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Eliteserien Norway Prediction Models

2026

Flat Betting Model

Matches w/ Odds

$10

Stake Per Bet

+12.05%

Best: Underdog

-17.1%

Worst: Draw Bet

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for Eliteserien Norway. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

Market	Bets	Wins	Win %	Staked	Return	P&L	ROI	Best Str.	Worst Str.
Home Bet	84	39	46.43%	$840	$809.8	−$30.20	-3.6%	5	5
Draw Bet	84	17	20.24%	$840	$696.4	−$143.60	-17.1%	2	8
Away Bet	84	28	33.33%	$840	$936.2	+$96.20	+11.45%	3	7
Over 2.5	78	53	67.95%	$780	$815.4	+$35.40	+4.54%	5	3
Under 2.5	78	25	32.05%	$780	$655.4	−$124.60	-15.97%	3	5
BTTS Yes	84	55	65.48%	$840	$854.7	+$14.70	+1.75%	7	5
Home Favorite	58	33	56.9%	$580	$572.5	−$7.50	-1.29%	4	4
Away Underdog	26	5	19.23%	$260	$278.2	+$18.20	+7%	2	8
Favorite	84	46	54.76%	$840	$804.8	−$35.20	-4.19%	5	7
Underdog	84	21	25%	$840	$941.2	+$101.20	+12.05%	2	9

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

Market	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Home Bet	84	−$30.20	-3.6%	−$15.17	-11.15%	−$17.58	-1.97%
Draw Bet	84	−$143.60	-17.1%	−$19.98	-95.92%	−$97.72	-11.68%
Away Bet	84	+$96.20	+11.45%	−$4.18	-1.78%	+$42.45	+5.2%
Over 2.5	78	+$35.40	+4.54%	−$26.37	-11.45%	+$39.45	+4.83%
Under 2.5	78	−$124.60	-15.97%	−$7.14	-30.59%	−$102.89	-13.18%
BTTS Yes	84	+$14.70	+1.75%	+$4.95	+9.37%	+$17.98	+2.13%
Home Favorite	58	−$7.50	-1.29%	−$16.48	-12.32%	−$9.42	-1.59%
Away Underdog	26	+$18.20	+7%	−$10.43	-31.77%	+$24.16	+10.18%
Favorite	84	−$35.20	-4.19%	−$34.10	-18.86%	−$29.72	-3.5%
Underdog	84	+$101.20	+12.05%	+$7.17	+8%	+$60.22	+6.92%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

Team	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Vålerenga	11	3	27.27%	+$85.50	+77.73%
Rosenborg	11	8	72.73%	+$52.40	+47.64%
KFUM	11	5	45.45%	+$48.00	+43.64%
Fredrikstad	11	4	36.36%	+$19.60	+17.82%
Molde	11	7	63.64%	+$19.60	+17.82%
Aalesund	11	3	27.27%	+$18.50	+16.82%
Viking	11	8	72.73%	+$9.60	+8.73%
Lillestrøm	10	4	40%	+$7.60	+7.6%
Bodø / Glimt	10	8	80%	+$4.00	+4%
Kristiansund	10	2	20%	+$0.80	+0.8%
Start	9	3	33.33%	−$10.70	-11.89%
Brann	10	3	30%	−$17.20	-17.2%
HamKam	11	2	18.18%	−$21.60	-19.64%
Sarpsborg 08	11	3	27.27%	−$46.60	-42.36%
Sandefjord	11	2	18.18%	−$48.90	-44.45%
Tromsø	9	2	22.22%	−$54.60	-60.67%

