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Europa League Prediction Models

2026/2027

Flat Betting Model

90
Matches w/ Odds
$10
Stake Per Bet
+48.29%
Best: Away Underdog
-26.54%
Worst: Draw Bet

Odds Range Filter

1.0
10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for UEFA Europa League Europe. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

MarketBetsWinsWin %StakedReturnP&LROIBest Str.Worst Str.Trend
Home Bet904145.56%$900$948.1+$48.10+5.34%68
Draw Bet901617.78%$900$661.1−$238.90-26.54%216
Away Bet903336.67%$900$973.6+$73.60+8.18%36
Over 2.5905763.33%$900$963.1+$63.10+7.01%114
Under 2.5903336.67%$900$813.7−$86.30-9.59%411
BTTS Yes904246.67%$900$733.3−$166.70-18.52%46
Home Favorite533260.38%$530$506.2−$23.80-4.49%72
Away Underdog31929.03%$310$459.7+$149.70+48.29%26
Favorite905257.78%$900$891.5−$8.50-0.94%63
Underdog902224.44%$900$1030.2+$130.20+14.47%212

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

MarketBetsFlat P&LFlat ROIKelly ¼ P&LKelly ¼ ROIConf P&LConf ROIComparison
Home Bet90+$48.10+5.34%−$7.09-1.5%−$22.00-2.43%
Draw Bet90−$238.90-26.54%−$17.25-73.75%−$213.96-23.96%
Away Bet90+$73.60+8.18%−$62.80-46.82%+$90.77+9.41%
Over 2.590+$63.10+7.01%+$3.90+10.38%+$60.12+6.43%
Under 2.590−$86.30-9.59%−$21.99-8.29%−$97.30-10.47%
BTTS Yes90−$166.70-18.52%−$0.17-100%−$169.60-18.29%
Home Favorite53−$23.80-4.49%−$13.45-11.72%−$10.92-2.03%
Away Underdog31+$149.70+48.29%−$22.77-19.22%+$197.99+65.71%
Favorite90−$8.50-0.94%+$20.27+18.53%−$7.31-0.79%
Underdog90+$130.20+14.47%−$51.25-29.39%+$148.03+16.05%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:
Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:
Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:
Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

By Team Bets

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

TeamBetsWinsWin %P&LROI
Kauno Žalgiris2150%+$80.00+400%
OFI5360%+$137.80+275.6%
Ferencváros7685.71%+$109.10+155.86%
Anderlecht7571.43%+$79.50+113.57%
Torreense3133.33%+$29.40+98%
Olympiakos Piraeus33100%+$29.00+96.67%
AFC Bournemouth33100%+$27.50+91.67%
Maccabi Tel Aviv2150%+$16.00+80%
Omonia Nicosia5360%+$38.60+77.2%
NEC3133.33%+$20.00+66.67%
Levski Sofia3133.33%+$15.00+50%
Salzburg7457.14%+$34.10+48.71%
Beşiktaş7571.43%+$32.40+46.29%
Olympique Lyonnais3266.67%+$13.50+45%
Benfica7685.71%+$31.10+44.43%
Union Saint-Gilloise3266.67%+$12.00+40%
Bayer Leverkusen33100%+$10.60+35.33%
Sturm Graz3133.33%+$7.00+23.33%
Juventus FC3266.67%+$4.90+16.33%
Sunderland3266.67%+$1.10+3.67%
CSKA Sofia4125%−$0.50-1.25%
Jagiellonia Białystok5360%−$1.40-2.8%
Sint-Truiden2150%−$0.60-3%
AZ3266.67%−$2.20-7.33%
Crvena zvezda2150%−$2.40-12%
Celta de Vigo3133.33%−$4.00-13.33%
Ararat-Armenia5120%−$12.20-24.4%
Dinamo Zagreb3133.33%−$10.00-33.33%
Milan3133.33%−$10.00-33.33%
Hoffenheim3133.33%−$10.50-35%
Sparta Praha3133.33%−$13.40-44.67%
Real Sociedad3133.33%−$15.00-50%
Crystal Palace3133.33%−$15.50-51.67%
Viktoria Plzeň5120%−$28.20-56.4%
Rennes3133.33%−$17.80-59.33%
Lech Poznań5120%−$33.20-66.4%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë200%−$20.00-100%
Hradec Králové200%−$20.00-100%
AGF200%−$20.00-100%
Olympique Marseille300%−$30.00-100%
PAOK200%−$20.00-100%
Hapoel Be'er Sheva300%−$30.00-100%
Kairat200%−$20.00-100%
Lillestrøm500%−$50.00-100%
Górnik Zabrze200%−$20.00-100%
Celtic300%−$30.00-100%
Hearts200%−$20.00-100%
Celje300%−$30.00-100%
Mjällby200%−$20.00-100%
Thun200%−$20.00-100%
Trabzonspor200%−$20.00-100%
Iberia 1999200%−$20.00-100%
Universitatea Craiova200%−$20.00-100%
Pafos200%−$20.00-100%

