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Premier League Russia Prediction Models

2026/2027

Flat Betting Model

Matches w/ Odds

$10

Stake Per Bet

+28.84%

Best: Draw Bet

-41.03%

Worst: Away Underdog

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for Premier League Russia. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

Market	Bets	Wins	Win %	Staked	Return	P&L	ROI	Best Str.	Worst Str.
Home Bet	88	33	37.5%	$880	$714.4	−$165.60	-18.82%	3	6
Draw Bet	88	29	32.95%	$880	$1133.8	+$253.80	+28.84%	4	6
Away Bet	88	26	29.55%	$880	$931.8	+$51.80	+5.89%	2	11
Over 2.5	88	46	52.27%	$880	$827.4	−$52.60	-5.98%	5	6
Under 2.5	88	42	47.73%	$880	$1000.9	+$120.90	+13.74%	6	5
BTTS Yes	88	50	56.82%	$880	$920.4	+$40.40	+4.59%	6	3
Home Favorite	53	26	49.06%	$530	$469.8	−$60.20	-11.36%	3	5
Away Underdog	37	5	13.51%	$370	$218.2	−$151.80	-41.03%	2	15
Favorite	88	43	48.86%	$880	$844.8	−$35.20	-4%	5	7
Underdog	88	16	18.18%	$880	$801.4	−$78.60	-8.93%	4	15

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

Market	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Home Bet	88	−$165.60	-18.82%	−$42.36	-68.79%	−$134.40	-14.58%
Draw Bet	88	+$253.80	+28.84%	+$17.79	+8.54%	+$245.89	+27.74%
Away Bet	88	+$51.80	+5.89%	−$3.79	-1.19%	−$64.37	-7.61%
Over 2.5	88	−$52.60	-5.98%	−$39.32	-18.27%	−$51.27	-5.53%
Under 2.5	88	+$120.90	+13.74%	−$4.33	-5.65%	+$128.78	+14.36%
BTTS Yes	88	+$40.40	+4.59%	−$32.44	-8.99%	+$35.69	+4.01%
Home Favorite	53	−$60.20	-11.36%	−$7.69	-25.83%	−$44.32	-8.7%
Away Underdog	37	−$151.80	-41.03%	$0.00	0%	−$141.28	-35.53%
Favorite	88	−$35.20	-4%	+$4.20	+2.93%	−$39.64	-4.49%
Underdog	88	−$78.60	-8.93%	+$15.70	+32.78%	−$196.83	-22.13%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

Team	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Rodina Moskva	11	2	18.18%	+$170.40	+154.91%
Dinamo Moskva	11	8	72.73%	+$58.90	+53.55%
CSKA Moskva	11	6	54.55%	+$52.60	+47.82%
Zenit	11	8	72.73%	+$23.70	+21.55%
Spartak Moskva	11	6	54.55%	+$5.90	+5.36%
Krasnodar	11	5	45.45%	−$7.60	-6.91%
Rostov	11	4	36.36%	−$22.60	-20.55%
Akron	11	2	18.18%	−$22.60	-20.55%
Dinamo Makhachkala	11	3	27.27%	−$23.60	-21.45%
Krylya Sovetov	11	3	27.27%	−$32.20	-29.27%
Baltika	11	3	27.27%	−$34.00	-30.91%
Lokomotiv Moskva	11	2	18.18%	−$44.30	-40.27%
Orenburg	11	2	18.18%	−$47.20	-42.91%
Rubin Kazan	11	2	18.18%	−$60.20	-54.73%
Akhmat Grozny	11	2	18.18%	−$62.60	-56.91%
Fakel	11	1	9.09%	−$68.40	-62.18%

