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Ligi kuu Bara Tanzania Prediction Models

2026/2027

Flat Betting Model

Matches w/ Odds

$10

Stake Per Bet

+49.79%

Best: BTTS Yes

-34.5%

Worst: Favorite

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for Ligi kuu Bara Tanzania. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

Market	Bets	Wins	Win %	Staked	Return	P&L	ROI	Best Str.	Worst Str.
Home Bet	14	6	42.86%	$140	$137.7	−$2.30	-1.64%	2	3
Draw Bet	14	5	35.71%	$140	$149.8	+$9.80	+7%	1	4
Away Bet	14	3	21.43%	$140	$97.5	−$42.50	-30.36%	2	5
Over 2.5	14	8	57.14%	$140	$183.9	+$43.90	+31.36%	4	3
Under 2.5	14	6	42.86%	$140	$97.7	−$42.30	-30.21%	3	4
BTTS Yes	14	10	71.43%	$140	$209.7	+$69.70	+49.79%	6	2
Home Favorite	9	4	44.44%	$90	$67.2	−$22.80	-25.33%	1	2
Away Underdog	5	2	40%	$50	$73	+$23.00	+46%	2	3
Favorite	14	5	35.71%	$140	$91.7	−$48.30	-34.5%	2	3
Underdog	14	3	21.43%	$140	$117.5	−$22.50	-16.07%	1	5

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

Market	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Home Bet	14	−$2.30	-1.64%	−$11.14	-87.17%	+$11.48	+6.49%
Draw Bet	14	+$9.80	+7%	−$2.12	-100%	+$20.07	+14.39%
Away Bet	14	−$42.50	-30.36%	−$14.19	-100%	−$41.90	-35.77%
Over 2.5	14	+$43.90	+31.36%	−$3.87	-2.66%	+$44.82	+30.99%
Under 2.5	14	−$42.30	-30.21%	$0.00	0%	−$49.47	-32.09%
BTTS Yes	14	+$69.70	+49.79%	+$64.38	+26.59%	+$62.26	+43.93%
Home Favorite	9	−$22.80	-25.33%	−$2.88	-100%	−$15.00	-15.18%
Away Underdog	5	+$23.00	+46%	$0.00	0%	+$35.37	+75.87%
Favorite	14	−$48.30	-34.5%	−$0.99	-100%	−$43.11	-28.71%
Underdog	14	−$22.50	-16.07%	−$14.19	-100%	−$30.95	-21.96%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

Team	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Mashujaa	2	1	50%	+$24.50	+122.5%
Simba	2	2	100%	+$17.40	+87%
Kagera Sugar	3	1	33.33%	+$11.00	+36.67%
JKT Tanzania	4	3	75%	+$14.60	+36.5%
Dodoma Jiji	3	1	33.33%	+$2.00	+6.67%
Azam	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
Coastal Union	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
Namungo	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
Tabora United	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
Pamba	3	1	33.33%	−$4.30	-14.33%
Young Africans	1	0	0%	−$10.00	-100%
Mbeya City	2	0	0%	−$20.00	-100%
Geita Gold	2	0	0%	−$20.00	-100%
Polisi Tanzania	2	0	0%	−$20.00	-100%
Fountain Gate	2	0	0%	−$20.00	-100%
Singida Black Stars	2	0	0%	−$20.00	-100%

PPG Model

Teams

1.19

League Avg PPG

1.08

Home Factor

λ=0.85

WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for Ligi kuu Bara Tanzania. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	8	4	50%	+$23.10	+28.88%
PPG Home Pick	4	2	50%	−$9.90	-24.75%
PPG Away Pick	4	2	50%	+$33.00	+82.5%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	9	4	44.44%	+$13.10	+14.56%
PPG Value (fair < market)	11	4	36.36%	+$4.70	+4.27%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:: Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:: Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:: Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:: Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:: Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	8	+$23.10	+28.88%	−$8.65	-100%	+$22.43	+21.36%
PPG Home Pick	4	−$9.90	-24.75%	$0.00	0%	−$6.46	-11.37%
PPG Away Pick	4	+$33.00	+82.5%	$0.00	0%	+$23.88	+50.56%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	9	+$13.10	+14.56%	−$12.78	-100%	+$14.78	+13.01%
PPG Value (fair < market)	11	+$4.70	+4.27%	−$6.20	-37.85%	+$13.01	+9.82%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds	Result	✓
27 Oct	Dodoma Jiji vs JKT Tanzania	JKT Tanzania	40.11%	2.49	0 – 0	✗
27 Oct	Young Africans vs Mashujaa	Mashujaa	45.57%	2.19	2 – 1	✗
24 Oct	JKT Tanzania vs Kagera Sugar	JKT Tanzania	60.37%	1.66	1 – 0	✓
24 Oct	Tabora United vs Young Africans	Tabora United	42.59%	2.35	0 – 0	✗
23 Oct	Polisi Tanzania vs Pamba	Polisi Tanzania	42.59%	2.35	1 – 1	✗

