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Premier League Canada Prediction Models

2026

Flat Betting Model

Matches w/ Odds

$10

Stake Per Bet

+55%

Best: Home Favorite

-100%

Worst: Away Underdog

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for Canadian Premier League Canada. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

Market	Bets	Wins	Win %	Staked	Return	P&L	ROI	Best Str.	Worst Str.
Home Bet	4	2	50%	$40	$47.5	+$7.50	+18.75%	1	1
Draw Bet	4	1	25%	$40	$50	+$10.00	+25%	1	3
Away Bet	4	1	25%	$40	$15.5	−$24.50	-61.25%	1	2
Over 2.5	4	2	50%	$40	$28	−$12.00	-30%	2	1
Under 2.5	4	2	50%	$40	$53.5	+$13.50	+33.75%	1	2
BTTS Yes	4	3	75%	$40	$46	+$6.00	+15%	3	1
Home Favorite	1	1	100%	$10	$15.5	+$5.50	+55%	1	0
Away Underdog	1	0	0%	$10	$0	−$10.00	-100%	0	1
Favorite	4	2	50%	$40	$31	−$9.00	-22.5%	2	2
Underdog	4	1	25%	$40	$32	−$8.00	-20%	1	2

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

Market	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Home Bet	4	+$7.50	+18.75%	$0.00	0%	+$14.63	+60.38%
Draw Bet	4	+$10.00	+25%	$0.00	0%	+$1.30	+3.39%
Away Bet	4	−$24.50	-61.25%	$0.00	0%	−$22.37	-32.48%
Over 2.5	4	−$12.00	-30%	$0.00	0%	−$11.86	-27.65%
Under 2.5	4	+$13.50	+33.75%	$0.00	0%	+$14.83	+41.82%
BTTS Yes	4	+$6.00	+15%	$0.00	0%	+$6.11	+14.65%
Home Favorite	1	+$5.50	+55%	$0.00	0%	+$5.50	+55%
Away Underdog	1	−$10.00	-100%	$0.00	0%	−$10.00	-100%
Favorite	4	−$9.00	-22.5%	$0.00	0%	−$9.56	-23.57%
Underdog	4	−$8.00	-20%	$0.00	0%	+$7.02	+16.85%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

Team	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
York United	1	1	100%	+$22.00	+220%
Cavalry	1	1	100%	+$5.50	+55%
Supra du Quebec	1	1	100%	+$5.50	+55%
Forge	1	0	0%	−$10.00	-100%
Pacific	1	0	0%	−$10.00	-100%
HFX Wanderers	1	0	0%	−$10.00	-100%
Atlético Ottawa	1	0	0%	−$10.00	-100%
Vancouver FC	1	0	0%	−$10.00	-100%

PPG Model

Teams

1.37

League Avg PPG

1.08

Home Factor

λ=0.85

WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for Canadian Premier League Canada. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	4	1	25%	−$24.50	-61.25%
PPG Away Pick	4	1	25%	−$24.50	-61.25%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	4	1	25%	−$24.50	-61.25%
PPG Value (fair < market)	4	0	0%	−$40.00	-100%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:: Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:: Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:: Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:: Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:: Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	4	−$24.50	-61.25%	$0.00	0%	−$22.37	-32.48%
PPG Away Pick	4	−$24.50	-61.25%	$0.00	0%	−$22.37	-32.48%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	4	−$24.50	-61.25%	$0.00	0%	−$22.37	-32.48%
PPG Value (fair < market)	4	−$40.00	-100%	$0.00	0%	−$50.63	-100%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds	Result	✓
25 Oct	Pacific vs Forge	Forge	71.12%	1.41	1 – 1	✗
25 Oct	York United vs Atlético Ottawa	Atlético Ottawa	71.63%	1.4	2 – 1	✗
25 Oct	HFX Wanderers vs Supra du Quebec	Supra du Quebec	73.06%	1.37	3 – 4	✓
25 Oct	Cavalry vs Vancouver FC	Cavalry	40.22%	2.49	1 – 0	✓
17 Oct	Cavalry vs Pacific	Cavalry	51.39%	1.95	4 – 2	✓

