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Eredivisie Netherlands Prediction Models

2026/2027

Flat Betting Model

Matches w/ Odds

$10

Stake Per Bet

+47.27%

Best: Draw Bet

-35.81%

Worst: Home Favorite

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for Eredivisie Netherlands. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

Market	Bets	Wins	Win %	Staked	Return	P&L	ROI	Best Str.	Worst Str.
Home Bet	90	28	31.11%	$900	$595.4	−$304.60	-33.84%	3	15
Draw Bet	90	26	28.89%	$900	$1325.4	+$425.40	+47.27%	2	11
Away Bet	90	36	40%	$900	$944.9	+$44.90	+4.99%	4	11
Over 2.5	90	66	73.33%	$900	$1035.8	+$135.80	+15.09%	21	4
Under 2.5	90	24	26.67%	$900	$729.5	−$170.50	-18.94%	4	21
BTTS Yes	90	65	72.22%	$900	$996.2	+$96.20	+10.69%	12	3
Home Favorite	57	23	40.35%	$570	$365.9	−$204.10	-35.81%	3	5
Away Underdog	24	4	16.67%	$240	$261.5	+$21.50	+8.96%	1	9
Favorite	90	47	52.22%	$900	$810.6	−$89.40	-9.93%	5	4
Underdog	90	18	20%	$900	$755.2	−$144.80	-16.09%	2	16

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

Market	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Home Bet	90	−$304.60	-33.84%	−$33.24	-45.4%	−$316.47	-34.73%
Draw Bet	90	+$425.40	+47.27%	+$84.49	+56.19%	+$304.91	+33.86%
Away Bet	90	+$44.90	+4.99%	−$81.35	-34.44%	+$158.15	+16.92%
Over 2.5	90	+$135.80	+15.09%	+$288.88	+14.61%	+$109.73	+11.89%
Under 2.5	90	−$170.50	-18.94%	−$1.28	-15.92%	−$180.76	-20.73%
BTTS Yes	90	+$96.20	+10.69%	+$42.33	+8.04%	+$92.55	+10.06%
Home Favorite	57	−$204.10	-35.81%	−$6.84	-95.26%	−$199.43	-34.24%
Away Underdog	24	+$21.50	+8.96%	−$8.54	-43.44%	+$1.10	+0.44%
Favorite	90	−$89.40	-9.93%	−$7.63	-3.85%	−$115.63	-12.6%
Underdog	90	−$144.80	-16.09%	−$44.84	-72.89%	−$100.94	-11.06%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

Team	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Fortuna Sittard	10	5	50%	+$60.60	+60.6%
Utrecht	10	3	30%	+$25.30	+25.3%
Cambuur	10	3	30%	+$18.50	+18.5%
Feyenoord	10	7	70%	+$12.80	+12.8%
Twente	10	6	60%	+$12.20	+12.2%
AZ	10	6	60%	+$1.40	+1.4%
PSV	10	6	60%	−$3.80	-3.8%
Heerenveen	10	4	40%	−$6.10	-6.1%
Groningen	10	4	40%	−$9.10	-9.1%
Ajax	10	6	60%	−$9.20	-9.2%
PEC Zwolle	10	2	20%	−$11.50	-11.5%
Excelsior	10	3	30%	−$24.90	-24.9%
ADO Den Haag	10	1	10%	−$25.00	-25%
Telstar	10	1	10%	−$32.00	-32%
Go Ahead Eagles	10	3	30%	−$49.40	-49.4%
Sparta Rotterdam	10	2	20%	−$53.20	-53.2%
NEC	10	2	20%	−$66.30	-66.3%
Willem II	10	0	0%	−$100.00	-100%