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds
24 Oct	Singida Black Stars vs Tabora United	Tabora United	55.9%	1.79
24 Oct	Simba vs Mbeya City	***	0%	0
24 Oct	Dodoma Jiji vs Young Africans	🔒 Login or register for free to see predictions data.
24 Oct	Azam vs Mashujaa
26 Oct	Geita Gold vs Fountain Gate

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

Team	PPG ↓	H-PPG	A-PPG	WPPG	vs Avg
1Simba	3	3	3	3	+1.81
2JKT Tanzania	2.5	3	2	2.37	+1.31
3Dodoma Jiji	2	1.67	3	1.92	+0.81
4Namungo	2	3	0	2.16	+0.81
5Young Africans	1.75	3	0.5	1.79	+0.56
6Mashujaa	1.5	3	0	1.26	+0.31
7Tabora United	1.33	1	1.5	1.23	+0.14
8Polisi Tanzania	1.25	2	0.5	1.16	+0.06
9Pamba	1.25	1.5	1	1.26	+0.06
10Kagera Sugar	1.25	1	1.5	1.14	+0.06
11Fountain Gate	0.67	0.5	1	0.67	-0.52
12Singida Black Stars	0.5	0	0.5	0.54	-0.69
13Geita Gold	0	0	0	0	-1.19
14Azam	0	0	0	0	-1.19
15Mbeya City	0	0	0	0	-1.19
16Coastal Union	0	0	0	0	-1.19

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

Mashujaa

PPG: 1.5WPPG: 1.26Gap: ↓ 0.24

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Namungo

PPG: 2WPPG: 2.16Gap: ↑ 0.16

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

JKT Tanzania

PPG: 2.5WPPG: 2.37Gap: ↓ 0.13

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Kagera Sugar

PPG: 1.25WPPG: 1.14Gap: ↓ 0.11

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Tabora United

PPG: 1.33WPPG: 1.23Gap: ↓ 0.10

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Worked Example — Dodoma Jiji vs JKT Tanzania

P(Dodoma Jiji) = 2.33 / (2.33+3) × 1.08

= 0.437 × 1.08 = 39.08% → Fair odds 2.56

P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)

= 20.81% → Fair odds 4.8

P(JKT Tanzania) = 1 − 39.08% − 20.81%

= 40.11% → Fair odds 2.49

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

Home xG (λ)

0.5

Away xG (λ)

3.50

Total E[goals]

1.44

League Avg Home

League Avg Away

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Simba vs Mbeya City

23 Oct · Each cell shows the probability of that exact scoreline. Dixon-Coles corrected (ρ = -0.13). · Upcoming

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	3.7%	0.9%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1	8.8%	5.3%	1.2%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	14.1%	7.0%	1.8%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	14.1%	7.0%	1.8%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	10.5%	5.3%	1.3%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5	6.3%	3.2%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	3.2%	1.6%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Most likely High Medium Low

Derived Markets

Home Win

85.7%

Fair odds: 1.17

Draw

11.11%

Fair odds: 9

Away Win

3.19%

Fair odds: 31.36

Over 0.596.27%/ Under 3.73%Fair: 1.04

Over 1.586.55%/ Under 13.45%Fair: 1.16

Over 2.566.8%/ Under 33.2%Fair: 1.5

Over 3.544.48%/ Under 55.52%Fair: 2.25

Over 4.524.94%/ Under 75.06%Fair: 4.01

BTTS Yes37.93%Fair: 2.64

BTTS No62.07%Fair: 1.61

Correct Score — Top 12

12-0

14.06%H

23-0

14.06%H

34-0

10.54%H

41-0

8.76%H

52-1

7.03%H

63-1

7.03%H

75-0

6.33%H

81-1

5.3%D

94-1

5.27%H

100-0

3.73%D

115-1

3.16%H

126-0

3.16%H

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Where the low-score correction adds value

Plain Poisson

P(0-0) = 3.0%

P(1-0) = 9.1%

P(0-1) = 1.5%

P(1-1) = 4.5%

✗ Underestimates 0-0, 1-0, 0-1

Dixon-Coles (ρ correction)

P(0-0) = 3.7% (+0.7%)

P(1-0) = 8.8% (-0.3%)

P(0-1) = 0.9% (-0.6%)

P(1-1) = 5.3% (+0.8%)

✓ Fixes low-score underestimation

💡 Why does this matter? Draws in football are dominated by 0-0 and 1-1. Plain Poisson underprices these by 15–20%. Dixon-Coles corrects this, generating better ROI on draw markets.