PPG Model

Teams

1.34

League Avg PPG

1.08

Home Factor

λ=0.85

WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for Premier League Russia. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	72	32	44.44%	−$74.50	-10.35%
PPG Home Pick	37	19	51.35%	−$34.20	-9.24%
PPG Away Pick	35	13	37.14%	−$40.30	-11.51%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	82	35	42.68%	−$59.10	-7.21%
PPG Value (fair < market)	86	28	32.56%	−$182.10	-21.17%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:: Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:: Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:: Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:: Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:: Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	72	−$74.50	-10.35%	−$34.95	-36.67%	−$64.18	-8.77%
PPG Home Pick	37	−$34.20	-9.24%	−$17.68	-78.82%	−$26.50	-6.9%
PPG Away Pick	35	−$40.30	-11.51%	−$20.54	-47.44%	−$37.78	-10.4%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	82	−$59.10	-7.21%	−$24.47	-21.56%	−$65.08	-7.93%
PPG Value (fair < market)	86	−$182.10	-21.17%	−$33.99	-56.57%	−$159.12	-19.02%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds	Result	✓
25 Oct	Zenit vs Dinamo Makhachkala	Zenit	61.19%	1.63	2 – 0	✓
25 Oct	CSKA Moskva vs Spartak Moskva	CSKA Moskva	42.03%	2.38	2 – 0	✓
25 Oct	Rostov vs Lokomotiv Moskva	Rostov	45.21%	2.21	2 – 0	✓
24 Oct	Krasnodar vs Baltika	Krasnodar	58.65%	1.71	1 – 1	✗
24 Oct	Rubin Kazan vs Krylya Sovetov	Rubin Kazan	42.59%	2.35	0 – 2	✗

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds
31 Oct	Rubin Kazan vs Fakel	Rubin Kazan	59.58%	1.68
31 Oct	Dinamo Moskva vs Akhmat Grozny	***	0%	0
31 Oct	Rodina Moskva vs Krasnodar	🔒 Login or register for free to see predictions data.
01 Nov	Orenburg vs CSKA Moskva
01 Nov	Dinamo Makhachkala vs Rostov

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

Team	PPG ↓	H-PPG	A-PPG	WPPG	vs Avg
1Zenit	2.25	2	2.5	2.48	+0.91
2CSKA Moskva	2.08	2.25	1.75	2.09	+0.74
3Dinamo Moskva	2.08	2.67	1.5	2.17	+0.74
4Spartak Moskva	1.92	2.29	1.4	1.74	+0.58
5Krasnodar	1.92	1.83	2	1.42	+0.58
6Orenburg	1.33	1.5	1.17	1.54	-0.01
7Krylya Sovetov	1.25	0.83	1.67	1.41	-0.09
8Rostov	1.25	2	0.71	1.48	-0.09
9Baltika	1.17	0.83	1.5	1.02	-0.17
10Dinamo Makhachkala	1.08	1.4	0.86	0.72	-0.26
11Akron	1	1.17	0.83	1.32	-0.34
12Rubin Kazan	1	0.83	1.17	0.72	-0.34
13Lokomotiv Moskva	0.92	0.8	1	0.99	-0.42
14Akhmat Grozny	0.92	1.33	0.5	0.78	-0.42
15Rodina Moskva	0.75	0.6	0.86	0.95	-0.59
16Fakel	0.5	0.43	0.6	0.63	-0.84

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

Krasnodar

PPG: 1.92WPPG: 1.42Gap: ↓ 0.50

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Dinamo Makhachkala

PPG: 1.08WPPG: 0.72Gap: ↓ 0.36

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Akron

PPG: 1WPPG: 1.32Gap: ↑ 0.32

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Rubin Kazan

PPG: 1WPPG: 0.72Gap: ↓ 0.28

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Zenit

PPG: 2.25WPPG: 2.48Gap: ↑ 0.23

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Worked Example — Zenit vs Dinamo Makhachkala

P(Zenit) = 2.18 / (2.18+1.18) × 1.08

= 0.649 × 1.08 = 61.19% → Fair odds 1.63

P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)

= 14.51% → Fair odds 6.89

P(Dinamo Makhachkala) = 1 − 61.19% − 14.51%

= 24.3% → Fair odds 4.12

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

1.26

Home xG (λ)

1.15

Away xG (λ)

2.41

Total E[goals]

