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Premier League England Prediction Models

2026/2027

Flat Betting Model

80
Matches w/ Odds
$10
Stake Per Bet
+20.96%
Best: Under 2.5
-15.63%
Worst: Away Underdog

Odds Range Filter

1.0
10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for Premier League England. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

MarketBetsWinsWin %StakedReturnP&LROIBest Str.Worst Str.Trend
Home Bet803138.75%$800$747.9−$52.10-6.51%49
Draw Bet802328.75%$800$922.6+$122.60+15.33%311
Away Bet802632.5%$800$725.6−$74.40-9.3%35
Over 2.5804050%$800$701.8−$98.20-12.27%76
Under 2.5804050%$800$967.7+$167.70+20.96%67
BTTS Yes804050%$800$680.5−$119.50-14.94%54
Home Favorite482347.92%$480$412−$68.00-14.17%36
Away Underdog27518.52%$270$227.8−$42.20-15.63%110
Favorite803746.25%$800$688.8−$111.20-13.9%46
Underdog802025%$800$784.7−$15.30-1.91%310

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

MarketBetsFlat P&LFlat ROIKelly ¼ P&LKelly ¼ ROIConf P&LConf ROIComparison
Home Bet80−$52.10-6.51%−$49.06-23.05%−$101.21-12.64%
Draw Bet80+$122.60+15.33%+$8.49+5.32%+$110.05+13.06%
Away Bet80−$74.40-9.3%−$45.09-56.23%−$39.46-4.75%
Over 2.580−$98.20-12.27%−$26.93-26.56%−$95.01-11.43%
Under 2.580+$167.70+20.96%+$23.44+12.61%+$163.77+19.79%
BTTS Yes80−$119.50-14.94%−$9.25-78.99%−$134.34-16.03%
Home Favorite48−$68.00-14.17%−$33.18-38.27%−$62.37-12.87%
Away Underdog27−$42.20-15.63%−$9.48-76.14%−$6.87-2.47%
Favorite80−$111.20-13.9%−$33.12-45.28%−$88.55-11.28%
Underdog80−$15.30-1.91%−$56.26-78.47%+$145.45+16.34%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:
Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:
Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:
Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

By Team Bets

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

TeamBetsWinsWin %P&LROI
Hull City8225%+$65.20+81.5%
Brighton & Hove Albion8562.5%+$47.60+59.5%
Manchester City8787.5%+$36.30+45.38%
Aston Villa8337.5%+$35.70+44.63%
Arsenal FC8787.5%+$26.20+32.75%
Ipswich Town8337.5%+$17.90+22.37%
Liverpool8450%+$7.30+9.13%
Coventry City8225%+$7.00+8.75%
Chelsea8450%−$1.70-2.12%
Newcastle United8337.5%−$8.70-10.88%
Crystal Palace8225%−$18.50-23.12%
Tottenham Hotspur8225%−$21.90-27.38%
Leeds United8225%−$22.30-27.87%
Brentford8225%−$26.20-32.75%
AFC Bournemouth8225%−$28.00-35%
Everton8225%−$38.70-48.37%
Fulham8225%−$40.20-50.25%
Nottingham Forest8112.5%−$46.00-57.5%
Sunderland8112.5%−$52.00-65%
Manchester United8112.5%−$65.50-81.87%

PPG Model

20
Teams
1.36
League Avg PPG
1.08
Home Factor
λ=0.85
WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0
10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for Premier League England. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

StrategyBetsWinsWin %P&LROITrend
PPG Favorite (1×2)752837.33%−$155.10-20.68%
PPG Home Pick341441.18%−$90.50-26.62%
PPG Away Pick411434.15%−$64.60-15.76%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)792835.44%−$187.10-23.68%
PPG Value (fair < market)802227.5%−$150.80-18.85%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:
Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:
Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:
Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:
Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:
Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

StrategyBetsFlat P&LFlat ROIKelly ¼ P&LKelly ¼ ROIConf P&LConf ROIComparison
PPG Favorite (1×2)75−$155.10-20.68%−$51.21-28.19%−$130.48-17.7%
PPG Home Pick34−$90.50-26.62%−$40.33-43.15%−$77.58-23.33%
PPG Away Pick41−$64.60-15.76%−$33.64-52.46%−$45.16-11.08%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)79−$187.10-23.68%−$52.18-28.76%−$159.41-20.73%
PPG Value (fair < market)80−$150.80-18.85%−$58.71-42.62%−$9.93-1.1%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:
Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:
Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:
Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

DateMatchPPG PickProbFair OddsResult✓
25 OctSunderland vs Leeds UnitedLeeds United61.51%1.630 – 0✗
25 OctManchester United vs AFC BournemouthManchester United47.19%2.120 – 3✗
25 OctCrystal Palace vs Newcastle UnitedCrystal Palace40.86%2.450 – 2✗
25 OctHull City vs BrentfordHull City41.25%2.421 – 1✗
25 OctLiverpool vs Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton & Hove Albion41.52%2.412 – 0✗