PPG Model

54
Teams
1.22
League Avg PPG
1.08
Home Factor
λ=0.85
WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0
10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for UEFA Europa League Europe. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

StrategyBetsWinsWin %P&LROITrend
PPG Favorite (1×2)482552.08%+$64.50+13.44%
PPG Home Pick241458.33%+$21.90+9.13%
PPG Away Pick241145.83%+$42.60+17.75%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)482552.08%+$64.50+13.44%
PPG Value (fair < market)521936.54%−$25.80-4.96%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:
Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:
Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:
Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:
Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:
Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

StrategyBetsFlat P&LFlat ROIKelly ¼ P&LKelly ¼ ROIConf P&LConf ROIComparison
PPG Favorite (1×2)48+$64.50+13.44%+$15.05+8.45%+$19.16+3.69%
PPG Home Pick24+$21.90+9.13%−$29.47-27.98%+$11.42+4.85%
PPG Away Pick24+$42.60+17.75%−$2.08-4.93%+$0.14+0.05%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)48+$64.50+13.44%+$15.05+8.45%+$19.16+3.69%
PPG Value (fair < market)52−$25.80-4.96%−$52.94-26.35%−$21.58-4.46%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:
Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:
Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:
Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

DateMatchPPG PickProbFair OddsResult✓
22 OctViktoria Plzeň vs Levski SofiaViktoria Plzeň53.96%1.851 – 2✗
22 OctHoffenheim vs Olympique LyonnaisOlympique Lyonnais95%1.053 – 0✗
22 OctBeşiktaş vs Crystal PalaceBeşiktaş58.15%1.722 – 2✗
22 OctAFC Bournemouth vs MilanAFC Bournemouth63.49%1.573 – 0✓
22 OctOlympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta PrahaOlympiakos Piraeus54.98%1.821 – 0✓

