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Premier League Kazakhstan Prediction Models

2026

Flat Betting Model

Matches w/ Odds

$10

Stake Per Bet

+22.17%

Best: Home Favorite

-42.96%

Worst: Away Underdog

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for Premier League Kazakhstan. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

Market	Bets	Wins	Win %	Staked	Return	P&L	ROI	Best Str.	Worst Str.
Home Bet	71	35	49.3%	$710	$819.5	+$109.50	+15.42%	5	5
Draw Bet	71	13	18.31%	$710	$507	−$203.00	-28.59%	2	28
Away Bet	71	23	32.39%	$710	$587.3	−$122.70	-17.28%	3	8
Over 2.5	71	42	59.15%	$710	$780.2	+$70.20	+9.89%	9	4
Under 2.5	71	29	40.85%	$710	$668.4	−$41.60	-5.86%	4	9
BTTS Yes	71	40	56.34%	$710	$730.2	+$20.20	+2.85%	8	5
Home Favorite	42	26	61.9%	$420	$513.1	+$93.10	+22.17%	9	5
Away Underdog	28	4	14.29%	$280	$159.7	−$120.30	-42.96%	1	14
Favorite	71	41	57.75%	$710	$819.3	+$109.30	+15.39%	7	6
Underdog	71	18	25.35%	$710	$615.1	−$94.90	-13.37%	4	17

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

Market	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Home Bet	71	+$109.50	+15.42%	−$9.04	-3.01%	+$129.12	+16.79%
Draw Bet	71	−$203.00	-28.59%	−$20.10	-92.71%	−$227.53	-32.61%
Away Bet	71	−$122.70	-17.28%	−$38.95	-75.97%	−$24.82	-3.42%
Over 2.5	71	+$70.20	+9.89%	+$19.40	+6.89%	+$70.77	+9.33%
Under 2.5	71	−$41.60	-5.86%	−$15.67	-38.94%	−$49.35	-6.91%
BTTS Yes	71	+$20.20	+2.85%	−$7.73	-4.6%	+$19.58	+2.67%
Home Favorite	42	+$93.10	+22.17%	+$207.77	+11.85%	+$80.31	+17.77%
Away Underdog	28	−$120.30	-42.96%	−$0.66	-100%	−$95.24	-33.24%
Favorite	71	+$109.30	+15.39%	+$69.80	+6.35%	+$100.88	+13.38%
Underdog	71	−$94.90	-13.37%	−$25.84	-100%	+$11.54	+1.58%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

Team	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Okzhetpes	9	6	66.67%	+$71.40	+79.33%
Tobol Kostanay	10	6	60%	+$70.40	+70.4%
Ordabasy	9	7	77.78%	+$35.40	+39.33%
Ertis	10	4	40%	+$23.60	+23.6%
Astana	11	6	54.55%	+$8.50	+7.73%
Yelimay Semey	10	5	50%	+$5.50	+5.5%
Kyzyl-Zhar	9	3	33.33%	+$3.50	+3.89%
Altay VKO	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
Aktobe	10	4	40%	−$2.00	-2%
Kairat	9	6	66.67%	−$2.40	-2.67%
Kaspiy	9	2	22.22%	−$20.00	-22.22%
Atyrau	10	2	20%	−$25.80	-25.8%
Ulytau Zhezkazgan	9	2	22.22%	−$38.20	-42.44%
Zhetysu	10	2	20%	−$45.80	-45.8%
Zhenys Astana	9	2	22.22%	−$42.10	-46.78%
Kaisar Kyzylorda	8	1	12.5%	−$55.20	-69%

