Home/Sports/Predictions/Football/Liga I Romania

Liga I Romania Prediction Models

2026/2027

Flat Betting Model

Matches w/ Odds

$10

Stake Per Bet

+21.13%

Best: Under 2.5

-31.36%

Worst: Away Underdog

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for Liga I Romania. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

Market	Bets	Wins	Win %	Staked	Return	P&L	ROI	Best Str.	Worst Str.
Home Bet	79	39	49.37%	$790	$808.4	+$18.40	+2.33%	5	8
Draw Bet	79	20	25.32%	$790	$694.9	−$95.10	-12.04%	3	15
Away Bet	79	20	25.32%	$790	$605.5	−$184.50	-23.35%	3	12
Over 2.5	77	38	49.35%	$770	$717.8	−$52.20	-6.78%	5	5
Under 2.5	77	39	50.65%	$770	$932.7	+$162.70	+21.13%	5	5
BTTS Yes	79	39	49.37%	$790	$715.6	−$74.40	-9.42%	4	4
Home Favorite	56	31	55.36%	$560	$572.9	+$12.90	+2.3%	5	6
Away Underdog	42	6	14.29%	$420	$288.3	−$131.70	-31.36%	2	19
Favorite	79	40	50.63%	$790	$749.8	−$40.20	-5.09%	5	9
Underdog	79	19	24.05%	$790	$664.1	−$125.90	-15.94%	4	10

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

Market	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Home Bet	79	+$18.40	+2.33%	−$62.80	-34.48%	+$64.52	+8.19%
Draw Bet	79	−$95.10	-12.04%	−$26.09	-16.13%	−$76.18	-9.69%
Away Bet	79	−$184.50	-23.35%	−$6.91	-81.1%	−$164.43	-19.42%
Over 2.5	77	−$52.20	-6.78%	−$12.21	-100%	−$41.08	-5.04%
Under 2.5	77	+$162.70	+21.13%	+$85.52	+12.6%	+$158.00	+19.35%
BTTS Yes	79	−$74.40	-9.42%	−$7.46	-100%	−$70.66	-8.7%
Home Favorite	56	+$12.90	+2.3%	−$48.48	-38.38%	+$33.21	+5.98%
Away Underdog	42	−$131.70	-31.36%	−$1.89	-24.61%	−$147.44	-34.61%
Favorite	79	−$40.20	-5.09%	−$31.98	-60.76%	+$6.38	+0.79%
Underdog	79	−$125.90	-15.94%	−$18.58	-53.81%	−$67.85	-8.38%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

Team	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Petrolul 52	11	6	54.55%	+$90.40	+82.18%
FC Universitatea Cluj	10	6	60%	+$34.40	+34.4%
Rapid Bucureşti	11	7	63.64%	+$34.00	+30.91%
UTA Arad	11	5	45.45%	+$34.00	+30.91%
Universitatea Craiova	11	8	72.73%	+$14.90	+13.55%
CFR Cluj	11	5	45.45%	+$12.60	+11.45%
Dinamo Bucureşti	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
FCV Farul Constanţa	10	4	40%	−$21.90	-21.9%
Corvinul Hunedoara	10	3	30%	−$24.10	-24.1%
Argeș	11	2	18.18%	−$28.50	-25.91%
Sepsi	10	2	20%	−$33.00	-33%
FCSB	10	4	40%	−$34.70	-34.7%
Botoșani	11	3	27.27%	−$45.90	-41.73%
Voluntari	11	2	18.18%	−$50.80	-46.18%
Csikszereda	10	1	10%	−$72.50	-72.5%
Oţelul Galați	10	1	10%	−$75.00	-75%

