KPL Prediction Models
2026/2027Flat Betting Model
Odds Range Filter
Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for KPL Kenya. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.
Market ROI Summary
Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.
| Market | Bets | Wins | Win % | Staked | Return | P&L | ROI | Best Str. | Worst Str. | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Bet | 4 | 1 | 25% | $40 | $15.3 | −$24.70 | -61.75% | 1 | 3 | |
| Draw Bet | 4 | 1 | 25% | $40 | $30 | −$10.00 | -25% | 1 | 2 | |
| Away Bet | 4 | 2 | 50% | $40 | $54 | +$14.00 | +35% | 2 | 2 | |
| Over 2.5 | 4 | 1 | 25% | $40 | $22 | −$18.00 | -45% | 1 | 3 | |
| Under 2.5 | 4 | 3 | 75% | $40 | $62.5 | +$22.50 | +56.25% | 3 | 1 | |
| BTTS Yes | 3 | 1 | 33.33% | $30 | $22.5 | −$7.50 | -25% | 1 | 2 | |
| Home Favorite | 3 | 1 | 33.33% | $30 | $15.3 | −$14.70 | -49% | 1 | 2 | |
| Away Underdog | 1 | 0 | 0% | $10 | $0 | −$10.00 | -100% | 0 | 1 | |
| Favorite | 4 | 1 | 25% | $40 | $15.3 | −$24.70 | -61.75% | 1 | 3 | |
| Underdog | 4 | 2 | 50% | $40 | $54 | +$14.00 | +35% | 2 | 2 |
Staking Plan Comparison
Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).
| Market | Bets | Flat P&L | Flat ROI | Kelly ¼ P&L | Kelly ¼ ROI | Conf P&L | Conf ROI | Comparison |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Bet | 4 | −$24.70 | -61.75% | $0.00 | 0% | −$16.14 | -51.34% | |
| Draw Bet | 4 | −$10.00 | -25% | $0.00 | 0% | −$8.37 | -18.86% | |
| Away Bet | 4 | +$14.00 | +35% | $0.00 | 0% | +$10.66 | +17.33% | |
| Over 2.5 | 4 | −$18.00 | -45% | $0.00 | 0% | −$14.86 | -40.31% | |
| Under 2.5 | 4 | +$22.50 | +56.25% | $0.00 | 0% | +$17.20 | +43.16% | |
| BTTS Yes | 3 | −$7.50 | -25% | $0.00 | 0% | −$8.70 | -27.88% | |
| Home Favorite | 3 | −$14.70 | -49% | $0.00 | 0% | −$8.08 | -34.56% | |
| Away Underdog | 1 | −$10.00 | -100% | $0.00 | 0% | −$10.00 | -100% | |
| Favorite | 4 | −$24.70 | -61.75% | $0.00 | 0% | −$16.14 | -51.34% | |
| Underdog | 4 | +$14.00 | +35% | $0.00 | 0% | +$10.66 | +17.33% |
Staking Methods
- Flat Stake:
- Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
- Kelly ¼:
- Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
- Confidence-weighted:
- Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.
PPG Model
Odds Range Filter
Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for KPL Kenya. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.
Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual
How PPG predictions compared to actual match results
| Date | Match | PPG Pick | Prob | Fair Odds | Result | ✓ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Oct | Kariobangi Sharks vs Mombasa United | Mombasa United | 95% | 1.05 | 2 – 1 | ✗ |
| 11 Sept | 3K FC vs Murang'a SEAL | Murang'a SEAL | 45.48% | 2.2 | 2 – 1 | ✗ |
| 11 Sept | Gor Mahia vs Bandari | Gor Mahia | 74.36% | 1.34 | 1 – 0 | ✓ |
| 11 Sept | Leopards vs Shabana | Leopards | 42.59% | 2.35 | 0 – 0 | ✗ |
| 11 Sept | Migori Youth vs Mathare United | Migori Youth | 63.49% | 1.57 | 0 – 0 | ✗ |
Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions
Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings
| Date | Match | PPG Pick | Prob | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Sept | Tusker vs Migori Youth | Tusker | 74.36% | 1.34 |
| 11 Sept | Tusker vs Homeboyz | *** | 0% | 0 |
| 18 Sept | Shabana vs Migori Youth | 🔒 Login or register for free to see predictions data. | ||
| 18 Sept | Police vs Ulinzi Stars | |||
| 18 Sept | Murang'a SEAL vs Nairobi United | |||
PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence
Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift
Worked Example — Kariobangi Sharks vs Mombasa United
Poisson / Correct Score
Not enough data yet.
Elo Rating
Current Elo Ratings
All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.
Elo → Win Probability Table
How Elo difference translates to win probability.
| Elo Diff | P(Higher wins) | Fair Odds | Typical Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 50.0% | 2.00 | Evenly matched |
| 50 | 57.1% | 1.75 | Mid vs mid-lower |
| 100 | 64.0% | 1.56 | Top-8 vs bottom-8 |
| 150 | 70.3% | 1.42 | Top-4 vs relegation |
| 200 | 76.0% | 1.32 | Leader vs bottom half |
| 250 | 80.8% | 1.24 | Leader vs bottom 3 |
| 300 | 84.9% | 1.18 | Gor Mahia vs Mombasa United |
Elo Rating History — Top 6
How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.
How Elo Ratings Work
- Step 1 — Starting Rating:
- Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
- Step 2 — Expected Score:
- E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
- Step 3 — Update After Match:
- R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
- Step 4 — Home Advantage:
- Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
- Step 5 — Betting:
- Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.
Value Scanner
No upcoming matches with odds available. Please check back later.