PPG Model

Teams

1.36

League Avg PPG

1.08

Home Factor

λ=0.85

WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for Premier League Kazakhstan. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	70	39	55.71%	+$86.90	+12.41%
PPG Home Pick	34	22	64.71%	+$78.10	+22.97%
PPG Away Pick	36	17	47.22%	+$8.80	+2.44%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	71	36	50.7%	+$0.50	+0.07%
PPG Value (fair < market)	71	30	42.25%	+$25.40	+3.58%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:: Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:: Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:: Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:: Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:: Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	70	+$86.90	+12.41%	+$53.55	+7.78%	+$72.43	+9.74%
PPG Home Pick	34	+$78.10	+22.97%	+$227.75	+15.44%	+$56.51	+16.13%
PPG Away Pick	36	+$8.80	+2.44%	−$15.34	-28.1%	+$10.95	+2.82%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	71	+$0.50	+0.07%	−$30.16	-9.62%	+$12.30	+1.65%
PPG Value (fair < market)	71	+$25.40	+3.58%	−$49.89	-21%	+$84.07	+11.49%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds	Result	✓
25 Oct	Astana vs Kaisar Kyzylorda	Astana	65.71%	1.52	0 – 0	✗
25 Oct	Aktobe vs Kairat	Kairat	43.02%	2.32	2 – 2	✗
25 Oct	Atyrau vs Ertis	Atyrau	43.54%	2.3	2 – 3	✗
25 Oct	Altay VKO vs Yelimay Semey	Yelimay Semey	51.99%	1.92	2 – 2	✗
24 Oct	Ordabasy vs Zhenys Astana	Ordabasy	64.83%	1.54	1 – 1	✗

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds
31 Oct	Zhenys Astana vs Kaisar Kyzylorda	Zhenys Astana	49.81%	2.01
31 Oct	Yelimay Semey vs Okzhetpes	***	0%	0
31 Oct	Ulytau Zhezkazgan vs Atyrau	🔒 Login or register for free to see predictions data.
31 Oct	Tobol Kostanay vs Aktobe
31 Oct	Kaspiy vs Kyzyl-Zhar

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

Team	PPG ↓	H-PPG	A-PPG	WPPG	vs Avg
1Ordabasy	2.34	2.6	2.07	2.28	+0.98
2Kairat	2.21	2.36	2.07	1.98	+0.85
3Astana	1.83	2.6	1	1.8	+0.47
4Okzhetpes	1.76	2.27	1.21	1.87	+0.40
5Aktobe	1.59	2.07	1.07	1.71	+0.23
6Yelimay Semey	1.55	1.5	1.6	1.6	+0.19
7Tobol Kostanay	1.41	2.29	0.6	1.8	+0.05
8Ulytau Zhezkazgan	1.21	1.86	0.6	0.96	-0.15
9Kaspiy	1.14	1.5	0.8	1.39	-0.22
10Zhenys Astana	1.14	1.64	0.67	1.01	-0.22
11Kyzyl-Zhar	1.07	1.27	0.86	1.33	-0.29
12Ertis	1	1.07	0.93	1.38	-0.36
13Atyrau	0.93	0.73	1.14	0.76	-0.43
14Zhetysu	0.9	1.14	0.67	0.71	-0.46
15Altay VKO	0.86	0.93	0.79	0.95	-0.50
16Kaisar Kyzylorda	0.86	0.93	0.79	0.79	-0.50

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

Tobol Kostanay

PPG: 1.41WPPG: 1.8Gap: ↑ 0.39

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Ertis

PPG: 1WPPG: 1.38Gap: ↑ 0.38

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Kyzyl-Zhar

PPG: 1.07WPPG: 1.33Gap: ↑ 0.26

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Ulytau Zhezkazgan

PPG: 1.21WPPG: 0.96Gap: ↓ 0.25

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Kaspiy

PPG: 1.14WPPG: 1.39Gap: ↑ 0.25

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Worked Example — Astana vs Kaisar Kyzylorda

P(Astana) = 1.86 / (1.86+0.86) × 1.08

= 0.684 × 1.08 = 65.71% → Fair odds 1.52

P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)

= 12.39% → Fair odds 8.07

P(Kaisar Kyzylorda) = 1 − 65.71% − 12.39%

= 21.9% → Fair odds 4.57

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

1.2

Home xG (λ)

0.56

Away xG (λ)

1.76

Total E[goals]

1.45

League Avg Home

1.09

League Avg Away

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Zhenys Astana vs Kaisar Kyzylorda

