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Premier League Zambia Prediction Models

2026/2027

Flat Betting Model

Matches w/ Odds

$10

Stake Per Bet

+31.08%

Best: Draw Bet

-73.08%

Worst: Away Bet

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for Premier League Zambia. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

Market	Bets	Wins	Win %	Staked	Return	P&L	ROI	Best Str.	Worst Str.
Home Bet	13	6	46.15%	$130	$97.8	−$32.20	-24.77%	2	3
Draw Bet	13	6	46.15%	$130	$170.4	+$40.40	+31.08%	2	2
Away Bet	13	1	7.69%	$130	$35	−$95.00	-73.08%	1	12
Over 2.5	13	5	38.46%	$130	$133.5	+$3.50	+2.69%	2	3
Under 2.5	13	8	61.54%	$130	$121.8	−$8.20	-6.31%	3	2
BTTS Yes	13	5	38.46%	$130	$125.2	−$4.80	-3.69%	2	5
Home Favorite	12	6	50%	$120	$97.8	−$22.20	-18.5%	2	3
Away Underdog	12	1	8.33%	$120	$35	−$85.00	-70.83%	1	11
Favorite	13	6	46.15%	$130	$97.8	−$32.20	-24.77%	2	3
Underdog	13	1	7.69%	$130	$35	−$95.00	-73.08%	1	12

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

Market	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Home Bet	13	−$32.20	-24.77%	−$6.42	-100%	−$21.40	-14.59%
Draw Bet	13	+$40.40	+31.08%	−$9.99	-34.11%	+$51.09	+39.25%
Away Bet	13	−$95.00	-73.08%	$0.00	0%	−$90.50	-72.11%
Over 2.5	13	+$3.50	+2.69%	−$4.96	-100%	+$4.89	+3.61%
Under 2.5	13	−$8.20	-6.31%	−$7.70	-100%	−$7.87	-5.36%
BTTS Yes	13	−$4.80	-3.69%	−$9.20	-18.85%	−$9.19	-7.11%
Home Favorite	12	−$22.20	-18.5%	−$0.60	-100%	−$14.93	-10.65%
Away Underdog	12	−$85.00	-70.83%	$0.00	0%	−$72.71	-67.51%
Favorite	13	−$32.20	-24.77%	−$4.74	-100%	−$22.38	-15.16%
Underdog	13	−$95.00	-73.08%	$0.00	0%	−$88.15	-71.58%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

Team	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Kabwe Warriors	1	1	100%	+$8.00	+80%
Green Eagles	2	1	50%	+$15.00	+75%
Power Dynamos	2	2	100%	+$9.60	+48%
Konkola Blades	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
Nkana	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
Red Arrows	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
Chirundu Utd	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
Zanaco	2	1	50%	−$0.50	-2.5%
Maestro United Zambia	2	1	50%	−$3.50	-17.5%
ZESCO United	2	1	50%	−$5.80	-29%
Green Buffaloes	2	0	0%	−$20.00	-100%
Nchanga Rangers	1	0	0%	−$10.00	-100%
Nkwazi	2	0	0%	−$20.00	-100%
Roan United	1	0	0%	−$10.00	-100%
NAPSA Stars	2	0	0%	−$20.00	-100%
Mufulira Wanderers	2	0	0%	−$20.00	-100%
Kansanshi Dynamos	1	0	0%	−$10.00	-100%
Mutondo Stars	2	0	0%	−$20.00	-100%
Trident	1	0	0%	−$10.00	-100%
Makeni All Stars	1	0	0%	−$10.00	-100%