PPG Model

Teams

1.4

League Avg PPG

1.08

Home Factor

λ=0.85

WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for Eliteserien Norway. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	79	42	53.16%	−$14.90	-1.89%
PPG Home Pick	40	24	60%	−$4.00	-1%
PPG Away Pick	39	18	46.15%	−$10.90	-2.79%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	84	45	53.57%	+$49.70	+5.92%
PPG Value (fair < market)	84	25	29.76%	+$74.50	+8.87%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:: Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:: Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:: Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:: Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:: Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	79	−$14.90	-1.89%	−$12.16	-10.55%	−$17.18	-2.17%
PPG Home Pick	40	−$4.00	-1%	+$17.23	+53.66%	−$13.01	-3.13%
PPG Away Pick	39	−$10.90	-2.79%	−$20.48	-21.64%	+$1.12	+0.3%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	84	+$49.70	+5.92%	+$5.13	+1.2%	+$19.65	+2.35%
PPG Value (fair < market)	84	+$74.50	+8.87%	−$4.83	-4.38%	+$21.29	+2.4%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds	Result	✓
25 Oct	Molde vs Fredrikstad	Molde	52.46%	1.91	5 – 1	✓
25 Oct	Lillestrøm vs Brann	Lillestrøm	49.31%	2.03	3 – 2	✓
25 Oct	Kristiansund vs KFUM	KFUM	45.89%	2.18	2 – 2	✗
25 Oct	Start vs Sandefjord	Sandefjord	45.15%	2.21	1 – 0	✗
25 Oct	Sarpsborg 08 vs Aalesund	Sarpsborg 08	47.46%	2.11	2 – 1	✓

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds
30 Oct	Bodø / Glimt vs Viking	Bodø / Glimt	41.9%	2.39
31 Oct	Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg	***	0%	0
31 Oct	Aalesund vs Sandefjord	🔒 Login or register for free to see predictions data.
01 Nov	Brann vs Molde
01 Nov	KFUM vs HamKam

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

Team	PPG ↓	H-PPG	A-PPG	WPPG	vs Avg
1Viking	2.46	3	1.92	2.59	+1.06
2Bodø / Glimt	2.33	2.5	2.17	2.17	+0.93
3Molde	1.79	2.15	1.36	2.06	+0.39
4Rosenborg	1.67	2	1.33	2.28	+0.27
5Tromsø	1.67	2.08	1.25	1.13	+0.27
6Lillestrøm	1.63	1.58	1.67	1.73	+0.23
7Sarpsborg 08	1.29	1.5	1.08	1.37	-0.11
8KFUM	1.25	1.67	0.83	1.53	-0.15
9Brann	1.21	1.5	0.92	0.91	-0.19
10Vålerenga	1.21	1.42	1	1.36	-0.19
11Fredrikstad	1.21	1.64	0.85	0.98	-0.19
12HamKam	1.08	1.42	0.75	0.7	-0.32
13Sandefjord	1	1.17	0.83	0.81	-0.40
14Aalesund	1	1	1	1.15	-0.40
15Kristiansund	0.83	1.25	0.42	0.65	-0.57
16Start	0.79	1.25	0.33	1.06	-0.61

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

Rosenborg

PPG: 1.67WPPG: 2.28Gap: ↑ 0.61

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Tromsø

PPG: 1.67WPPG: 1.13Gap: ↓ 0.54

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

HamKam

PPG: 1.08WPPG: 0.7Gap: ↓ 0.38

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Brann

PPG: 1.21WPPG: 0.91Gap: ↓ 0.30

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

KFUM

PPG: 1.25WPPG: 1.53Gap: ↑ 0.28

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Worked Example — Molde vs Fredrikstad

P(Molde) = 1.74 / (1.74+1.26) × 1.08

= 0.580 × 1.08 = 52.46% → Fair odds 1.91

P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)

= 19.41% → Fair odds 5.15

P(Fredrikstad) = 1 − 52.46% − 19.41%

= 28.13% → Fair odds 3.55

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

1.28

Home xG (λ)

0.72

Away xG (λ)

2.00

Total E[goals]

