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La Liga Spain Prediction Models

2026/2027

Flat Betting Model

100
Matches w/ Odds
$10
Stake Per Bet
+6.81%
Best: Under 2.5
-33.27%
Worst: Away Underdog

Odds Range Filter

1.0
10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for La Liga Spain. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

MarketBetsWinsWin %StakedReturnP&LROIBest Str.Worst Str.Trend
Home Bet1004444%$1000$956−$44.00-4.4%57
Draw Bet1002828%$1000$994.6−$5.40-0.54%314
Away Bet1002828%$1000$800.2−$199.80-19.98%38
Over 2.51005656%$1000$1024+$24.00+2.4%54
Under 2.51004444%$1000$1068.1+$68.10+6.81%45
BTTS Yes1005858%$1000$1054.9+$54.90+5.49%53
Home Favorite693855.07%$690$700.7+$10.70+1.55%74
Away Underdog51713.73%$510$340.3−$169.70-33.27%112
Favorite1005555%$1000$1020.9+$20.90+2.09%43
Underdog1001717%$1000$735.3−$264.70-26.47%224

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

MarketBetsFlat P&LFlat ROIKelly ¼ P&LKelly ¼ ROIConf P&LConf ROIComparison
Home Bet100−$44.00-4.4%−$46.43-14.79%−$20.34-1.96%
Draw Bet100−$5.40-0.54%−$58.79-54.72%+$110.63+11.48%
Away Bet100−$199.80-19.98%−$53.20-65.67%−$99.45-9.62%
Over 2.5100+$24.00+2.4%−$42.32-31.92%+$21.80+2.1%
Under 2.5100+$68.10+6.81%−$34.27-18.92%+$90.82+8.67%
BTTS Yes100+$54.90+5.49%−$29.78-27.44%+$59.66+5.67%
Home Favorite69+$10.70+1.55%−$32.80-22.14%+$21.37+2.88%
Away Underdog51−$169.70-33.27%−$11.52-100%−$161.68-35.21%
Favorite100+$20.90+2.09%−$39.70-17.25%+$43.59+4.16%
Underdog100−$264.70-26.47%−$29.05-54.91%−$248.45-24.85%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:
Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:
Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:
Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

By Team Bets

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

TeamBetsWinsWin %P&LROI
Real Betis10660%+$109.30+109.3%
Atlético de Madrid10880%+$61.40+61.4%
Sevilla10550%+$53.00+53%
Real Madrid10880%+$28.60+28.6%
Real Sociedad10660%+$24.90+24.9%
Barcelona10990%+$13.30+13.3%
Deportivo de La Coruña10220%−$2.20-2.2%
Elche10220%−$7.70-7.7%
Osasuna10330%−$15.70-15.7%
Alavés10330%−$19.00-19%
Athletic Club10330%−$20.10-20.1%
Racing de Santander10330%−$28.90-28.9%
Levante10220%−$32.10-32.1%
Espanyol10220%−$38.50-38.5%
Villarreal10330%−$40.10-40.1%
Getafe10220%−$54.90-54.9%
Rayo Vallecano10220%−$56.50-56.5%
Celta de Vigo10220%−$59.20-59.2%
Valencia10110%−$59.40-59.4%
Málaga1000%−$100.00-100%

PPG Model

20
Teams
1.36
League Avg PPG
1.08
Home Factor
λ=0.85
WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0
10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for La Liga Spain. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

StrategyBetsWinsWin %P&LROITrend
PPG Favorite (1×2)944446.81%−$33.00-3.51%
PPG Home Pick452555.56%−$17.20-3.82%
PPG Away Pick491938.78%−$15.80-3.22%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)1004646%−$55.40-5.54%
PPG Value (fair < market)1003131%−$121.00-12.1%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:
Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:
Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:
Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:
Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:
Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

StrategyBetsFlat P&LFlat ROIKelly ¼ P&LKelly ¼ ROIConf P&LConf ROIComparison
PPG Favorite (1×2)94−$33.00-3.51%−$17.64-8.08%−$38.13-3.69%
PPG Home Pick45−$17.20-3.82%−$18.99-13.8%−$9.16-1.9%
PPG Away Pick49−$15.80-3.22%−$5.49-10.5%−$28.80-5.31%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)100−$55.40-5.54%−$30.13-14.63%−$41.77-3.84%
PPG Value (fair < market)100−$121.00-12.1%−$49.22-16.52%−$82.38-8.58%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:
Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:
Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:
Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

DateMatchPPG PickProbFair OddsResult✓
26 OctSevilla vs OsasunaSevilla50.1%22 – 0✓
25 OctBarcelona vs Real MadridBarcelona50.32%1.991 – 2✗
25 OctReal Sociedad vs LevanteReal Sociedad56.99%1.752 – 1✓
25 OctCelta de Vigo vs Real BetisReal Betis50.25%1.990 – 0✗
25 OctAthletic Club vs GetafeAthletic Club45.77%2.194 – 0✓