PPG Model

Teams

1.36

League Avg PPG

1.08

Home Factor

λ=0.85

WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for Eredivisie Netherlands. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	74	37	50%	−$55.10	-7.45%
PPG Home Pick	35	15	42.86%	−$125.30	-35.8%
PPG Away Pick	39	22	56.41%	+$70.20	+18%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	77	37	48.05%	−$77.80	-10.1%
PPG Value (fair < market)	79	26	32.91%	−$135.00	-17.09%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:: Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:: Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:: Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:: Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:: Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	74	−$55.10	-7.45%	−$43.72	-29.49%	−$41.48	-5.32%
PPG Home Pick	35	−$125.30	-35.8%	−$5.56	-100%	−$115.36	-29.08%
PPG Away Pick	39	+$70.20	+18%	+$30.74	+6.27%	+$78.72	+20.17%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	77	−$77.80	-10.1%	−$43.24	-32.25%	−$66.00	-8.21%
PPG Value (fair < market)	79	−$135.00	-17.09%	−$53.41	-62.64%	−$114.79	-14.57%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds	Result	✓
25 Oct	AZ vs Twente	AZ	47.5%	2.11	0 – 2	✗
25 Oct	Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax	Ajax	54.85%	1.82	1 – 2	✓
25 Oct	PSV vs Feyenoord	PSV	39.97%	2.5	1 – 1	✗
25 Oct	NEC vs Groningen	Groningen	43.22%	2.31	2 – 2	✗
25 Oct	Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior	Fortuna Sittard	52.19%	1.92	1 – 0	✓

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds
31 Oct	Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard	Feyenoord	51.39%	1.95
31 Oct	Heerenveen vs NEC	***	0%	0
31 Oct	PSV vs Willem II	🔒 Login or register for free to see predictions data.
31 Oct	Cambuur vs Go Ahead Eagles
31 Oct	Ajax vs AZ

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

Team	PPG ↓	H-PPG	A-PPG	WPPG	vs Avg
1Feyenoord	2.4	2	2.67	2.38	+1.04
2Ajax	2.1	1.2	3	2.19	+0.74
3PSV	2	2.2	1.8	1.72	+0.64
4AZ	2	2	2	1.52	+0.64
5Twente	2	2.4	1.6	1.98	+0.64
6Fortuna Sittard	1.8	1.4	2.2	1.85	+0.44
7Groningen	1.5	1.4	1.6	1.4	+0.14
8Heerenveen	1.5	1.4	1.6	1.73	+0.14
9Go Ahead Eagles	1.4	2.2	0.6	1.35	+0.04
10Cambuur	1.2	0.8	1.6	1.61	-0.16
11Utrecht	1.2	1	1.4	1.5	-0.16
12Excelsior	1.1	0.75	1.33	0.76	-0.26
13NEC	1.1	0.67	1.75	1.02	-0.26
14Sparta Rotterdam	0.9	0.83	1	0.91	-0.46
15PEC Zwolle	0.8	0.6	1	0.93	-0.56
16Telstar	0.6	0.4	0.8	0.43	-0.76
17ADO Den Haag	0.6	0.8	0.4	0.8	-0.76
18Willem II	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.14	-1.16

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

PPG: 2WPPG: 1.52Gap: ↓ 0.48

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Cambuur

PPG: 1.2WPPG: 1.61Gap: ↑ 0.41

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Excelsior

PPG: 1.1WPPG: 0.76Gap: ↓ 0.34

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Utrecht

PPG: 1.2WPPG: 1.5Gap: ↑ 0.30

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

PSV

PPG: 2WPPG: 1.72Gap: ↓ 0.28

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Worked Example — AZ vs Twente

P(AZ) = 2.22 / (2.22+1.89) × 1.08

= 0.540 × 1.08 = 47.5% → Fair odds 2.11

P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)

= 22.82% → Fair odds 4.38

P(Twente) = 1 − 47.5% − 22.82%

= 29.69% → Fair odds 3.37

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

2.5

Home xG (λ)

1.08

Away xG (λ)

3.58

Total E[goals]

