18+ gambleaware.org

NPFL Nigeria Prediction Models

2026/2027

Flat Betting Model

35
Matches w/ Odds
$10
Stake Per Bet
+30.14%
Best: Under 2.5
-27.49%
Worst: Underdog

Odds Range Filter

1.0
10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for NPFL Nigeria. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

MarketBetsWinsWin %StakedReturnP&LROIBest Str.Worst Str.Trend
Home Bet351851.43%$350$281.9−$68.10-19.46%53
Draw Bet351131.43%$350$387.5+$37.50+10.71%29
Away Bet35617.14%$350$286.8−$63.20-18.06%224
Over 2.5351337.14%$350$308.5−$41.50-11.86%25
Under 2.5352262.86%$350$455.5+$105.50+30.14%52
BTTS Yes351542.86%$350$329−$21.00-6%35
Home Favorite341852.94%$340$281.9−$58.10-17.09%53
Away Underdog30516.67%$300$253.8−$46.20-15.4%221
Favorite351954.29%$350$314.9−$35.10-10.03%53
Underdog35514.29%$350$253.8−$96.20-27.49%224

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

MarketBetsFlat P&LFlat ROIKelly ¼ P&LKelly ¼ ROIConf P&LConf ROIComparison
Home Bet35−$68.10-19.46%−$8.94-84.74%−$60.34-16.53%
Draw Bet35+$37.50+10.71%+$7.09+123.52%+$33.64+9.56%
Away Bet35−$63.20-18.06%−$23.05-20.79%+$10.69+2.96%
Over 2.535−$41.50-11.86%−$9.35-49.87%−$52.08-14.63%
Under 2.535+$105.50+30.14%+$115.69+62.79%+$88.92+22.56%
BTTS Yes35−$21.00-6%−$39.93-65.26%−$11.17-3.13%
Home Favorite34−$58.10-17.09%−$11.86-60.63%−$55.59-16.24%
Away Underdog30−$46.20-15.4%−$25.87-53.09%−$9.81-2.98%
Favorite35−$35.10-10.03%−$15.19-51.77%−$46.02-12.62%
Underdog35−$96.20-27.49%−$24.96-57.41%−$79.90-22.13%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:
Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:
Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:
Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

By Team Bets

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

TeamBetsWinsWin %P&LROI
Sporting Lagos6350%+$59.50+99.17%
Abia Warriors4250%+$32.20+80.5%
Nasarawa United4375%+$28.80+72%
Inter Lagos4125%+$17.30+43.25%
Plateau United4375%+$4.30+10.75%
Ikorodu City3266.67%+$2.00+6.67%
Enugu Rangers5240%−$2.60-5.2%
Katsina United2150%−$4.00-20%
Shooting Stars4250%−$10.80-27%
Niger Tornadoes3133.33%−$14.50-48.33%
Kun Khalifat4125%−$21.70-54.25%
Rivers United3133.33%−$17.10-57%
Barau4125%−$23.80-59.5%
Kano Pillars5120%−$30.90-61.8%
Bendel Insurance200%−$20.00-100%
Enyimba400%−$40.00-100%
Kwara United200%−$20.00-100%
Ranchers Bees300%−$30.00-100%
Warri Wolves FC100%−$10.00-100%
Doma United300%−$30.00-100%

PPG Model

20
Teams
1.29
League Avg PPG
1.08
Home Factor
λ=0.85
WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0
10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for NPFL Nigeria. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

StrategyBetsWinsWin %P&LROITrend
PPG Favorite (1×2)25728%−$96.60-38.64%
PPG Home Pick10550%−$27.10-27.1%
PPG Away Pick15213.33%−$69.50-46.33%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)27725.93%−$116.60-43.19%
PPG Value (fair < market)28517.86%−$109.60-39.14%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:
Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:
Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:
Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:
Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:
Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

StrategyBetsFlat P&LFlat ROIKelly ¼ P&LKelly ¼ ROIConf P&LConf ROIComparison
PPG Favorite (1×2)25−$96.60-38.64%−$52.44-100%−$60.39-20.6%
PPG Home Pick10−$27.10-27.1%−$4.82-22.96%−$28.40-28.5%
PPG Away Pick15−$69.50-46.33%−$0.47-100%−$55.14-36.24%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)27−$116.60-43.19%−$54.66-100%−$76.05-24.4%
PPG Value (fair < market)28−$109.60-39.14%−$21.05-100%−$69.83-23.9%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:
Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:
Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:
Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

DateMatchPPG PickProbFair OddsResult✓
18 OctEnyimba vs Warri Wolves FCEnyimba80.97%1.230 – 0✗
18 OctInter Lagos vs Nasarawa UnitedNasarawa United47.67%2.10 – 2✓
18 OctNiger Tornadoes vs Ikorodu CityNiger Tornadoes41.25%2.422 – 1✓
18 OctPlateau United vs Sporting LagosPlateau United44.65%2.242 – 3✗
18 OctRivers United vs BarauRivers United45.8%2.180 – 0✗

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

DateMatchPPG PickProbFair Odds
18 OctEnugu Rangers vs Bendel InsuranceEnugu Rangers68.76%1.45
24 OctKatsina United vs Plateau United***0%0
25 OctNasarawa United vs Enyimba
🔒

Login or register for free to see predictions data.

