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K League South Korea Prediction Models

2026

Flat Betting Model

Matches w/ Odds

$10

Stake Per Bet

+25.65%

Best: Draw Bet

-35.47%

Worst: Away Underdog

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for K League Classic South Korea. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

Market	Bets	Wins	Win %	Staked	Return	P&L	ROI	Best Str.	Worst Str.
Home Bet	78	30	38.46%	$780	$751.6	−$28.40	-3.64%	4	5
Draw Bet	78	28	35.9%	$780	$980.1	+$200.10	+25.65%	5	9
Away Bet	78	20	25.64%	$780	$578.6	−$201.40	-25.82%	2	10
Over 2.5	78	44	56.41%	$780	$873.8	+$93.80	+12.03%	6	4
Under 2.5	78	34	43.59%	$780	$816.5	+$36.50	+4.68%	4	6
BTTS Yes	78	45	57.69%	$780	$820	+$40.00	+5.13%	8	7
Home Favorite	47	22	46.81%	$470	$435.7	−$34.30	-7.3%	4	5
Away Underdog	30	4	13.33%	$300	$193.6	−$106.40	-35.47%	2	12
Favorite	78	35	44.87%	$780	$721.1	−$58.90	-7.55%	4	6
Underdog	78	15	19.23%	$780	$609.1	−$170.90	-21.91%	2	11

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

Market	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Home Bet	78	−$28.40	-3.64%	+$18.30	+22.82%	−$48.69	-6.21%
Draw Bet	78	+$200.10	+25.65%	−$4.84	-4.75%	+$217.73	+27.88%
Away Bet	78	−$201.40	-25.82%	−$55.05	-65.45%	−$154.88	-18.79%
Over 2.5	78	+$93.80	+12.03%	−$22.87	-19.33%	+$100.93	+12.52%
Under 2.5	78	+$36.50	+4.68%	−$4.68	-2.63%	+$25.68	+3.15%
BTTS Yes	78	+$40.00	+5.13%	−$3.54	-22.9%	+$39.53	+4.94%
Home Favorite	47	−$34.30	-7.3%	−$12.68	-40.52%	−$30.22	-6.33%
Away Underdog	30	−$106.40	-35.47%	−$12.26	-28.11%	−$81.48	-25.63%
Favorite	78	−$58.90	-7.55%	−$24.62	-33.42%	−$58.44	-7.35%
Underdog	78	−$170.90	-21.91%	−$19.61	-84.02%	−$200.35	-25.02%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

Team	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Daejeon Hana Citizen	13	9	69.23%	+$52.60	+40.46%
Jeju FC	13	5	38.46%	+$33.50	+25.77%
Bucheon 1995	13	3	23.08%	+$20.50	+15.77%
Ulsan HD	13	6	46.15%	+$13.10	+10.08%
Seoul	13	7	53.85%	+$5.00	+3.85%
Anyang	13	3	23.08%	−$24.50	-18.85%
Pohang Steelers	13	3	23.08%	−$30.00	-23.08%
Incheon United	13	4	30.77%	−$47.50	-36.54%
Gwangju	13	2	15.38%	−$49.70	-38.23%
Gangwon	13	3	23.08%	−$62.30	-47.92%
Gimcheon Sangmu	13	2	15.38%	−$69.50	-53.46%
Jeonbuk Motors	13	3	23.08%	−$71.00	-54.62%

PPG Model

Teams

1.33

League Avg PPG

1.08

Home Factor

λ=0.85

WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for K League Classic South Korea. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	78	27	34.62%	−$224.30	-28.76%
PPG Home Pick	39	16	41.03%	−$79.00	-20.26%
PPG Away Pick	39	11	28.21%	−$145.30	-37.26%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	76	27	35.53%	−$176.40	-23.21%
PPG Value (fair < market)	78	28	35.9%	−$63.30	-8.12%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:: Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:: Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:: Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:: Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:: Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	78	−$224.30	-28.76%	−$14.48	-53.89%	−$194.65	-25.01%
PPG Home Pick	39	−$79.00	-20.26%	−$3.42	-25.69%	−$73.78	-18.68%
PPG Away Pick	39	−$145.30	-37.26%	−$9.24	-100%	−$131.49	-33.58%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	76	−$176.40	-23.21%	−$18.45	-56.7%	−$147.37	-19.42%
PPG Value (fair < market)	78	−$63.30	-8.12%	+$7.88	+9.64%	−$82.61	-10.68%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds	Result	✓
24 Oct	Anyang vs Jeonbuk Motors	Anyang	41.08%	2.43	1 – 1	✗
24 Oct	Bucheon 1995 vs Gwangju	Bucheon 1995	60.2%	1.66	0 – 3	✗
24 Oct	Gimcheon Sangmu vs Daejeon Hana Citizen	Daejeon Hana Citizen	42.03%	2.38	1 – 2	✓
24 Oct	Incheon United vs Jeju FC	Incheon United	41.67%	2.4	3 – 1	✓
24 Oct	Seoul vs Gangwon	Seoul	52.91%	1.89	1 – 1	✗

