Home/Sports/Predictions/Football/Ligue 1 Algeria

Ligue 1 Algeria Prediction Models

2026/2027

Flat Betting Model

Matches w/ Odds

$10

Stake Per Bet

+67.82%

Best: Away Underdog

-33.53%

Worst: Over 2.5

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for Ligue 1 Algeria. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

Market	Bets	Wins	Win %	Staked	Return	P&L	ROI	Best Str.	Worst Str.
Home Bet	30	11	36.67%	$300	$225.3	−$74.70	-24.9%	3	7
Draw Bet	30	9	30%	$300	$260.3	−$39.70	-13.23%	3	5
Away Bet	30	10	33.33%	$300	$362.3	+$62.30	+20.77%	2	6
Over 2.5	30	11	36.67%	$300	$199.4	−$100.60	-33.53%	2	5
Under 2.5	30	19	63.33%	$300	$453.5	+$153.50	+51.17%	5	2
BTTS Yes	30	13	43.33%	$300	$312.7	+$12.70	+4.23%	3	3
Home Favorite	21	9	42.86%	$210	$160.3	−$49.70	-23.67%	3	4
Away Underdog	17	6	35.29%	$170	$285.3	+$115.30	+67.82%	2	6
Favorite	30	13	43.33%	$300	$237.3	−$62.70	-20.9%	3	4
Underdog	30	8	26.67%	$300	$350.3	+$50.30	+16.77%	2	10

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

Market	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Home Bet	30	−$74.70	-24.9%	−$39.34	-89.92%	−$51.12	-14.72%
Draw Bet	30	−$39.70	-13.23%	−$2.68	-100%	−$25.33	-8.4%
Away Bet	30	+$62.30	+20.77%	+$27.15	+41.54%	+$22.24	+8.06%
Over 2.5	30	−$100.60	-33.53%	$0.00	0%	−$120.22	-39.27%
Under 2.5	30	+$153.50	+51.17%	+$163.75	+36.95%	+$141.87	+45.09%
BTTS Yes	30	+$12.70	+4.23%	+$1.42	+9.01%	+$9.29	+3.18%
Home Favorite	21	−$49.70	-23.67%	−$7.22	-89.8%	−$40.35	-18.13%
Away Underdog	17	+$115.30	+67.82%	+$23.53	+27.87%	+$70.07	+43.66%
Favorite	30	−$62.70	-20.9%	−$5.02	-55.04%	−$49.58	-15.66%
Underdog	30	+$50.30	+16.77%	+$16.61	+14.92%	+$18.59	+6.22%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

Team	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Témouchent	4	2	50%	+$72.00	+180%
MC Oran	4	3	75%	+$50.50	+126.25%
JS El Biar	4	2	50%	+$50.50	+126.25%
USM Alger	3	2	66.67%	+$19.70	+65.67%
MB Rouisset	4	2	50%	+$17.30	+43.25%
Belouizdad	3	2	66.67%	+$6.80	+22.67%
Olympique Akbou	3	2	66.67%	+$6.30	+21%
MC Alger	3	2	66.67%	+$0.10	+0.33%
Kabylie	4	2	50%	−$3.80	-9.5%
ES Sétif	3	1	33.33%	−$7.30	-24.33%
Khenchela	4	1	25%	−$14.50	-36.25%
US Biskra	5	0	0%	−$50.00	-100%
ASO Chlef	4	0	0%	−$40.00	-100%
CS Constantine	4	0	0%	−$40.00	-100%
Ben Aknoun	3	0	0%	−$30.00	-100%
Saoura	5	0	0%	−$50.00	-100%

PPG Model

Teams

1.38

League Avg PPG

1.08

Home Factor

λ=0.85

WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for Ligue 1 Algeria. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	28	12	42.86%	−$9.30	-3.32%
PPG Home Pick	9	5	55.56%	−$10.10	-11.22%
PPG Away Pick	19	7	36.84%	+$0.80	+0.42%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	28	12	42.86%	−$9.30	-3.32%
PPG Value (fair < market)	28	10	35.71%	+$9.90	+3.54%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:: Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:: Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:: Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:: Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:: Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	28	−$9.30	-3.32%	−$15.83	-34.53%	−$15.05	-4.97%
PPG Home Pick	9	−$10.10	-11.22%	+$0.71	+79.78%	−$7.37	-7.04%
PPG Away Pick	19	+$0.80	+0.42%	+$1.49	+5%	−$5.61	-3.05%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	28	−$9.30	-3.32%	−$15.83	-34.53%	−$15.05	-4.97%
PPG Value (fair < market)	28	+$9.90	+3.54%	+$28.00	+251.8%	−$40.19	-12.29%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds	Result	✓
27 Oct	US Biskra vs MC Alger	MC Alger	83.3%	1.2	0 – 1	✓
24 Oct	ES Sétif vs Témouchent	ES Sétif	48.28%	2.07	1 – 2	✗
24 Oct	Saoura vs Ben Aknoun	Ben Aknoun	66.28%	1.51	0 – 0	✗
24 Oct	USM Alger vs Belouizdad	Belouizdad	40.45%	2.47	2 – 2	✗
24 Oct	ASO Chlef vs MB Rouisset	MB Rouisset	73.06%	1.37	1 – 1	✗