1.76

League Avg Home

2.04

League Avg Away

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard

30 Oct · Each cell shows the probability of that exact scoreline. Dixon-Coles corrected (ρ = -0.13). · Upcoming

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	3.8%	2.1%	1.6%	0.6%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
1	6.1%	8.6%	4.1%	1.5%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
2	8.8%	9.5%	5.2%	1.9%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
3	7.4%	8.0%	4.3%	1.6%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
4	4.6%	5.0%	2.7%	1.0%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%
5	2.3%	2.5%	1.3%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
6	1.0%	1.0%	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%

Most likely High Medium Low

Derived Markets

Home Win

66.86%

Fair odds: 1.5

Draw

19.44%

Fair odds: 5.14

Away Win

13.7%

Fair odds: 7.3

Over 0.596.18%/ Under 3.82%Fair: 1.04

Over 1.588.04%/ Under 11.96%Fair: 1.14

Over 2.568.92%/ Under 31.08%Fair: 1.45

Over 3.547.3%/ Under 52.7%Fair: 2.11

Over 4.527.94%/ Under 72.06%Fair: 3.58

BTTS Yes61.53%Fair: 1.63

BTTS No38.47%Fair: 2.6

Correct Score — Top 12

12-1

9.54%H

22-0

8.84%H

31-1

8.63%D

43-1

7.95%H

53-0

7.36%H

61-0

6.08%H

72-2

5.15%D

84-1

4.97%H

94-0

4.6%H

103-2

4.3%H

111-2

4.12%A

120-0

3.82%D

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Where the low-score correction adds value

Plain Poisson

P(0-0) = 2.8%

P(1-0) = 7.0%

P(0-1) = 3.0%

P(1-1) = 7.5%

✗ Underestimates 0-0, 1-0, 0-1

Dixon-Coles (ρ correction)

P(0-0) = 3.8% (+1.0%)

P(1-0) = 6.1% (-0.9%)

P(0-1) = 2.1% (-0.9%)

P(1-1) = 8.6% (+1.1%)

✓ Fixes low-score underestimation

💡 Why does this matter? Draws in football are dominated by 0-0 and 1-1. Plain Poisson underprices these by 15–20%. Dixon-Coles corrects this, generating better ROI on draw markets.

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Poisson/Dixon-Coles model — xG computed only from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	45	18	40%	+$77.70	+17.27%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	13	8	61.54%	−$20.90	-16.08%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	23	12	52.17%	+$17.30	+7.52%
DC Draw (>28%)	8	3	37.5%	+$42.50	+53.13%
DC Over 2.5 Value	19	12	63.16%	+$3.70	+1.95%
DC BTTS Value	11	8	72.73%	+$13.80	+12.55%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Dixon-Coles bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	45	+$77.70	+17.27%	−$10.87	-5.92%	+$62.91	+13.53%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	13	−$20.90	-16.08%	−$15.53	-76.46%	−$7.83	-6.12%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	23	+$17.30	+7.52%	−$23.32	-26.72%	+$25.07	+10.45%
DC Draw (>28%)	8	+$42.50	+53.13%	−$2.14	-10.5%	+$48.58	+60.33%
DC Over 2.5 Value	19	+$3.70	+1.95%	−$1.75	-2.37%	−$2.37	-1.19%
DC BTTS Value	11	+$13.80	+12.55%	−$9.72	-56.94%	+$11.47	+10.31%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

Team	Att (H)	Def (H)	Att (A)	Def (A)	H GP	A GP
Feyenoord	1.56	0.49	1.72	0.66	4	6
Ajax	1.25	0.88	1.76	0.45	5	5
PSV	1.59	0.49	1.37	0.91	5	5
Groningen	1.25	1.08	1.27	1.14	5	5
Go Ahead Eagles	1.59	0.78	0.88	1.7	5	5
AZ	1.02	0.49	1.08	0.8	5	5
Cambuur	0.91	1.47	1.08	0.8	5	5
Twente	1.14	0.49	0.88	0.57	5	5
Heerenveen	0.8	0.49	1.08	0.91	5	5
NEC	0.85	0.98	0.98	0.85	6	4
Fortuna Sittard	0.68	0.88	1.08	0.91	5	5
Sparta Rotterdam	0.85	1.14	0.98	1.42	6	4
Utrecht	1.02	1.47	0.78	1.36	5	5
Excelsior	0.71	1.23	0.9	0.85	4	6
ADO Den Haag	0.91	1.18	0.49	1.25	5	5
Telstar	0.91	1.47	0.39	0.68	5	5
PEC Zwolle	0.57	1.37	0.59	1.02	5	5
Willem II	0.45	1.57	0.59	1.82	5	5