30 Oct · Each cell shows the probability of that exact scoreline. Dixon-Coles corrected (ρ = -0.13). · Upcoming

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	18.7%	8.1%	2.7%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
1	19.1%	13.1%	3.2%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2	12.4%	6.9%	1.9%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
3	5.0%	2.8%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	1.5%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Most likely High Medium Low

Derived Markets

Home Win

50.33%

Fair odds: 1.99

Draw

33.87%

Fair odds: 2.95

Away Win

15.8%

Fair odds: 6.33

Over 0.581.29%/ Under 18.71%Fair: 1.23

Over 1.554.01%/ Under 45.99%Fair: 1.85

Over 2.525.85%/ Under 74.15%Fair: 3.87

Over 3.510.21%/ Under 89.79%Fair: 9.79

Over 4.53.33%/ Under 96.67%Fair: 29.99

BTTS Yes31.46%Fair: 3.18

BTTS No68.54%Fair: 1.46

Correct Score — Top 12

11-0

19.15%H

20-0

18.71%D

31-1

13.07%D

42-0

12.39%H

50-1

8.13%A

62-1

6.94%H

73-0

4.96%H

81-2

3.24%A

93-1

2.78%H

100-2

2.7%A

112-2

1.94%D

124-0

1.49%H

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Where the low-score correction adds value

Plain Poisson

P(0-0) = 17.2%

P(1-0) = 20.6%

P(0-1) = 9.6%

P(1-1) = 11.6%

✗ Underestimates 0-0, 1-0, 0-1

Dixon-Coles (ρ correction)

P(0-0) = 18.7% (+1.5%)

P(1-0) = 19.1% (-1.5%)

P(0-1) = 8.1% (-1.5%)

P(1-1) = 13.1% (+1.5%)

✓ Fixes low-score underestimation

💡 Why does this matter? Draws in football are dominated by 0-0 and 1-1. Plain Poisson underprices these by 15–20%. Dixon-Coles corrects this, generating better ROI on draw markets.

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Poisson/Dixon-Coles model — xG computed only from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	60	24	40%	−$68.60	-11.43%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	26	19	73.08%	+$121.80	+46.85%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	10	6	60%	+$1.40	+1.4%
DC Draw (>28%)	33	6	18.18%	−$122.20	-37.03%
DC Over 2.5 Value	13	8	61.54%	+$21.10	+16.23%
DC BTTS Value	7	5	71.43%	+$22.90	+32.71%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Dixon-Coles bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	60	−$68.60	-11.43%	−$62.10	-66.82%	−$6.90	-1.12%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	26	+$121.80	+46.85%	+$433.76	+48%	+$92.48	+31.66%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	10	+$1.40	+1.4%	−$1.39	-18.78%	+$11.54	+10.55%
DC Draw (>28%)	33	−$122.20	-37.03%	−$24.29	-53.73%	−$120.57	-36.77%
DC Over 2.5 Value	13	+$21.10	+16.23%	+$4.41	+8.83%	+$20.98	+14.94%
DC BTTS Value	7	+$22.90	+32.71%	−$37.56	-100%	+$22.89	+31.68%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

Team	Att (H)	Def (H)	Att (A)	Def (A)	H GP	A GP
Kairat	1.63	0.59	1.59	0.6	14	15
Ordabasy	1.33	0.55	1.97	0.59	15	14
Astana	1.52	0.61	0.85	0.94	15	14
Okzhetpes	1.24	0.8	1.18	1.18	15	14
Aktobe	1.15	0.92	1.25	1.08	15	14
Yelimay Semey	0.94	1.25	1.41	0.97	14	15
Tobol Kostanay	1.33	1.11	0.8	1.01	14	15
Kyzyl-Zhar	1.01	1.22	0.59	0.99	15	14
Kaspiy	0.99	1.38	0.67	0.97	14	15
Zhenys Astana	0.84	0.79	0.8	1.24	14	15
Altay VKO	0.74	1.16	0.85	1.18	15	14
Ertis	0.69	1.25	0.92	1.15	14	15
Zhetysu	0.59	1.05	1.04	1.43	14	15
Ulytau Zhezkazgan	0.79	0.79	0.67	1.06	14	15
Atyrau	0.6	1.35	0.72	0.64	15	14
Kaisar Kyzylorda	0.64	1.16	0.66	0.99	15	14

