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Ligue 1 Tunisia Prediction Models

2026/2027

Flat Betting Model

Matches w/ Odds

$10

Stake Per Bet

+28.21%

Best: Under 2.5

-65.79%

Worst: Away Underdog

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for Ligue 1 Tunisia. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

Market	Bets	Wins	Win %	Staked	Return	P&L	ROI	Best Str.	Worst Str.
Home Bet	28	15	53.57%	$280	$324.6	+$44.60	+15.93%	4	4
Draw Bet	28	9	32.14%	$280	$258.8	−$21.20	-7.57%	3	4
Away Bet	28	4	14.29%	$280	$131	−$149.00	-53.21%	2	16
Over 2.5	28	8	28.57%	$280	$213.4	−$66.60	-23.79%	2	5
Under 2.5	28	20	71.43%	$280	$359	+$79.00	+28.21%	5	2
BTTS Yes	28	11	39.29%	$280	$273.4	−$6.60	-2.36%	2	4
Home Favorite	20	12	60%	$200	$209	+$9.00	+4.5%	4	3
Away Underdog	19	1	5.26%	$190	$65	−$125.00	-65.79%	1	11
Favorite	28	15	53.57%	$280	$274.6	−$5.40	-1.93%	4	3
Underdog	28	4	14.29%	$280	$181	−$99.00	-35.36%	2	13

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

Market	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Home Bet	28	+$44.60	+15.93%	+$34.17	+22.39%	+$26.57	+9.25%
Draw Bet	28	−$21.20	-7.57%	−$28.32	-77.4%	−$9.38	-3.33%
Away Bet	28	−$149.00	-53.21%	$0.00	0%	−$149.30	-49.49%
Over 2.5	28	−$66.60	-23.79%	$0.00	0%	−$71.18	-24.53%
Under 2.5	28	+$79.00	+28.21%	−$1.92	-1.38%	+$70.29	+21.48%
BTTS Yes	28	−$6.60	-2.36%	−$0.93	-15.71%	−$13.60	-4.7%
Home Favorite	20	+$9.00	+4.5%	−$26.74	-32.51%	+$16.30	+8.08%
Away Underdog	19	−$125.00	-65.79%	$0.00	0%	−$142.31	-75.91%
Favorite	28	−$5.40	-1.93%	−$15.50	-31.57%	+$5.61	+1.92%
Underdog	28	−$99.00	-35.36%	$0.00	0%	−$99.95	-34.71%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

Team	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Ben Guerdane	4	4	100%	+$92.20	+230.5%
Hammam-Lif	5	1	20%	+$15.00	+30%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer	4	2	50%	+$7.20	+18%
Monastir	4	2	50%	+$5.10	+12.75%
ES Tunis	1	1	100%	+$1.20	+12%
Club Africain	3	2	66.67%	−$1.10	-3.67%
Etoile du Sahel	2	1	50%	−$1.50	-7.5%
CS Sfaxien	4	2	50%	−$6.30	-15.75%
Zarzis	3	1	33.33%	−$12.70	-42.33%
Stade Tunisien	4	1	25%	−$19.50	-48.75%
Marsa	4	1	25%	−$21.00	-52.5%
Bizertin	4	1	25%	−$23.00	-57.5%
Hammam-Sousse	5	0	0%	−$50.00	-100%
JS Omrane	3	0	0%	−$30.00	-100%
Olympique Béja	4	0	0%	−$40.00	-100%
Métlaoui	2	0	0%	−$20.00	-100%

PPG Model

Teams

1.41

League Avg PPG

1.08

Home Factor

λ=0.85

WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for Ligue 1 Tunisia. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	23	11	47.83%	−$27.40	-11.91%
PPG Home Pick	13	8	61.54%	+$6.60	+5.08%
PPG Away Pick	10	3	30%	−$34.00	-34%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	24	11	45.83%	−$37.40	-15.58%
PPG Value (fair < market)	25	11	44%	+$18.00	+7.2%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:: Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:: Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:: Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:: Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:: Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	23	−$27.40	-11.91%	−$19.73	-63.24%	−$4.87	-1.98%
PPG Home Pick	13	+$6.60	+5.08%	−$6.80	-11.15%	+$1.57	+1.33%
PPG Away Pick	10	−$34.00	-34%	−$0.89	-100%	−$29.62	-24.58%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	24	−$37.40	-15.58%	−$19.33	-72.83%	−$12.90	-5.06%
PPG Value (fair < market)	25	+$18.00	+7.2%	−$15.14	-21.58%	+$21.37	+8.18%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds	Result	✓
23 Oct	Marsa vs Hammam-Lif	Marsa	63.28%	1.58	1 – 1	✗
23 Oct	Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien	Ben Guerdane	51.34%	1.95	1 – 0	✓
23 Oct	Bizertin vs Hammam-Sousse	Bizertin	94.92%	1.05	3 – 1	✓
23 Oct	JS Omrane vs Olympique Béja	JS Omrane	83.6%	1.2	0 – 0	✗
18 Oct	Olympique Béja vs Etoile du Sahel	Etoile du Sahel	52.91%	1.89	1 – 2	✓

