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First League Bulgaria Prediction Models

2026/2027

Flat Betting Model

Matches w/ Odds

$10

Stake Per Bet

+19.7%

Best: Under 2.5

-41.21%

Worst: Underdog

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for A PFG Bulgaria. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

Market	Bets	Wins	Win %	Staked	Return	P&L	ROI	Best Str.	Worst Str.
Home Bet	71	32	45.07%	$710	$638.3	−$71.70	-10.1%	7	8
Draw Bet	71	16	22.54%	$710	$592.4	−$117.60	-16.56%	2	20
Away Bet	71	23	32.39%	$710	$581	−$129.00	-18.17%	5	9
Over 2.5	69	33	47.83%	$690	$657.4	−$32.60	-4.72%	5	7
Under 2.5	69	36	52.17%	$690	$825.9	+$135.90	+19.7%	7	5
BTTS Yes	71	36	50.7%	$710	$716.5	+$6.50	+0.92%	4	5
Home Favorite	44	29	65.91%	$440	$497.6	+$57.60	+13.09%	7	3
Away Underdog	32	6	18.75%	$320	$246.2	−$73.80	-23.06%	2	7
Favorite	71	45	63.38%	$710	$801.9	+$91.90	+12.94%	5	3
Underdog	71	10	14.08%	$710	$417.4	−$292.60	-41.21%	2	18

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

Market	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Home Bet	71	−$71.70	-10.1%	−$76.07	-28.03%	+$27.12	+3.81%
Draw Bet	71	−$117.60	-16.56%	−$0.84	-100%	−$115.07	-15.36%
Away Bet	71	−$129.00	-18.17%	−$57.99	-49.79%	−$5.85	-0.78%
Over 2.5	69	−$32.60	-4.72%	−$25.82	-13.54%	−$27.50	-3.97%
Under 2.5	69	+$135.90	+19.7%	+$14.34	+17.76%	+$137.39	+18.56%
BTTS Yes	71	+$6.50	+0.92%	−$7.14	-7.88%	+$1.14	+0.16%
Home Favorite	44	+$57.60	+13.09%	−$32.83	-8.13%	+$67.52	+16.05%
Away Underdog	32	−$73.80	-23.06%	−$24.32	-93.68%	−$30.04	-9.04%
Favorite	71	+$91.90	+12.94%	+$36.10	+4.78%	+$90.88	+13.21%
Underdog	71	−$292.60	-41.21%	−$17.63	-84.27%	−$242.23	-30.73%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

Team	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
CSKA Sofia	11	9	81.82%	+$42.00	+38.18%
CSKA 1948 Sofia	10	7	70%	+$35.10	+35.1%
Levski Sofia	9	7	77.78%	+$14.00	+15.56%
Botev Plovdiv	11	6	54.55%	+$17.00	+15.45%
Septemvri Sofia	10	2	20%	+$12.00	+12%
Ludogorets Razgrad	10	7	70%	+$5.20	+5.2%
Dunav ot Ruse	11	3	27.27%	−$2.10	-1.91%
Arda Kardzhali	10	4	40%	−$22.70	-22.7%
Spartak Varna	10	2	20%	−$24.70	-24.7%
Botev Vratsa	10	2	20%	−$30.80	-30.8%
Slavia Sofia	10	2	20%	−$33.20	-33.2%
Cherno more Varna	10	2	20%	−$66.50	-66.5%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv	10	1	10%	−$72.50	-72.5%
Lokomotiv Sofia 1929	10	1	10%	−$73.50	-73.5%