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:: Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:: P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:: Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:: Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:: Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1Feyenoord

1598

2Ajax

1569

3Twente

1554

4PSV

1551

5AZ

1543

6Fortuna Sittard

1540

7Heerenveen

1516

8Groningen

1513

9Go Ahead Eagles

1502

10Utrecht

1497

11Cambuur

1493

12NEC

1483

13Excelsior

1470

14Sparta Rotterdam

1454

15PEC Zwolle

1451

16ADO Den Haag

1442

17Telstar

1431

18Willem II

1393

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo Diff	P(Higher wins)	Fair Odds	Typical Matchup
0	50.0%	2.00	Evenly matched
50	57.1%	1.75	Mid vs mid-lower
100	64.0%	1.56	Top-8 vs bottom-8
150	70.3%	1.42	Top-4 vs relegation
200	76.0%	1.32	Leader vs bottom half
250	80.8%	1.24	Leader vs bottom 3
300	84.9%	1.18	Feyenoord vs Willem II

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

FeyenoordAjaxTwentePSVAZFortuna Sittard

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#	Team	Elo	Peak	Δ	GP	W	D	L
1	Feyenoord	1598	1598	+98	10	7	3	0
2	Ajax	1569	1569	+69	10	6	3	1
3	Twente	1554	1556	+54	10	6	2	2
4	PSV	1551	1575	+51	10	6	2	2
5	AZ	1543	1578	+43	10	6	2	2
6	Fortuna Sittard	1540	1540	+40	10	5	3	2
7	Heerenveen	1516	1516	+16	10	4	3	3
8	Groningen	1513	1531	+13	10	4	3	3
9	Go Ahead Eagles	1502	1527	+2	10	3	5	2
10	Utrecht	1497	1503	-3	10	3	3	4
11	Cambuur	1493	1500	-7	10	3	3	4
12	NEC	1483	1516	-17	10	2	5	3
13	Excelsior	1470	1532	-30	10	3	2	5
14	Sparta Rotterdam	1454	1502	-46	10	2	3	5
15	PEC Zwolle	1451	1500	-49	10	2	2	6
16	ADO Den Haag	1442	1500	-58	10	1	3	6
17	Telstar	1431	1519	-69	10	1	3	6
18	Willem II	1393	1500	-107	10	0	2	8

Elo Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	67	18	27%	+$290.30	+43.33%
Elo Favourite	72	25	35%	−$258.50	-35.9%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	9	5	56%	−$27.70	-30.78%
Elo Draw (>28%)	26	10	38%	+$165.20	+63.54%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	67	+$290.30	+43.33%	+$46.23	+48.1%	+$128.10	+18.95%
Elo Favourite	72	−$258.50	-35.9%	−$31.56	-90.43%	−$285.63	-35.23%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	9	−$27.70	-30.78%	$0.00	0%	−$22.30	-25.69%
Elo Draw (>28%)	26	+$165.20	+63.54%	+$31.58	+61.62%	+$182.74	+67.02%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:: Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:: E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:: R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:: Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:: Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

No upcoming matches with odds available. Please check back later.

Eredivisie Netherlands Prediction Models

Flat Betting Model

Odds Range Filter

Market ROI Summary

Staking Plan Comparison

By Team Bets

PPG Model

Odds Range Filter

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

PPG Ratings — All Teams

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Worked Example — AZ vs Twente

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard

Derived Markets

Correct Score — Top 12

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Team Attack & Defense Strength

How Poisson Predictions Work

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

Elo → Win Probability Table

Elo Rating History — Top 6

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Elo Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

How Elo Ratings Work

Value Scanner