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

DateMatchPPG PickProbFair Odds
31 OctChelsea vs Manchester UnitedChelsea58.86%1.7
31 OctHull City vs Ipswich Town***0%0
31 OctAFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United
🔒

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31 OctBrentford vs Nottingham Forest
31 OctCoventry City vs Sunderland

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

TeamPPG ↓H-PPGA-PPGWPPGvs AvgStrength
1Arsenal FC2.6332.252.62+1.27
2Manchester City2.6332.252.38+1.27
3Brighton & Hove Albion22.51.51.97+0.64
4Liverpool1.881.252.52.05+0.52
5Chelsea1.631.751.51.51+0.27
6Leeds United1.381.51.251.2+0.02
7Brentford1.381.7511.21+0.02
8Aston Villa1.3811.751.76+0.02
9Newcastle United1.381.251.51.39+0.02
10Hull City1.251.510.99-0.11
11Everton1.251.750.751-0.11
12Ipswich Town1.251.750.751.17-0.11
13Tottenham Hotspur1.1311.251.49-0.23
14AFC Bournemouth1.131.2511.42-0.23
15Fulham1111.38-0.36
16Manchester United0.8810.750.78-0.48
17Crystal Palace0.880.7510.85-0.48
18Coventry City0.750.750.750.83-0.61
19Nottingham Forest0.750.251.250.7-0.61
20Sunderland0.6310.250.53-0.73

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

Aston Villa
PPG: 1.38WPPG: 1.76Gap: ↑ 0.38
Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising
Fulham
PPG: 1WPPG: 1.38Gap: ↑ 0.38
Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising
Tottenham Hotspur
PPG: 1.13WPPG: 1.49Gap: ↑ 0.36
Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising
AFC Bournemouth
PPG: 1.13WPPG: 1.42Gap: ↑ 0.29
Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising
Hull City
PPG: 1.25WPPG: 0.99Gap: ↓ 0.26
Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Worked Example — Sunderland vs Leeds United

Sunderland PPG
0.57
vs
Leeds United PPG
1.43
P(Sunderland) = 0.57 / (0.57+1.43) × 1.08
= 0.285 × 1.08 = 27.81% → Fair odds 3.6
P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)
= 10.68% → Fair odds 9.36
P(Leeds United) = 1 − 27.81% − 10.68%
= 61.51% → Fair odds 1.63

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

2.19
Home xG (λ)
1.72
Away xG (λ)
3.91
Total E[goals]
1.51
League Avg Home
1.26
League Avg Away

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Chelsea vs Manchester United

30 Oct · Each cell shows the probability of that exact scoreline. Dixon-Coles corrected (ρ = -0.13). · Upcoming

H \ A0123456
03.0%2.5%3.0%1.7%0.7%0.3%0.1%
13.4%8.6%6.5%3.8%1.6%0.6%0.2%
24.8%8.3%7.2%4.1%1.8%0.6%0.2%
33.5%6.1%5.2%3.0%1.3%0.4%0.1%
41.9%3.3%2.9%1.6%0.7%0.2%0.1%
50.8%1.5%1.3%0.7%0.3%0.1%0.0%
60.3%0.5%0.5%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Most likely High Medium Low

Derived Markets

Home Win
47.6%
Fair odds: 2.1
Draw
22.63%
Fair odds: 4.42
Away Win
29.77%
Fair odds: 3.36
Over 0.596.99%/ Under 3.01%Fair: 1.03
Over 1.591.06%/ Under 8.94%Fair: 1.1
Over 2.574.61%/ Under 25.39%Fair: 1.34
Over 3.554.45%/ Under 45.55%Fair: 1.84
Over 4.534.75%/ Under 65.25%Fair: 2.88
BTTS Yes73.8%Fair: 1.36
BTTS No26.2%Fair: 3.82

Correct Score — Top 12

11-1
8.61%D
22-1
8.34%H
32-2
7.18%D
41-2
6.55%A
53-1
6.09%H
63-2
5.24%H
72-0
4.85%H
82-3
4.11%A
91-3
3.76%A
103-0
3.54%H
111-0
3.44%H
124-1
3.33%H

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Where the low-score correction adds value

Plain Poisson
P(0-0) = 2.0%
P(1-0) = 4.4%
P(0-1) = 3.5%
P(1-1) = 7.5%
✗ Underestimates 0-0, 1-0, 0-1
Dixon-Coles (ρ correction)
P(0-0) = 3.0% (+1.0%)
P(1-0) = 3.4% (-0.9%)
P(0-1) = 2.5% (-1.0%)
P(1-1) = 8.6% (+1.1%)
✓ Fixes low-score underestimation
💡 Why does this matter? Draws in football are dominated by 0-0 and 1-1. Plain Poisson underprices these by 15–20%. Dixon-Coles corrects this, generating better ROI on draw markets.

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Poisson/Dixon-Coles model — xG computed only from matches played before each bet.