PPG Model

Teams

1.38

League Avg PPG

1.08

Home Factor

λ=0.85

WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for Liga I Romania. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	73	38	52.05%	+$49.70	+6.81%
PPG Home Pick	36	24	66.67%	+$82.60	+22.94%
PPG Away Pick	37	14	37.84%	−$32.90	-8.89%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	78	36	46.15%	+$1.70	+0.22%
PPG Value (fair < market)	79	30	37.97%	−$80.10	-10.14%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:: Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:: Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:: Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:: Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:: Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	73	+$49.70	+6.81%	−$18.64	-20.65%	+$83.55	+10.72%
PPG Home Pick	36	+$82.60	+22.94%	−$2.25	-1.26%	+$87.45	+23.55%
PPG Away Pick	37	−$32.90	-8.89%	+$2.21	+42.34%	−$28.54	-6.98%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	78	+$1.70	+0.22%	−$0.29	-0.31%	+$19.47	+2.32%
PPG Value (fair < market)	79	−$80.10	-10.14%	−$50.33	-24.31%	−$41.20	-5.06%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds	Result	✓
26 Oct	Sepsi vs Universitatea Craiova	Universitatea Craiova	52.49%	1.9	0 – 5	✓
25 Oct	CFR Cluj vs Dinamo Bucureşti	Dinamo Bucureşti	51.88%	1.93	2 – 2	✗
25 Oct	FCV Farul Constanţa vs Oţelul Galați	FCV Farul Constanţa	55.84%	1.79	4 – 3	✓
24 Oct	FCSB vs Rapid Bucureşti	Rapid Bucureşti	45.48%	2.2	4 – 1	✗
24 Oct	Argeș vs UTA Arad	Argeș	39.53%	2.53	0 – 1	✗

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds
30 Oct	Rapid Bucureşti vs Csikszereda	Rapid Bucureşti	85.28%	1.17
31 Oct	Corvinul Hunedoara vs Argeș	***	0%	0
31 Oct	Petrolul 52 vs CFR Cluj	🔒 Login or register for free to see predictions data.
01 Nov	Oţelul Galați vs Sepsi
01 Nov	Universitatea Craiova vs Botoșani

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

Team	PPG ↓	H-PPG	A-PPG	WPPG	vs Avg
1Dinamo Bucureşti	2.31	3	1.71	2.39	+0.93
2Universitatea Craiova	2.23	2.57	1.83	2.57	+0.85
3Rapid Bucureşti	2.08	2.29	1.83	2.08	+0.70
4Petrolul 52	1.77	2.17	1.43	1.81	+0.39
5FC Universitatea Cluj	1.69	1.86	1.5	1.76	+0.31
6FCSB	1.62	2	1.17	1.78	+0.24
7FCV Farul Constanţa	1.54	2.67	0.57	1.63	+0.16
8UTA Arad	1.38	2	0.86	1.8	0.00
9CFR Cluj	1.31	1.83	0.86	1.26	-0.07
10Corvinul Hunedoara	1.23	1.57	0.83	1.09	-0.15
11Botoșani	1.08	1.83	0.43	1.01	-0.30
12Sepsi	1.08	1.33	0.86	0.87	-0.30
13Argeș	0.92	1.14	0.67	0.59	-0.46
14Oţelul Galați	0.85	1.29	0.33	0.55	-0.53
15Voluntari	0.62	1.14	0	0.42	-0.76
16Csikszereda	0.38	0.67	0.14	0.7	-1.00

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

UTA Arad

PPG: 1.38WPPG: 1.8Gap: ↑ 0.42

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Universitatea Craiova

PPG: 2.23WPPG: 2.57Gap: ↑ 0.34

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Argeș

PPG: 0.92WPPG: 0.59Gap: ↓ 0.33

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Csikszereda

PPG: 0.38WPPG: 0.7Gap: ↑ 0.32

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Oţelul Galați

PPG: 0.85WPPG: 0.55Gap: ↓ 0.30

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Worked Example — Sepsi vs Universitatea Craiova

P(Sepsi) = 1.17 / (1.17+2.17) × 1.08

= 0.350 × 1.08 = 33.06% → Fair odds 3.03

P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)

= 14.45% → Fair odds 6.92

P(Universitatea Craiova) = 1 − 33.06% − 14.45%

= 52.49% → Fair odds 1.9

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

2.28

Home xG (λ)

0.4

Away xG (λ)

2.68

Total E[goals]

1.72

League Avg Home

1.02

League Avg Away

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Rapid Bucureşti vs Csikszereda

