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Premier League Ghana Prediction Models

2026/2027

Flat Betting Model

Matches w/ Odds

$10

Stake Per Bet

+9.53%

Best: Under 2.5

-56.47%

Worst: Away Bet

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for Premier League Ghana. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

Market	Bets	Wins	Win %	Staked	Return	P&L	ROI	Best Str.	Worst Str.
Home Bet	17	11	64.71%	$170	$181.7	+$11.70	+6.88%	6	1
Draw Bet	17	4	23.53%	$170	$139.7	−$30.30	-17.82%	1	6
Away Bet	17	2	11.76%	$170	$74	−$96.00	-56.47%	1	14
Over 2.5	17	7	41.18%	$170	$160.7	−$9.30	-5.47%	3	4
Under 2.5	17	10	58.82%	$170	$186.2	+$16.20	+9.53%	4	3
BTTS Yes	17	7	41.18%	$170	$160.7	−$9.30	-5.47%	3	4
Home Favorite	17	11	64.71%	$170	$181.7	+$11.70	+6.88%	6	1
Away Underdog	13	2	15.38%	$130	$74	−$56.00	-43.08%	1	10
Favorite	17	11	64.71%	$170	$181.7	+$11.70	+6.88%	6	1
Underdog	17	2	11.76%	$170	$74	−$96.00	-56.47%	1	14

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

Market	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Home Bet	17	+$11.70	+6.88%	−$6.12	-100%	+$13.20	+7.11%
Draw Bet	17	−$30.30	-17.82%	−$3.15	-100%	−$30.59	-19.01%
Away Bet	17	−$96.00	-56.47%	−$17.31	-100%	−$69.22	-45.89%
Over 2.5	17	−$9.30	-5.47%	−$18.30	-31.67%	−$7.08	-4.02%
Under 2.5	17	+$16.20	+9.53%	+$3.27	+110.1%	+$19.62	+10.3%
BTTS Yes	17	−$9.30	-5.47%	−$0.66	-1.22%	−$14.27	-8.77%
Home Favorite	17	+$11.70	+6.88%	−$6.12	-100%	+$13.20	+7.11%
Away Underdog	13	−$56.00	-43.08%	−$14.10	-100%	−$36.44	-30.86%
Favorite	17	+$11.70	+6.88%	−$6.12	-100%	+$13.20	+7.11%
Underdog	17	−$96.00	-56.47%	−$17.31	-100%	−$69.22	-45.89%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

Team	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Samartex	1	1	100%	+$29.00	+290%
Swedru All Blacks FC	1	1	100%	+$12.50	+125%
Hearts of Oak	4	2	50%	+$10.00	+25%
Asante Kotoko	4	3	75%	+$8.30	+20.75%
Ashanti Gold	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
Berekum Chelsea	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
Debibi United	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
Young Apostles	2	1	50%	$0.00	0%
Vision	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
Port City	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
Karela United	4	2	50%	−$7.00	-17.5%
Medeama	2	1	50%	−$6.70	-33.5%
Aduana Stars	3	1	33.33%	−$12.20	-40.67%
Bibiani Gold Stars	2	1	50%	−$8.20	-41%
Heart of Lions	2	0	0%	−$20.00	-100%
Bechem United	3	0	0%	−$30.00	-100%
Dreams	3	0	0%	−$30.00	-100%
Basake Holy Stars	3	0	0%	−$30.00	-100%

PPG Model

Teams

1.34

League Avg PPG

1.08

Home Factor

λ=0.85

WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for Premier League Ghana. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	11	3	27.27%	−$66.90	-60.82%
PPG Home Pick	5	3	60%	−$6.90	-13.8%
PPG Away Pick	6	0	0%	−$60.00	-100%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	11	3	27.27%	−$66.90	-60.82%
PPG Value (fair < market)	12	0	0%	−$120.00	-100%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:: Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:: Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:: Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:: Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:: Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	11	−$66.90	-60.82%	−$9.65	-100%	−$31.47	-28.92%
PPG Home Pick	5	−$6.90	-13.8%	$0.00	0%	−$6.15	-12.93%
PPG Away Pick	6	−$60.00	-100%	$0.00	0%	−$55.73	-100%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	11	−$66.90	-60.82%	−$9.65	-100%	−$31.47	-28.92%
PPG Value (fair < market)	12	−$120.00	-100%	$0.00	0%	−$88.81	-100%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds	Result	✓
23 Oct	Hearts of Oak vs Basake Holy Stars	Hearts of Oak	56.38%	1.77	1 – 0	✓
18 Oct	Aduana Stars vs Ashanti Gold	Aduana Stars	60.43%	1.65	1 – 0	✓
18 Oct	Port City vs Dreams	Port City	74.36%	1.34	1 – 1	✗
18 Oct	Basake Holy Stars vs Bechem United	Basake Holy Stars	83.6%	1.2	0 – 0	✗
18 Oct	Asante Kotoko vs Young Apostles	Young Apostles	54.85%	1.82	2 – 1	✗