25 OctKun Khalifat vs Inter Lagos
25 OctIkorodu City vs Shooting Stars

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

TeamPPG ↓H-PPGA-PPGWPPGvs AvgStrength
1Sporting Lagos1.881.252.52+0.59
2Rivers United1.862.511.68+0.57
3Enugu Rangers1.8321.751.78+0.54
4Nasarawa United1.8331.252.06+0.54
5Abia Warriors1.7521.51.69+0.46
6Barau1.672.3311.51+0.38
7Plateau United1.572.250.671.46+0.28
8Niger Tornadoes1.520.51.68+0.21
9Doma United1.33201.23+0.04
10Shooting Stars1.33201.48+0.04
11Katsina United1.2520.51.43-0.04
12Kano Pillars1.220.671.01-0.09
13Ikorodu City1.142.330.251.13-0.15
14Enyimba11.401.11-0.29
15Kwara United1300.84-0.29
16Inter Lagos0.830.51.50.73-0.46
17Ranchers Bees0.831.6700.76-0.46
18Kun Khalifat0.81.50.330.85-0.49
19Bendel Insurance0.75300.68-0.54
20Warri Wolves FC0.400.50.44-0.89

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

Nasarawa United
PPG: 1.83WPPG: 2.06Gap: ↑ 0.23
Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising
Kano Pillars
PPG: 1.2WPPG: 1.01Gap: ↓ 0.19
Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG
Rivers United
PPG: 1.86WPPG: 1.68Gap: ↓ 0.18
Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG
Niger Tornadoes
PPG: 1.5WPPG: 1.68Gap: ↑ 0.18
Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising
Katsina United
PPG: 1.25WPPG: 1.43Gap: ↑ 0.18
Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Worked Example — Enyimba vs Warri Wolves FC

Enyimba PPG
1
vs
Warri Wolves FC PPG
0.25
P(Enyimba) = 1 / (1+0.25) × 1.08
= 0.800 × 1.08 = 80.97% → Fair odds 1.23
P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)
= 6.7% → Fair odds 14.93
P(Warri Wolves FC) = 1 − 80.97% − 6.7%
= 12.33% → Fair odds 8.11

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

1.55
Home xG (λ)
0.43
Away xG (λ)
1.98
Total E[goals]
1.51
League Avg Home
0.77
League Avg Away

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Enugu Rangers vs Bendel Insurance

17 Oct · Each cell shows the probability of that exact scoreline. Dixon-Coles corrected (ρ = -0.13). · Upcoming

H \ A0123456
015.0%4.8%1.3%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
120.2%10.4%2.0%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%
216.6%7.1%1.5%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
38.6%3.7%0.8%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
43.3%1.4%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
51.0%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
60.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Most likely High Medium Low

Derived Markets

Home Win
64.13%
Fair odds: 1.56
Draw
27.08%
Fair odds: 3.69
Away Win
8.79%
Fair odds: 11.38
Over 0.584.98%/ Under 15.02%Fair: 1.18
Over 1.560.01%/ Under 39.99%Fair: 1.67
Over 2.531.71%/ Under 68.29%Fair: 3.15
Over 3.513.83%/ Under 86.17%Fair: 7.23
Over 4.54.98%/ Under 95.02%Fair: 20.08
BTTS Yes28.72%Fair: 3.48
BTTS No71.28%Fair: 1.4

Correct Score — Top 12

11-0
20.23%H
22-0
16.6%H
30-0
15.02%D
41-1
10.41%D
53-0
8.58%H
62-1
7.14%H
70-1
4.75%A
83-1
3.69%H
94-0
3.32%H
101-2
1.98%A
112-2
1.54%D
124-1
1.43%H

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Where the low-score correction adds value

Plain Poisson
P(0-0) = 13.8%
P(1-0) = 21.4%
P(0-1) = 5.9%
P(1-1) = 9.2%
✗ Underestimates 0-0, 1-0, 0-1
Dixon-Coles (ρ correction)
P(0-0) = 15.0% (+1.2%)
P(1-0) = 20.2% (-1.2%)
P(0-1) = 4.8% (-1.2%)
P(1-1) = 10.4% (+1.2%)
✓ Fixes low-score underestimation
💡 Why does this matter? Draws in football are dominated by 0-0 and 1-1. Plain Poisson underprices these by 15–20%. Dixon-Coles corrects this, generating better ROI on draw markets.