29 Oct · Each cell shows the probability of that exact scoreline. Dixon-Coles corrected (ρ = -0.13). · Upcoming

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7.7%	1.9%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1	14.9%	7.1%	1.3%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	18.0%	7.2%	1.4%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	13.7%	5.5%	1.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	7.8%	3.1%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5	3.5%	1.4%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	1.4%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Most likely High Medium Low

Derived Markets

Home Win

79.28%

Fair odds: 1.26

Draw

16.46%

Fair odds: 6.07

Away Win

4.26%

Fair odds: 23.47

Over 0.592.26%/ Under 7.74%Fair: 1.08

Over 1.575.36%/ Under 24.64%Fair: 1.33

Over 2.549.7%/ Under 50.3%Fair: 2.01

Over 3.527.5%/ Under 72.5%Fair: 3.64

Over 4.512.63%/ Under 87.37%Fair: 7.92

BTTS Yes30.39%Fair: 3.29

BTTS No69.61%Fair: 1.44

Correct Score — Top 12

12-0

17.98%H

21-0

14.95%H

33-0

13.67%H

44-0

7.79%H

50-0

7.74%D

62-1

7.19%H

71-1

7.13%D

83-1

5.47%H

95-0

3.55%H

104-1

3.12%H

110-1

1.95%A

122-2

1.44%D

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Where the low-score correction adds value

Plain Poisson

P(0-0) = 6.9%

P(1-0) = 15.6%

P(0-1) = 2.7%

P(1-1) = 6.3%

✗ Underestimates 0-0, 1-0, 0-1

Dixon-Coles (ρ correction)

P(0-0) = 7.7% (+0.9%)

P(1-0) = 14.9% (-0.7%)

P(0-1) = 1.9% (-0.8%)

P(1-1) = 7.1% (+0.9%)

✓ Fixes low-score underestimation

💡 Why does this matter? Draws in football are dominated by 0-0 and 1-1. Plain Poisson underprices these by 15–20%. Dixon-Coles corrects this, generating better ROI on draw markets.

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Poisson/Dixon-Coles model — xG computed only from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	57	23	40.35%	−$45.40	-7.96%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	31	16	51.61%	+$0.50	+0.16%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	5	3	60%	+$13.40	+26.8%
DC Draw (>28%)	28	5	17.86%	−$118.00	-42.14%
DC Over 2.5 Value	21	15	71.43%	+$75.80	+36.1%
DC BTTS Value	8	5	62.5%	+$11.40	+14.25%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Dixon-Coles bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	57	−$45.40	-7.96%	−$49.34	-62.77%	+$27.17	+4.74%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	31	+$0.50	+0.16%	−$20.55	-58.82%	+$12.66	+3.93%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	5	+$13.40	+26.8%	$0.00	0%	+$18.91	+32.81%
DC Draw (>28%)	28	−$118.00	-42.14%	−$24.57	-100%	−$110.51	-39.98%
DC Over 2.5 Value	21	+$75.80	+36.1%	+$5.23	+2.65%	+$74.28	+34.66%
DC BTTS Value	8	+$11.40	+14.25%	−$2.83	-26.98%	+$9.26	+11.67%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

Team	Att (H)	Def (H)	Att (A)	Def (A)	H GP	A GP
Universitatea Craiova	1.83	0.28	1.63	0.68	7	6
Dinamo Bucureşti	1.84	0.49	1.4	0.5	6	7
FC Universitatea Cluj	1.33	1.68	1.47	0.78	7	6
FCV Farul Constanţa	1.55	1.31	0.7	1	6	7
Rapid Bucureşti	1	0.7	1.47	0.78	7	6
FCSB	1.25	1.4	0.82	0.87	7	6
CFR Cluj	1.16	0.98	0.98	1.16	6	7
Petrolul 52	0.68	0.49	1.54	1.16	6	7
Botoșani	0.97	0.65	0.98	1.08	6	7
UTA Arad	0.87	0.49	0.98	1.16	6	7
Oţelul Galați	0.66	1.12	1.14	1.26	7	6
Corvinul Hunedoara	0.91	1.12	0.49	0.78	7	6
Voluntari	0.66	1.4	0.82	1.84	7	6
Csikszereda	0.48	1.63	0.56	1.33	6	7
Argeș	0.33	0.7	0.65	0.87	7	6
Sepsi	0.48	1.47	0.42	0.75	6	7