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds
22 Sept	MC Alger vs MC Oran	MC Alger	44.73%	2.24
06 Oct	Kabylie vs MC Alger	***	0%	0
06 Oct	Saoura vs Khenchela	🔒 Login or register for free to see predictions data.
16 Oct	Ben Aknoun vs USM Alger
16 Oct	Belouizdad vs Olympique Akbou

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

Team	PPG ↓	H-PPG	A-PPG	WPPG	vs Avg
1MC Alger	2.5	3	2	2.47	+1.12
2Belouizdad	2.33	3	2	2.3	+0.95
3MC Oran	2.33	2.33	2.33	2.22	+0.95
4Kabylie	2.17	3	1.33	2.27	+0.79
5MB Rouisset	1.86	3	1	1.96	+0.48
6USM Alger	1.83	2.33	1.33	1.86	+0.45
7Olympique Akbou	1.67	2	1.33	1.83	+0.29
8Ben Aknoun	1.17	1	1.25	1.01	-0.21
9JS El Biar	1.14	1	1.33	1.27	-0.24
10Témouchent	1.14	1.25	1	1.28	-0.24
11CS Constantine	1	2	0.25	0.72	-0.38
12ES Sétif	0.83	1	0.5	0.87	-0.55
13Khenchela	0.83	1.25	0	0.75	-0.55
14ASO Chlef	0.57	0.75	0.33	0.65	-0.81
15Saoura	0.5	1	0.25	0.51	-0.88
16US Biskra	0.29	0.25	0.33	0.22	-1.09

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

CS Constantine

PPG: 1WPPG: 0.72Gap: ↓ 0.28

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Olympique Akbou

PPG: 1.67WPPG: 1.83Gap: ↑ 0.16

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Ben Aknoun

PPG: 1.17WPPG: 1.01Gap: ↓ 0.16

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Témouchent

PPG: 1.14WPPG: 1.28Gap: ↑ 0.14

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

JS El Biar

PPG: 1.14WPPG: 1.27Gap: ↑ 0.13

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Worked Example — US Biskra vs MC Alger

P(US Biskra) = 0.33 / (0.33+2.33) × 1.08

= 0.124 × 1.08 = 12.91% → Fair odds 7.75

P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)

= 3.8% → Fair odds 26.35

P(MC Alger) = 1 − 12.91% − 3.8%

= 83.3% → Fair odds 1.2

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

0.25

Home xG (λ)

0.25

Away xG (λ)

0.50

Total E[goals]

1.34

League Avg Home

0.84

League Avg Away

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — MC Alger vs MC Oran

21 Sept · Each cell shows the probability of that exact scoreline. Dixon-Coles corrected (ρ = -0.13). · Upcoming

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	61.1%	14.7%	1.9%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1	14.7%	4.3%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	1.9%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Most likely High Medium Low

Derived Markets

Home Win

17.26%

Fair odds: 5.8

Market: 1.60 (62.5%)

Draw

65.49%

Fair odds: 1.53

Market: 3.35 (29.9%)

Away Win

17.26%

Fair odds: 5.8

Market: 6.41 (15.6%)

Over 0.538.85%/ Under 61.15%Fair: 2.57

Over 1.59.51%/ Under 90.49%Fair: 10.51

Over 2.51.44%/ Under 98.56%Fair: 69.5

Over 3.50.18%/ Under 99.82%Fair: 570.91

Over 4.50.02%/ Under 99.98%Fair: 999

BTTS Yes5.39%Fair: 18.57

BTTS No94.61%Fair: 1.06

Correct Score — Top 12

10-0

61.15%D

20-1

14.67%A

31-0

14.67%H

41-1

4.28%D

50-2

1.9%A

62-0

1.9%H

71-2

0.47%A

82-1

0.47%H

90-3

0.16%A

103-0

0.16%H

112-2

0.06%D

121-3

0.04%A

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Where the low-score correction adds value

Plain Poisson

P(0-0) = 60.6%

P(1-0) = 15.2%

P(0-1) = 15.2%

P(1-1) = 3.8%

✗ Underestimates 0-0, 1-0, 0-1

Dixon-Coles (ρ correction)

P(0-0) = 61.1% (+0.5%)

P(1-0) = 14.7% (-0.5%)

P(0-1) = 14.7% (-0.5%)

P(1-1) = 4.3% (+0.5%)

✓ Fixes low-score underestimation

💡 Why does this matter? Draws in football are dominated by 0-0 and 1-1. Plain Poisson underprices these by 15–20%. Dixon-Coles corrects this, generating better ROI on draw markets.