StrategyBetsWinsWin %P&LROITrend
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)651726.15%−$134.80-20.74%
DC Home Pick (>50%)311238.71%−$103.60-33.42%
DC Away Pick (>50%)8450%+$4.00+5%
DC Draw (>28%)23939.13%+$95.80+41.65%
DC Over 2.5 Value311548.39%−$41.10-13.26%
DC BTTS Value211361.9%+$13.80+6.57%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Dixon-Coles bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

StrategyBetsFlat P&LFlat ROIKelly ¼ P&LKelly ¼ ROIConf P&LConf ROIComparison
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)65−$134.80-20.74%−$42.20-57.5%−$125.99-20.15%
DC Home Pick (>50%)31−$103.60-33.42%−$17.03-100%−$85.15-24.64%
DC Away Pick (>50%)8+$4.00+5%−$12.34-100%+$19.01+19.49%
DC Draw (>28%)23+$95.80+41.65%−$1.34-2.2%+$120.65+50.73%
DC Over 2.5 Value31−$41.10-13.26%−$5.15-28.27%−$42.54-12.72%
DC BTTS Value21+$13.80+6.57%+$5.44+16.8%+$9.26+4.23%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:
Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:
Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:
Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

TeamAtt (H)Def (H)Att (A)Def (A)H GPA GP
Brighton & Hove Albion1.780.421.640.9644
Manchester City1.730.991.650.5744
Chelsea1.511.421.251.0844
Brentford1.260.71.111.0244
Arsenal FC1.460.420.960.5244
Ipswich Town0.890.991.261.5544
AFC Bournemouth0.890.811.341.3844
Newcastle United1.071.221.041.1744
Liverpool0.830.951.340.7144
Manchester United1.111.270.960.9644
Hull City0.890.730.860.8944
Crystal Palace0.881.650.721.3144
Leeds United0.990.70.690.7344
Aston Villa0.921.110.870.9744
Everton0.850.910.70.8244
Tottenham Hotspur0.811.240.770.7444
Fulham11.210.510.6944
Coventry City0.771.390.61.1144
Sunderland0.40.810.91.4344
Nottingham Forest0.230.731.21.0944

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:
Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:
P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:
Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:
Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:
Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1Arsenal FC
1583
2Manchester City
1578
3Liverpool
1547
4Brighton & Hove Albion
1543
5Aston Villa
1513
6Chelsea
1512
7Brentford
1511
8Leeds United
1509
9Everton
1498
10Newcastle United
1497
11Hull City
1493
12Tottenham Hotspur
1492
13AFC Bournemouth
1491
14Ipswich Town
1484
15Fulham
1478
16Manchester United
1469
17Crystal Palace
1458
18Nottingham Forest
1455
19Sunderland
1447
20Coventry City
1445

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo DiffP(Higher wins)Fair OddsTypical Matchup
050.0%2.00Evenly matched
5057.1%1.75Mid vs mid-lower
10064.0%1.56Top-8 vs bottom-8
15070.3%1.42Top-4 vs relegation
20076.0%1.32Leader vs bottom half
25080.8%1.24Leader vs bottom 3
30084.9%1.18Arsenal FC vs Coventry City

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

144615261605
Arsenal FCManchester CityLiverpoolBrighton & Hove AlbionAston VillaChelsea

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#TeamEloPeakΔGPWDL
1Arsenal FC15831583+838701
2Manchester City15781595+788701
3Liverpool15471547+478431
4Brighton & Hove Albion15431557+438512
5Aston Villa15131513+138323
6Chelsea15121534+128413
7Brentford15111528+118251
8Leeds United15091531+98251
9Everton14981527-28242
10Newcastle United14971516-38323
11Hull City14931531-78242
12Tottenham Hotspur14921500-88233
13AFC Bournemouth14911500-98233
14Ipswich Town14841513-168314
15Fulham14781500-238224
16Manchester United14691505-318143
17Crystal Palace14581500-428215
18Nottingham Forest14551500-458134
19Sunderland14471503-538125
20Coventry City14451500-558206

Elo Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.

StrategyBetsWinsWin %P&LROITrend
Elo Value (edge > 3%)501224%−$23.70-4.74%
Elo Favourite602033%−$186.50-31.08%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)22100%+$6.10+30.5%
Elo Draw (>28%)20630%+$18.50+9.25%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

StrategyBetsFlat P&LFlat ROIKelly ¼ P&LKelly ¼ ROIConf P&LConf ROIComparison
Elo Value (edge > 3%)50−$23.70-4.74%−$18.14-36.51%−$24.23-4.61%
Elo Favourite60−$186.50-31.08%−$12.81-100%−$179.58-28.21%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)2+$6.10+30.5%$0.000%+$6.32+30.27%
Elo Draw (>28%)20+$18.50+9.25%−$34.89-69.41%+$30.54+15.33%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:
Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:
Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:
Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:
Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:
E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:
R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:
Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:
Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

No upcoming matches with odds available. Please check back later.