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Liga 1 Indonesia Prediction Models

2026/2027

Flat Betting Model

Matches w/ Odds

$10

Stake Per Bet

+20.55%

Best: Home Favorite

-100%

Worst: Away Underdog

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for Liga 1 Indonesia. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

Market	Bets	Wins	Win %	Staked	Return	P&L	ROI	Best Str.	Worst Str.
Home Bet	47	25	53.19%	$470	$536.3	+$66.30	+14.11%	8	4
Draw Bet	47	12	25.53%	$470	$422.4	−$47.60	-10.13%	1	8
Away Bet	47	10	21.28%	$470	$224.6	−$245.40	-52.21%	2	14
Over 2.5	47	29	61.7%	$470	$503.4	+$33.40	+7.11%	11	5
Under 2.5	47	18	38.3%	$470	$411.4	−$58.60	-12.47%	5	11
BTTS Yes	46	28	60.87%	$460	$484.6	+$24.60	+5.35%	6	4
Home Favorite	31	21	67.74%	$310	$373.7	+$63.70	+20.55%	8	2
Away Underdog	21	0	0%	$210	$0	−$210.00	-100%	0	21
Favorite	47	29	61.7%	$470	$534.5	+$64.50	+13.72%	6	3
Underdog	47	6	12.77%	$470	$226.4	−$243.60	-51.83%	1	19

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

Market	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Home Bet	47	+$66.30	+14.11%	+$49.39	+46.71%	+$57.08	+11.55%
Draw Bet	47	−$47.60	-10.13%	−$26.39	-76.56%	−$31.66	-6.85%
Away Bet	47	−$245.40	-52.21%	−$42.66	-100%	−$169.28	-33.89%
Over 2.5	47	+$33.40	+7.11%	−$1.10	-12.51%	+$28.07	+5.54%
Under 2.5	47	−$58.60	-12.47%	−$18.84	-14.28%	−$64.61	-13.41%
BTTS Yes	46	+$24.60	+5.35%	−$8.01	-12.71%	+$19.82	+4.2%
Home Favorite	31	+$63.70	+20.55%	+$24.79	+24.17%	+$62.93	+18.82%
Away Underdog	21	−$210.00	-100%	$0.00	0%	−$198.45	-100%
Favorite	47	+$64.50	+13.72%	+$2.15	+1.03%	+$70.72	+13.77%
Underdog	47	−$243.60	-51.83%	−$1.31	-100%	−$228.84	-50.16%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

Team	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Borneo	4	3	75%	+$22.70	+56.75%
Madura United	7	4	57.14%	+$38.70	+55.29%
Persija	6	5	83.33%	+$31.20	+52%
Persita	5	2	40%	+$23.20	+46.4%
Persik Kediri	7	3	42.86%	+$5.10	+7.29%
Sidoarjo United	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
Persiku Kudus	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
Persis Solo	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
PSPS	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
Malut United	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
Adhyaksa	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
Persikad Depok FC	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
Sumsel United	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
Bali United	5	3	60%	−$3.00	-6%
Persib Bandung	7	4	57.14%	−$8.00	-11.43%
PSM Makassar	7	2	28.57%	−$8.00	-11.43%
Dewa United	6	3	50%	−$9.50	-15.83%
Persebaya Surabaya	5	2	40%	−$17.70	-35.4%
Arema	6	1	16.67%	−$27.00	-45%
Garudayaksa	5	1	20%	−$27.00	-54%
PSS Sleman	7	1	14.29%	−$46.00	-65.71%
Bhayangkara	6	1	16.67%	−$43.80	-73%
Persijap	5	0	0%	−$50.00	-100%
PSIM Yogyakarta	6	0	0%	−$60.00	-100%

PPG Model

Teams

1.35

League Avg PPG

1.08

Home Factor

λ=0.85

WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for Liga 1 Indonesia. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	33	16	48.48%	−$51.00	-15.45%
PPG Home Pick	15	10	66.67%	+$8.20	+5.47%
PPG Away Pick	18	6	33.33%	−$59.20	-32.89%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	35	16	45.71%	−$71.00	-20.29%
PPG Value (fair < market)	37	16	43.24%	−$3.00	-0.81%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:: Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:: Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:: Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:: Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:: Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	33	−$51.00	-15.45%	−$40.63	-77.54%	−$11.22	-3.15%
PPG Home Pick	15	+$8.20	+5.47%	−$29.59	-67.45%	+$15.02	+9.32%
PPG Away Pick	18	−$59.20	-32.89%	−$13.33	-100%	−$38.79	-20.27%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	35	−$71.00	-20.29%	−$42.78	-79.11%	−$27.70	-7.37%
PPG Value (fair < market)	37	−$3.00	-0.81%	−$32.78	-27.07%	+$26.03	+7.53%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds	Result	✓
27 Oct	PSS Sleman vs Borneo	Borneo	51.38%	1.95	1 – 2	✓
26 Oct	Bhayangkara vs PSM Makassar	Bhayangkara	49.55%	2.02	0 – 0	✗
26 Oct	Persebaya Surabaya vs Madura United	Madura United	44.23%	2.26	3 – 1	✗
26 Oct	Persija vs Persik Kediri	Persija	54.92%	1.82	2 – 1	✓
25 Oct	Garudayaksa vs Persib Bandung	Persib Bandung	56.16%	1.78	1 – 2	✓