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:: Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:: P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:: Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:: Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:: Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1Dinamo Bucureşti

1607

2Universitatea Craiova

1591

3Rapid Bucureşti

1573

4Petrolul 52

1539

5FCV Farul Constanţa

1532

6FC Universitatea Cluj

1525

7FCSB

1524

8UTA Arad

1513

9CFR Cluj

1494

10Corvinul Hunedoara

1481

11Botoșani

1479

12Sepsi

1478

13Argeș

1438

14Oţelul Galați

1431

15Voluntari

1400

16Csikszereda

1397

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo Diff	P(Higher wins)	Fair Odds	Typical Matchup
0	50.0%	2.00	Evenly matched
50	57.1%	1.75	Mid vs mid-lower
100	64.0%	1.56	Top-8 vs bottom-8
150	70.3%	1.42	Top-4 vs relegation
200	76.0%	1.32	Leader vs bottom half
250	80.8%	1.24	Leader vs bottom 3
300	84.9%	1.18	Dinamo Bucureşti vs Csikszereda

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

Dinamo BucureştiUniversitatea CraiovaRapid BucureştiPetrolul 52FCV Farul ConstanţaFC Universitatea Cluj

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#	Team	Elo	Peak	Δ	GP	W	D	L
1	Dinamo Bucureşti	1607	1609	+107	13	9	3	1
2	Universitatea Craiova	1591	1591	+91	13	9	2	2
3	Rapid Bucureşti	1573	1590	+73	13	8	3	2
4	Petrolul 52	1539	1540	+39	13	7	2	4
5	FCV Farul Constanţa	1532	1535	+32	13	5	5	3
6	FC Universitatea Cluj	1525	1529	+25	13	7	1	5
7	FCSB	1524	1540	+24	13	6	3	4
8	UTA Arad	1513	1513	+13	13	5	3	5
9	CFR Cluj	1494	1508	-6	13	5	2	6
10	Corvinul Hunedoara	1481	1513	-19	13	4	4	5
11	Botoșani	1479	1506	-21	13	3	5	5
12	Sepsi	1478	1520	-22	13	3	5	5
13	Argeș	1438	1532	-62	13	3	3	7
14	Oţelul Galați	1431	1515	-69	13	2	5	6
15	Voluntari	1400	1500	-100	13	2	2	9
16	Csikszereda	1397	1500	-103	13	1	2	10

Elo Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	51	17	33%	+$79.70	+15.63%
Elo Favourite	77	39	51%	+$27.30	+3.55%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	4	4	100%	+$33.50	+83.75%
Elo Draw (>28%)	29	8	28%	−$13.20	-4.55%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	51	+$79.70	+15.63%	−$33.10	-21.82%	+$177.01	+32.89%
Elo Favourite	77	+$27.30	+3.55%	−$56.35	-32.02%	+$58.16	+7.45%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	4	+$33.50	+83.75%	$0.00	0%	+$29.82	+82.35%
Elo Draw (>28%)	29	−$13.20	-4.55%	−$2.94	-1.69%	−$22.35	-7.87%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:: Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:: E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:: R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:: Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:: Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

No upcoming matches with odds available. Please check back later.

Liga I Romania Prediction Models

Flat Betting Model

Odds Range Filter

Market ROI Summary

Staking Plan Comparison

By Team Bets

PPG Model

Odds Range Filter

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

PPG Ratings — All Teams

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Worked Example — Sepsi vs Universitatea Craiova

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Rapid Bucureşti vs Csikszereda

Derived Markets

Correct Score — Top 12

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Team Attack & Defense Strength

How Poisson Predictions Work

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

Elo → Win Probability Table

Elo Rating History — Top 6

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Elo Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

How Elo Ratings Work

Value Scanner