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds
17 Sept	Stade Tunisien vs Club Africain	Club Africain	47.3%	2.11
24 Oct	Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs Club Africain	***	0%	0
24 Oct	ES Tunis vs Monastir	🔒 Login or register for free to see predictions data.
24 Oct	Etoile du Sahel vs CS Sfaxien
24 Oct	Métlaoui vs Zarzis

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

Team	PPG ↓	H-PPG	A-PPG	WPPG	vs Avg
1Ben Guerdane	2.43	2.5	2.33	2.5	+1.02
2ES Tunis	2.4	3	1.5	2.5	+0.99
3Club Africain	2.25	3	1.5	2.06	+0.84
4Monastir	2	2.33	1.67	2.08	+0.59
5Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer	1.83	3	0.67	1.68	+0.42
6Bizertin	1.83	2	1.5	1.77	+0.42
7CS Sfaxien	1.6	3	0.67	1.52	+0.19
8JS Omrane	1.43	2	0.67	1.38	+0.02
9Stade Tunisien	1.4	1	1.5	1.41	-0.01
10Marsa	1.29	2	0.33	1.45	-0.12
11Zarzis	1.2	2	0	1.23	-0.21
12Etoile du Sahel	1.17	1.33	1	1.25	-0.24
13Hammam-Lif	0.71	0.33	1	0.89	-0.70
14Métlaoui	0.5	1	0	0.44	-0.91
15Olympique Béja	0.43	0.33	0.5	0.47	-0.98
16Hammam-Sousse	0.14	0.33	0	0.08	-1.27

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

Club Africain

PPG: 2.25WPPG: 2.06Gap: ↓ 0.19

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Hammam-Lif

PPG: 0.71WPPG: 0.89Gap: ↑ 0.18

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Marsa

PPG: 1.29WPPG: 1.45Gap: ↑ 0.16

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

PPG: 1.83WPPG: 1.68Gap: ↓ 0.15

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

ES Tunis

PPG: 2.4WPPG: 2.5Gap: ↑ 0.10

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Worked Example — Marsa vs Hammam-Lif

P(Marsa) = 1.33 / (1.33+0.67) × 1.08

= 0.665 × 1.08 = 63.28% → Fair odds 1.58

P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)

= 13.5% → Fair odds 7.41

P(Hammam-Lif) = 1 − 63.28% − 13.5%

= 23.22% → Fair odds 4.31

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

1.1

Home xG (λ)

0.25

Away xG (λ)

1.35

Total E[goals]

1.21

League Avg Home

0.77

League Avg Away

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs Club Africain

23 Oct · Each cell shows the probability of that exact scoreline. Dixon-Coles corrected (ρ = -0.13). · Upcoming

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	26.9%	5.6%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1	27.6%	8.1%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	15.7%	3.9%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	5.8%	1.4%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	1.6%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Most likely High Medium Low

Derived Markets

Home Win

57.13%

Fair odds: 1.75

Draw

35.42%

Fair odds: 2.82

Away Win

7.45%

Fair odds: 13.42

Over 0.573.15%/ Under 26.85%Fair: 1.37

Over 1.540%/ Under 60%Fair: 2.5

Over 2.515.44%/ Under 84.56%Fair: 6.48

Over 3.54.81%/ Under 95.19%Fair: 20.79

Over 4.51.22%/ Under 98.78%Fair: 81.81

BTTS Yes15.68%Fair: 6.38

BTTS No84.32%Fair: 1.19

Correct Score — Top 12

11-0

27.59%H

20-0

26.85%D

32-0

15.69%H

41-1

8.06%D

53-0

5.75%H

60-1

5.56%A

72-1

3.92%H

84-0

1.58%H

93-1

1.44%H

101-2

0.89%A

110-2

0.81%A

122-2

0.49%D

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Where the low-score correction adds value

Plain Poisson

P(0-0) = 25.9%

P(1-0) = 28.5%

P(0-1) = 6.5%

P(1-1) = 7.1%

✗ Underestimates 0-0, 1-0, 0-1

Dixon-Coles (ρ correction)

P(0-0) = 26.9% (+0.9%)

P(1-0) = 27.6% (-0.9%)

P(0-1) = 5.6% (-0.9%)

P(1-1) = 8.1% (+0.9%)

✓ Fixes low-score underestimation

💡 Why does this matter? Draws in football are dominated by 0-0 and 1-1. Plain Poisson underprices these by 15–20%. Dixon-Coles corrects this, generating better ROI on draw markets.