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

TeamPPG ↓H-PPGA-PPGWPPGvs AvgStrength
1Olympiakos Piraeus3333+1.78
2Bayer Leverkusen3333+1.78
3AFC Bournemouth3333+1.78
4Ferencváros2.7132.332.8+1.49
5Benfica2.7132.52.8+1.49
6Sunderland2.33322.22+1.11
7Juventus FC2.33232.22+1.11
8Union Saint-Gilloise2.33232.34+1.11
9Beşiktaş2.292.522.15+1.07
10Anderlecht2.1422.251.96+0.92
11Salzburg2221.8+0.78
12AZ231.52.16+0.78
13Olympique Lyonnais231.51.83+0.78
14Jagiellonia Białystok1.821.51.61+0.58
15OFI1.821.51.5+0.58
16Omonia Nicosia1.821.51.77+0.58
17Rennes1.67311.66+0.45
18Maccabi Tel Aviv1.5031.62+0.28
19Kauno Žalgiris1.5301.62+0.28
20Sint-Truiden1.5301.38+0.28
21Crvena zvezda1.5301.38+0.28
22Sparta Praha1.3311.51.17+0.11
23Dinamo Zagreb1.331.511.27+0.11
24Sturm Graz1.33201.45+0.11
25Levski Sofia1.33021.5+0.11
26NEC1.3311.51.5+0.11
27Real Sociedad1.33021.5+0.11
28Crystal Palace1.3330.51.23+0.11
29Egnatia Rrogozhinë1111-0.22
30Lech Poznań11.330.50.86-0.22
31Celta de Vigo101.51.17-0.22
32Milan101.50.99-0.22
33Hoffenheim11.501.17-0.22
34Torreense101.50.84-0.22
35Ararat-Armenia0.810.50.64-0.42
36CSKA Sofia0.7501.50.58-0.47
37Lillestrøm0.60.3310.54-0.62
38Viktoria Plzeň0.6100.5-0.62
39Górnik Zabrze0.5100.54-0.72
40Pafos0.5100.54-0.72
41Hearts0.5100.54-0.72
42Universitatea Craiova0.5100.46-0.72
43Thun0.5100.54-0.72
44Hapoel Be'er Sheva0.33100.28-0.89
45Celje0.330.500.39-0.89
46Hradec Králové0000-1.22
47PAOK0000-1.22
48Kairat0000-1.22
49Mjällby0000-1.22
50Iberia 19990000-1.22
51Trabzonspor0000-1.22
52AGF0000-1.22
53Olympique Marseille0000-1.22
54Celtic0000-1.22

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

OFI
PPG: 1.8WPPG: 1.5Gap: ↓ 0.30
Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG
Salzburg
PPG: 2WPPG: 1.8Gap: ↓ 0.20
Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG
Jagiellonia Białystok
PPG: 1.8WPPG: 1.61Gap: ↓ 0.19
Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG
Anderlecht
PPG: 2.14WPPG: 1.96Gap: ↓ 0.18
Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG
CSKA Sofia
PPG: 0.75WPPG: 0.58Gap: ↓ 0.17
Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Worked Example — Viktoria Plzeň vs Levski Sofia

Viktoria Plzeň PPG
0.75
vs
Levski Sofia PPG
0.5
P(Viktoria Plzeň) = 0.75 / (0.75+0.5) × 1.08
= 0.600 × 1.08 = 53.96% → Fair odds 1.85
P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)
= 20.1% → Fair odds 4.98
P(Levski Sofia) = 1 − 53.96% − 20.1%
= 25.94% → Fair odds 3.85

Poisson / Correct Score

Not enough data yet.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1Benfica
1588
2Ferencváros
1581
3Bayer Leverkusen
1550
4Beşiktaş
1550
5Olympiakos Piraeus
1544
6AFC Bournemouth
1543
7Anderlecht
1541
8Salzburg
1538
9Sunderland
1533
10Juventus FC
1527
11Union Saint-Gilloise
1526
12Rennes
1521
13AZ
1519
14Olympique Lyonnais
1518
15Omonia Nicosia
1515
16Jagiellonia Białystok
1509
17OFI
1509
18Crystal Palace
1506
19Real Sociedad
1505
20Levski Sofia
1505
21NEC
1504
22Kauno Žalgiris
1504
23Sparta Praha
1503
24Maccabi Tel Aviv
1502
25Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1500
26Sint-Truiden
1499
27Crvena zvezda
1499
28Sturm Graz
1497
29Dinamo Zagreb
1497
30Milan
1493
31Torreense
1490
32Celta de Vigo
1488
33Hoffenheim
1488
34Górnik Zabrze
1485
35Pafos
1485
36Hearts
1485
37Thun
1485
38Universitatea Craiova
1484
39Lech Poznań
1482
40Kairat
1472
41Hapoel Be'er Sheva
1472
42Mjällby
1471
43Trabzonspor
1471
44AGF
1470
45Hradec Králové
1470
46PAOK
1470
47Celje
1469
48Iberia 1999
1469
49CSKA Sofia
1468
50Lillestrøm
1466
51Ararat-Armenia
1466
52Olympique Marseille
1458
53Celtic
1454
54Viktoria Plzeň
1454