1.84

League Avg Home

1.38

League Avg Away

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Bodø / Glimt vs Viking

29 Oct · Each cell shows the probability of that exact scoreline. Dixon-Coles corrected (ρ = -0.13). · Upcoming

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	15.2%	8.1%	3.5%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
1	15.7%	14.1%	4.5%	1.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
2	11.1%	8.0%	2.9%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
3	4.7%	3.4%	1.2%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
4	1.5%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Most likely High Medium Low

Derived Markets

Home Win

48.21%

Fair odds: 2.07

Draw

32.45%

Fair odds: 3.08

Away Win

19.35%

Fair odds: 5.17

Over 0.584.84%/ Under 15.16%Fair: 1.18

Over 1.561.01%/ Under 38.99%Fair: 1.64

Over 2.532.31%/ Under 67.69%Fair: 3.1

Over 3.514.26%/ Under 85.74%Fair: 7.02

Over 4.55.23%/ Under 94.77%Fair: 19.12

BTTS Yes38.67%Fair: 2.59

BTTS No61.33%Fair: 1.63

Correct Score — Top 12

11-0

15.71%H

20-0

15.16%D

31-1

14.1%D

42-0

11.09%H

50-1

8.13%A

62-1

7.99%H

73-0

4.73%H

81-2

4.49%A

90-2

3.51%A

103-1

3.41%H

112-2

2.87%D

124-0

1.51%H

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Where the low-score correction adds value

Plain Poisson

P(0-0) = 13.5%

P(1-0) = 17.3%

P(0-1) = 9.7%

P(1-1) = 12.5%

✗ Underestimates 0-0, 1-0, 0-1

Dixon-Coles (ρ correction)

P(0-0) = 15.2% (+1.6%)

P(1-0) = 15.7% (-1.6%)

P(0-1) = 8.1% (-1.6%)

P(1-1) = 14.1% (+1.6%)

✓ Fixes low-score underestimation

💡 Why does this matter? Draws in football are dominated by 0-0 and 1-1. Plain Poisson underprices these by 15–20%. Dixon-Coles corrects this, generating better ROI on draw markets.

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Poisson/Dixon-Coles model — xG computed only from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	63	17	26.98%	−$198.70	-31.54%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	34	21	61.76%	−$21.90	-6.44%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	15	7	46.67%	−$38.40	-25.6%
DC Draw (>28%)	30	4	13.33%	−$141.20	-47.07%
DC Over 2.5 Value	19	11	57.89%	−$12.70	-6.68%
DC BTTS Value	9	4	44.44%	−$26.80	-29.78%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Dixon-Coles bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	63	−$198.70	-31.54%	−$16.90	-90.04%	−$170.45	-27.49%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	34	−$21.90	-6.44%	−$13.66	-64.92%	−$19.14	-5.19%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	15	−$38.40	-25.6%	−$32.01	-100%	−$27.68	-19.95%
DC Draw (>28%)	30	−$141.20	-47.07%	$0.00	0%	−$148.74	-47.47%
DC Over 2.5 Value	19	−$12.70	-6.68%	+$4.26	+4.56%	−$15.00	-7.71%
DC BTTS Value	9	−$26.80	-29.78%	$0.00	0%	−$26.24	-29.18%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

Team	Att (H)	Def (H)	Att (A)	Def (A)	H GP	A GP
Viking	1.99	0.79	1.09	0.45	12	12
Bodø / Glimt	1.54	0.48	1.45	0.59	12	12
Molde	1.46	0.84	1.45	1.04	13	11
Rosenborg	1.27	0.85	1.09	0.77	12	12
Tromsø	1	0.6	1.27	1.09	12	12
Brann	0.91	1.09	1.33	1	12	12
Aalesund	1.09	1.81	0.97	1.04	12	12
Vålerenga	1.04	1.21	0.97	1.18	12	12
Lillestrøm	1	1.15	0.79	0.63	12	12
HamKam	0.77	1.45	0.97	1.22	12	12
KFUM	0.68	0.85	0.91	1.13	12	12
Sarpsborg 08	0.63	0.97	0.97	0.86	12	12
Fredrikstad	0.69	0.79	0.84	1.21	11	13
Start	0.68	1.15	0.66	1.59	12	12
Kristiansund	0.72	1.21	0.54	1.31	12	12
Sandefjord	0.45	0.72	0.72	0.86	12	12

