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J1 League Japan Prediction Models

2026

Flat Betting Model

120

Matches w/ Odds

$10

Stake Per Bet

+10.27%

Best: Over 2.5

-48.79%

Worst: Away Underdog

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for J1 League Japan. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

Market	Bets	Wins	Win %	Staked	Return	P&L	ROI	Best Str.	Worst Str.
Home Bet	120	53	44.17%	$1200	$1217	+$17.00	+1.42%	4	7
Draw Bet	120	29	24.17%	$1200	$1040.3	−$159.70	-13.31%	4	9
Away Bet	120	38	31.67%	$1200	$993.1	−$206.90	-17.24%	4	7
Over 2.5	120	69	57.5%	$1200	$1323.3	+$123.30	+10.27%	6	3
Under 2.5	120	51	42.5%	$1200	$1208	+$8.00	+0.67%	3	6
BTTS Yes	120	68	56.67%	$1200	$1222.4	+$22.40	+1.87%	6	5
Home Favorite	72	40	55.56%	$720	$756.7	+$36.70	+5.1%	6	5
Away Underdog	43	5	11.63%	$430	$220.2	−$209.80	-48.79%	1	10
Favorite	120	64	53.33%	$1200	$1248.8	+$48.80	+4.07%	8	6
Underdog	120	27	22.5%	$1200	$961.3	−$238.70	-19.89%	2	16

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

Market	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Home Bet	120	+$17.00	+1.42%	−$49.09	-20.9%	+$79.75	+6.37%
Draw Bet	120	−$159.70	-13.31%	−$3.80	-100%	−$142.01	-11.97%
Away Bet	120	−$206.90	-17.24%	−$64.53	-48.9%	−$90.80	-7.51%
Over 2.5	120	+$123.30	+10.27%	−$7.90	-2.19%	+$117.56	+9.21%
Under 2.5	120	+$8.00	+0.67%	−$5.80	-8.42%	−$10.96	-0.87%
BTTS Yes	120	+$22.40	+1.87%	−$34.13	-12.75%	+$20.23	+1.63%
Home Favorite	72	+$36.70	+5.1%	−$37.31	-11.93%	+$66.24	+8.91%
Away Underdog	43	−$209.80	-48.79%	−$0.35	-100%	−$196.54	-45.18%
Favorite	120	+$48.80	+4.07%	−$60.88	-20.73%	+$90.25	+7.34%
Underdog	120	−$238.70	-19.89%	−$30.72	-69.1%	−$162.56	-13.29%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

Team	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Urawa Reds	12	7	58.33%	+$55.60	+46.33%
Kashiwa Reysol	12	8	66.67%	+$53.30	+44.42%
Machida Zelvia	12	8	66.67%	+$51.50	+42.92%
Vissel Kobe	12	7	58.33%	+$36.40	+30.33%
Yokohama F. Marinos	12	4	33.33%	+$15.80	+13.17%
Nagoya Grampus	12	4	33.33%	+$15.50	+12.92%
Tokyo	12	8	66.67%	+$15.30	+12.75%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima	12	8	66.67%	+$8.40	+7%
Fagiano Okayama	12	5	41.67%	+$7.70	+6.42%
Kawasaki Frontale	12	6	50%	+$6.70	+5.58%
V-Varen Nagasaki	12	3	25%	+$5.10	+4.25%
Shimizu S-Pulse	12	4	33.33%	−$8.90	-7.42%
Kashima Antlers	12	6	50%	−$10.90	-9.08%
Mito Hollyhock	12	2	16.67%	−$38.70	-32.25%
Cerezo Osaka	12	3	25%	−$44.10	-36.75%
Kyoto Sanga	12	2	16.67%	−$53.30	-44.42%
Avispa Fukuoka	12	2	16.67%	−$61.00	-50.83%
Gamba Osaka	12	2	16.67%	−$68.50	-57.08%
JEF United	12	1	8.33%	−$86.80	-72.33%
Tokyo Verdy	12	1	8.33%	−$89.00	-74.17%