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo DiffP(Higher wins)Fair OddsTypical Matchup
050.0%2.00Evenly matched
5057.1%1.75Mid vs mid-lower
10064.0%1.56Top-8 vs bottom-8
15070.3%1.42Top-4 vs relegation
20076.0%1.32Leader vs bottom half
25080.8%1.24Leader vs bottom 3
30084.9%1.18Benfica vs Viktoria Plzeň

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

150315511598
BenficaFerencvárosBayer LeverkusenBeşiktaşOlympiakos PiraeusAFC Bournemouth

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#TeamEloPeakΔGPWDL
1Benfica15881588+887610
2Ferencváros15811581+817610
3Bayer Leverkusen15501550+503300
4Beşiktaş15501555+507511
5Olympiakos Piraeus15441544+443300
6AFC Bournemouth15431543+433300
7Anderlecht15411558+417502
8Salzburg15381561+387421
9Sunderland15331533+333210
10Juventus FC15271531+273210
11Union Saint-Gilloise15261526+263210
12Rennes15211521+213120
13AZ15191519+193201
14Olympique Lyonnais15181534+183201
15Omonia Nicosia15151532+155302
16Jagiellonia Białystok15091531+95302
17OFI15091542+95302
18Crystal Palace15061514+63111
19Real Sociedad15051505+53111
20Levski Sofia15051505+53111
21NEC15041504+43111
22Kauno Žalgiris15041504+42101
23Sparta Praha15031520+33111
24Maccabi Tel Aviv15021502+22101
25Egnatia Rrogozhinë15001500+02020
26Sint-Truiden14991513-12101
27Crvena zvezda14991513-12101
28Sturm Graz14971500-33111
29Dinamo Zagreb14971518-33111
30Milan14931505-73102
31Torreense14901519-103102
32Celta de Vigo14881500-123102
33Hoffenheim14881500-123102
34Górnik Zabrze14851500-152011
35Pafos14851500-152011
36Hearts14851500-152011
37Thun14851500-152011
38Universitatea Craiova14841500-162011
39Lech Poznań14821515-185122
40Kairat14721500-282002
41Hapoel Be'er Sheva14721500-283012
42Mjällby14711500-292002
43Trabzonspor14711500-292002
44AGF14701500-302002
45Hradec Králové14701500-302002
46PAOK14701500-302002
47Celje14691500-313012
48Iberia 199914691500-312002
49CSKA Sofia14681519-324103
50Lillestrøm14661503-345032
51Ararat-Armenia14661516-345113
52Olympique Marseille14581500-423003
53Celtic14541500-463003
54Viktoria Plzeň14541501-465104

Elo Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.

StrategyBetsWinsWin %P&LROITrend
Elo Value (edge > 3%)19421%−$38.90-20.47%
Elo Favourite20840%−$48.80-24.4%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)11100%+$9.10+91%
Elo Draw (>28%)5240%+$31.00+62%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

StrategyBetsFlat P&LFlat ROIKelly ¼ P&LKelly ¼ ROIConf P&LConf ROIComparison
Elo Value (edge > 3%)19−$38.90-20.47%−$27.06-62.22%−$24.70-12.53%
Elo Favourite20−$48.80-24.4%−$31.51-31.94%−$31.95-18.39%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)1+$9.10+91%$0.000%+$9.10+91%
Elo Draw (>28%)5+$31.00+62%$0.000%+$37.89+73.8%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:
Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:
Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:
Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:
Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:
E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:
R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:
Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:
Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

No upcoming matches with odds available. Please check back later.