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds
30 Oct	Malut United vs Bhayangkara	Malut United	39.73%	2.52
30 Oct	Persebaya Surabaya vs Persijap	***	0%	0
31 Oct	Persik Kediri vs Persita	🔒 Login or register for free to see predictions data.
31 Oct	PSM Makassar vs Madura United
31 Oct	Arema vs Bali United

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

Team	PPG ↓	H-PPG	A-PPG	WPPG	vs Avg
1PSPS	3	3	0	3	+1.65
2Sumsel United	3	3	0	3	+1.65
3Persija	2.57	3	2	2.52	+1.22
4Dewa United	2	2.33	1.75	1.82	+0.65
5Persita	2	2.5	1	2.01	+0.65
6Bali United	1.86	3	0.33	1.73	+0.51
7Madura United	1.86	2.5	1	1.61	+0.51
8Persib Bandung	1.86	2.33	1.5	1.87	+0.51
9Persebaya Surabaya	1.71	2	1.33	1.72	+0.36
10Bhayangkara	1.57	2	1	1.61	+0.22
11Borneo	1.5	1	2	1.62	+0.15
12Persik Kediri	1.43	2	1	1.38	+0.08
13Malut United	1.33	3	0.5	1.41	-0.02
14PSM Makassar	1.29	1.67	1	1.48	-0.06
15Arema	1	1.67	0.33	1.1	-0.35
16Sidoarjo United	1	1	0	1	-0.35
17Persis Solo	1	0	1	1	-0.35
18Adhyaksa	0.83	0.67	1	0.97	-0.52
19Garudayaksa	0.67	1	0.33	0.65	-0.68
20PSS Sleman	0.57	1	0.25	0.57	-0.78
21PSIM Yogyakarta	0.29	0.33	0.25	0.3	-1.06
22Persijap	0.14	0.25	0	0.22	-1.21
23Persiku Kudus	0	0	0	0	-1.35
24Persikad Depok FC	0	0	0	0	-1.35

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

Madura United

PPG: 1.86WPPG: 1.61Gap: ↓ 0.25

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

PSM Makassar

PPG: 1.29WPPG: 1.48Gap: ↑ 0.19

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Dewa United

PPG: 2WPPG: 1.82Gap: ↓ 0.18

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Adhyaksa

PPG: 0.83WPPG: 0.97Gap: ↑ 0.14

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Bali United

PPG: 1.86WPPG: 1.73Gap: ↓ 0.13

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Worked Example — PSS Sleman vs Borneo

P(PSS Sleman) = 0.67 / (0.67+1.2) × 1.08

= 0.358 × 1.08 = 33.66% → Fair odds 2.97

P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)

= 14.96% → Fair odds 6.68

P(Borneo) = 1 − 33.66% − 14.96%

= 51.38% → Fair odds 1.95

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

Home xG (λ)

Away xG (λ)

6.00

Total E[goals]

1.81

League Avg Home

1.16

League Avg Away

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Malut United vs Bhayangkara

29 Oct · Each cell shows the probability of that exact scoreline. Dixon-Coles corrected (ρ = -0.13). · Upcoming

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	0.6%	0.5%	1.2%	1.2%	0.9%	0.5%	0.3%
1	0.5%	2.7%	3.6%	3.6%	2.7%	1.6%	0.8%
2	1.2%	3.6%	5.4%	5.4%	4.0%	2.4%	1.2%
3	1.2%	3.6%	5.4%	5.4%	4.0%	2.4%	1.2%
4	0.9%	2.7%	4.0%	4.0%	3.0%	1.8%	0.9%
5	0.5%	1.6%	2.4%	2.4%	1.8%	1.1%	0.5%
6	0.3%	0.8%	1.2%	1.2%	0.9%	0.5%	0.3%