1.43

League Avg Home

1.3

League Avg Away

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Rubin Kazan vs Fakel

30 Oct · Each cell shows the probability of that exact scoreline. Dixon-Coles corrected (ρ = -0.13). · Upcoming

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	10.7%	8.6%	5.9%	2.3%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%
1	9.6%	14.7%	7.5%	2.9%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%
2	7.1%	8.2%	4.7%	1.8%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
3	3.0%	3.5%	2.0%	0.8%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%
4	0.9%	1.1%	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
5	0.2%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Most likely High Medium Low

Derived Markets

Home Win

37.19%

Fair odds: 2.69

Draw

30.94%

Fair odds: 3.23

Away Win

31.87%

Fair odds: 3.14

Over 0.589.32%/ Under 10.68%Fair: 1.12

Over 1.571.05%/ Under 28.95%Fair: 1.41

Over 2.543.26%/ Under 56.74%Fair: 2.31

Over 3.522.3%/ Under 77.7%Fair: 4.49

Over 4.59.66%/ Under 90.34%Fair: 10.35

BTTS Yes50.63%Fair: 1.97

BTTS No49.37%Fair: 2.03

Correct Score — Top 12

11-1

14.71%D

20-0

10.68%D

31-0

9.63%H

40-1

8.64%A

52-1

8.2%H

61-2

7.49%A

72-0

7.13%H

80-2

5.94%A

92-2

4.72%D

103-1

3.45%H

113-0

3%H

121-3

2.87%A

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Where the low-score correction adds value

Plain Poisson

P(0-0) = 9.0%

P(1-0) = 11.3%

P(0-1) = 10.3%

P(1-1) = 13.0%

✗ Underestimates 0-0, 1-0, 0-1

Dixon-Coles (ρ correction)

P(0-0) = 10.7% (+1.7%)

P(1-0) = 9.6% (-1.7%)

P(0-1) = 8.6% (-1.7%)

P(1-1) = 14.7% (+1.7%)

✓ Fixes low-score underestimation

💡 Why does this matter? Draws in football are dominated by 0-0 and 1-1. Plain Poisson underprices these by 15–20%. Dixon-Coles corrects this, generating better ROI on draw markets.

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Poisson/Dixon-Coles model — xG computed only from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	56	24	42.86%	+$149.40	+26.68%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	18	12	66.67%	+$16.30	+9.06%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	17	5	29.41%	−$57.20	-33.65%
DC Draw (>28%)	27	11	40.74%	+$142.50	+52.78%
DC Over 2.5 Value	17	5	29.41%	−$78.00	-45.88%
DC BTTS Value	16	6	37.5%	−$46.10	-28.81%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Dixon-Coles bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	56	+$149.40	+26.68%	+$65.43	+24.63%	+$136.97	+24.22%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	18	+$16.30	+9.06%	−$13.25	-35.25%	+$55.60	+23.87%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	17	−$57.20	-33.65%	−$17.34	-100%	−$53.93	-30.39%
DC Draw (>28%)	27	+$142.50	+52.78%	+$37.76	+22.55%	+$142.59	+52.69%
DC Over 2.5 Value	17	−$78.00	-45.88%	$0.00	0%	−$76.76	-43.75%
DC BTTS Value	16	−$46.10	-28.81%	−$0.17	-100%	−$47.33	-29.24%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

Team	Att (H)	Def (H)	Att (A)	Def (A)	H GP	A GP
Zenit	1.4	0.9	1.92	0.7	6	6
CSKA Moskva	1.14	0.48	1.54	1.22	8	4
Spartak Moskva	1.5	0.33	0.92	0.98	7	5
Krasnodar	1.05	0.9	1.41	0.82	6	6
Dinamo Moskva	1.4	0.51	0.9	0.93	6	6
Krylya Sovetov	0.82	1.54	1.28	0.58	6	6
Dinamo Makhachkala	0.84	0.92	1.1	1.7	5	7
Lokomotiv Moskva	0.7	0.92	1.21	1	5	7
Baltika	0.7	1.03	1.15	0.58	6	6
Akron	0.93	1.67	0.9	0.93	6	6
Akhmat Grozny	1.28	1.15	0.51	0.93	6	6
Orenburg	1.05	0.9	0.64	0.58	6	6
Rodina Moskva	1.12	2	0.55	1.4	5	7
Rostov	0.98	0.77	0.66	1.2	5	7
Rubin Kazan	0.7	1.15	0.77	1.05	6	6
Fakel	0.3	1.21	0.77	1.26	7	5

