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Meistriliiga Estonia Prediction Models

2026

Flat Betting Model

Matches w/ Odds

$10

Stake Per Bet

+47.12%

Best: Away Underdog

-46.04%

Worst: Draw Bet

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for Meistriliiga Estonia. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

Market	Bets	Wins	Win %	Staked	Return	P&L	ROI	Best Str.	Worst Str.
Home Bet	70	37	52.86%	$700	$780.2	+$80.20	+11.46%	5	5
Draw Bet	70	8	11.43%	$700	$377.7	−$322.30	-46.04%	1	16
Away Bet	70	25	35.71%	$700	$690.5	−$9.50	-1.36%	3	6
Over 2.5	69	43	62.32%	$690	$756.9	+$66.90	+9.7%	7	3
Under 2.5	69	26	37.68%	$690	$640.8	−$49.20	-7.13%	3	7
BTTS Yes	69	39	56.52%	$690	$629.3	−$60.70	-8.8%	7	4
Home Favorite	42	30	71.43%	$420	$511.6	+$91.60	+21.81%	9	3
Away Underdog	17	4	23.53%	$170	$250.1	+$80.10	+47.12%	1	4
Favorite	70	46	65.71%	$700	$794.6	+$94.60	+13.51%	7	3
Underdog	70	16	22.86%	$700	$676.1	−$23.90	-3.41%	2	8

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

Market	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Home Bet	70	+$80.20	+11.46%	−$35.38	-14.01%	+$122.32	+17.41%
Draw Bet	70	−$322.30	-46.04%	−$1.32	-100%	−$371.56	-51.43%
Away Bet	70	−$9.50	-1.36%	−$13.15	-6.83%	−$35.48	-4.73%
Over 2.5	69	+$66.90	+9.7%	+$10.97	+5.43%	+$60.97	+8.29%
Under 2.5	69	−$49.20	-7.13%	−$39.14	-42.46%	−$33.63	-4.73%
BTTS Yes	69	−$60.70	-8.8%	−$18.56	-43.81%	−$67.00	-9.55%
Home Favorite	42	+$91.60	+21.81%	+$35.33	+16.54%	+$86.05	+20.4%
Away Underdog	17	+$80.10	+47.12%	−$11.81	-50.19%	+$73.25	+40.07%
Favorite	70	+$94.60	+13.51%	+$33.94	+15.58%	+$79.95	+11.3%
Underdog	70	−$23.90	-3.41%	−$36.52	-44.13%	+$12.34	+1.63%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

Team	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Laagri	14	7	50%	+$116.60	+83.29%
Kuressaare	13	5	38.46%	+$93.90	+72.23%
Tammeka	16	8	50%	+$40.90	+25.56%
Paide	13	9	69.23%	+$29.40	+22.62%
FCI Levadia	15	13	86.67%	+$22.00	+14.67%
Nõmme United	14	4	28.57%	−$2.30	-1.64%
Flora	15	7	46.67%	−$24.00	-16%
Nõmme Kalju	13	6	46.15%	−$25.40	-19.54%
Vaprus	13	2	15.38%	−$76.50	-58.85%
Trans	14	1	7.14%	−$103.90	-74.21%

PPG Model

Teams

1.44

League Avg PPG

1.08

Home Factor

λ=0.85

WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for Meistriliiga Estonia. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	70	48	68.57%	+$173.20	+24.74%
PPG Home Pick	37	29	78.38%	+$127.70	+34.51%
PPG Away Pick	33	19	57.58%	+$45.50	+13.79%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	70	47	67.14%	+$186.00	+26.57%
PPG Value (fair < market)	70	25	35.71%	+$48.90	+6.99%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:: Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:: Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:: Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:: Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:: Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	70	+$173.20	+24.74%	+$249.72	+29.46%	+$128.02	+18.24%
PPG Home Pick	37	+$127.70	+34.51%	+$189.41	+38.71%	+$106.44	+28.28%
PPG Away Pick	33	+$45.50	+13.79%	+$39.34	+42.36%	+$23.65	+7.31%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	70	+$186.00	+26.57%	+$313.13	+50.8%	+$143.25	+19.78%
PPG Value (fair < market)	70	+$48.90	+6.99%	−$52.92	-32.05%	+$144.08	+20.97%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds	Result	✓
27 Oct	Trans vs Nõmme United	Nõmme United	49.46%	2.02	0 – 1	✓
27 Oct	FCI Levadia vs Tammeka	FCI Levadia	58.35%	1.71	2 – 1	✓
25 Oct	Nõmme Kalju vs Flora	Nõmme Kalju	41.27%	2.42	2 – 1	✓
24 Oct	FCI Levadia vs Laagri	FCI Levadia	60.13%	1.66	2 – 1	✓
24 Oct	Kuressaare vs Paide	Paide	48.35%	2.07	0 – 1	✓