PPG Model

Teams

1.37

League Avg PPG

1.08

Home Factor

λ=0.85

WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for J1 League Japan. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	117	63	53.85%	+$94.20	+8.05%
PPG Home Pick	68	39	57.35%	+$74.80	+11%
PPG Away Pick	49	24	48.98%	+$19.40	+3.96%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	119	58	48.74%	−$47.10	-3.96%
PPG Value (fair < market)	120	49	40.83%	+$16.00	+1.33%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:: Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:: Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:: Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:: Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:: Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	117	+$94.20	+8.05%	−$33.65	-11.55%	+$125.79	+10.44%
PPG Home Pick	68	+$74.80	+11%	−$7.49	-2.7%	+$87.32	+12.49%
PPG Away Pick	49	+$19.40	+3.96%	−$21.54	-30.41%	+$36.10	+7.25%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	119	−$47.10	-3.96%	−$73.94	-44.7%	+$18.13	+1.47%
PPG Value (fair < market)	120	+$16.00	+1.33%	−$44.28	-20.12%	+$67.95	+5.57%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds	Result	✓
25 Oct	Tokyo vs Mito Hollyhock	Tokyo	69.61%	1.44	6 – 0	✓
25 Oct	Kawasaki Frontale vs Fagiano Okayama	Kawasaki Frontale	45.53%	2.2	2 – 1	✓
25 Oct	Urawa Reds vs V-Varen Nagasaki	Urawa Reds	51.66%	1.94	1 – 0	✓
25 Oct	Cerezo Osaka vs JEF United	Cerezo Osaka	66.51%	1.5	2 – 2	✗
25 Oct	Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos	Nagoya Grampus	46.39%	2.16	1 – 1	✗

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds
31 Oct	Kyoto Sanga vs Shimizu S-Pulse	Kyoto Sanga	40.52%	2.47
31 Oct	Fagiano Okayama vs Tokyo	***	0%	0
31 Oct	Mito Hollyhock vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima	🔒 Login or register for free to see predictions data.
31 Oct	Vissel Kobe vs Nagoya Grampus
31 Oct	Kashima Antlers vs Cerezo Osaka

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

Team	PPG ↓	H-PPG	A-PPG	WPPG	vs Avg
1Kashima Antlers	2.1	2.47	1.73	1.52	+0.73
2Tokyo	2	1.94	2.07	2.33	+0.63
3Machida Zelvia	1.97	1.79	2.13	2.09	+0.60
4Vissel Kobe	1.87	2.21	1.56	1.7	+0.50
5Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1.8	2.07	1.53	2.14	+0.43
6Kawasaki Frontale	1.57	1.75	1.36	2.03	+0.20
7Urawa Reds	1.53	1.6	1.47	2.04	+0.16
8Kashiwa Reysol	1.47	1.5	1.44	1.9	+0.10
9Nagoya Grampus	1.43	1.67	1.2	1.32	+0.06
10Cerezo Osaka	1.37	1.56	1.14	1.09	0.00
11Fagiano Okayama	1.33	1.53	1.13	1.23	-0.04
12Yokohama F. Marinos	1.27	1.14	1.38	1.37	-0.10
13Gamba Osaka	1.13	1.21	1.06	1.01	-0.24
14Shimizu S-Pulse	1.13	1.13	1.14	1.07	-0.24
15Tokyo Verdy	1.1	1.29	0.85	0.94	-0.27
16V-Varen Nagasaki	1.07	1.47	0.67	1.01	-0.30
17Kyoto Sanga	1	1.14	0.88	0.85	-0.37
18Avispa Fukuoka	0.8	0.94	0.64	0.56	-0.57
19Mito Hollyhock	0.77	1	0.53	0.45	-0.60
20JEF United	0.63	0.93	0.38	0.66	-0.74

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

Kashima Antlers

PPG: 2.1WPPG: 1.52Gap: ↓ 0.58

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Urawa Reds

PPG: 1.53WPPG: 2.04Gap: ↑ 0.51

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Kawasaki Frontale

PPG: 1.57WPPG: 2.03Gap: ↑ 0.46

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Kashiwa Reysol

PPG: 1.47WPPG: 1.9Gap: ↑ 0.43

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

PPG: 1.8WPPG: 2.14Gap: ↑ 0.34

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Worked Example — Tokyo vs Mito Hollyhock

P(Tokyo) = 1.97 / (1.97+0.79) × 1.08

= 0.714 × 1.08 = 69.61% → Fair odds 1.44

P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)

= 10.75% → Fair odds 9.3

P(Mito Hollyhock) = 1 − 69.61% − 10.75%

= 19.65% → Fair odds 5.09

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

1.33

Home xG (λ)

1.12

Away xG (λ)

2.45

Total E[goals]

1.46

League Avg Home

1.3

League Avg Away

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Kyoto Sanga vs Shimizu S-Pulse