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds
20 Sept	Debibi United vs Young Apostles	Young Apostles	43.26%	2.31
25 Oct	Medeama vs Aduana Stars	***	0%	0
25 Oct	Karela United vs Port City	🔒 Login or register for free to see predictions data.
25 Oct	Dreams vs Vision
25 Oct	Bibiani Gold Stars vs Heart of Lions

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

Team	PPG ↓	H-PPG	A-PPG	WPPG	vs Avg
1Hearts of Oak	2.33	2.33	2.33	2.45	+0.99
2Medeama	2.33	3	1.67	2.45	+0.99
3Aduana Stars	2	2.25	1.5	2.07	+0.66
4Samartex	2	0	2	1.92	+0.66
5Asante Kotoko	1.8	2.25	0	1.82	+0.46
6Swedru All Blacks FC	1.6	2.33	0.5	1.59	+0.26
7Karela United	1.5	3	0	1.52	+0.16
8Young Apostles	1.5	3	0	1.38	+0.16
9Bibiani Gold Stars	1.4	1.5	1.33	1.38	+0.06
10Port City	1.4	2.33	0	1.35	+0.06
11Basake Holy Stars	1.17	2.33	0	0.97	-0.17
12Debibi United	1	1.5	0	1.17	-0.34
13Berekum Chelsea	1	0	1	1.17	-0.34
14Heart of Lions	0.8	1.33	0	0.75	-0.54
15Ashanti Gold	0.75	3	0	0.58	-0.59
16Dreams	0.6	0.67	0.5	0.63	-0.74
17Vision	0.5	0.67	0	0.49	-0.84
18Bechem United	0.5	0	0.5	0.54	-0.84

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

Basake Holy Stars

PPG: 1.17WPPG: 0.97Gap: ↓ 0.20

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Ashanti Gold

PPG: 0.75WPPG: 0.58Gap: ↓ 0.17

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Debibi United

PPG: 1WPPG: 1.17Gap: ↑ 0.17

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Berekum Chelsea

PPG: 1WPPG: 1.17Gap: ↑ 0.17

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Hearts of Oak

PPG: 2.33WPPG: 2.45Gap: ↑ 0.12

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Worked Example — Hearts of Oak vs Basake Holy Stars

P(Hearts of Oak) = 2.2 / (2.2+1.4) × 1.08

= 0.611 × 1.08 = 56.38% → Fair odds 1.77

P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)

= 17.05% → Fair odds 5.86

P(Basake Holy Stars) = 1 − 56.38% − 17.05%

= 26.56% → Fair odds 3.76

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

1.05

Home xG (λ)

0.91

Away xG (λ)

1.96

Total E[goals]

1.27

League Avg Home

0.73

League Avg Away

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Medeama vs Aduana Stars

24 Oct · Each cell shows the probability of that exact scoreline. Dixon-Coles corrected (ρ = -0.13). · Upcoming

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	15.8%	11.1%	5.8%	1.8%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
1	13.0%	15.2%	6.1%	1.9%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
2	7.8%	7.1%	3.2%	1.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
3	2.7%	2.5%	1.1%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
4	0.7%	0.7%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Most likely High Medium Low

Derived Markets

Home Win

36.38%

Fair odds: 2.75

Draw

34.63%

Fair odds: 2.89

Away Win

29%

Fair odds: 3.45

Over 0.584.16%/ Under 15.84%Fair: 1.19

Over 1.560.05%/ Under 39.95%Fair: 1.67

Over 2.531.24%/ Under 68.76%Fair: 3.2

Over 3.513.56%/ Under 86.44%Fair: 7.37

Over 4.54.9%/ Under 95.1%Fair: 20.42

BTTS Yes40.59%Fair: 2.46

BTTS No59.41%Fair: 1.68

Correct Score — Top 12

10-0

15.84%D

21-1

15.21%D

31-0

13.04%H

40-1

11.07%A

52-0

7.77%H

62-1

7.07%H

71-2

6.12%A

80-2

5.83%A

92-2

3.22%D

103-0

2.72%H

113-1

2.47%H

121-3

1.86%A

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Where the low-score correction adds value

Plain Poisson

P(0-0) = 14.1%

P(1-0) = 14.8%

P(0-1) = 12.8%

P(1-1) = 13.5%

✗ Underestimates 0-0, 1-0, 0-1

Dixon-Coles (ρ correction)

P(0-0) = 15.8% (+1.8%)

P(1-0) = 13.0% (-1.8%)

P(0-1) = 11.1% (-1.8%)

P(1-1) = 15.2% (+1.8%)

✓ Fixes low-score underestimation

💡 Why does this matter? Draws in football are dominated by 0-0 and 1-1. Plain Poisson underprices these by 15–20%. Dixon-Coles corrects this, generating better ROI on draw markets.