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Poisson/Dixon-Coles model — xG computed only from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	16	6	37.5%	$0.00	0%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	5	2	40%	−$9.80	-19.6%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	2	2	100%	+$27.50	+137.5%
DC Draw (>28%)	10	3	30%	−$16.50	-16.5%
DC Over 2.5 Value	5	1	20%	−$25.00	-50%
DC BTTS Value	5	2	40%	+$3.20	+6.4%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Dixon-Coles bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	16	$0.00	0%	−$26.39	-67.44%	+$37.12	+19.96%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	5	−$9.80	-19.6%	$0.00	0%	−$19.92	-47.08%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	2	+$27.50	+137.5%	$0.00	0%	+$23.40	+133.03%
DC Draw (>28%)	10	−$16.50	-16.5%	$0.00	0%	−$11.31	-11.63%
DC Over 2.5 Value	5	−$25.00	-50%	$0.00	0%	−$20.09	-41.24%
DC BTTS Value	5	+$3.20	+6.4%	$0.00	0%	−$0.64	-1.12%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

Team	Att (H)	Def (H)	Att (A)	Def (A)	H GP	A GP
ES Tunis	2.2	1.73	1.3	1.24	3	2
Ben Guerdane	1.03	0.65	3.03	1.1	4	3
Stade Tunisien	0.83	1.3	1.95	1.03	1	4
Monastir	1.65	1.73	0.87	0.28	3	3
CS Sfaxien	1.65	0.65	0.87	0.83	2	3
Etoile du Sahel	0.83	1.3	1.73	1.38	3	3
Club Africain	0.83	0	1.3	0.83	2	2
Bizertin	1.03	0.65	0.65	0.83	4	2
Zarzis	1.1	0.87	0.65	1.24	3	2
JS Omrane	0.83	0.32	0.87	1.1	4	3
Marsa	1.03	0.32	0.43	0.83	4	3
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer	1.1	0	0.43	0.55	3	3
Olympique Béja	0.83	2.16	0.65	1.03	3	4
Métlaoui	0.55	1.3	0.43	1.65	3	3
Hammam-Lif	0.28	1.3	0.65	0.62	3	4
Hammam-Sousse	0.28	2.16	0.32	1.45	3	4

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:: Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:: P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:: Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:: Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:: Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1Ben Guerdane

1569

2Monastir

1547

3ES Tunis

1539

4Club Africain

1528

5Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

1527

6CS Sfaxien

1520

7Bizertin

1519

8Stade Tunisien

1509

9JS Omrane

1507

10Marsa

1498

11Zarzis

1483

12Etoile du Sahel

1481

13Hammam-Lif

1466

14Olympique Béja

1450

15Métlaoui

1441

16Hammam-Sousse

1417

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo Diff	P(Higher wins)	Fair Odds	Typical Matchup
0	50.0%	2.00	Evenly matched
50	57.1%	1.75	Mid vs mid-lower
100	64.0%	1.56	Top-8 vs bottom-8
150	70.3%	1.42	Top-4 vs relegation
200	76.0%	1.32	Leader vs bottom half
250	80.8%	1.24	Leader vs bottom 3
300	84.9%	1.18	Ben Guerdane vs Hammam-Sousse

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

Ben GuerdaneMonastirES TunisClub AfricainProgrès Sakiet EddaïerCS Sfaxien

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#	Team	Elo	Peak	Δ	GP	W	D	L
1	Ben Guerdane	1569	1569	+69	7	5	2	0
2	Monastir	1547	1547	+47	6	3	3	0
3	ES Tunis	1539	1539	+39	5	4	0	1
4	Club Africain	1528	1542	+28	4	3	0	1
5	Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer	1527	1540	+27	6	3	2	1
6	CS Sfaxien	1520	1533	+20	5	2	2	1
7	Bizertin	1519	1531	+19	6	3	2	1
8	Stade Tunisien	1509	1520	+9	5	2	1	2
9	JS Omrane	1507	1516	+7	7	2	4	1
10	Marsa	1498	1502	-2	7	2	3	2
11	Zarzis	1483	1513	-17	5	2	0	3
12	Etoile du Sahel	1481	1500	-19	6	2	1	3
13	Hammam-Lif	1466	1500	-34	7	1	2	4
14	Olympique Béja	1450	1500	-50	7	0	3	4
15	Métlaoui	1441	1500	-59	6	1	0	5
16	Hammam-Sousse	1417	1500	-83	7	0	1	6

Elo Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	18	4	22%	−$1.00	-0.56%
Elo Favourite	21	12	57%	+$63.70	+30.33%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	1	1	100%	+$7.00	+70%
Elo Draw (>28%)	4	2	50%	+$14.50	+36.25%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	18	−$1.00	-0.56%	+$5.22	+147.04%	−$25.38	-11.42%
Elo Favourite	21	+$63.70	+30.33%	+$47.23	+23.35%	+$25.57	+13.19%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	1	+$7.00	+70%	$0.00	0%	+$7.00	+70%
Elo Draw (>28%)	4	+$14.50	+36.25%	$0.00	0%	+$15.15	+38.26%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:: Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:: E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:: R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:: Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:: Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

No upcoming matches with odds available. Please check back later.

Ligue 1 Tunisia Prediction Models

Flat Betting Model

Odds Range Filter

Market ROI Summary

Staking Plan Comparison

By Team Bets

PPG Model

Odds Range Filter

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

PPG Ratings — All Teams

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Worked Example — Marsa vs Hammam-Lif

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs Club Africain

Derived Markets

Correct Score — Top 12

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Team Attack & Defense Strength

How Poisson Predictions Work

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

Elo → Win Probability Table

Elo Rating History — Top 6

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Elo Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

How Elo Ratings Work

Value Scanner