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds
28 Oct	Vaprus vs Kuressaare	Vaprus	43.29%	2.31
28 Oct	Paide vs Nõmme Kalju	***	0%	0
31 Oct	Vaprus vs Paide	🔒 Login or register for free to see predictions data.
31 Oct	Tammeka vs Laagri
31 Oct	Nõmme United vs FCI Levadia

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

Team	PPG ↓	H-PPG	A-PPG	WPPG	vs Avg
1FCI Levadia	2.56	2.47	2.65	2.78	+1.12
2Paide	1.82	1.94	1.71	2.2	+0.38
3Flora	1.71	1.76	1.65	1.24	+0.27
4Nõmme Kalju	1.64	1.59	1.69	1.39	+0.20
5Tammeka	1.47	1.75	1.22	1.23	+0.03
6Laagri	1.38	1.61	1.13	1.78	-0.06
7Nõmme United	1.09	1.06	1.12	1.47	-0.35
8Vaprus	1.09	1.56	0.65	0.68	-0.35
9Kuressaare	1.06	1.24	0.88	1.13	-0.38
10Trans	0.59	0.88	0.29	0.35	-0.85

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

Flora

PPG: 1.71WPPG: 1.24Gap: ↓ 0.47

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Vaprus

PPG: 1.09WPPG: 0.68Gap: ↓ 0.41

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Laagri

PPG: 1.38WPPG: 1.78Gap: ↑ 0.40

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Paide

PPG: 1.82WPPG: 2.2Gap: ↑ 0.38

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Nõmme United

PPG: 1.09WPPG: 1.47Gap: ↑ 0.38

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Worked Example — Trans vs Nõmme United

P(Trans) = 0.61 / (0.61+1.03) × 1.08

= 0.372 × 1.08 = 34.67% → Fair odds 2.88

P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)

= 15.87% → Fair odds 6.3

P(Nõmme United) = 1 − 34.67% − 15.87%

= 49.46% → Fair odds 2.02

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

1.64

Home xG (λ)

1.09

Away xG (λ)

2.73

Total E[goals]

1.8

League Avg Home

1.3

League Avg Away

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Vaprus vs Kuressaare

27 Oct · Each cell shows the probability of that exact scoreline. Dixon-Coles corrected (ρ = -0.13). · Upcoming

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8.1%	5.6%	3.9%	1.4%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
1	9.2%	13.2%	6.4%	2.3%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%
2	8.8%	9.6%	5.2%	1.9%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
3	4.8%	5.2%	2.9%	1.0%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%
4	2.0%	2.1%	1.2%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
5	0.7%	0.7%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Most likely High Medium Low

Derived Markets

Home Win

48.59%

Fair odds: 2.06

Market: 2.25 (44.4%)

Draw

27.63%

Fair odds: 3.62

Market: 3.50 (28.6%)

Away Win

23.78%

Fair odds: 4.21

Market: 2.55 (39.2%)

Over 0.591.95%/ Under 8.05%Fair: 1.09

Over 1.577.15%/ Under 22.85%Fair: 1.3

Over 2.551.29%/ Under 48.71%Fair: 1.95

Over 3.529.13%/ Under 70.87%Fair: 3.43

Over 4.514.01%/ Under 85.99%Fair: 7.14

BTTS Yes55%Fair: 1.82

BTTS No45%Fair: 2.22

Correct Score — Top 12

11-1

13.2%D

22-1

9.58%H

31-0

9.2%H

42-0

8.79%H

50-0

8.05%D

61-2

6.36%A

70-1

5.6%A

83-1

5.23%H

92-2

5.22%D

103-0

4.8%H

110-2

3.88%A

123-2

2.85%H

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Where the low-score correction adds value

Plain Poisson

P(0-0) = 6.5%

P(1-0) = 10.7%

P(0-1) = 7.1%

P(1-1) = 11.7%

✗ Underestimates 0-0, 1-0, 0-1

Dixon-Coles (ρ correction)

P(0-0) = 8.1% (+1.5%)

P(1-0) = 9.2% (-1.5%)

P(0-1) = 5.6% (-1.5%)

P(1-1) = 13.2% (+1.5%)

✓ Fixes low-score underestimation

💡 Why does this matter? Draws in football are dominated by 0-0 and 1-1. Plain Poisson underprices these by 15–20%. Dixon-Coles corrects this, generating better ROI on draw markets.