Most likely High Medium Low

Derived Markets

Home Win

40.8%

Fair odds: 2.45

Draw

18.4%

Fair odds: 5.43

Away Win

40.8%

Fair odds: 2.45

Over 0.599.42%/ Under 0.58%Fair: 1.01

Over 1.598.45%/ Under 1.55%Fair: 1.02

Over 2.593.37%/ Under 6.63%Fair: 1.07

Over 3.583.81%/ Under 16.19%Fair: 1.19

Over 4.569.48%/ Under 30.52%Fair: 1.44

BTTS Yes90.27%Fair: 1.11

BTTS No9.73%Fair: 10.28

Correct Score — Top 12

12-2

5.37%D

22-3

5.37%A

33-2

5.37%H

43-3

5.37%D

52-4

4.03%A

63-4

4.03%A

74-2

4.03%H

84-3

4.03%H

91-2

3.58%A

101-3

3.58%A

112-1

3.58%H

123-1

3.58%H

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Where the low-score correction adds value

Plain Poisson

P(0-0) = 0.3%

P(1-0) = 0.7%

P(0-1) = 0.7%

P(1-1) = 2.2%

✗ Underestimates 0-0, 1-0, 0-1

Dixon-Coles (ρ correction)

P(0-0) = 0.6% (+0.3%)

P(1-0) = 0.5% (-0.3%)

P(0-1) = 0.5% (-0.3%)

P(1-1) = 2.7% (+0.5%)

✓ Fixes low-score underestimation

💡 Why does this matter? Draws in football are dominated by 0-0 and 1-1. Plain Poisson underprices these by 15–20%. Dixon-Coles corrects this, generating better ROI on draw markets.

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Poisson/Dixon-Coles model — xG computed only from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	15	3	20%	−$52.80	-35.2%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	8	4	50%	−$25.40	-31.75%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	4	0	0%	−$40.00	-100%
DC Draw (>28%)	8	1	12.5%	−$41.00	-51.25%
DC Over 2.5 Value	3	1	33.33%	−$13.60	-45.33%
DC BTTS Value	2	1	50%	−$4.90	-24.5%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Dixon-Coles bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	15	−$52.80	-35.2%	−$0.66	-16.26%	−$79.43	-51.69%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	8	−$25.40	-31.75%	−$12.39	-100%	−$23.97	-25.55%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	4	−$40.00	-100%	$0.00	0%	−$36.24	-100%
DC Draw (>28%)	8	−$41.00	-51.25%	−$0.45	-100%	−$43.31	-56.9%
DC Over 2.5 Value	3	−$13.60	-45.33%	$0.00	0%	−$14.06	-46.71%
DC BTTS Value	2	−$4.90	-24.5%	$0.00	0%	−$4.05	-18.7%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

Team	Att (H)	Def (H)	Att (A)	Def (A)	H GP	A GP
PSPS	2.21	0.86	1	1	1	0
Sidoarjo United	1.66	2.59	1	1	1	0
Persis Solo	1	1	2.59	1.66	0	1
Bali United	2.35	0.65	0.86	0.92	4	3
Persija	1.38	0.65	2.01	0.55	4	3
Persita	1.24	1.29	1.29	0.83	4	2
Arema	1.29	0.86	1.44	2.03	3	3
Sumsel United	1.1	0.86	1	1	1	0
Dewa United	1.1	0.86	1.29	0.97	3	4
Madura United	1.1	0.86	1.15	1.1	4	3
Bhayangkara	0.55	0.22	2.01	1.29	4	3
Persib Bandung	1.1	0.86	1.08	0.69	3	4
Malut United	1.38	1.29	0.86	0.83	2	4
PSS Sleman	0.92	1.44	1.08	1.1	3	4
Persebaya Surabaya	0.97	0.86	0.57	0.37	4	3
PSM Makassar	1.1	1.44	0.65	0.97	3	4
Persik Kediri	0.74	0.57	0.86	0.55	3	4
Borneo	0.37	1.15	1.15	0.55	3	3
Garudayaksa	0.74	1.44	0.57	1.47	3	3
Persiku Kudus	1	1	0.86	2.21	0	1
Persikad Depok FC	1	1	0.86	1.1	0	1
Adhyaksa	0.18	0.57	0.57	1.1	3	3
PSIM Yogyakarta	0.37	2.01	0.22	0.55	3	4
Persijap	0.28	1.08	0.29	1.84	4	3

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:: Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:: P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:: Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:: Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:: Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1Persija