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:: Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:: P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:: Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:: Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:: Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1Viking

1658

2Bodø / Glimt

1630

3Rosenborg

1576

4Molde

1556

5Lillestrøm

1529

6Tromsø

1526

7Sarpsborg 08

1493

8KFUM

1488

9Vålerenga

1478

10Fredrikstad

1478

11Aalesund

1458

12Brann

1454

13Sandefjord

1437

14HamKam

1434

15Kristiansund

1405

16Start

1401

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo Diff	P(Higher wins)	Fair Odds	Typical Matchup
0	50.0%	2.00	Evenly matched
50	57.1%	1.75	Mid vs mid-lower
100	64.0%	1.56	Top-8 vs bottom-8
150	70.3%	1.42	Top-4 vs relegation
200	76.0%	1.32	Leader vs bottom half
250	80.8%	1.24	Leader vs bottom 3
300	84.9%	1.18	Viking vs Start

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

VikingBodø / GlimtRosenborgMoldeLillestrømTromsø

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#	Team	Elo	Peak	Δ	GP	W	D	L
1	Viking	1658	1658	+158	24	19	2	3
2	Bodø / Glimt	1630	1662	+130	24	18	2	4
3	Rosenborg	1576	1576	+76	24	12	4	8
4	Molde	1556	1560	+56	24	13	4	7
5	Lillestrøm	1529	1568	+29	24	12	3	9
6	Tromsø	1526	1585	+26	24	11	7	6
7	Sarpsborg 08	1493	1526	-7	24	8	7	9
8	KFUM	1488	1513	-12	24	8	6	10
9	Vålerenga	1478	1531	-22	24	8	5	11
10	Fredrikstad	1478	1519	-22	24	8	5	11
11	Aalesund	1458	1500	-42	24	5	9	10
12	Brann	1454	1513	-46	24	9	2	13
13	Sandefjord	1437	1517	-63	24	6	6	12
14	HamKam	1434	1520	-66	24	7	5	12
15	Kristiansund	1405	1513	-95	24	5	5	14
16	Start	1401	1500	-99	24	5	4	15

Elo Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	72	17	24%	+$13.20	+1.83%
Elo Favourite	84	42	50%	−$123.40	-14.69%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	18	13	72%	−$5.70	-3.17%
Elo Away Pick (>50%)	3	2	67%	−$2.00	-6.67%
Elo Draw (>28%)	25	6	24%	−$24.40	-9.76%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	72	+$13.20	+1.83%	−$33.73	-69.81%	+$11.04	+1.52%
Elo Favourite	84	−$123.40	-14.69%	−$52.10	-51.23%	−$83.29	-9.81%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	18	−$5.70	-3.17%	−$3.91	-22.55%	−$3.11	-1.68%
Elo Away Pick (>50%)	3	−$2.00	-6.67%	$0.00	0%	−$0.69	-2.14%
Elo Draw (>28%)	25	−$24.40	-9.76%	−$1.20	-100%	−$16.08	-6.43%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:: Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:: E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:: R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:: Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:: Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

No upcoming matches with odds available. Please check back later.

Eliteserien Norway Prediction Models

Flat Betting Model

Odds Range Filter

Market ROI Summary

Staking Plan Comparison

By Team Bets

PPG Model

Odds Range Filter

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

PPG Ratings — All Teams

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Worked Example — Molde vs Fredrikstad

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Bodø / Glimt vs Viking

Derived Markets

Correct Score — Top 12

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Team Attack & Defense Strength

How Poisson Predictions Work

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

Elo → Win Probability Table

Elo Rating History — Top 6

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Elo Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

How Elo Ratings Work

Value Scanner