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

Team	Att (H)	Def (H)	Att (A)	Def (A)	H GP	A GP
Simba	2.78	1	2	0	2	1
Pamba	1.74	1.5	1	0.69	2	2
Mashujaa	1.39	1	1	2.78	2	2
Dodoma Jiji	0.46	0.33	3	0	3	1
Polisi Tanzania	1.04	0.5	1	1.04	2	2
Kagera Sugar	0.69	1	1.5	0.69	2	2
JKT Tanzania	1.04	0.5	1	0.35	2	2
Young Africans	1.04	0.5	0.5	0.69	2	2
Singida Black Stars	1	1	1	1.04	0	2
Namungo	1.04	0.5	0	0.69	2	1
Tabora United	0	0	1.5	0.69	1	2
Fountain Gate	0.69	1.5	1	0.69	2	1
Coastal Union	1	1	1	1.39	0	1
Mbeya City	0.69	3	0.5	1.39	1	2
Geita Gold	0	3	0	1.74	1	2
Azam	0	2	1	1	1	0

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:: Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:: P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:: Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:: Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:: Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1Simba

1545

2JKT Tanzania

1544

3Dodoma Jiji

1524

4Young Africans

1517

5Namungo

1514

6Tabora United

1501

7Polisi Tanzania

1500

8Pamba

1500

9Mashujaa

1500

10Kagera Sugar

1500

11Singida Black Stars

1491

12Coastal Union

1487

13Fountain Gate

1481

14Azam

1481

15Mbeya City

1458

16Geita Gold

1456

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo Diff	P(Higher wins)	Fair Odds	Typical Matchup
0	50.0%	2.00	Evenly matched
50	57.1%	1.75	Mid vs mid-lower
100	64.0%	1.56	Top-8 vs bottom-8
150	70.3%	1.42	Top-4 vs relegation
200	76.0%	1.32	Leader vs bottom half
250	80.8%	1.24	Leader vs bottom 3
300	84.9%	1.18	Simba vs Geita Gold

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

SimbaJKT TanzaniaDodoma JijiYoung AfricansNamungoTabora United

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#	Team	Elo	Peak	Δ	GP	W	D	L
1	Simba	1545	1545	+45	3	3	0	0
2	JKT Tanzania	1544	1544	+44	4	3	1	0
3	Dodoma Jiji	1524	1526	+24	4	2	2	0
4	Young Africans	1517	1517	+17	4	2	1	1
5	Namungo	1514	1514	+14	3	2	0	1
6	Tabora United	1501	1519	+1	3	1	1	1
7	Polisi Tanzania	1500	1513	+0	4	1	2	1
8	Pamba	1500	1500	+0	4	1	2	1
9	Mashujaa	1500	1526	-0	4	2	0	2
10	Kagera Sugar	1500	1516	-0	4	1	2	1
11	Singida Black Stars	1491	1500	-9	2	0	1	1
12	Coastal Union	1487	1500	-13	1	0	0	1
13	Fountain Gate	1481	1503	-19	3	0	2	1
14	Azam	1481	1500	-19	1	0	0	1
15	Mbeya City	1458	1500	-42	3	0	0	3
16	Geita Gold	1456	1500	-44	3	0	0	3

Elo Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	4	0	0%	−$40.00	-100%
Elo Favourite	7	2	29%	−$44.20	-63.14%
Elo Draw (>28%)	2	1	50%	+$9.00	+45%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	4	−$40.00	-100%	$0.00	0%	−$53.43	-100%
Elo Favourite	7	−$44.20	-63.14%	$0.00	0%	−$28.79	-48.58%
Elo Draw (>28%)	2	+$9.00	+45%	$0.00	0%	+$8.87	+44.51%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:: Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:: E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:: R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:: Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:: Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

No upcoming matches with odds available. Please check back later.

Ligi kuu Bara Tanzania Prediction Models

Flat Betting Model

Odds Range Filter

Market ROI Summary

Staking Plan Comparison

By Team Bets

PPG Model

Odds Range Filter

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

PPG Ratings — All Teams

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Worked Example — Dodoma Jiji vs JKT Tanzania

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Simba vs Mbeya City

Derived Markets

Correct Score — Top 12

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Team Attack & Defense Strength

How Poisson Predictions Work

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

Elo → Win Probability Table

Elo Rating History — Top 6

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Elo Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

How Elo Ratings Work

Value Scanner