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Poisson/Dixon-Coles model — xG computed only from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	43	17	39.53%	−$124.10	-28.86%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	35	25	71.43%	+$58.50	+16.71%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	18	10	55.56%	−$22.10	-12.28%
DC Draw (>28%)	13	1	7.69%	−$94.50	-72.69%
DC Over 2.5 Value	30	20	66.67%	+$82.70	+27.57%
DC BTTS Value	8	6	75%	+$20.90	+26.13%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Dixon-Coles bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	43	−$124.10	-28.86%	−$33.90	-100%	−$63.67	-13.8%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	35	+$58.50	+16.71%	+$5.61	+5.1%	+$59.63	+16.57%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	18	−$22.10	-12.28%	−$2.60	-100%	−$22.21	-12.51%
DC Draw (>28%)	13	−$94.50	-72.69%	$0.00	0%	−$95.76	-70.83%
DC Over 2.5 Value	30	+$82.70	+27.57%	+$37.07	+13.81%	+$85.64	+27.96%
DC BTTS Value	8	+$20.90	+26.13%	−$7.99	-78.95%	+$14.95	+17.38%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

Team	Att (H)	Def (H)	Att (A)	Def (A)	H GP	A GP
FCI Levadia	1.67	0.41	1.81	0.49	17	17
Flora	1.18	1	1.27	0.88	17	17
Nõmme Kalju	1.11	0.86	1.06	0.52	17	16
Nõmme United	1.18	1.58	0.86	1.34	17	17
Paide	0.83	0.77	1.31	0.75	16	17
Laagri	0.93	0.94	0.91	0.97	18	16
Tammeka	0.9	0.87	0.94	1.11	16	18
Vaprus	0.97	1.25	0.77	1.34	16	17
Kuressaare	0.65	1.13	0.67	0.94	17	16
Trans	0.56	1.22	0.41	1.6	17	17

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:: Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:: P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:: Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:: Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:: Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1FCI Levadia

1732

2Paide

1590

3Flora

1523

4Tammeka

1505

5Laagri

1504

6Nõmme Kalju

1504

7Kuressaare

1446

8Nõmme United

1429

9Vaprus

1427

10Trans

1340

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo Diff	P(Higher wins)	Fair Odds	Typical Matchup
0	50.0%	2.00	Evenly matched
50	57.1%	1.75	Mid vs mid-lower
100	64.0%	1.56	Top-8 vs bottom-8
150	70.3%	1.42	Top-4 vs relegation
200	76.0%	1.32	Leader vs bottom half
250	80.8%	1.24	Leader vs bottom 3
300	84.9%	1.18	FCI Levadia vs Trans
393 (current)	90.6%	1.10	FCI Levadia vs Trans

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

FCI LevadiaPaideFloraTammekaLaagriNõmme Kalju

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#	Team	Elo	Peak	Δ	GP	W	D	L
1	FCI Levadia	1732	1732	+232	34	27	6	1
2	Paide	1590	1590	+90	33	18	6	9
3	Flora	1523	1591	+23	34	19	1	14
4	Tammeka	1505	1550	+5	34	16	2	16
5	Laagri	1504	1530	+4	34	15	2	17
6	Nõmme Kalju	1504	1577	+4	33	16	6	11
7	Kuressaare	1446	1500	-54	33	10	5	18
8	Nõmme United	1429	1501	-71	34	12	1	21
9	Vaprus	1427	1513	-73	33	10	6	17
10	Trans	1340	1500	-160	34	5	5	24

Elo Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	61	16	26%	−$5.10	-0.84%
Elo Favourite	70	48	69%	+$210.00	+30%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	24	18	75%	+$26.00	+10.83%
Elo Away Pick (>50%)	4	2	50%	−$14.30	-35.75%
Elo Draw (>28%)	16	2	13%	−$86.10	-53.81%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	61	−$5.10	-0.84%	−$34.14	-64.99%	+$116.04	+17.57%
Elo Favourite	70	+$210.00	+30%	+$307.50	+38.33%	+$158.55	+22.97%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	24	+$26.00	+10.83%	−$6.17	-8.72%	+$28.49	+11.48%
Elo Away Pick (>50%)	4	−$14.30	-35.75%	$0.00	0%	−$13.80	-33.41%
Elo Draw (>28%)	16	−$86.10	-53.81%	$0.00	0%	−$83.58	-51.58%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:: Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:: E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:: R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:: Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:: Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

Upcoming Fixtures — Value Identified by Each Model Independently

Min EV threshold2%

Show models

0Value bets found

0Multi-model consensus

+0%Avg EV found

Consensus across 3 models · Odds: H 2.25 · D 3.50 · A 2.55

Home Win

43.2%

Mkt implied: 44.4%

EV -1.2%

Draw

27.5%

Mkt implied: 28.6%

EV -1.1%

Away Win

29.3%

Mkt implied: 39.2%

EV -9.9%

PPG: H 41% D 26% A 33%Dixon-Coles: H 49% D 28% A 24%Elo: H 40% D 28% A 31%

Consensus across 0 model · Odds: H 0.00 · A 0.00

Home Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Away Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

🔒

Meistriliiga Estonia Prediction Models

Flat Betting Model

Odds Range Filter

Market ROI Summary

Staking Plan Comparison

By Team Bets

PPG Model

Odds Range Filter

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

PPG Ratings — All Teams

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Worked Example — Trans vs Nõmme United

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Vaprus vs Kuressaare

Derived Markets

Correct Score — Top 12

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Team Attack & Defense Strength

How Poisson Predictions Work

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

Elo → Win Probability Table

Elo Rating History — Top 6

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Elo Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

How Elo Ratings Work

Value Scanner

Upcoming Fixtures — Value Identified by Each Model Independently