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Poisson/Dixon-Coles model — xG computed only from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	11	2	18.18%	−$73.70	-67%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	8	3	37.5%	−$31.50	-39.37%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	2	1	50%	−$2.70	-13.5%
DC Draw (>28%)	5	2	40%	+$9.00	+18%
DC Over 2.5 Value	3	3	100%	+$23.80	+79.33%
DC BTTS Value	3	2	66.67%	+$17.60	+58.67%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Dixon-Coles bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	11	−$73.70	-67%	$0.00	0%	−$87.64	-67%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	8	−$31.50	-39.37%	−$4.69	-100%	−$30.25	-35.75%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	2	−$2.70	-13.5%	$0.00	0%	+$0.89	+5.42%
DC Draw (>28%)	5	+$9.00	+18%	$0.00	0%	+$8.09	+16.32%
DC Over 2.5 Value	3	+$23.80	+79.33%	$0.00	0%	+$19.83	+69.41%
DC BTTS Value	3	+$17.60	+58.67%	$0.00	0%	+$16.63	+54.88%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

Team	Att (H)	Def (H)	Att (A)	Def (A)	H GP	A GP
Belouizdad	0.75	0	2.68	1.31	2	4
JS El Biar	1.12	1.49	2.38	1.49	4	3
Kabylie	1.49	0.4	1.59	0.5	3	3
CS Constantine	2.24	1.59	0.6	2.05	3	4
Olympique Akbou	1.74	1.59	0.79	0.5	3	3
USM Alger	1.24	0.79	1.19	0.75	3	3
MC Alger	1.12	0	1.19	0.37	2	2
ES Sétif	1.31	1.49	0	0.37	4	2
Ben Aknoun	1.49	2.38	0.89	0.56	2	4
MB Rouisset	1	0	0.89	0.75	3	4
ASO Chlef	0.93	1.79	0.4	1.24	4	3
MC Oran	0.75	0	0.79	0	3	3
Témouchent	0.56	1.19	0.79	1	4	3
Khenchela	0.56	1.19	0	0.75	4	2
US Biskra	0	0.89	1.19	2.49	4	3
Saoura	0	0	0	1.12	2	4

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:: Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:: P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:: Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:: Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:: Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1Belouizdad

1563

2MC Oran

1553

3MC Alger

1541

4Kabylie

1540

5MB Rouisset

1531

6USM Alger

1530

7Olympique Akbou

1514

8Ben Aknoun

1500

9JS El Biar

1491

10Témouchent

1484

11Khenchela

1469

12ES Sétif

1468

13CS Constantine

1466

14Saoura

1461

15ASO Chlef

1459

16US Biskra

1429

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo Diff	P(Higher wins)	Fair Odds	Typical Matchup
0	50.0%	2.00	Evenly matched
50	57.1%	1.75	Mid vs mid-lower
100	64.0%	1.56	Top-8 vs bottom-8
150	70.3%	1.42	Top-4 vs relegation
200	76.0%	1.32	Leader vs bottom half
250	80.8%	1.24	Leader vs bottom 3
300	84.9%	1.18	Belouizdad vs US Biskra

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

BelouizdadMC OranMC AlgerKabylieMB RouissetUSM Alger

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#	Team	Elo	Peak	Δ	GP	W	D	L
1	Belouizdad	1563	1563	+63	6	4	2	0
2	MC Oran	1553	1553	+53	6	4	2	0
3	MC Alger	1541	1541	+41	4	3	1	0
4	Kabylie	1540	1540	+40	6	4	1	1
5	MB Rouisset	1531	1532	+31	7	4	1	2
6	USM Alger	1530	1531	+30	6	3	2	1
7	Olympique Akbou	1514	1519	+14	6	3	1	2
8	Ben Aknoun	1500	1519	+0	6	1	4	1
9	JS El Biar	1491	1500	-9	7	2	2	3
10	Témouchent	1484	1500	-16	7	2	2	3
11	Khenchela	1469	1500	-31	6	1	2	3
12	ES Sétif	1468	1500	-32	6	1	2	3
13	CS Constantine	1466	1527	-34	7	2	1	4
14	Saoura	1461	1500	-39	6	0	3	3
15	ASO Chlef	1459	1500	-41	7	0	4	3
16	US Biskra	1429	1504	-71	7	0	2	5

Elo Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	18	4	22%	+$31.50	+17.5%
Elo Favourite	24	9	38%	−$77.40	-32.25%
Elo Draw (>28%)	14	6	43%	+$32.80	+23.43%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	18	+$31.50	+17.5%	+$6.75	+43.6%	+$4.68	+3.1%
Elo Favourite	24	−$77.40	-32.25%	−$12.18	-100%	−$62.66	-23.24%
Elo Draw (>28%)	14	+$32.80	+23.43%	+$0.68	+7.42%	+$34.05	+24.15%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:: Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:: E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:: R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:: Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:: Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

No upcoming matches with odds available. Please check back later.

Ligue 1 Algeria Prediction Models

Flat Betting Model

Odds Range Filter

Market ROI Summary

Staking Plan Comparison

By Team Bets

PPG Model

Odds Range Filter

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

PPG Ratings — All Teams

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Worked Example — US Biskra vs MC Alger

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — MC Alger vs MC Oran

Derived Markets

Correct Score — Top 12

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Team Attack & Defense Strength

How Poisson Predictions Work

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

Elo → Win Probability Table

Elo Rating History — Top 6

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Elo Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

How Elo Ratings Work

Value Scanner