30 Oct · Each cell shows the probability of that exact scoreline. Dixon-Coles corrected (ρ = -0.13). · Upcoming

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	10.3%	8.0%	5.4%	2.0%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%
1	9.8%	14.5%	7.2%	2.7%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%
2	7.6%	8.6%	4.8%	1.8%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
3	3.4%	3.8%	2.1%	0.8%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%
4	1.1%	1.3%	0.7%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
5	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Most likely High Medium Low

Derived Markets

Home Win

39.78%

Fair odds: 2.51

Draw

30.5%

Fair odds: 3.28

Away Win

29.72%

Fair odds: 3.36

Over 0.589.69%/ Under 10.31%Fair: 1.11

Over 1.571.88%/ Under 28.12%Fair: 1.39

Over 2.544.29%/ Under 55.71%Fair: 2.26

Over 3.523.13%/ Under 76.87%Fair: 4.32

Over 4.510.17%/ Under 89.83%Fair: 9.83

BTTS Yes51.21%Fair: 1.95

BTTS No48.79%Fair: 2.05

Correct Score — Top 12

11-1

14.53%D

20-0

10.31%D

31-0

9.81%H

42-1

8.55%H

50-1

8%A

62-0

7.64%H

71-2

7.2%A

80-2

5.42%A

92-2

4.79%D

103-1

3.79%H

113-0

3.39%H

121-3

2.69%A

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Where the low-score correction adds value

Plain Poisson

P(0-0) = 8.6%

P(1-0) = 11.5%

P(0-1) = 9.7%

P(1-1) = 12.8%

✗ Underestimates 0-0, 1-0, 0-1

Dixon-Coles (ρ correction)

P(0-0) = 10.3% (+1.7%)

P(1-0) = 9.8% (-1.7%)

P(0-1) = 8.0% (-1.7%)

P(1-1) = 14.5% (+1.7%)

✓ Fixes low-score underestimation

💡 Why does this matter? Draws in football are dominated by 0-0 and 1-1. Plain Poisson underprices these by 15–20%. Dixon-Coles corrects this, generating better ROI on draw markets.

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Poisson/Dixon-Coles model — xG computed only from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	87	33	37.93%	−$60.40	-6.94%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	35	24	68.57%	+$75.60	+21.6%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	26	14	53.85%	+$12.90	+4.96%
DC Draw (>28%)	50	14	28%	−$7.90	-1.58%
DC Over 2.5 Value	39	23	58.97%	+$62.10	+15.92%
DC BTTS Value	30	18	60%	+$23.50	+7.83%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Dixon-Coles bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	87	−$60.40	-6.94%	−$45.51	-10.12%	−$22.13	-2.56%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	35	+$75.60	+21.6%	+$43.56	+7.25%	+$77.66	+21.87%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	26	+$12.90	+4.96%	−$29.19	-32.93%	+$27.37	+10.28%
DC Draw (>28%)	50	−$7.90	-1.58%	−$3.96	-24.63%	−$12.30	-2.48%
DC Over 2.5 Value	39	+$62.10	+15.92%	+$16.70	+11.84%	+$59.14	+14.36%
DC BTTS Value	30	+$23.50	+7.83%	−$1.51	-8.31%	+$18.89	+5.96%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

Team	Att (H)	Def (H)	Att (A)	Def (A)	H GP	A GP
Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1.55	0.56	1.23	0.91	15	15
Tokyo	1.24	0.72	1.43	0.44	16	14
Kashima Antlers	1.14	0.46	1.49	0.96	15	15
Machida Zelvia	0.98	0.93	1.59	0.51	14	16
Kawasaki Frontale	1.37	1.44	0.88	0.73	16	14
Urawa Reds	1.14	1.08	1.08	0.91	15	15
Kashiwa Reysol	1.17	1.1	1.06	0.98	14	16
Vissel Kobe	1.08	0.71	1.11	0.81	14	16
Nagoya Grampus	1.05	0.97	1.13	1.23	15	15
Yokohama F. Marinos	0.98	1.21	1.15	0.81	14	16
Gamba Osaka	1.03	0.99	0.91	1.07	14	16
Fagiano Okayama	0.82	0.92	1.08	1.1	15	15
Cerezo Osaka	1.07	0.77	0.71	1.08	16	14
V-Varen Nagasaki	0.96	1.08	0.72	1.19	15	15
Kyoto Sanga	0.98	1.21	0.67	1.16	14	16
Mito Hollyhock	0.78	1.08	0.72	1.64	15	15
JEF United	0.64	1.21	0.82	1.41	14	16
Avispa Fukuoka	0.77	1.15	0.66	1.17	16	14
Shimizu S-Pulse	0.68	1.06	0.71	0.93	16	14
Tokyo Verdy	0.64	1.27	0.71	0.95	17	13