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Poisson/Dixon-Coles model — xG computed only from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	2	0	0%	−$20.00	-100%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	2	1	50%	−$5.00	-25%
DC Draw (>28%)	1	0	0%	−$10.00	-100%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Dixon-Coles bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	2	−$20.00	-100%	$0.00	0%	−$14.32	-100%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	2	−$5.00	-25%	$0.00	0%	−$4.66	-22.54%
DC Draw (>28%)	1	−$10.00	-100%	$0.00	0%	−$10.00	-100%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

Team	Att (H)	Def (H)	Att (A)	Def (A)	H GP	A GP
Medeama	2.1	0.91	1.83	0.79	3	3
Ashanti Gold	2.36	1.37	0.91	1.31	1	3
Karela United	1.57	0.68	0.68	1.18	2	2
Bibiani Gold Stars	1.18	1.37	1.37	0.79	2	3
Port City	1.57	1.37	0	0.79	3	2
Aduana Stars	0.98	1.03	1.37	0.39	4	2
Samartex	1	1	1.37	0.39	0	2
Asante Kotoko	0.98	1.37	0	0.79	4	1
Heart of Lions	0.79	1.83	1.37	1.97	3	2
Dreams	1.05	2.28	0.68	0.79	3	2
Berekum Chelsea	1	1	1.37	0.79	0	3
Young Apostles	0.79	0	1.37	1.57	1	1
Hearts of Oak	0.52	0	1.37	0.26	3	3
Swedru All Blacks FC	0.79	0.46	0.68	0.79	3	2
Vision	0.26	0.91	1.37	2.36	3	1
Bechem United	1	1	0.68	1.18	0	4
Basake Holy Stars	0.52	0	0.46	1.84	3	3
Debibi United	0.39	0.68	0	0.79	2	1

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:: Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:: P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:: Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:: Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:: Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1Medeama

1557

2Hearts of Oak

1557

3Aduana Stars

1526

4Samartex

1522

5Swedru All Blacks FC

1513

6Asante Kotoko

1507

7Bibiani Gold Stars

1501

8Young Apostles

1500

9Karela United

1498

10Port City

1496

11Berekum Chelsea

1494

12Debibi United

1485

13Basake Holy Stars

1485

14Bechem United

1483

15Ashanti Gold

1474

16Dreams

1469

17Heart of Lions

1468

18Vision

1466

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo Diff	P(Higher wins)	Fair Odds	Typical Matchup
0	50.0%	2.00	Evenly matched
50	57.1%	1.75	Mid vs mid-lower
100	64.0%	1.56	Top-8 vs bottom-8
150	70.3%	1.42	Top-4 vs relegation
200	76.0%	1.32	Leader vs bottom half
250	80.8%	1.24	Leader vs bottom 3
300	84.9%	1.18	Medeama vs Vision

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

MedeamaHearts of OakAduana StarsSamartexSwedru All Blacks FCAsante Kotoko

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#	Team	Elo	Peak	Δ	GP	W	D	L
1	Medeama	1557	1557	+57	6	4	2	0
2	Hearts of Oak	1557	1557	+57	6	4	2	0
3	Aduana Stars	1526	1528	+26	6	4	0	2
4	Samartex	1522	1522	+22	2	1	1	0
5	Swedru All Blacks FC	1513	1515	+13	5	2	2	1
6	Asante Kotoko	1507	1513	+7	5	3	0	2
7	Bibiani Gold Stars	1501	1517	+1	5	2	1	2
8	Young Apostles	1500	1514	+0	2	1	0	1
9	Karela United	1498	1513	-2	4	2	0	2
10	Port City	1496	1513	-4	5	2	1	2
11	Berekum Chelsea	1494	1500	-6	3	1	0	2
12	Debibi United	1485	1500	-15	3	1	0	2
13	Basake Holy Stars	1485	1514	-15	6	2	1	3
14	Bechem United	1483	1500	-17	4	0	2	2
15	Ashanti Gold	1474	1513	-26	4	1	0	3
16	Dreams	1469	1500	-31	5	0	3	2
17	Heart of Lions	1468	1500	-32	5	1	1	3
18	Vision	1466	1500	-34	4	0	2	2

Elo Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	6	0	0%	−$60.00	-100%
Elo Favourite	8	6	75%	+$15.20	+19%
Elo Draw (>28%)	1	1	100%	+$23.20	+232%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	6	−$60.00	-100%	$0.00	0%	−$58.40	-100%
Elo Favourite	8	+$15.20	+19%	−$12.35	-72.78%	+$20.74	+22.91%
Elo Draw (>28%)	1	+$23.20	+232%	$0.00	0%	+$23.20	+232%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:: Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:: E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:: R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:: Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:: Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

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Premier League Ghana Prediction Models

Flat Betting Model

Odds Range Filter

Market ROI Summary

Staking Plan Comparison

By Team Bets

PPG Model

Odds Range Filter

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

PPG Ratings — All Teams

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Worked Example — Hearts of Oak vs Basake Holy Stars

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Medeama vs Aduana Stars

Derived Markets

Correct Score — Top 12

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Team Attack & Defense Strength

How Poisson Predictions Work

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

Elo → Win Probability Table

Elo Rating History — Top 6

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Elo Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

How Elo Ratings Work

Value Scanner