PPG Model

Teams

1.37

League Avg PPG

1.08

Home Factor

λ=0.85

WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for Premier League Zambia. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	7	4	57.14%	−$6.50	-9.29%
PPG Home Pick	6	4	66.67%	+$3.50	+5.83%
PPG Away Pick	1	0	0%	−$10.00	-100%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	9	4	44.44%	−$26.50	-29.44%
PPG Value (fair < market)	10	5	50%	−$17.00	-17%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:: Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:: Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:: Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:: Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:: Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	7	−$6.50	-9.29%	−$11.11	-100%	+$3.56	+5.03%
PPG Home Pick	6	+$3.50	+5.83%	$0.00	0%	+$10.45	+16.35%
PPG Away Pick	1	−$10.00	-100%	$0.00	0%	−$10.00	-100%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	9	−$26.50	-29.44%	−$24.82	-100%	−$5.77	-7.03%
PPG Value (fair < market)	10	−$17.00	-17%	−$19.50	-100%	+$0.14	+0.14%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds	Result	✓
25 Oct	Kabwe Warriors vs Green Buffaloes	Kabwe Warriors	48.09%	2.08	1 – 2	✗
25 Oct	Konkola Blades vs Nkana	Nkana	45.48%	2.2	2 – 0	✗
25 Oct	Mufulira Wanderers vs Chirundu Utd	Chirundu Utd	54.62%	1.83	0 – 1	✓
24 Oct	Maestro United Zambia vs Power Dynamos	Maestro United Zambia	47.25%	2.12	1 – 0	✓
24 Oct	NAPSA Stars vs Nchanga Rangers	NAPSA Stars	95%	1.05	0 – 1	✗

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds
14 Oct	Roan United vs ZESCO United	Roan United	44.21%	2.26
14 Oct	Nchanga Rangers vs Trident	***	0%	0
14 Oct	NAPSA Stars vs Nkana	🔒 Login or register for free to see predictions data.
14 Oct	Mufulira Wanderers vs Nkwazi
14 Oct	Konkola Blades vs Maestro United Zambia

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

Team	PPG ↓	H-PPG	A-PPG	WPPG	vs Avg
1Green Eagles	2.5	3	2.33	2.37	+1.13
2Maestro United Zambia	2.5	3	1	2.61	+1.13
3Konkola Blades	2.25	3	1.5	2.2	+0.88
4Nkana	2.25	3	1.5	2.06	+0.88
5Red Arrows	2	1	3	1.92	+0.63
6Green Buffaloes	2	2	2	2.01	+0.63
7Zanaco	1.75	1.33	3	1.79	+0.38
8Chirundu Utd	1.75	3	1.33	1.97	+0.38
9Power Dynamos	1.5	3	0	1.48	+0.13
10Kabwe Warriors	1.33	1.33	0	1.27	-0.04
11Roan United	1.33	1	1.5	1.17	-0.04
12ZESCO United	1.25	1.33	1	1.4	-0.12
13Trident	1	1.33	0	1.17	-0.37
14Kansanshi Dynamos	1	3	0.33	0.99	-0.37
15NAPSA Stars	0.75	0.5	1	0.69	-0.62
16Nchanga Rangers	0.75	0	1	0.94	-0.62
17Nkwazi	0.75	0.67	1	0.81	-0.62
18Mufulira Wanderers	0.5	0	1	0.49	-0.87
19Makeni All Stars	0.25	1	0	0.19	-1.12
20Mutondo Stars	0	0	0	0	-1.37

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

Chirundu Utd

PPG: 1.75WPPG: 1.97Gap: ↑ 0.22

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Nkana

PPG: 2.25WPPG: 2.06Gap: ↓ 0.19

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Nchanga Rangers

PPG: 0.75WPPG: 0.94Gap: ↑ 0.19

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Trident

PPG: 1WPPG: 1.17Gap: ↑ 0.17

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Roan United

PPG: 1.33WPPG: 1.17Gap: ↓ 0.16

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Worked Example — Kabwe Warriors vs Green Buffaloes

P(Kabwe Warriors) = 2 / (2+1.67) × 1.08

= 0.545 × 1.08 = 48.09% → Fair odds 2.08

P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)

= 22.38% → Fair odds 4.47

P(Green Buffaloes) = 1 − 48.09% − 22.38%

= 29.53% → Fair odds 3.39

Poisson / Correct Score

0.36

Home xG (λ)

0.63

Away xG (λ)

0.99

Total E[goals]