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:: Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:: P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:: Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:: Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:: Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1Machida Zelvia

1626

2Tokyo

1616

3Vissel Kobe

1593

4Kashima Antlers

1587

5Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1581

6Kawasaki Frontale

1556

7Kashiwa Reysol

1550

8Urawa Reds

1533

9Nagoya Grampus

1511

10Yokohama F. Marinos

1508

11Cerezo Osaka

1498

12Fagiano Okayama

1481

13Gamba Osaka

1457

14Shimizu S-Pulse

1446

15V-Varen Nagasaki

1440

16Tokyo Verdy

1436

17Kyoto Sanga

1435

18Mito Hollyhock

1388

19Avispa Fukuoka

1384

20JEF United

1372

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo Diff	P(Higher wins)	Fair Odds	Typical Matchup
0	50.0%	2.00	Evenly matched
50	57.1%	1.75	Mid vs mid-lower
100	64.0%	1.56	Top-8 vs bottom-8
150	70.3%	1.42	Top-4 vs relegation
200	76.0%	1.32	Leader vs bottom half
250	80.8%	1.24	Leader vs bottom 3
300	84.9%	1.18	Machida Zelvia vs JEF United

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

Machida ZelviaTokyoVissel KobeKashima AntlersSanfrecce HiroshimaKawasaki Frontale

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#	Team	Elo	Peak	Δ	GP	W	D	L
1	Machida Zelvia	1626	1626	+126	30	16	11	3
2	Tokyo	1616	1618	+116	30	17	9	4
3	Vissel Kobe	1593	1614	+93	30	16	8	6
4	Kashima Antlers	1587	1664	+87	30	19	6	5
5	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1581	1594	+81	30	16	6	8
6	Kawasaki Frontale	1556	1556	+56	30	13	8	9
7	Kashiwa Reysol	1550	1550	+50	30	14	2	14
8	Urawa Reds	1533	1538	+33	30	14	4	12
9	Nagoya Grampus	1511	1562	+11	30	12	7	11
10	Yokohama F. Marinos	1508	1515	+8	30	10	8	12
11	Cerezo Osaka	1498	1555	-2	30	10	11	9
12	Fagiano Okayama	1481	1539	-19	30	11	7	12
13	Gamba Osaka	1457	1530	-43	30	7	13	10
14	Shimizu S-Pulse	1446	1522	-54	30	8	10	12
15	V-Varen Nagasaki	1440	1503	-60	30	9	5	16
16	Tokyo Verdy	1436	1531	-64	30	8	9	13
17	Kyoto Sanga	1435	1532	-65	30	7	9	14
18	Mito Hollyhock	1388	1500	-112	30	4	11	15
19	Avispa Fukuoka	1384	1500	-116	30	5	9	16
20	JEF United	1372	1500	-128	30	4	7	19

Elo Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	86	26	30%	−$138.40	-16.09%
Elo Favourite	120	61	51%	+$43.50	+3.62%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	31	21	68%	+$48.70	+15.71%
Elo Away Pick (>50%)	6	3	50%	−$4.90	-8.17%
Elo Draw (>28%)	31	8	26%	−$21.90	-7.06%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	86	−$138.40	-16.09%	−$34.16	-49.34%	−$110.59	-12.02%
Elo Favourite	120	+$43.50	+3.62%	−$55.04	-17.15%	+$85.56	+6.87%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	31	+$48.70	+15.71%	−$31.08	-9.69%	+$58.71	+18.95%
Elo Away Pick (>50%)	6	−$4.90	-8.17%	−$4.90	-100%	−$1.21	-1.94%
Elo Draw (>28%)	31	−$21.90	-7.06%	−$2.94	-100%	−$33.30	-10.75%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:: Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:: E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:: R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:: Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:: Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

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J1 League Japan Prediction Models

Flat Betting Model

Odds Range Filter

Market ROI Summary

Staking Plan Comparison

By Team Bets

PPG Model

Odds Range Filter

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

PPG Ratings — All Teams

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Worked Example — Tokyo vs Mito Hollyhock

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Kyoto Sanga vs Shimizu S-Pulse

Derived Markets

Correct Score — Top 12

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Team Attack & Defense Strength

How Poisson Predictions Work

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

Elo → Win Probability Table

Elo Rating History — Top 6

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Elo Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

How Elo Ratings Work

Value Scanner