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds
31 Oct	Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Hana Citizen	Jeonbuk Motors	42.28%	2.37
31 Oct	Gwangju vs Gimcheon Sangmu	***	0%	0
01 Nov	Pohang Steelers vs Jeju FC	🔒 Login or register for free to see predictions data.
01 Nov	Ulsan HD vs Gangwon
01 Nov	Anyang vs Bucheon 1995

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

Team	PPG ↓	H-PPG	A-PPG	WPPG	vs Avg
1Seoul	2.03	1.94	2.12	1.74	+0.70
2Ulsan HD	1.55	1.71	1.38	1.47	+0.22
3Daejeon Hana Citizen	1.48	1.41	1.56	2.17	+0.15
4Gangwon	1.45	1.41	1.5	1.31	+0.12
5Jeonbuk Motors	1.45	1.69	1.24	1.28	+0.12
6Incheon United	1.39	1.47	1.31	1.61	+0.06
7Jeju FC	1.39	1.29	1.5	1.17	+0.06
8Anyang	1.3	1.13	1.47	1.35	-0.03
9Pohang Steelers	1.27	1.14	1.37	1.1	-0.06
10Gimcheon Sangmu	1.03	0.81	1.24	0.94	-0.30
11Bucheon 1995	0.97	0.89	1.07	0.51	-0.36
12Gwangju	0.64	0.65	0.63	1.12	-0.69

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

Daejeon Hana Citizen

PPG: 1.48WPPG: 2.17Gap: ↑ 0.69

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Gwangju

PPG: 0.64WPPG: 1.12Gap: ↑ 0.48

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Bucheon 1995

PPG: 0.97WPPG: 0.51Gap: ↓ 0.46

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Seoul

PPG: 2.03WPPG: 1.74Gap: ↓ 0.29

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Incheon United

PPG: 1.39WPPG: 1.61Gap: ↑ 0.22

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Worked Example — Anyang vs Jeonbuk Motors

P(Anyang) = 1.31 / (1.31+1.47) × 1.08

= 0.471 × 1.08 = 41.08% → Fair odds 2.43

P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)

= 23.88% → Fair odds 4.19

P(Jeonbuk Motors) = 1 − 41.08% − 23.88%

= 35.04% → Fair odds 2.85

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

1.58

Home xG (λ)

1.67

Away xG (λ)

3.25

Total E[goals]

1.22

League Avg Home

1.29

League Avg Away

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Hana Citizen

30 Oct · Each cell shows the probability of that exact scoreline. Dixon-Coles corrected (ρ = -0.13). · Upcoming

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	5.2%	5.2%	5.4%	3.0%	1.3%	0.4%	0.1%
1	4.8%	11.6%	8.6%	4.8%	2.0%	0.7%	0.2%
2	4.8%	8.1%	6.8%	3.8%	1.6%	0.5%	0.1%
3	2.6%	4.3%	3.6%	2.0%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%
4	1.0%	1.7%	1.4%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%
5	0.3%	0.5%	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
6	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Most likely High Medium Low

Derived Markets

Home Win

35.14%

Fair odds: 2.85

Draw

25.94%

Fair odds: 3.86

Away Win

38.92%

Fair odds: 2.57

Over 0.594.78%/ Under 5.22%Fair: 1.06

Over 1.584.81%/ Under 15.19%Fair: 1.18

Over 2.562.93%/ Under 37.07%Fair: 1.59

Over 3.540.68%/ Under 59.32%Fair: 2.46

Over 4.522.61%/ Under 77.39%Fair: 4.42

BTTS Yes65.74%Fair: 1.52

BTTS No34.26%Fair: 2.92

Correct Score — Top 12

11-1

11.6%D

21-2

8.57%A

32-1

8.11%H

42-2

6.77%D

50-2

5.42%A

60-0

5.22%D

70-1

5.16%A

82-0

4.85%H

91-0

4.81%H

101-3

4.77%A

113-1

4.27%H

122-3

3.77%A

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Where the low-score correction adds value

Plain Poisson

P(0-0) = 3.9%

P(1-0) = 6.1%

P(0-1) = 6.5%

P(1-1) = 10.2%

✗ Underestimates 0-0, 1-0, 0-1

Dixon-Coles (ρ correction)

P(0-0) = 5.2% (+1.3%)

P(1-0) = 4.8% (-1.3%)

P(0-1) = 5.2% (-1.3%)

P(1-1) = 11.6% (+1.4%)

✓ Fixes low-score underestimation

💡 Why does this matter? Draws in football are dominated by 0-0 and 1-1. Plain Poisson underprices these by 15–20%. Dixon-Coles corrects this, generating better ROI on draw markets.