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:: Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:: P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:: Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:: Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:: Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1Zenit

1580

2Dinamo Moskva

1570

3CSKA Moskva

1569

4Krasnodar

1549

5Spartak Moskva

1545

6Orenburg

1516

7Krylya Sovetov

1500

8Rostov

1495

9Akron

1488

10Baltika

1483

11Rubin Kazan

1469

12Lokomotiv Moskva

1468

13Akhmat Grozny

1459

14Dinamo Makhachkala

1457

15Rodina Moskva

1445

16Fakel

1406

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo Diff	P(Higher wins)	Fair Odds	Typical Matchup
0	50.0%	2.00	Evenly matched
50	57.1%	1.75	Mid vs mid-lower
100	64.0%	1.56	Top-8 vs bottom-8
150	70.3%	1.42	Top-4 vs relegation
200	76.0%	1.32	Leader vs bottom half
250	80.8%	1.24	Leader vs bottom 3
300	84.9%	1.18	Zenit vs Fakel

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

ZenitDinamo MoskvaCSKA MoskvaKrasnodarSpartak MoskvaOrenburg

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#	Team	Elo	Peak	Δ	GP	W	D	L
1	Zenit	1580	1580	+80	12	9	0	3
2	Dinamo Moskva	1570	1589	+70	12	8	1	3
3	CSKA Moskva	1569	1569	+69	12	7	4	1
4	Krasnodar	1549	1587	+49	12	6	5	1
5	Spartak Moskva	1545	1558	+45	12	7	2	3
6	Orenburg	1516	1516	+16	12	3	7	2
7	Krylya Sovetov	1500	1506	+0	12	3	6	3
8	Rostov	1495	1509	-5	12	4	3	5
9	Akron	1488	1500	-12	12	2	6	4
10	Baltika	1483	1520	-17	12	3	5	4
11	Rubin Kazan	1469	1517	-31	12	2	6	4
12	Lokomotiv Moskva	1468	1500	-32	12	2	5	5
13	Akhmat Grozny	1459	1506	-41	12	2	5	5
14	Dinamo Makhachkala	1457	1534	-43	12	4	1	7
15	Rodina Moskva	1445	1500	-55	12	2	3	7
16	Fakel	1406	1500	-94	12	1	3	8

Elo Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	69	12	17%	−$196.10	-28.42%
Elo Favourite	80	29	36%	−$220.30	-27.54%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	8	5	63%	−$7.30	-9.13%
Elo Draw (>28%)	26	10	38%	+$119.30	+45.88%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	69	−$196.10	-28.42%	−$4.50	-100%	−$204.48	-28.96%
Elo Favourite	80	−$220.30	-27.54%	−$25.08	-77.15%	−$186.28	-22.58%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	8	−$7.30	-9.13%	−$6.86	-100%	−$4.72	-5.79%
Elo Draw (>28%)	26	+$119.30	+45.88%	+$16.29	+33.58%	+$100.73	+38.97%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:: Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:: E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:: R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:: Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:: Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

No upcoming matches with odds available. Please check back later.

Premier League Russia Prediction Models

Flat Betting Model

Odds Range Filter

Market ROI Summary

Staking Plan Comparison

By Team Bets

PPG Model

Odds Range Filter

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

PPG Ratings — All Teams

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Worked Example — Zenit vs Dinamo Makhachkala

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Rubin Kazan vs Fakel

Derived Markets

Correct Score — Top 12

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Team Attack & Defense Strength

How Poisson Predictions Work

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

Elo → Win Probability Table

Elo Rating History — Top 6

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Elo Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

How Elo Ratings Work

Value Scanner