1.39

League Avg Home

0.79

League Avg Away

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — NAPSA Stars vs Nkana

13 Oct · Each cell shows the probability of that exact scoreline. Dixon-Coles corrected (ρ = -0.13). · Upcoming

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	38.3%	22.3%	7.4%	1.6%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
1	12.3%	9.5%	2.6%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2	2.4%	1.5%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Most likely High Medium Low

Derived Markets

Home Win

16.79%

Fair odds: 5.96

Draw

48.27%

Fair odds: 2.07

Away Win

34.95%

Fair odds: 2.86

Over 0.561.75%/ Under 38.25%Fair: 1.62

Over 1.527.15%/ Under 72.85%Fair: 3.68

Over 2.57.85%/ Under 92.15%Fair: 12.74

Over 3.51.84%/ Under 98.16%Fair: 54.42

Over 4.50.35%/ Under 99.65%Fair: 285.37

BTTS Yes15.23%Fair: 6.57

BTTS No84.77%Fair: 1.18

Correct Score — Top 12

10-0

38.25%D

20-1

22.31%A

31-0

12.28%H

41-1

9.52%D

50-2

7.37%A

61-2

2.65%A

72-0

2.41%H

80-3

1.55%A

92-1

1.52%H

101-3

0.56%A

112-2

0.48%D

123-0

0.29%H

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Where the low-score correction adds value

Plain Poisson

P(0-0) = 37.2%

P(1-0) = 13.4%

P(0-1) = 23.4%

P(1-1) = 8.4%

✗ Underestimates 0-0, 1-0, 0-1

Dixon-Coles (ρ correction)

P(0-0) = 38.3% (+1.1%)

P(1-0) = 12.3% (-1.1%)

P(0-1) = 22.3% (-1.1%)

P(1-1) = 9.5% (+1.1%)

✓ Fixes low-score underestimation

💡 Why does this matter? Draws in football are dominated by 0-0 and 1-1. Plain Poisson underprices these by 15–20%. Dixon-Coles corrects this, generating better ROI on draw markets.

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Poisson/Dixon-Coles model — xG computed only from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	3	1	33.33%	−$10.50	-35%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	1	1	100%	+$9.50	+95%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	1	0	0%	−$10.00	-100%
DC Draw (>28%)	1	0	0%	−$10.00	-100%
DC Over 2.5 Value	2	1	50%	+$7.50	+37.5%
DC BTTS Value	1	0	0%	−$10.00	-100%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Dixon-Coles bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	3	−$10.50	-35%	$0.00	0%	−$2.97	-7.82%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	1	+$9.50	+95%	$0.00	0%	+$9.50	+95%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	1	−$10.00	-100%	$0.00	0%	−$10.00	-100%
DC Draw (>28%)	1	−$10.00	-100%	$0.00	0%	−$10.00	-100%
DC Over 2.5 Value	2	+$7.50	+37.5%	$0.00	0%	+$7.50	+37.5%
DC BTTS Value	1	−$10.00	-100%	$0.00	0%	−$10.00	-100%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

Team	Att (H)	Def (H)	Att (A)	Def (A)	H GP	A GP
Konkola Blades	1.44	0.63	2.53	1.44	2	2
Maestro United Zambia	1.44	0.42	1.27	0.72	3	1
Zanaco	1.44	1.69	1.27	0	3	1
Trident	1.44	0.84	1.27	1.44	3	1
Nkana	2.16	0.63	0.63	0.72	2	2
Kabwe Warriors	1.2	2.11	1	1	3	0
ZESCO United	1.2	0.42	1.27	0.72	3	1
Green Eagles	0.72	0	2.11	0.24	1	3
Red Arrows	0	0	3.8	0.72	1	1
Power Dynamos	1.08	0.63	0.63	1.08	2	2
Green Buffaloes	0.72	0	1.27	0.36	2	2
Chirundu Utd	2.16	0	0.42	0.48	1	3
Mutondo Stars	0.72	3.8	0.84	2.64	1	3
Kansanshi Dynamos	1.44	1.27	0.42	1.68	1	3
Roan United	0	0	1.27	0.72	1	2
NAPSA Stars	0.36	1.27	0.63	0.36	2	2
Makeni All Stars	0	0	0.84	2.64	1	3
Mufulira Wanderers	0.36	3.16	0	0	2	2
Nchanga Rangers	0	1.27	0.42	0.72	1	3
Nkwazi	0.24	0.84	0	0	3	1

