

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds
29 Oct	CAPS United vs Scotland Mabvuku	CAPS United	39.66%	2.52
04 Nov	Scotland Mabvuku vs Chicken Inn	🔒 Login or register for free to see predictions data.

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

Team	PPG ↓	H-PPG	A-PPG	WPPG	vs Avg
1Hardrock	2.16	2.06	2.25	2.66	+0.84
2Scotland Mabvuku	2.03	2	2.07	1.81	+0.71
3Ngezi Platinum	1.75	2	1.5	1.84	+0.43
4CAPS United	1.65	1.8	1.5	1.66	+0.33
5Dynamos	1.63	1.56	1.69	1.29	+0.31
6Herentals	1.5	1.69	1.31	0.96	+0.18
7MWOS	1.41	1.69	1.13	1.5	+0.09
8Chicken Inn	1.39	1.5	1.27	1.54	+0.07
9Highlanders	1.38	1.5	1.25	1.04	+0.06
10Platinum	1.34	1.38	1.31	1.5	+0.02
11Simba Bhora	1.22	1.44	1	0.98	-0.10
12Hunters	1.13	1.19	1.06	1.6	-0.19
13Bulawayo Chiefs	1.06	1.13	1	1.06	-0.26
14Kariba	1.03	1.31	0.75	0.99	-0.29
15Agama	0.97	1.13	0.81	1.47	-0.35
16Triangle United	0.84	0.88	0.81	1.39	-0.48
17TelOne	0.69	0.56	0.81	0.53	-0.63
18Manica Diamonds	0.66	1	0.31	0.55	-0.66

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

Triangle United

PPG: 0.84WPPG: 1.39Gap: ↑ 0.55

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Herentals

PPG: 1.5WPPG: 0.96Gap: ↓ 0.54

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Hardrock

PPG: 2.16WPPG: 2.66Gap: ↑ 0.50

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Agama

PPG: 0.97WPPG: 1.47Gap: ↑ 0.50

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Hunters

PPG: 1.13WPPG: 1.6Gap: ↑ 0.47

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Worked Example — Triangle United vs Simba Bhora

P(Triangle United) = 0.77 / (0.77+1.26) × 1.08

= 0.379 × 1.08 = 35.2% → Fair odds 2.84

P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)

= 16.38% → Fair odds 6.11

P(Simba Bhora) = 1 − 35.2% − 16.38%

= 48.42% → Fair odds 2.07

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

0.59

Home xG (λ)

1.33

Away xG (λ)

1.92

Total E[goals]

1.05

League Avg Home

0.84

League Avg Away

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — CAPS United vs Scotland Mabvuku

28 Oct · Each cell shows the probability of that exact scoreline. Dixon-Coles corrected (ρ = -0.13). · Upcoming

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	16.2%	18.0%	13.0%	5.8%	1.9%	0.5%	0.1%
1	7.2%	13.0%	7.7%	3.4%	1.1%	0.3%	0.1%
2	2.5%	3.4%	2.3%	1.0%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%
3	0.5%	0.7%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
4	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Most likely High Medium Low

Derived Markets

Home Win

15.02%

Fair odds: 6.66

Draw

31.63%

Fair odds: 3.16

Away Win

53.34%

Fair odds: 1.87

Over 0.583.84%/ Under 16.16%Fair: 1.19

Over 1.558.67%/ Under 41.33%Fair: 1.7

Over 2.530.14%/ Under 69.86%Fair: 3.32

Over 3.512.83%/ Under 87.17%Fair: 7.79

Over 4.54.53%/ Under 95.47%Fair: 22.08

BTTS Yes34.27%Fair: 2.92

BTTS No65.73%Fair: 1.52

Correct Score — Top 12

10-1

18.01%A

20-0

16.16%D

31-1

13.01%D

40-2

12.97%A

51-2

7.65%A

61-0

7.16%H

70-3

5.75%A

82-1

3.4%H

91-3

3.39%A

102-0

2.55%H

112-2

2.26%D

120-4

1.91%A

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Where the low-score correction adds value

Plain Poisson

P(0-0) = 14.7%

P(1-0) = 8.7%

P(0-1) = 19.5%

P(1-1) = 11.5%

✗ Underestimates 0-0, 1-0, 0-1

Dixon-Coles (ρ correction)

P(0-0) = 16.2% (+1.5%)

P(1-0) = 7.2% (-1.5%)

P(0-1) = 18.0% (-1.5%)

P(1-1) = 13.0% (+1.5%)

✓ Fixes low-score underestimation

💡 Why does this matter? Draws in football are dominated by 0-0 and 1-1. Plain Poisson underprices these by 15–20%. Dixon-Coles corrects this, generating better ROI on draw markets.

