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HNL Croatia Prediction Models

2026/2027

Flat Betting Model

Matches w/ Odds

$10

Stake Per Bet

+25.83%

Best: Home Bet

-21.67%

Worst: Draw Bet

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for HNL Croatia. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

Market	Bets	Wins	Win %	Staked	Return	P&L	ROI	Best Str.	Worst Str.
Home Bet	54	29	53.7%	$540	$679.5	+$139.50	+25.83%	5	5
Draw Bet	54	11	20.37%	$540	$423	−$117.00	-21.67%	3	10
Away Bet	54	14	25.93%	$540	$424.1	−$115.90	-21.46%	2	13
Over 2.5	53	33	62.26%	$530	$577.8	+$47.80	+9.02%	7	4
Under 2.5	53	20	37.74%	$530	$471.8	−$58.20	-10.98%	4	7
BTTS Yes	53	29	54.72%	$530	$511.9	−$18.10	-3.42%	5	6
Home Favorite	35	22	62.86%	$350	$369	+$19.00	+5.43%	9	3
Away Underdog	22	4	18.18%	$220	$197.6	−$22.40	-10.18%	2	14
Favorite	54	28	51.85%	$540	$468.4	−$71.60	-13.26%	4	4
Underdog	54	15	27.78%	$540	$635.2	+$95.20	+17.63%	3	13

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

Market	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Home Bet	54	+$139.50	+25.83%	+$61.49	+11.73%	+$78.59	+15.32%
Draw Bet	54	−$117.00	-21.67%	−$3.57	-100%	−$107.45	-19.1%
Away Bet	54	−$115.90	-21.46%	−$41.57	-72.02%	−$85.42	-13.52%
Over 2.5	53	+$47.80	+9.02%	−$3.17	-1.18%	+$48.45	+9.07%
Under 2.5	53	−$58.20	-10.98%	+$1.19	+19.6%	−$62.44	-11.33%
BTTS Yes	53	−$18.10	-3.42%	−$12.91	-28.18%	−$15.51	-2.85%
Home Favorite	35	+$19.00	+5.43%	−$4.11	-2.27%	+$19.11	+5.53%
Away Underdog	22	−$22.40	-10.18%	$0.00	0%	−$18.64	-8.43%
Favorite	54	−$71.60	-13.26%	−$15.48	-20.03%	−$61.22	-11.27%
Underdog	54	+$95.20	+17.63%	−$48.80	-42.81%	+$193.02	+33.63%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

Team	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Rudeš	11	3	27.27%	+$77.10	+70.09%
Slaven Koprivnica	11	4	36.36%	+$40.90	+37.18%
Varaždin	11	5	45.45%	+$27.60	+25.09%
Osijek	11	5	45.45%	+$26.20	+23.82%
Hajduk Split	11	7	63.64%	+$18.80	+17.09%
Dinamo Zagreb	10	7	70%	−$8.40	-8.4%
Rijeka	10	5	50%	−$18.10	-18.1%
Lokomotiva Zagreb	11	3	27.27%	−$32.30	-29.36%
Istra 1961	11	3	27.27%	−$38.80	-35.27%
HNK Gorica	11	1	9.09%	−$69.40	-63.09%

PPG Model

Teams

1.41

League Avg PPG

1.08

Home Factor

λ=0.85

WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for HNL Croatia. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	44	20	45.45%	−$113.70	-25.84%
PPG Home Pick	20	13	65%	−$0.60	-0.3%
PPG Away Pick	24	7	29.17%	−$113.10	-47.13%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	44	19	43.18%	−$128.20	-29.14%
PPG Value (fair < market)	47	17	36.17%	−$32.20	-6.85%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:: Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:: Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:: Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:: Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:: Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	44	−$113.70	-25.84%	−$71.26	-47.01%	−$80.84	-18.03%
PPG Home Pick	20	−$0.60	-0.3%	−$39.41	-20.73%	+$6.51	+3.12%
PPG Away Pick	24	−$113.10	-47.13%	−$11.69	-100%	−$100.18	-40.87%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	44	−$128.20	-29.14%	−$69.16	-57.83%	−$94.77	-20.74%
PPG Value (fair < market)	47	−$32.20	-6.85%	−$44.85	-11.79%	−$44.42	-10.59%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds	Result	✓
27 Oct	Dinamo Zagreb vs Rijeka	Dinamo Zagreb	45.94%	2.18	2 – 1	✓
26 Oct	Istra 1961 vs Hajduk Split	Hajduk Split	52.13%	1.92	2 – 2	✗
25 Oct	Osijek vs Rudeš	Osijek	68.9%	1.45	0 – 1	✗
24 Oct	Varaždin vs Slaven Koprivnica	Varaždin	60.43%	1.65	1 – 2	✗
24 Oct	HNK Gorica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb	Lokomotiva Zagreb	49.03%	2.04	0 – 0	✗

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds
08 Aug	Rijeka vs Dinamo Zagreb	Dinamo Zagreb	40.29%	2.48
30 Oct	Slaven Koprivnica vs Istra 1961	***	0%	0
31 Oct	Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica	🔒 Login or register for free to see predictions data.
31 Oct	Rudeš vs Dinamo Zagreb
01 Nov	Rijeka vs Varaždin

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

Team	PPG ↓	H-PPG	A-PPG	WPPG	vs Avg
1Dinamo Zagreb	2.2	3	1	2.16	+0.79
2Hajduk Split	2.09	2.67	1.4	2.12	+0.68
3Rijeka	1.7	3	0.83	1.55	+0.29
4Varaždin	1.64	1.83	1.4	1.26	+0.23
5Osijek	1.55	1.67	1.4	1.13	+0.14
6Slaven Koprivnica	1.18	1.8	0.67	1.45	-0.23
7Istra 1961	1.18	1.33	1	1.19	-0.23
8Lokomotiva Zagreb	1	1.75	0.57	0.97	-0.41
9Rudeš	0.91	0.8	1	1.21	-0.50
10HNK Gorica	0.64	0.5	0.8	0.83	-0.77

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

Osijek

PPG: 1.55WPPG: 1.13Gap: ↓ 0.42

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Varaždin

PPG: 1.64WPPG: 1.26Gap: ↓ 0.38

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Rudeš

PPG: 0.91WPPG: 1.21Gap: ↑ 0.30

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Slaven Koprivnica

PPG: 1.18WPPG: 1.45Gap: ↑ 0.27

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

HNK Gorica

PPG: 0.64WPPG: 0.83Gap: ↑ 0.19

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Worked Example — Dinamo Zagreb vs Rijeka

P(Dinamo Zagreb) = 2.11 / (2.11+1.89) × 1.08

= 0.527 × 1.08 = 45.94% → Fair odds 2.18

P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)

= 24.01% → Fair odds 4.17

P(Rijeka) = 1 − 45.94% − 24.01%

= 30.05% → Fair odds 3.33

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

Home xG (λ)

1.98

Away xG (λ)

4.98

Total E[goals]

1.78

League Avg Home

1.26

League Avg Away

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Rijeka vs Dinamo Zagreb

07 Aug · Each cell shows the probability of that exact scoreline. Dixon-Coles corrected (ρ = -0.13). · Upcoming

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	1.3%	0.9%	1.4%	0.9%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%
1	1.6%	4.8%	4.2%	2.8%	1.4%	0.5%	0.2%
2	3.2%	6.4%	6.3%	4.2%	2.1%	0.8%	0.3%
3	3.2%	6.4%	6.3%	4.2%	2.1%	0.8%	0.3%
4	2.4%	4.8%	4.7%	3.1%	1.5%	0.6%	0.2%
5	1.4%	2.9%	2.8%	1.9%	0.9%	0.4%	0.1%
6	0.7%	1.4%	1.4%	0.9%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%

Most likely High Medium Low

Derived Markets

Home Win

57.18%

Fair odds: 1.75

Market: 3.05 (32.8%)

Draw

18.49%

Fair odds: 5.41

Market: 3.40 (29.4%)

Away Win

24.33%

Fair odds: 4.11

Market: 2.43 (41.2%)

Over 0.598.73%/ Under 1.27%Fair: 1.01

Over 1.596.28%/ Under 3.72%Fair: 1.04

Over 2.586.87%/ Under 13.13%Fair: 1.15

Over 3.572.17%/ Under 27.83%Fair: 1.39

Over 4.553.86%/ Under 46.14%Fair: 1.86

BTTS Yes82.25%Fair: 1.22

BTTS No17.75%Fair: 5.63

Correct Score — Top 12

12-1

6.36%H

23-1

6.36%H

32-2

6.3%D

43-2

6.3%H

51-1

4.79%D

64-1

4.77%H

74-2

4.73%H

81-2

4.2%A

92-3

4.16%A

103-3

4.16%D

112-0

3.21%H

123-0

3.21%H

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Where the low-score correction adds value

Plain Poisson

P(0-0) = 0.7%

P(1-0) = 2.1%

P(0-1) = 1.4%

P(1-1) = 4.1%

✗ Underestimates 0-0, 1-0, 0-1

Dixon-Coles (ρ correction)

P(0-0) = 1.3% (+0.6%)

P(1-0) = 1.6% (-0.5%)

P(0-1) = 0.9% (-0.5%)

P(1-1) = 4.8% (+0.7%)

✓ Fixes low-score underestimation

💡 Why does this matter? Draws in football are dominated by 0-0 and 1-1. Plain Poisson underprices these by 15–20%. Dixon-Coles corrects this, generating better ROI on draw markets.

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Poisson/Dixon-Coles model — xG computed only from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	28	9	32.14%	−$100.40	-35.86%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	18	9	50%	−$34.90	-19.39%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	4	1	25%	−$26.80	-67%
DC Draw (>28%)	4	1	25%	−$8.00	-20%
DC Over 2.5 Value	13	9	69.23%	+$27.80	+21.38%
DC BTTS Value	9	5	55.56%	−$4.90	-5.44%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Dixon-Coles bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	28	−$100.40	-35.86%	−$31.71	-58.61%	−$70.07	-29.53%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	18	−$34.90	-19.39%	−$31.64	-51.62%	−$25.86	-15.82%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	4	−$26.80	-67%	$0.00	0%	−$15.67	-28.35%
DC Draw (>28%)	4	−$8.00	-20%	$0.00	0%	−$6.06	-13.69%
DC Over 2.5 Value	13	+$27.80	+21.38%	+$8.37	+13.82%	+$27.96	+21.22%
DC BTTS Value	9	−$4.90	-5.44%	$0.00	0%	−$3.85	-4.15%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

Team	Att (H)	Def (H)	Att (A)	Def (A)	H GP	A GP
Dinamo Zagreb	1.4	0.53	1.98	1.26	6	4
Hajduk Split	1.12	0.4	1.43	0.9	6	5
Istra 1961	1.12	1.32	1.11	0.9	6	5
Osijek	0.94	0.93	1.43	1.01	6	5
Rijeka	1.69	0.79	0.66	0.94	4	6
Varaždin	0.66	0.4	1.27	0.79	6	5
Slaven Koprivnica	1.12	1.75	0.53	1.12	5	6
Rudeš	0.9	2.38	0.79	1.12	5	6
Lokomotiva Zagreb	0.84	0.6	0.79	1.12	4	7
HNK Gorica	0.37	1.06	0.48	0.79	6	5

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:: Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:: P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:: Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:: Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:: Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1Hajduk Split

1566

2Dinamo Zagreb

1561

3Rijeka

1529

4Varaždin

1512

5Osijek

1495

6Slaven Koprivnica

1487

7Istra 1961

1485

8Lokomotiva Zagreb

1465

9Rudeš

1461

10HNK Gorica

1439

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo Diff	P(Higher wins)	Fair Odds	Typical Matchup
0	50.0%	2.00	Evenly matched
50	57.1%	1.75	Mid vs mid-lower
100	64.0%	1.56	Top-8 vs bottom-8
150	70.3%	1.42	Top-4 vs relegation
200	76.0%	1.32	Leader vs bottom half
250	80.8%	1.24	Leader vs bottom 3
300	84.9%	1.18	Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

Hajduk SplitDinamo ZagrebRijekaVaraždinOsijekSlaven Koprivnica

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#	Team	Elo	Peak	Δ	GP	W	D	L
1	Hajduk Split	1566	1567	+66	11	7	2	2
2	Dinamo Zagreb	1561	1561	+61	10	7	1	2
3	Rijeka	1529	1542	+29	10	5	2	3
4	Varaždin	1512	1546	+12	11	5	3	3
5	Osijek	1495	1549	-5	11	5	2	4
6	Slaven Koprivnica	1487	1500	-13	11	4	1	6
7	Istra 1961	1485	1500	-15	11	3	4	4
8	Lokomotiva Zagreb	1465	1530	-35	11	3	2	6
9	Rudeš	1461	1500	-39	11	3	1	7
10	HNK Gorica	1439	1500	-61	11	1	4	6

Elo Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	37	8	22%	+$22.10	+5.97%
Elo Favourite	43	25	58%	+$111.30	+25.88%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	4	2	50%	−$14.50	-36.25%
Elo Draw (>28%)	20	7	35%	+$67.20	+33.6%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	37	+$22.10	+5.97%	−$15.51	-73.13%	+$10.36	+2.81%
Elo Favourite	43	+$111.30	+25.88%	+$15.36	+3.83%	+$70.88	+15.31%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	4	−$14.50	-36.25%	$0.00	0%	−$12.51	-34.26%
Elo Draw (>28%)	20	+$67.20	+33.6%	−$16.44	-54.69%	+$85.77	+39.1%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:: Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:: E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:: R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:: Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:: Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

Upcoming Fixtures — Value Identified by Each Model Independently

Min EV threshold2%

Show models

1Value bets found

1Multi-model consensus

+5.7%Avg EV found

Consensus across 3 models · Odds: H 2.16 · D 3.68 · A 2.90

Home Win

34.8%

Mkt implied: 46.3%

EV -11.5%

Draw

25.1%

Mkt implied: 27.2%

EV -2.1%

Away Win

40.1%

Mkt implied: 34.5%

EV +5.7%

PPG: H 33% D 28% A 40%Dixon-Coles: H 28% D 21% A 51%Elo: H 44% D 26% A 30%

HNL Croatia Prediction Models

Flat Betting Model

Odds Range Filter

Market ROI Summary

Staking Plan Comparison

By Team Bets

PPG Model

Odds Range Filter

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

PPG Ratings — All Teams

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Worked Example — Dinamo Zagreb vs Rijeka

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Rijeka vs Dinamo Zagreb

Derived Markets

Correct Score — Top 12

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Team Attack & Defense Strength

How Poisson Predictions Work

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

Elo → Win Probability Table

Elo Rating History — Top 6

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Elo Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

How Elo Ratings Work

Value Scanner

Upcoming Fixtures — Value Identified by Each Model Independently