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

Team	PPG ↓	H-PPG	A-PPG	WPPG	vs Avg
1Supra du Quebec	2.17	2.33	2	2.33	+0.80
2Forge	2	2.33	1.67	2.05	+0.63
3Atlético Ottawa	1.8	1.5	2	1.5	+0.43
4Cavalry	1.67	3	0.33	1.83	+0.30
5Vancouver FC	1.25	2	0.5	1.22	-0.12
6York United	1	1.5	0	1.1	-0.37
7Pacific	0.67	0.5	0.75	0.56	-0.70
8HFX Wanderers	0.4	0.33	0.5	0.36	-0.97

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

Atlético Ottawa

PPG: 1.8WPPG: 1.5Gap: ↓ 0.30

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Supra du Quebec

PPG: 2.17WPPG: 2.33Gap: ↑ 0.16

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Cavalry

PPG: 1.67WPPG: 1.83Gap: ↑ 0.16

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Pacific

PPG: 0.67WPPG: 0.56Gap: ↓ 0.11

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

York United

PPG: 1WPPG: 1.1Gap: ↑ 0.10

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Worked Example — Pacific vs Forge

P(Pacific) = 0.6 / (0.6+2.2) × 1.08

= 0.214 × 1.08 = 21.57% → Fair odds 4.64

P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)

= 7.31% → Fair odds 13.68

P(Forge) = 1 − 21.57% − 7.31%

= 71.12% → Fair odds 1.41

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

1.39

Home xG (λ)

1.14

Away xG (λ)

2.53

Total E[goals]

2.45

League Avg Home

1.41

League Avg Away

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — HFX Wanderers vs Supra du Quebec

24 Oct · Each cell shows the probability of that exact scoreline. Dixon-Coles corrected (ρ = -0.13). Actual result: 3–4

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	9.6%	7.5%	5.2%	2.0%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%
1	9.4%	14.3%	7.2%	2.7%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%
2	7.7%	8.8%	5.0%	1.9%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
3	3.6%	4.1%	2.3%	0.9%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%
4	1.2%	1.4%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
5	0.3%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Most likely High Medium Low

Derived Markets

Home Win

40.96%

Fair odds: 2.44

Market: 4.75 (21.1%)

Draw

29.87%

Fair odds: 3.35

Market: 4.10 (24.4%)

Away Win

29.17%

Fair odds: 3.43

Market: 1.55 (64.5%)

Over 0.590.39%/ Under 9.61%Fair: 1.11

Over 1.573.5%/ Under 26.5%Fair: 1.36

Over 2.546.34%/ Under 53.66%Fair: 2.16

Over 3.524.83%/ Under 75.17%Fair: 4.03

Over 4.511.22%/ Under 88.78%Fair: 8.91

BTTS Yes52.7%Fair: 1.9

BTTS No47.3%Fair: 2.11

Correct Score — Top 12

11-1

14.27%D

20-0

9.61%D

31-0

9.44%H

42-1

8.78%H

52-0

7.7%H

60-1

7.45%A

71-2

7.2%A

80-2

5.18%A

92-2

5%D

103-1

4.07%H

113-0

3.57%H

121-3

2.74%A

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Where the low-score correction adds value

Plain Poisson

P(0-0) = 8.0%

P(1-0) = 11.1%

P(0-1) = 9.1%

P(1-1) = 12.6%

✗ Underestimates 0-0, 1-0, 0-1

Dixon-Coles (ρ correction)

P(0-0) = 9.6% (+1.6%)

P(1-0) = 9.4% (-1.6%)

P(0-1) = 7.5% (-1.6%)

P(1-1) = 14.3% (+1.7%)

✓ Fixes low-score underestimation

💡 Why does this matter? Draws in football are dominated by 0-0 and 1-1. Plain Poisson underprices these by 15–20%. Dixon-Coles corrects this, generating better ROI on draw markets.