PPG Model

Teams

1.39

League Avg PPG

1.08

Home Factor

λ=0.85

WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for A PFG Bulgaria. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	66	38	57.58%	+$45.20	+6.85%
PPG Home Pick	33	21	63.64%	+$14.10	+4.27%
PPG Away Pick	33	17	51.52%	+$31.10	+9.42%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	67	36	53.73%	−$28.10	-4.19%
PPG Value (fair < market)	71	32	45.07%	−$25.60	-3.61%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:: Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:: Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:: Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:: Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:: Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	66	+$45.20	+6.85%	−$5.73	-0.4%	+$46.05	+7.56%
PPG Home Pick	33	+$14.10	+4.27%	−$56.67	-21.41%	+$27.62	+9.15%
PPG Away Pick	33	+$31.10	+9.42%	−$24.79	-10.33%	+$15.72	+5.02%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	67	−$28.10	-4.19%	−$42.56	-3.15%	−$1.45	-0.23%
PPG Value (fair < market)	71	−$25.60	-3.61%	−$56.35	-4.3%	+$49.61	+8.09%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds	Result	✓
27 Oct	Arda Kardzhali vs Levski Sofia	Levski Sofia	51.65%	1.94	1 – 1	✗
27 Oct	Cherno more Varna vs Septemvri Sofia	Septemvri Sofia	39.98%	2.5	2 – 0	✗
26 Oct	CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets Razgrad	CSKA Sofia	41.83%	2.39	2 – 0	✓
26 Oct	Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia	Slavia Sofia	42.32%	2.36	0 – 0	✗
24 Oct	Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 vs Botev Vratsa	Lokomotiv Sofia 1929	40.89%	2.45	1 – 1	✗

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds
20 Sept	Levski Sofia vs Ludogorets Razgrad	Levski Sofia	46%	2.17
30 Oct	CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Spartak Varna	***	0%	0
30 Oct	Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 vs Botev Plovdiv	🔒 Login or register for free to see predictions data.
31 Oct	Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets Razgrad
31 Oct	Dunav ot Ruse vs Levski Sofia

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

Team	PPG ↓	H-PPG	A-PPG	WPPG	vs Avg
1Levski Sofia	2.64	3	2.33	2.38	+1.25
2CSKA Sofia	2.5	3	2	2.51	+1.11
3Ludogorets Razgrad	2.36	2.67	2	2.11	+0.97
4CSKA 1948 Sofia	2.08	2.57	1.4	2.02	+0.69
5Botev Plovdiv	1.58	2.17	1	1.71	+0.19
6Arda Kardzhali	1.5	1.83	1.17	1.18	+0.11
7Spartak Varna	1.08	1	1.17	0.98	-0.31
8Slavia Sofia	1	0.67	1.33	0.89	-0.39
9Dunav ot Ruse	0.92	0.83	1	1.34	-0.47
10Botev Vratsa	0.83	1	0.71	0.91	-0.56
11Lokomotiv Plovdiv	0.75	1.33	0.17	0.83	-0.64
12Cherno more Varna	0.75	1.17	0.33	0.99	-0.64
13Lokomotiv Sofia 1929	0.75	0.33	1.17	0.96	-0.64
14Septemvri Sofia	0.67	0.67	0.67	0.47	-0.72

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

Dunav ot Ruse

PPG: 0.92WPPG: 1.34Gap: ↑ 0.42

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Arda Kardzhali

PPG: 1.5WPPG: 1.18Gap: ↓ 0.32

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Levski Sofia

PPG: 2.64WPPG: 2.38Gap: ↓ 0.26

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Ludogorets Razgrad

PPG: 2.36WPPG: 2.11Gap: ↓ 0.25

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Cherno more Varna

PPG: 0.75WPPG: 0.99Gap: ↑ 0.24

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Worked Example — Arda Kardzhali vs Levski Sofia

P(Arda Kardzhali) = 1.55 / (1.55+2.8) × 1.08

= 0.356 × 1.08 = 33.51% → Fair odds 2.98

P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)

= 14.84% → Fair odds 6.74

P(Levski Sofia) = 1 − 33.51% − 14.84%

= 51.65% → Fair odds 1.94

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

2.23

Home xG (λ)

0.28

Away xG (λ)

2.51

Total E[goals]

1.51

League Avg Home

1.13

League Avg Away

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Levski Sofia vs Ludogorets Razgrad

19 Sept · Each cell shows the probability of that exact scoreline. Dixon-Coles corrected (ρ = -0.13). · Upcoming

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8.9%	1.6%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1	17.6%	5.8%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	20.4%	5.7%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	15.1%	4.2%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	8.4%	2.4%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5	3.8%	1.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	1.4%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Most likely High Medium Low