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

DateMatchPPG PickProbFair Odds
30 OctVillarreal vs EspanyolVillarreal52.76%1.9
31 OctLevante vs Atlético de Madrid***0%0
31 OctRayo Vallecano vs Celta de Vigo
🔒

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31 OctReal Betis vs Málaga
31 OctBarcelona vs Alavés

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

TeamPPG ↓H-PPGA-PPGWPPGvs AvgStrength
1Barcelona2.72.432.44+1.34
2Atlético de Madrid2.52.62.42.69+1.14
3Real Madrid2.431.82.44+1.04
4Real Betis22.41.61.74+0.64
5Real Sociedad1.921.82.28+0.54
6Sevilla1.71.81.61.59+0.34
7Athletic Club1.31.611.44-0.06
8Alavés1.21.670.50.87-0.16
9Villarreal1.211.331.45-0.16
10Celta de Vigo1.21.3311.44-0.16
11Racing de Santander1.12.201.17-0.26
12Deportivo de La Coruña1.11.210.84-0.26
13Osasuna1.11.60.60.97-0.26
14Rayo Vallecano11.60.40.96-0.36
15Levante11.750.50.89-0.36
16Elche10.251.51.32-0.36
17Getafe0.91.800.81-0.46
18Espanyol0.80.80.80.58-0.56
19Valencia0.60.3310.63-0.76
20Málaga0.50.60.40.53-0.86

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

Real Sociedad
PPG: 1.9WPPG: 2.28Gap: ↑ 0.38
Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising
Alavés
PPG: 1.2WPPG: 0.87Gap: ↓ 0.33
Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG
Elche
PPG: 1WPPG: 1.32Gap: ↑ 0.32
Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising
Barcelona
PPG: 2.7WPPG: 2.44Gap: ↓ 0.26
Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG
Deportivo de La Coruña
PPG: 1.1WPPG: 0.84Gap: ↓ 0.26
Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Worked Example — Sevilla vs Osasuna

Sevilla PPG
1.56
vs
Osasuna PPG
1.22
P(Sevilla) = 1.56 / (1.56+1.22) × 1.08
= 0.561 × 1.08 = 50.1% → Fair odds 2
P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)
= 20.96% → Fair odds 4.77
P(Osasuna) = 1 − 50.1% − 20.96%
= 28.94% → Fair odds 3.46

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

1.65
Home xG (λ)
1.31
Away xG (λ)
2.96
Total E[goals]
1.68
League Avg Home
1.3
League Avg Away

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Villarreal vs Espanyol

29 Oct · Each cell shows the probability of that exact scoreline. Dixon-Coles corrected (ρ = -0.13). · Upcoming

H \ A0123456
06.7%5.3%4.5%1.9%0.6%0.2%0.0%
17.1%12.7%7.3%3.2%1.1%0.3%0.1%
27.1%9.3%6.1%2.6%0.9%0.2%0.1%
33.9%5.1%3.3%1.5%0.5%0.1%0.0%
41.6%2.1%1.4%0.6%0.2%0.1%0.0%
50.5%0.7%0.5%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%
60.1%0.2%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Most likely High Medium Low

Derived Markets

Home Win
43.91%
Fair odds: 2.28
Draw
27.07%
Fair odds: 3.69
Away Win
29.02%
Fair odds: 3.45
Over 0.593.35%/ Under 6.65%Fair: 1.07
Over 1.580.9%/ Under 19.1%Fair: 1.24
Over 2.556.69%/ Under 43.31%Fair: 1.76
Over 3.534.25%/ Under 65.75%Fair: 2.92
Over 4.517.64%/ Under 82.36%Fair: 5.67
BTTS Yes60.42%Fair: 1.66
BTTS No39.58%Fair: 2.53

Correct Score — Top 12

11-1
12.68%D
22-1
9.26%H
31-2
7.35%A
41-0
7.11%H
52-0
7.07%H
60-0
6.65%D
72-2
6.06%D
80-1
5.34%A
93-1
5.09%H
100-2
4.46%A
113-0
3.89%H
123-2
3.34%H

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Where the low-score correction adds value

Plain Poisson
P(0-0) = 5.2%
P(1-0) = 8.6%
P(0-1) = 6.8%
P(1-1) = 11.2%
✗ Underestimates 0-0, 1-0, 0-1
Dixon-Coles (ρ correction)
P(0-0) = 6.7% (+1.5%)
P(1-0) = 7.1% (-1.4%)
P(0-1) = 5.3% (-1.5%)
P(1-1) = 12.7% (+1.5%)
✓ Fixes low-score underestimation
💡 Why does this matter? Draws in football are dominated by 0-0 and 1-1. Plain Poisson underprices these by 15–20%. Dixon-Coles corrects this, generating better ROI on draw markets.

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Poisson/Dixon-Coles model — xG computed only from matches played before each bet.