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Poisson/Dixon-Coles model — xG computed only from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Win %	P&L	ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	2	0%	−$20.00	-100%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	1	0%	−$10.00	-100%
DC Draw (>28%)	1	0%	−$10.00	-100%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Dixon-Coles bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	2	−$20.00	-100%	$0.00	0%	−$34.87	-100%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	1	−$10.00	-100%	$0.00	0%	−$10.00	-100%
DC Draw (>28%)	1	−$10.00	-100%	$0.00	0%	−$10.00	-100%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

Team	Att (H)	Def (H)	Att (A)	Def (A)	H GP	A GP
Cavalry	1.5	0.47	1.18	1.09	3	3
Supra du Quebec	1.36	0.47	1.42	1.36	3	3
Forge	1.5	0.71	0.95	0.41	3	3
HFX Wanderers	0.68	1.65	1.42	1.02	3	2
Atlético Ottawa	0.82	1.42	0.95	0.27	2	3
York United	0.92	1.42	0	1.63	4	2
Vancouver FC	0.61	0.71	0.71	0.61	2	2
Pacific	0.2	1.06	1.06	1.53	2	4

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:: Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:: P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:: Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:: Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:: Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1Supra du Quebec

1543

2Forge

1543

3Cavalry

1515

4Atlético Ottawa

1512

5Vancouver FC

1500

6York United

1470

7Pacific

1463

8HFX Wanderers

1453

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo Diff	P(Higher wins)	Fair Odds	Typical Matchup
0	50.0%	2.00	Evenly matched
50	57.1%	1.75	Mid vs mid-lower
100	64.0%	1.56	Top-8 vs bottom-8
150	70.3%	1.42	Top-4 vs relegation
200	76.0%	1.32	Leader vs bottom half
250	80.8%	1.24	Leader vs bottom 3
300	84.9%	1.18	Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

Supra du QuebecForgeCavalryAtlético OttawaVancouver FCYork United

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#	Team	Elo	Peak	Δ	GP	W	D	L
1	Supra du Quebec	1543	1543	+43	6	4	1	1
2	Forge	1543	1544	+43	6	3	3	0
3	Cavalry	1515	1515	+15	6	3	1	2
4	Atlético Ottawa	1512	1549	+12	5	3	0	2
5	Vancouver FC	1500	1513	-0	4	1	2	1
6	York United	1470	1500	-30	6	2	0	4
7	Pacific	1463	1519	-38	6	1	1	4
8	HFX Wanderers	1453	1500	-47	5	0	2	3

Elo Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	4	0	0%	−$40.00	-100%
Elo Favourite	4	1	25%	−$24.50	-61.25%
Elo Draw (>28%)	3	1	33%	+$20.00	+66.67%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	4	−$40.00	-100%	$0.00	0%	−$39.71	-100%
Elo Favourite	4	−$24.50	-61.25%	$0.00	0%	−$26.35	-62.96%
Elo Draw (>28%)	3	+$20.00	+66.67%	$0.00	0%	+$10.77	+37.55%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:: Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:: E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:: R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:: Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:: Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

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Premier League Canada Prediction Models

Flat Betting Model

Odds Range Filter

Market ROI Summary

Staking Plan Comparison

By Team Bets

PPG Model

Odds Range Filter

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

PPG Ratings — All Teams

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Worked Example — Pacific vs Forge

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — HFX Wanderers vs Supra du Quebec

Derived Markets

Correct Score — Top 12

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Team Attack & Defense Strength

How Poisson Predictions Work

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

Elo → Win Probability Table

Elo Rating History — Top 6

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Elo Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

How Elo Ratings Work

Value Scanner