Derived Markets

Home Win

81.65%

Fair odds: 1.22

Market: 2.15 (46.5%)

Draw

15.49%

Fair odds: 6.45

Market: 3.40 (29.4%)

Away Win

2.85%

Fair odds: 35.03

Market: 3.75 (26.7%)

Over 0.591.14%/ Under 8.86%Fair: 1.1

Over 1.571.91%/ Under 28.09%Fair: 1.39

Over 2.545.44%/ Under 54.56%Fair: 2.2

Over 3.523.85%/ Under 76.15%Fair: 4.19

Over 4.510.3%/ Under 89.7%Fair: 9.71

BTTS Yes22.44%Fair: 4.46

BTTS No77.56%Fair: 1.29

Correct Score — Top 12

12-0

20.37%H

21-0

17.6%H

33-0

15.14%H

40-0

8.86%D

54-0

8.44%H

61-1

5.78%D

72-1

5.7%H

83-1

4.24%H

95-0

3.76%H

104-1

2.36%H

110-1

1.63%A

126-0

1.4%H

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Where the low-score correction adds value

Plain Poisson

P(0-0) = 8.1%

P(1-0) = 18.1%

P(0-1) = 2.3%

P(1-1) = 5.1%

✗ Underestimates 0-0, 1-0, 0-1

Dixon-Coles (ρ correction)

P(0-0) = 8.9% (+0.7%)

P(1-0) = 17.6% (-0.5%)

P(0-1) = 1.6% (-0.6%)

P(1-1) = 5.8% (+0.7%)

✓ Fixes low-score underestimation

💡 Why does this matter? Draws in football are dominated by 0-0 and 1-1. Plain Poisson underprices these by 15–20%. Dixon-Coles corrects this, generating better ROI on draw markets.

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Poisson/Dixon-Coles model — xG computed only from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	49	23	46.94%	+$75.10	+15.33%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	16	13	81.25%	+$43.70	+27.31%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	20	7	35%	−$56.20	-28.1%
DC Draw (>28%)	18	9	50%	+$152.20	+84.56%
DC Over 2.5 Value	25	10	40%	−$54.20	-21.68%
DC BTTS Value	13	4	30.77%	−$55.10	-42.38%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Dixon-Coles bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	49	+$75.10	+15.33%	−$35.81	-19.79%	+$71.56	+16.44%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	16	+$43.70	+27.31%	+$31.49	+19.72%	+$46.31	+30.06%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	20	−$56.20	-28.1%	−$9.71	-62.04%	−$78.44	-35.25%
DC Draw (>28%)	18	+$152.20	+84.56%	+$17.20	+20.8%	+$166.81	+83.67%
DC Over 2.5 Value	25	−$54.20	-21.68%	−$4.07	-100%	−$49.17	-19.86%
DC BTTS Value	13	−$55.10	-42.38%	$0.00	0%	−$54.65	-39.06%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

Team	Att (H)	Def (H)	Att (A)	Def (A)	H GP	A GP
CSKA Sofia	2.1	0.74	1.47	0.44	6	6
Levski Sofia	1.85	0.18	1.47	0.44	5	6
CSKA 1948 Sofia	1.7	0.88	1.24	0.79	7	5
Ludogorets Razgrad	1.43	0.44	1.42	0.79	6	5
Botev Plovdiv	0.99	0.88	1.18	1.32	6	6
Arda Kardzhali	1.1	0.88	0.88	1.32	6	6
Dunav ot Ruse	0.66	1.33	1.33	1.32	6	6
Cherno more Varna	0.99	1.62	0.59	1.21	6	6
Lokomotiv Sofia 1929	0.55	1.62	1.18	0.99	6	6
Spartak Varna	0.55	0.88	0.88	1.21	6	6
Septemvri Sofia	0.66	1.92	0.59	1.1	6	6
Botev Vratsa	0.26	0.88	1.01	1.51	5	7
Slavia Sofia	0.44	0.88	0.74	0.33	6	6
Lokomotiv Plovdiv	0.55	0.74	0.15	0.99	6	6

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:: Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:: P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:: Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:: Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:: Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1CSKA Sofia