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Poisson/Dixon-Coles model — xG computed only from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	64	21	32.81%	−$75.70	-11.83%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	12	4	33.33%	−$55.00	-45.83%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	18	7	38.89%	−$41.40	-23%
DC Draw (>28%)	45	19	42.22%	+$189.90	+42.2%
DC Over 2.5 Value	16	10	62.5%	+$42.80	+26.75%
DC BTTS Value	12	5	41.67%	−$27.70	-23.08%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Dixon-Coles bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	64	−$75.70	-11.83%	−$18.72	-34.84%	−$91.96	-13.73%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	12	−$55.00	-45.83%	$0.00	0%	−$53.09	-44.8%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	18	−$41.40	-23%	−$24.55	-81.97%	−$30.16	-14.42%
DC Draw (>28%)	45	+$189.90	+42.2%	+$38.72	+39.78%	+$205.14	+46.04%
DC Over 2.5 Value	16	+$42.80	+26.75%	−$1.13	-1.68%	+$44.03	+26.42%
DC BTTS Value	12	−$27.70	-23.08%	−$2.08	-100%	−$29.03	-23.94%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

Team	Att (H)	Def (H)	Att (A)	Def (A)	H GP	A GP
Seoul	1.38	0.68	1.55	0.72	16	17
Daejeon Hana Citizen	1.16	1	1.41	0.97	17	16
Ulsan HD	1.45	1.19	1.07	1.08	17	16
Incheon United	1.11	0.78	0.97	0.92	17	16
Jeonbuk Motors	1.33	0.92	0.78	0.68	16	17
Gangwon	0.96	0.64	0.97	0.82	17	16
Anyang	0.92	1.36	1	0.96	16	17
Jeju FC	0.87	0.82	1.02	0.97	17	16
Gimcheon Sangmu	0.77	1.11	0.82	0.87	16	17
Bucheon 1995	0.82	1.25	0.72	0.98	18	15
Pohang Steelers	0.35	0.61	0.98	1.21	14	19
Gwangju	0.77	1.55	0.68	1.79	17	16

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:: Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:: P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:: Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:: Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:: Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1Seoul

1604

2Daejeon Hana Citizen

1555

3Gangwon

1527

4Incheon United

1526

5Jeonbuk Motors

1521

6Jeju FC

1512

7Ulsan HD

1510

8Anyang

1500

9Pohang Steelers

1490

10Gimcheon Sangmu

1468

11Bucheon 1995

1397

12Gwangju

1389

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo Diff	P(Higher wins)	Fair Odds	Typical Matchup
0	50.0%	2.00	Evenly matched
50	57.1%	1.75	Mid vs mid-lower
100	64.0%	1.56	Top-8 vs bottom-8
150	70.3%	1.42	Top-4 vs relegation
200	76.0%	1.32	Leader vs bottom half
250	80.8%	1.24	Leader vs bottom 3
300	84.9%	1.18	Seoul vs Gwangju

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

SeoulDaejeon Hana CitizenGangwonIncheon UnitedJeonbuk MotorsJeju FC

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#	Team	Elo	Peak	Δ	GP	W	D	L
1	Seoul	1604	1631	+104	33	20	7	6
2	Daejeon Hana Citizen	1555	1555	+55	33	13	10	10
3	Gangwon	1527	1574	+27	33	11	15	7
4	Incheon United	1526	1526	+26	33	12	10	11
5	Jeonbuk Motors	1521	1554	+21	33	12	12	9
6	Jeju FC	1512	1551	+12	33	12	10	11
7	Ulsan HD	1510	1548	+10	33	15	6	12
8	Anyang	1500	1541	+0	33	10	13	10
9	Pohang Steelers	1490	1546	-10	33	11	9	13
10	Gimcheon Sangmu	1468	1511	-32	33	5	19	9
11	Bucheon 1995	1397	1519	-103	33	7	11	15
12	Gwangju	1389	1515	-111	33	3	12	18

Elo Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	56	13	23%	−$73.30	-13.09%
Elo Favourite	78	31	40%	−$98.90	-12.68%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	14	7	50%	−$20.60	-14.71%
Elo Away Pick (>50%)	2	1	50%	−$4.10	-20.5%
Elo Draw (>28%)	22	8	36%	+$51.60	+23.45%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	56	−$73.30	-13.09%	−$19.69	-42.03%	−$93.54	-16.6%
Elo Favourite	78	−$98.90	-12.68%	−$13.35	-13.03%	−$97.42	-12.32%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	14	−$20.60	-14.71%	$0.00	0%	−$23.85	-16.87%
Elo Away Pick (>50%)	2	−$4.10	-20.5%	$0.00	0%	−$3.74	-19.04%
Elo Draw (>28%)	22	+$51.60	+23.45%	−$11.60	-48.95%	+$53.48	+24.13%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:: Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:: E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:: R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:: Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:: Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

No upcoming matches with odds available. Please check back later.

K League South Korea Prediction Models

Flat Betting Model

Odds Range Filter

Market ROI Summary

Staking Plan Comparison

By Team Bets

PPG Model

Odds Range Filter

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

PPG Ratings — All Teams

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Worked Example — Anyang vs Jeonbuk Motors

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Hana Citizen

Derived Markets

Correct Score — Top 12

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Team Attack & Defense Strength

How Poisson Predictions Work

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

Elo → Win Probability Table

Elo Rating History — Top 6

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Elo Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

How Elo Ratings Work

Value Scanner