StrategyBetsWinsWin %P&LROITrend
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)822631.71%−$73.70-8.99%
DC Home Pick (>50%)382463.16%+$19.50+5.13%
DC Away Pick (>50%)13969.23%+$16.10+12.38%
DC Draw (>28%)291034.48%+$42.40+14.62%
DC Over 2.5 Value392153.85%+$10.20+2.62%
DC BTTS Value291758.62%+$23.20+8%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Dixon-Coles bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

StrategyBetsFlat P&LFlat ROIKelly ¼ P&LKelly ¼ ROIConf P&LConf ROIComparison
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)82−$73.70-8.99%−$39.03-26.47%−$64.56-8.12%
DC Home Pick (>50%)38+$19.50+5.13%−$26.16-16.71%+$33.62+8.35%
DC Away Pick (>50%)13+$16.10+12.38%−$12.00-14%+$27.88+23.38%
DC Draw (>28%)29+$42.40+14.62%−$16.84-56.51%+$67.84+22.9%
DC Over 2.5 Value39+$10.20+2.62%−$11.72-31.99%+$14.08+3.43%
DC BTTS Value29+$23.20+8%−$10.23-25.45%+$24.37+8.2%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:
Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:
Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:
Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

TeamAtt (H)Def (H)Att (A)Def (A)H GPA GP
Barcelona2.10.853.120.6555
Real Madrid1.940.511.280.855
Atlético de Madrid1.310.521.330.6555
Real Sociedad0.91.141.711.2655
Sevilla0.831.11.321.0955
Levante1.581.720.380.8946
Real Betis1.181.050.960.8555
Racing de Santander1.261.190.681.9555
Villarreal1.131.061.150.7946
Alavés1.090.770.680.8464
Elche0.741.711.280.646
Deportivo de La Coruña0.760.811.070.9655
Rayo Vallecano0.731.020.91.4555
Espanyol0.711.090.940.8755
Athletic Club1.020.680.550.7155
Celta de Vigo0.890.770.50.3264
Osasuna0.570.570.871.8355
Málaga0.671.450.431.0655
Valencia0.31.410.810.9564
Getafe0.60.510.111.3255

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:
Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:
P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:
Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:
Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:
Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1Barcelona
1605
2Atlético de Madrid
1598
3Real Madrid
1586
4Real Betis
1552
5Real Sociedad
1543
6Sevilla
1527
7Athletic Club
1501
8Celta de Vigo
1498
9Villarreal
1496
10Elche
1485
11Deportivo de La Coruña
1485
12Levante
1480
13Rayo Vallecano
1472
14Osasuna
1472
15Racing de Santander
1470
16Alavés
1470
17Getafe
1462
18Espanyol
1439
19Valencia
1431
20Málaga
1431

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo DiffP(Higher wins)Fair OddsTypical Matchup
050.0%2.00Evenly matched
5057.1%1.75Mid vs mid-lower
10064.0%1.56Top-8 vs bottom-8
15070.3%1.42Top-4 vs relegation
20076.0%1.32Leader vs bottom half
25080.8%1.24Leader vs bottom 3
30084.9%1.18Barcelona vs Málaga

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

146515511636
BarcelonaAtlético de MadridReal MadridReal BetisReal SociedadSevilla

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#TeamEloPeakΔGPWDL
1Barcelona16051626+10510901
2Atlético de Madrid15981598+9810811
3Real Madrid15861586+8610802
4Real Betis15521568+5210622
5Real Sociedad15431543+4310613
6Sevilla15271543+2710523
7Athletic Club15011505+110343
8Celta de Vigo14981503-210262
9Villarreal14961506-410334
10Elche14851503-1510244
11Deportivo de La Coruña14851531-1510253
12Levante14801507-2010244
13Rayo Vallecano14721500-2810244
14Osasuna14721528-2810325
15Racing de Santander14701500-3010325
16Alavés14701541-3010334
17Getafe14621500-3810235
18Espanyol14391513-6110226
19Valencia14311500-6910136
20Málaga14311500-6910055

Elo Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.

StrategyBetsWinsWin %P&LROITrend
Elo Value (edge > 3%)701217%−$210.70-30.1%
Elo Favourite804050%+$64.50+8.06%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)5480%+$0.40+0.8%
Elo Draw (>28%)311032%+$29.50+9.52%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

StrategyBetsFlat P&LFlat ROIKelly ¼ P&LKelly ¼ ROIConf P&LConf ROIComparison
Elo Value (edge > 3%)70−$210.70-30.1%−$37.43-44.43%−$201.49-29.89%
Elo Favourite80+$64.50+8.06%−$17.23-2.08%+$53.72+6.39%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)5+$0.40+0.8%$0.000%+$1.16+1.82%
Elo Draw (>28%)31+$29.50+9.52%−$15.20-96.14%+$98.29+31.19%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:
Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:
Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:
Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:
Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:
E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:
R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:
Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:
Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

No upcoming matches with odds available. Please check back later.