1613

2Levski Sofia

1612

3Ludogorets Razgrad

1582

4CSKA 1948 Sofia

1557

5Botev Plovdiv

1520

6Arda Kardzhali

1507

7Slavia Sofia

1473

8Spartak Varna

1471

9Botev Vratsa

1459

10Dunav ot Ruse

1454

11Lokomotiv Sofia 1929

1452

12Cherno more Varna

1442

13Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1441

14Septemvri Sofia

1417

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo Diff	P(Higher wins)	Fair Odds	Typical Matchup
0	50.0%	2.00	Evenly matched
50	57.1%	1.75	Mid vs mid-lower
100	64.0%	1.56	Top-8 vs bottom-8
150	70.3%	1.42	Top-4 vs relegation
200	76.0%	1.32	Leader vs bottom half
250	80.8%	1.24	Leader vs bottom 3
300	84.9%	1.18	CSKA Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

CSKA SofiaLevski SofiaLudogorets RazgradCSKA 1948 SofiaBotev PlovdivArda Kardzhali

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#	Team	Elo	Peak	Δ	GP	W	D	L
1	CSKA Sofia	1613	1613	+113	12	9	3	0
2	Levski Sofia	1612	1614	+112	11	9	2	0
3	Ludogorets Razgrad	1582	1595	+82	11	8	2	1
4	CSKA 1948 Sofia	1557	1562	+57	12	8	1	3
5	Botev Plovdiv	1520	1532	+20	12	6	1	5
6	Arda Kardzhali	1507	1556	+7	12	5	3	4
7	Slavia Sofia	1473	1506	-27	12	2	6	4
8	Spartak Varna	1471	1529	-29	12	3	4	5
9	Botev Vratsa	1459	1500	-41	12	2	4	6
10	Dunav ot Ruse	1454	1500	-46	12	3	2	7
11	Lokomotiv Sofia 1929	1452	1503	-48	12	1	6	5
12	Cherno more Varna	1442	1503	-58	12	2	3	7
13	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	1441	1500	-59	12	2	3	7
14	Septemvri Sofia	1417	1500	-83	12	2	2	8

Elo Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	59	7	12%	−$287.30	-48.69%
Elo Favourite	69	37	54%	−$18.90	-2.74%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	9	7	78%	+$16.00	+17.78%
Elo Draw (>28%)	24	5	21%	−$58.80	-24.5%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	59	−$287.30	-48.69%	−$10.80	-100%	−$236.94	-40.69%
Elo Favourite	69	−$18.90	-2.74%	−$57.90	-19.47%	+$20.74	+2.98%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	9	+$16.00	+17.78%	−$34.43	-65.27%	+$22.46	+24.06%
Elo Draw (>28%)	24	−$58.80	-24.5%	$0.00	0%	−$56.16	-22.93%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:: Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:: E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:: R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:: Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:: Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

Upcoming Fixtures — Value Identified by Each Model Independently

Min EV threshold2%

Show models

2Value bets found

2Multi-model consensus

+7.9%Avg EV found

Consensus across 3 models · Odds: H 1.40 · D 4.45 · A 7.17

Home Win

63.8%

Mkt implied: 71.4%

EV -7.6%

Draw

16.1%

Mkt implied: 22.5%

EV -6.3%

Away Win

20.0%

Mkt implied: 13.9%

EV +6.1%

PPG: H 54% D 16% A 29%Dixon-Coles: H 80% D 13% A 7%Elo: H 57% D 19% A 24%

Consensus across 0 model · Odds: H 0.00 · A 0.00

Home Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Away Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

🔒

First League Bulgaria Prediction Models

Flat Betting Model

Odds Range Filter

Market ROI Summary

Staking Plan Comparison

By Team Bets

PPG Model

Odds Range Filter

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

PPG Ratings — All Teams

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Worked Example — Arda Kardzhali vs Levski Sofia

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Levski Sofia vs Ludogorets Razgrad

Derived Markets

Correct Score — Top 12

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Team Attack & Defense Strength

How Poisson Predictions Work

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

Elo → Win Probability Table

Elo Rating History — Top 6

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Elo Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

How Elo Ratings Work

Value Scanner

Upcoming Fixtures — Value Identified by Each Model Independently