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:: Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:: P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:: Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:: Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:: Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1Ordabasy

1663

2Kairat

1648

3Astana

1586

4Okzhetpes

1556

5Aktobe

1548

6Yelimay Semey

1535

7Tobol Kostanay

1530

8Kaspiy

1482

9Ulytau Zhezkazgan

1457

10Zhenys Astana

1457

11Ertis

1447

12Kyzyl-Zhar

1445

13Kaisar Kyzylorda

1420

14Altay VKO

1414

15Atyrau

1409

16Zhetysu

1401

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo Diff	P(Higher wins)	Fair Odds	Typical Matchup
0	50.0%	2.00	Evenly matched
50	57.1%	1.75	Mid vs mid-lower
100	64.0%	1.56	Top-8 vs bottom-8
150	70.3%	1.42	Top-4 vs relegation
200	76.0%	1.32	Leader vs bottom half
250	80.8%	1.24	Leader vs bottom 3
300	84.9%	1.18	Ordabasy vs Zhetysu

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

OrdabasyKairatAstanaOkzhetpesAktobeYelimay Semey

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#	Team	Elo	Peak	Δ	GP	W	D	L
1	Ordabasy	1663	1674	+163	29	21	5	3
2	Kairat	1648	1688	+148	29	19	7	3
3	Astana	1586	1601	+86	29	15	8	6
4	Okzhetpes	1556	1574	+56	29	15	6	8
5	Aktobe	1548	1548	+48	29	13	7	9
6	Yelimay Semey	1535	1547	+35	29	12	9	8
7	Tobol Kostanay	1530	1536	+30	29	12	5	12
8	Kaspiy	1482	1500	-18	29	9	6	14
9	Ulytau Zhezkazgan	1457	1538	-43	29	9	8	12
10	Zhenys Astana	1457	1521	-43	29	8	9	12
11	Ertis	1447	1515	-53	29	7	8	14
12	Kyzyl-Zhar	1445	1530	-55	29	8	7	14
13	Kaisar Kyzylorda	1420	1500	-80	29	4	13	12
14	Altay VKO	1414	1500	-86	29	5	10	14
15	Atyrau	1409	1524	-91	29	5	12	12
16	Zhetysu	1401	1523	-99	29	6	8	15

Elo Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	45	14	31%	−$60.20	-13.38%
Elo Favourite	71	38	54%	+$55.60	+7.83%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	14	9	64%	+$5.20	+3.71%
Elo Away Pick (>50%)	4	4	100%	+$22.50	+56.25%
Elo Draw (>28%)	25	4	16%	−$114.70	-45.88%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	45	−$60.20	-13.38%	−$64.13	-71.49%	+$55.44	+12.46%
Elo Favourite	71	+$55.60	+7.83%	−$0.22	-0.06%	+$69.58	+9.02%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	14	+$5.20	+3.71%	−$24.76	-29.26%	−$1.73	-1.2%
Elo Away Pick (>50%)	4	+$22.50	+56.25%	$0.00	0%	+$23.92	+55.56%
Elo Draw (>28%)	25	−$114.70	-45.88%	−$7.88	-100%	−$109.02	-44.22%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:: Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:: E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:: R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:: Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:: Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

No upcoming matches with odds available. Please check back later.

Premier League Kazakhstan Prediction Models

Flat Betting Model

Odds Range Filter

Market ROI Summary

Staking Plan Comparison

By Team Bets

PPG Model

Odds Range Filter

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

PPG Ratings — All Teams

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Worked Example — Astana vs Kaisar Kyzylorda

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Zhenys Astana vs Kaisar Kyzylorda

Derived Markets

Correct Score — Top 12

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Team Attack & Defense Strength

How Poisson Predictions Work

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

Elo → Win Probability Table

Elo Rating History — Top 6

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Elo Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

How Elo Ratings Work

Value Scanner