1566

2Persita

1539

3Dewa United

1537

4Persib Bandung

1533

5Bhayangkara

1525

6Persebaya Surabaya

1523

7Bali United

1523

8Madura United

1523

9PSPS

1513

10Sumsel United

1513

11PSM Makassar

1506

12Persik Kediri

1506

13Malut United

1505

14Persis Solo

1503

15Borneo

1501

16Sidoarjo United

1497

17Arema

1489

18Persiku Kudus

1487

19Persikad Depok FC

1487

20Adhyaksa

1469

21Garudayaksa

1458

22PSS Sleman

1448

23PSIM Yogyakarta

1434

24Persijap

1415

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo Diff	P(Higher wins)	Fair Odds	Typical Matchup
0	50.0%	2.00	Evenly matched
50	57.1%	1.75	Mid vs mid-lower
100	64.0%	1.56	Top-8 vs bottom-8
150	70.3%	1.42	Top-4 vs relegation
200	76.0%	1.32	Leader vs bottom half
250	80.8%	1.24	Leader vs bottom 3
300	84.9%	1.18	Persija vs Persijap

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

PersijaPersitaDewa UnitedPersib BandungBhayangkaraPersebaya Surabaya

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#	Team	Elo	Peak	Δ	GP	W	D	L
1	Persija	1566	1566	+66	7	6	0	1
2	Persita	1539	1543	+39	6	3	3	0
3	Dewa United	1537	1554	+37	7	4	2	1
4	Persib Bandung	1533	1533	+33	7	4	1	2
5	Bhayangkara	1525	1529	+25	7	2	5	0
6	Persebaya Surabaya	1523	1529	+23	7	3	3	1
7	Bali United	1523	1526	+23	7	4	1	2
8	Madura United	1523	1542	+23	7	4	1	2
9	PSPS	1513	1513	+13	1	1	0	0
10	Sumsel United	1513	1513	+13	1	1	0	0
11	PSM Makassar	1506	1506	+6	7	2	3	2
12	Persik Kediri	1506	1519	+6	7	3	1	3
13	Malut United	1505	1506	+5	6	2	2	2
14	Persis Solo	1503	1503	+3	1	0	1	0
15	Borneo	1501	1501	+1	6	3	0	3
16	Sidoarjo United	1497	1500	-3	1	0	1	0
17	Arema	1489	1502	-11	6	1	3	2
18	Persiku Kudus	1487	1500	-13	1	0	0	1
19	Persikad Depok FC	1487	1500	-13	1	0	0	1
20	Adhyaksa	1469	1500	-31	6	1	2	3
21	Garudayaksa	1458	1500	-42	6	1	1	4
22	PSS Sleman	1448	1500	-52	7	1	1	5
23	PSIM Yogyakarta	1434	1500	-66	7	0	2	5
24	Persijap	1415	1500	-85	7	0	1	6

Elo Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	24	4	17%	−$87.80	-36.58%
Elo Favourite	32	20	63%	+$106.10	+33.16%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	2	2	100%	+$7.60	+38%
Elo Draw (>28%)	14	2	14%	−$71.00	-50.71%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	24	−$87.80	-36.58%	−$2.80	-100%	−$64.52	-29.66%
Elo Favourite	32	+$106.10	+33.16%	+$98.57	+30.86%	+$79.37	+23.54%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	2	+$7.60	+38%	$0.00	0%	+$8.19	+33.83%
Elo Draw (>28%)	14	−$71.00	-50.71%	$0.00	0%	−$71.85	-51.18%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:: Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:: E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:: R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:: Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:: Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

Upcoming Fixtures — Value Identified by Each Model Independently

Min EV threshold2%

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0Value bets found

0Multi-model consensus

+0%Avg EV found

Consensus across 3 models · Odds: H 1.20 · D 5.35 · A 11.20

Home Win

79.6%

Mkt implied: 83.3%

EV -3.8%

Draw

12.1%

Mkt implied: 18.7%

EV -6.6%

Away Win

8.4%

Mkt implied: 8.9%

EV -0.6%

PPG: H 87% D 12% A 2%Dixon-Coles: H 91% D 8% A 1%Elo: H 61% D 17% A 22%

Liga 1 Indonesia Prediction Models

Flat Betting Model

Odds Range Filter

Market ROI Summary

Staking Plan Comparison

By Team Bets

PPG Model

Odds Range Filter

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

PPG Ratings — All Teams

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Worked Example — PSS Sleman vs Borneo

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Malut United vs Bhayangkara

Derived Markets

Correct Score — Top 12

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Team Attack & Defense Strength

How Poisson Predictions Work

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

Elo → Win Probability Table

Elo Rating History — Top 6

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Elo Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

How Elo Ratings Work

Value Scanner

Upcoming Fixtures — Value Identified by Each Model Independently