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Ekstraklasa Poland Prediction Models

2026/2027

Flat Betting Model

Matches w/ Odds

$10

Stake Per Bet

+8.46%

Best: BTTS Yes

-44.12%

Worst: Away Underdog

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for Ekstraklasa Poland. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

Market	Bets	Wins	Win %	Staked	Return	P&L	ROI	Best Str.	Worst Str.
Home Bet	97	46	47.42%	$970	$1002.6	+$32.60	+3.36%	6	5
Draw Bet	97	22	22.68%	$970	$797.6	−$172.40	-17.77%	4	14
Away Bet	97	29	29.9%	$970	$865.1	−$104.90	-10.81%	4	13
Over 2.5	96	57	59.38%	$960	$1002	+$42.00	+4.37%	8	4
Under 2.5	96	39	40.63%	$960	$925.8	−$34.20	-3.56%	4	8
BTTS Yes	97	63	64.95%	$970	$1052.1	+$82.10	+8.46%	6	4
Home Favorite	71	36	50.7%	$710	$719	+$9.00	+1.27%	5	4
Away Underdog	32	4	12.5%	$320	$178.8	−$141.20	-44.12%	1	17
Favorite	97	45	46.39%	$970	$925.3	−$44.70	-4.61%	5	4
Underdog	97	29	29.9%	$970	$915.4	−$54.60	-5.63%	4	10

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

Market	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Home Bet	97	+$32.60	+3.36%	−$33.43	-26.12%	+$68.72	+6.68%
Draw Bet	97	−$172.40	-17.77%	−$3.84	-52.39%	−$161.32	-16.92%
Away Bet	97	−$104.90	-10.81%	−$47.43	-37.16%	−$63.10	-6.56%
Over 2.5	96	+$42.00	+4.37%	+$10.98	+2.6%	+$43.41	+4.28%
Under 2.5	96	−$34.20	-3.56%	−$2.29	-49.14%	−$39.16	-3.97%
BTTS Yes	97	+$82.10	+8.46%	+$15.73	+6.59%	+$80.26	+7.93%
Home Favorite	71	+$9.00	+1.27%	−$45.19	-31.99%	+$30.93	+4.31%
Away Underdog	32	−$141.20	-44.12%	−$12.16	-71.66%	−$148.18	-45.06%
Favorite	97	−$44.70	-4.61%	−$40.49	-21.75%	−$11.36	-1.13%
Underdog	97	−$54.60	-5.63%	−$43.35	-65.09%	+$27.96	+2.83%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

Team	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Pogoń Szczecin	10	7	70%	+$83.80	+83.8%
Górnik Zabrze	11	7	63.64%	+$83.90	+76.27%
Lech Poznań	10	9	90%	+$63.00	+63%
Zagłębie Lubin	12	5	41.67%	+$42.60	+35.5%
GKS Katowice	10	5	50%	+$33.80	+33.8%
Piast Gliwice	12	6	50%	+$40.30	+33.58%
Korona Kielce	11	5	45.45%	+$28.00	+25.45%
Jagiellonia Białystok	10	4	40%	−$4.70	-4.7%
Legia Warszawa	11	5	45.45%	−$10.80	-9.82%
Wisła Kraków	11	5	45.45%	−$13.30	-12.09%
Wisła Płock	10	3	30%	−$26.00	-26%
Motor Lublin	11	3	27.27%	−$38.80	-35.27%
Cracovia	11	3	27.27%	−$40.20	-36.55%
Wieczysta Kraków	10	2	20%	−$43.30	-43.3%
Śląsk Wrocław	11	2	18.18%	−$50.50	-45.91%
Raków Częstochowa	11	2	18.18%	−$61.30	-55.73%
Radomiak Radom	11	1	9.09%	−$79.40	-72.18%
Widzew Łódź	11	1	9.09%	−$79.40	-72.18%

PPG Model

Teams

1.4

League Avg PPG

1.08

Home Factor

λ=0.85

WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for Ekstraklasa Poland. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	91	46	50.55%	+$171.40	+18.84%
PPG Home Pick	45	27	60%	+$95.10	+21.13%
PPG Away Pick	46	19	41.3%	+$76.30	+16.59%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	94	46	48.94%	+$138.70	+14.76%
PPG Value (fair < market)	95	40	42.11%	+$22.60	+2.38%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:: Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:: Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:: Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:: Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:: Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	91	+$171.40	+18.84%	+$1.53	+0.63%	+$188.66	+19.58%
PPG Home Pick	45	+$95.10	+21.13%	+$24.97	+32.45%	+$94.96	+19.45%
PPG Away Pick	46	+$76.30	+16.59%	−$0.83	-0.54%	+$68.86	+14.88%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	94	+$138.70	+14.76%	−$8.74	-3.92%	+$156.99	+15.8%
PPG Value (fair < market)	95	+$22.60	+2.38%	−$34.28	-36.34%	+$51.07	+5.06%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds	Result	✓
25 Oct	Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznań	