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Girabola Angola Prediction Models

2026/2027

Flat Betting Model

Matches w/ Odds

$10

Stake Per Bet

+67.86%

Best: Under 2.5

-100%

Worst: Away Underdog

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for Girabola Angola. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

Market	Bets	Wins	Win %	Staked	Return	P&L	ROI	Best Str.	Worst Str.
Home Bet	7	4	57.14%	$70	$73.2	+$3.20	+4.57%	2	1
Draw Bet	7	2	28.57%	$70	$62.8	−$7.20	-10.29%	1	2
Away Bet	7	1	14.29%	$70	$21	−$49.00	-70%	1	6
Over 2.5	7	1	14.29%	$70	$23	−$47.00	-67.14%	1	5
Under 2.5	7	6	85.71%	$70	$117.5	+$47.50	+67.86%	5	1
BTTS Yes	7	3	42.86%	$70	$68.6	−$1.40	-2%	2	2
Home Favorite	6	4	66.67%	$60	$73.2	+$13.20	+22%	2	1
Away Underdog	5	0	0%	$50	$0	−$50.00	-100%	0	5
Favorite	7	5	71.43%	$70	$94.2	+$24.20	+34.57%	2	1
Underdog	7	0	0%	$70	$0	−$70.00	-100%	0	7

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

Market	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Home Bet	7	+$3.20	+4.57%	−$13.04	-100%	+$3.28	+5.04%
Draw Bet	7	−$7.20	-10.29%	−$5.00	-100%	−$5.37	-7.43%
Away Bet	7	−$49.00	-70%	$0.00	0%	−$40.06	-46.05%
Over 2.5	7	−$47.00	-67.14%	$0.00	0%	−$46.49	-66.9%
Under 2.5	7	+$47.50	+67.86%	+$16.50	+61.11%	+$48.83	+60.82%
BTTS Yes	7	−$1.40	-2%	−$8.06	-100%	−$3.52	-4.94%
Home Favorite	6	+$13.20	+22%	$0.00	0%	+$8.55	+14.28%
Away Underdog	5	−$50.00	-100%	$0.00	0%	−$48.97	-100%
Favorite	7	+$24.20	+34.57%	+$10.00	+110.01%	+$17.67	+25.92%
Underdog	7	−$70.00	-100%	$0.00	0%	−$78.87	-100%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

Team	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
1º de Agosto	1	1	100%	+$6.50	+65%
Petro de Luanda	1	1	100%	+$3.80	+38%
Desportivo Huíla	2	1	50%	+$1.00	+5%
Académica do Lobito	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
Recreativo da Caála	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
Bravos do Maquis FC	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
1º de Maio	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
Recreativo do Libolo	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
Sporting de Cabinda	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
Wiliete	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
São Salvador	0	0	0%	$0.00	0%
Kabuscorp	3	1	33.33%	−$4.30	-14.33%
Interclube	3	1	33.33%	−$12.80	-42.67%
Sagrada Esperança	1	0	0%	−$10.00	-100%
Desportivo Lunda-Sul	1	0	0%	−$10.00	-100%
FC Luanda	2	0	0%	−$20.00	-100%

PPG Model

Teams

1.38

League Avg PPG

1.08

Home Factor

λ=0.85

WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for Girabola Angola. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	5	3	60%	+$2.00	+4%
PPG Home Pick	2	2	100%	+$11.00	+55%
PPG Away Pick	3	1	33.33%	−$9.00	-30%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	5	3	60%	+$2.00	+4%
PPG Value (fair < market)	6	1	16.67%	−$42.80	-71.33%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:: Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:: Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:: Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:: Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:: Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	5	+$2.00	+4%	$0.00	0%	+$14.95	+30.07%
PPG Home Pick	2	+$11.00	+55%	$0.00	0%	+$11.93	+53.12%
PPG Away Pick	3	−$9.00	-30%	$0.00	0%	+$2.57	+7.87%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	5	+$2.00	+4%	$0.00	0%	+$14.95	+30.07%
PPG Value (fair < market)	6	−$42.80	-71.33%	$0.00	0%	−$25.13	-59.37%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds	Result	✓
27 Oct	Recreativo da Caála vs 1º de Agosto	1º de Agosto	63.61%	1.57	1 – 0	✗
27 Oct	Bravos do Maquis FC vs Petro de Luanda	Bravos do Maquis FC	41.35%	2.42	1 – 1	✗
25 Oct	Desportivo Huíla vs Recreativo do Libolo	Desportivo Huíla	53.78%	1.86	2 – 1	✓
25 Oct	Desportivo Lunda-Sul vs Interclube	Interclube	64.26%	1.56	3 – 1	✗
24 Oct	Sagrada Esperança vs 1º de Maio	Sagrada Esperança	52.95%	1.89	3 – 0	✓

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds
16 Sept	São Salvador vs Petro de Luanda	Petro de Luanda	44%	2.27
20 Sept	Sagrada Esperança vs Petro de Luanda	***	0%	0
28 Oct	Wiliete vs São Salvador	🔒 Login or register for free to see predictions data.
30 Oct	Interclube vs Desportivo Huíla
31 Oct	Recreativo do Libolo vs Sagrada Esperança

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

Team	PPG ↓	H-PPG	A-PPG	WPPG	vs Avg
1Wiliete	2.67	3	2.33	2.52	+1.29
2Petro de Luanda	2	2.33	1.67	1.96	+0.62
31º de Agosto	2	3	1.25	1.69	+0.62
4Desportivo Huíla	2	1.75	2.25	2.23	+0.62
5Bravos do Maquis FC	1.88	1.6	2.33	1.66	+0.50
6Sagrada Esperança	1.83	2.5	0.5	1.92	+0.45
7Interclube	1.63	2.33	1.2	1.43	+0.25
8São Salvador	1.33	1.33	1.33	1.54	-0.05
9Recreativo do Libolo	1.13	1	1.2	0.97	-0.25
10Recreativo da Caála	1.13	0.75	1.5	1.28	-0.25
11Desportivo Lunda-Sul	1	1.25	0.67	1.19	-0.38
121º de Maio	1	1.25	0.75	0.87	-0.38
13Kabuscorp	0.86	1.67	0.25	0.78	-0.52
14FC Luanda	0.63	1	0.25	0.55	-0.75
15Sporting de Cabinda	0.57	0.5	0.67	0.7	-0.81
16Académica do Lobito	0.38	0.5	0.25	0.53	-1.00

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

1º de Agosto

PPG: 2WPPG: 1.69Gap: ↓ 0.31

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Desportivo Huíla

PPG: 2WPPG: 2.23Gap: ↑ 0.23

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Bravos do Maquis FC

PPG: 1.88WPPG: 1.66Gap: ↓ 0.22

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

São Salvador

PPG: 1.33WPPG: 1.54Gap: ↑ 0.21

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Interclube

PPG: 1.63WPPG: 1.43Gap: ↓ 0.20

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Worked Example — Recreativo da Caála vs 1º de Agosto

P(Recreativo da Caála) = 0.86 / (0.86+2.33) × 1.08

= 0.270 × 1.08 = 26.5% → Fair odds 3.77

P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)

= 9.89% → Fair odds 10.11

P(1º de Agosto) = 1 − 26.5% − 9.89%

= 63.61% → Fair odds 1.57

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

0.25

Home xG (λ)

0.79

Away xG (λ)

1.04

Total E[goals]

1.16

League Avg Home

0.84

League Avg Away

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — São Salvador vs Petro de Luanda

15 Sept · Each cell shows the probability of that exact scoreline. Dixon-Coles corrected (ρ = -0.13). · Upcoming

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	36.3%	27.0%	11.0%	2.9%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%
1	7.9%	7.9%	2.8%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2	1.1%	0.9%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Most likely High Medium Low

Derived Markets

Home Win

10.11%

Fair odds: 9.89

Draw

44.49%

Fair odds: 2.25

Away Win

45.39%

Fair odds: 2.2

Over 0.563.75%/ Under 36.25%Fair: 1.57

Over 1.528.8%/ Under 71.2%Fair: 3.47

Over 2.58.78%/ Under 91.22%Fair: 11.39

Over 3.52.15%/ Under 97.85%Fair: 46.47

Over 4.50.43%/ Under 99.57%Fair: 233.02

BTTS Yes12.99%Fair: 7.7

BTTS No87.01%Fair: 1.15

Correct Score — Top 12

10-0

36.25%D

20-1

27.02%A

30-2

11.03%A

41-0

7.93%H

51-1

7.89%D

60-3

2.9%A

71-2

2.76%A

82-0

1.1%H

92-1

0.87%H

101-3

0.73%A

110-4

0.57%A

122-2

0.34%D

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Where the low-score correction adds value

Plain Poisson

P(0-0) = 35.4%

P(1-0) = 8.8%

P(0-1) = 27.9%

P(1-1) = 7.0%

✗ Underestimates 0-0, 1-0, 0-1

Dixon-Coles (ρ correction)

P(0-0) = 36.3% (+0.9%)

P(1-0) = 7.9% (-0.9%)

P(0-1) = 27.0% (-0.9%)

P(1-1) = 7.9% (+0.9%)

✓ Fixes low-score underestimation

💡 Why does this matter? Draws in football are dominated by 0-0 and 1-1. Plain Poisson underprices these by 15–20%. Dixon-Coles corrects this, generating better ROI on draw markets.

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Poisson/Dixon-Coles model — xG computed only from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	2	1	50%	+$1.00	+5%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	1	1	100%	+$3.80	+38%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	1	1	100%	+$11.00	+110%
DC Draw (>28%)	2	0	0%	−$20.00	-100%
DC Over 2.5 Value	1	0	0%	−$10.00	-100%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Dixon-Coles bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	2	+$1.00	+5%	$0.00	0%	+$10.96	+37.73%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	1	+$3.80	+38%	$0.00	0%	+$3.80	+38%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	1	+$11.00	+110%	$0.00	0%	+$11.00	+110%
DC Draw (>28%)	2	−$20.00	-100%	$0.00	0%	−$23.33	-100%
DC Over 2.5 Value	1	−$10.00	-100%	$0.00	0%	−$10.00	-100%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

Team	Att (H)	Def (H)	Att (A)	Def (A)	H GP	A GP
Wiliete	2.59	0	1.59	0.57	3	3
Sagrada Esperança	1.72	0.6	0.6	1.72	4	2
1º de Agosto	1.72	1.19	1.19	0.86	3	4
Bravos do Maquis FC	0.86	0.48	1.98	0.86	5	3
Petro de Luanda	1.15	0	1.19	0.29	3	3
Desportivo Huíla	0.65	0.6	1.79	0.65	4	4
Interclube	1.44	0.79	0.95	1.03	3	5
1º de Maio	1.08	1.49	1.19	1.51	4	4
Recreativo do Libolo	0.57	1.19	1.43	1.9	3	5
FC Luanda	0.65	1.49	1.19	1.72	4	4
Recreativo da Caála	0.86	1.79	0.89	0.43	4	4
Desportivo Lunda-Sul	0.86	0.89	0.4	0.57	4	3
São Salvador	0.57	0.79	0.79	0.86	3	3
Kabuscorp	0.86	0.79	0.3	0.86	3	4
Sporting de Cabinda	0.43	1.79	0.4	0.57	4	3
Académica do Lobito	0.43	1.79	0	1.08	4	4

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:: Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:: P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:: Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:: Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:: Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1Wiliete

1570

2Petro de Luanda

1543

3Desportivo Huíla

1541

41º de Agosto

1535

5Bravos do Maquis FC

1532

6Sagrada Esperança

1523

7Interclube

1513

8São Salvador

1503

9Recreativo da Caála

1494

10Desportivo Lunda-Sul

1486

11Kabuscorp

1478

12Recreativo do Libolo

1478

131º de Maio

1471

14Sporting de Cabinda

1456

15FC Luanda

1444

16Académica do Lobito

1434

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo Diff	P(Higher wins)	Fair Odds	Typical Matchup
0	50.0%	2.00	Evenly matched
50	57.1%	1.75	Mid vs mid-lower
100	64.0%	1.56	Top-8 vs bottom-8
150	70.3%	1.42	Top-4 vs relegation
200	76.0%	1.32	Leader vs bottom half
250	80.8%	1.24	Leader vs bottom 3
300	84.9%	1.18	Wiliete vs Académica do Lobito

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

WilietePetro de LuandaDesportivo Huíla1º de AgostoBravos do Maquis FCSagrada Esperança

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#	Team	Elo	Peak	Δ	GP	W	D	L
1	Wiliete	1570	1571	+70	6	5	1	0
2	Petro de Luanda	1543	1543	+43	6	3	3	0
3	Desportivo Huíla	1541	1541	+41	8	5	1	2
4	1º de Agosto	1535	1554	+35	7	4	2	1
5	Bravos do Maquis FC	1532	1541	+32	8	4	3	1
6	Sagrada Esperança	1523	1523	+23	6	3	2	1
7	Interclube	1513	1531	+13	8	4	1	3
8	São Salvador	1503	1503	+3	6	2	2	2
9	Recreativo da Caála	1494	1504	-6	8	2	3	3
10	Desportivo Lunda-Sul	1486	1500	-14	7	1	4	2
11	Kabuscorp	1478	1503	-22	7	1	3	3
12	Recreativo do Libolo	1478	1519	-22	8	3	0	5
13	1º de Maio	1471	1500	-29	8	2	2	4
14	Sporting de Cabinda	1456	1500	-44	7	0	4	3
15	FC Luanda	1444	1500	-56	8	1	2	5
16	Académica do Lobito	1434	1500	-66	8	0	3	5

Elo Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	3	0	0%	−$30.00	-100%
Elo Favourite	4	2	50%	−$0.50	-1.25%
Elo Draw (>28%)	2	0	0%	−$20.00	-100%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	3	−$30.00	-100%	$0.00	0%	−$33.96	-100%
Elo Favourite	4	−$0.50	-1.25%	$0.00	0%	+$1.17	+2.59%
Elo Draw (>28%)	2	−$20.00	-100%	$0.00	0%	−$19.47	-100%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:: Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:: E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:: R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:: Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:: Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

No upcoming matches with odds available. Please check back later.

Girabola Angola Prediction Models

Flat Betting Model

Odds Range Filter

Market ROI Summary

Staking Plan Comparison

By Team Bets

PPG Model

Odds Range Filter

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

PPG Ratings — All Teams

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Worked Example — Recreativo da Caála vs 1º de Agosto

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — São Salvador vs Petro de Luanda

Derived Markets

Correct Score — Top 12

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Team Attack & Defense Strength

How Poisson Predictions Work

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

Elo → Win Probability Table

Elo Rating History — Top 6

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Elo Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

How Elo Ratings Work

Value Scanner