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:: Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:: P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:: Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:: Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:: Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1Green Eagles

1549

2Maestro United Zambia

1540

3Konkola Blades

1531

4Green Buffaloes

1531

5Nkana

1527

6Chirundu Utd

1520

7Red Arrows

1514

8Zanaco

1510

9Roan United

1504

10Power Dynamos

1500

11ZESCO United

1494

12Kansanshi Dynamos

1491

13Kabwe Warriors

1491

14Nkwazi

1483

15NAPSA Stars

1481

16Trident

1480

17Nchanga Rangers

1479

18Mufulira Wanderers

1470

19Makeni All Stars

1460

20Mutondo Stars

1445

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo Diff	P(Higher wins)	Fair Odds	Typical Matchup
0	50.0%	2.00	Evenly matched
50	57.1%	1.75	Mid vs mid-lower
100	64.0%	1.56	Top-8 vs bottom-8
150	70.3%	1.42	Top-4 vs relegation
200	76.0%	1.32	Leader vs bottom half
250	80.8%	1.24	Leader vs bottom 3
300	84.9%	1.18	Green Eagles vs Mutondo Stars

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

Green EaglesMaestro United ZambiaKonkola BladesGreen BuffaloesNkanaChirundu Utd

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#	Team	Elo	Peak	Δ	GP	W	D	L
1	Green Eagles	1549	1549	+49	4	3	1	0
2	Maestro United Zambia	1540	1540	+40	4	3	1	0
3	Konkola Blades	1531	1532	+31	4	3	0	1
4	Green Buffaloes	1531	1531	+31	4	2	2	0
5	Nkana	1527	1541	+27	4	3	0	1
6	Chirundu Utd	1520	1520	+20	4	2	1	1
7	Red Arrows	1514	1519	+14	2	1	1	0
8	Zanaco	1510	1519	+10	4	2	1	1
9	Roan United	1504	1519	+4	3	1	1	1
10	Power Dynamos	1500	1512	-0	4	2	0	2
11	ZESCO United	1494	1503	-6	4	1	2	1
12	Kansanshi Dynamos	1491	1505	-9	4	1	1	2
13	Kabwe Warriors	1491	1509	-9	3	1	1	1
14	Nkwazi	1483	1500	-17	4	0	3	1
15	NAPSA Stars	1481	1502	-19	4	0	3	1
16	Trident	1480	1500	-20	4	1	1	2
17	Nchanga Rangers	1479	1500	-21	4	1	0	3
18	Mufulira Wanderers	1470	1500	-30	4	0	2	2
19	Makeni All Stars	1460	1500	-40	4	0	1	3
20	Mutondo Stars	1445	1500	-55	4	0	0	4

Elo Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	5	0	0%	−$50.00	-100%
Elo Favourite	8	4	50%	−$15.00	-18.75%
Elo Draw (>28%)	1	1	100%	+$17.50	+175%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	5	−$50.00	-100%	$0.00	0%	−$51.02	-100%
Elo Favourite	8	−$15.00	-18.75%	−$7.14	-100%	−$6.75	-8.14%
Elo Draw (>28%)	1	+$17.50	+175%	$0.00	0%	+$17.50	+175%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:: Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:: E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:: R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:: Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:: Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

No upcoming matches with odds available. Please check back later.

Premier League Zambia Prediction Models

Flat Betting Model

Odds Range Filter

Market ROI Summary

Staking Plan Comparison

By Team Bets

PPG Model

Odds Range Filter

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

PPG Ratings — All Teams

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Worked Example — Kabwe Warriors vs Green Buffaloes

Poisson / Correct Score

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — NAPSA Stars vs Nkana

Derived Markets

Correct Score — Top 12

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Team Attack & Defense Strength

How Poisson Predictions Work

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

Elo → Win Probability Table

Elo Rating History — Top 6

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Elo Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

How Elo Ratings Work

Value Scanner