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Poisson/Dixon-Coles model — xG computed only from matches played before each bet.

StrategyBetsWinsWin %P&LROITrend
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)8337.5%+$33.50+41.88%
DC Home Pick (>50%)500%−$50.00-100%
DC Away Pick (>50%)11100%+$28.00+280%
DC Draw (>28%)7228.57%+$5.50+7.86%
DC Over 2.5 Value22100%+$26.00+130%
DC BTTS Value22100%+$22.20+111%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Dixon-Coles bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

StrategyBetsFlat P&LFlat ROIKelly ¼ P&LKelly ¼ ROIConf P&LConf ROIComparison
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)8+$33.50+41.88%+$2.16+280.52%−$1.59-1.92%
DC Home Pick (>50%)5−$50.00-100%$0.000%−$55.13-100%
DC Away Pick (>50%)1+$28.00+280%$0.000%+$28.00+280%
DC Draw (>28%)7+$5.50+7.86%$0.000%−$0.41-0.6%
DC Over 2.5 Value2+$26.00+130%$0.000%+$28.09+128.26%
DC BTTS Value2+$22.20+111%$0.000%+$22.92+110.78%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:
Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:
Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:
Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

TeamAtt (H)Def (H)Att (A)Def (A)H GPA GP
Plateau United1.821.31.31.143
Sporting Lagos0.51.33.250.8344
Enugu Rangers0.660.652.270.9924
Katsina United1.661.950.650.9922
Enyimba1.061.561.31.9952
Rivers United1.4900.430.2243
Barau1.551.30.430.2233
Shooting Stars0.830.321.952.3242
Abia Warriors0.9901.30.6622
Kano Pillars1.661.30.431.123
Doma United0.990.970.651.9942
Nasarawa United0.9901.30.524
Bendel Insurance1.321.30.871.5513
Ikorodu City0.8800.650.9934
Kun Khalifat0.992.60.431.5523
Niger Tornadoes0.660.6500.3342
Ranchers Bees0.440.430.871.5533
Kwara United1.321.300.9912
Inter Lagos0.332.270.650.6642
Warri Wolves FC01.300.514

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:
Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:
P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:
Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:
Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:
Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1Sporting Lagos
1545
2Rivers United
1538
3Nasarawa United
1536
4Enugu Rangers
1534
5Barau
1532
6Abia Warriors
1517
7Niger Tornadoes
1510
8Plateau United
1508
9Kano Pillars
1501
10Katsina United
1501
11Shooting Stars
1495
12Doma United
1492
13Ikorodu City
1491
14Kwara United
1485
15Bendel Insurance
1475
16Kun Khalifat
1475
17Ranchers Bees
1471
18Enyimba
1465
19Inter Lagos
1465
20Warri Wolves FC
1464

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo DiffP(Higher wins)Fair OddsTypical Matchup
050.0%2.00Evenly matched
5057.1%1.75Mid vs mid-lower
10064.0%1.56Top-8 vs bottom-8
15070.3%1.42Top-4 vs relegation
20076.0%1.32Leader vs bottom half
25080.8%1.24Leader vs bottom 3
30084.9%1.18Sporting Lagos vs Warri Wolves FC

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

148015171555
Sporting LagosRivers UnitedNasarawa UnitedEnugu RangersBarauAbia Warriors

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#TeamEloPeakΔGPWDL
1Sporting Lagos15451545+458431
2Rivers United15381541+387340
3Nasarawa United15361536+366321
4Enugu Rangers15341534+346321
5Barau15321532+326240
6Abia Warriors15171520+174211
7Niger Tornadoes15101510+106231
8Plateau United15081530+87322
9Kano Pillars15011516+15131
10Katsina United15011501+14121
11Shooting Stars14951501-56222
12Doma United14921513-86222
13Ikorodu City14911504-97223
14Kwara United14851513-153102
15Bendel Insurance14751500-254103
16Kun Khalifat14751500-255113
17Ranchers Bees14711501-296123
18Enyimba14651500-357214
19Inter Lagos14651500-356123
20Warri Wolves FC14641500-365023

Elo Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.

StrategyBetsWinsWin %P&LROITrend
Elo Value (edge > 3%)23313%−$89.50-38.91%
Elo Favourite241250%−$55.30-23.04%
Elo Draw (>28%)5240%+$13.60+27.2%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

StrategyBetsFlat P&LFlat ROIKelly ¼ P&LKelly ¼ ROIConf P&LConf ROIComparison
Elo Value (edge > 3%)23−$89.50-38.91%−$2.72-100%−$59.87-26.8%
Elo Favourite24−$55.30-23.04%−$18.01-73.93%−$53.04-21.41%
Elo Draw (>28%)5+$13.60+27.2%$0.000%+$15.31+30.48%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:
Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:
Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:
Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:
Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:
E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:
R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:
Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:
Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

No upcoming matches with odds available. Please check back later.