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Poisson/Dixon-Coles model — xG computed only from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
DC Home Pick (>50%)	1	1	100%	+$7.80	+78%
DC Draw (>28%)	1	0	0%	−$10.00	-100%
DC Over 2.5 Value	1	0	0%	−$10.00	-100%
DC BTTS Value	1	0	0%	−$10.00	-100%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Dixon-Coles bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
DC Home Pick (>50%)	1	+$7.80	+78%	$0.00	0%	+$7.80	+78%
DC Draw (>28%)	1	−$10.00	-100%	$0.00	0%	−$10.00	-100%
DC Over 2.5 Value	1	−$10.00	-100%	$0.00	0%	−$10.00	-100%
DC BTTS Value	1	−$10.00	-100%	$0.00	0%	−$10.00	-100%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

Team	Att (H)	Def (H)	Att (A)	Def (A)	H GP	A GP
Hardrock	2.26	1.12	1.41	0.36	16	16
Scotland Mabvuku	1.52	0.32	1.67	0.44	15	15
Dynamos	1.25	0.82	1.49	0.77	16	16
Ngezi Platinum	1.31	1.12	1.26	0.65	16	16
CAPS United	1.27	0.95	1.19	0.77	15	16
MWOS	1.13	0.82	1.12	0.83	16	16
Herentals	1.25	1.34	0.82	0.89	16	16
Simba Bhora	1.25	1.12	0.74	1.07	16	16
Hunters	0.77	1.12	1.04	1.31	16	16
Highlanders	0.71	0.6	1.12	0.89	16	16
Bulawayo Chiefs	0.65	1.04	1.12	1.37	16	16
Chicken Inn	0.65	0.82	0.95	0.83	16	15
TelOne	0.65	1.79	0.97	1.43	16	16
Triangle United	0.71	1.12	0.82	1.37	16	16
Platinum	0.77	0.97	0.67	0.54	16	16
Agama	0.77	1.19	0.67	1.55	16	16
Kariba	0.54	0.52	0.67	1.19	16	16
Manica Diamonds	0.6	1.19	0.3	1.73	16	16

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:: Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:: P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:: Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:: Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:: Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1Hardrock

1660

2Scotland Mabvuku

1620

3Ngezi Platinum

1578

4Dynamos

1566

5CAPS United

1554

6MWOS

1525

7Platinum

1523

8Chicken Inn

1516

9Highlanders

1512

10Hunters

1492

11Herentals

1486

12Simba Bhora

1465

13Kariba

1452

14Bulawayo Chiefs

1443

15Triangle United

1438

16Agama

1437

17TelOne

1371

18Manica Diamonds

1361

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo Diff	P(Higher wins)	Fair Odds	Typical Matchup
0	50.0%	2.00	Evenly matched
50	57.1%	1.75	Mid vs mid-lower
100	64.0%	1.56	Top-8 vs bottom-8
150	70.3%	1.42	Top-4 vs relegation
200	76.0%	1.32	Leader vs bottom half
250	80.8%	1.24	Leader vs bottom 3
300	84.9%	1.18	Hardrock vs Manica Diamonds

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

HardrockScotland MabvukuNgezi PlatinumDynamosCAPS UnitedMWOS

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#	Team	Elo	Peak	Δ	GP	W	D	L
1	Hardrock	1660	1660	+160	32	21	6	5
2	Scotland Mabvuku	1620	1651	+120	30	17	10	3
3	Ngezi Platinum	1578	1582	+78	32	14	14	4
4	Dynamos	1566	1597	+66	32	12	16	4
5	CAPS United	1554	1575	+54	31	13	12	6
6	MWOS	1525	1535	+25	32	11	12	9
7	Platinum	1523	1536	+23	32	9	16	7
8	Chicken Inn	1516	1529	+16	31	11	10	10
9	Highlanders	1512	1575	+12	32	9	17	6
10	Hunters	1492	1501	-8	32	7	15	10
11	Herentals	1486	1570	-14	32	14	6	12
12	Simba Bhora	1465	1544	-35	32	9	12	11
13	Kariba	1452	1519	-48	32	6	15	11
14	Bulawayo Chiefs	1443	1521	-57	32	8	10	14
15	Triangle United	1438	1500	-62	32	6	9	17
16	Agama	1437	1500	-63	32	8	7	17
17	TelOne	1371	1500	-129	32	4	10	18
18	Manica Diamonds	1361	1500	-139	32	4	9	19

Elo Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	1	1	100%	+$7.80	+78%
Elo Favourite	2	2	100%	+$19.30	+96.5%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	1	1	100%	+$7.80	+78%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	1	+$7.80	+78%	$0.00	0%	+$7.80	+78%
Elo Favourite	2	+$19.30	+96.5%	$0.00	0%	+$17.32	+94.75%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	1	+$7.80	+78%	$0.00	0%	+$7.80	+78%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:: Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:: E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:: R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:: Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:: Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

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Premier Soccer League Zimbabwe Prediction Models

Flat Betting Model

Odds Range Filter

Market ROI Summary

Staking Plan Comparison

By Team Bets

PPG Model

Odds Range Filter

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

PPG Ratings — All Teams

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Worked Example — Triangle United vs Simba Bhora

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — CAPS United vs Scotland Mabvuku

Derived Markets

Correct Score — Top 12

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Team Attack & Defense Strength

How Poisson Predictions Work

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

Elo → Win Probability Table

Elo Rating History — Top 6

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Elo Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

How Elo Ratings Work

Value Scanner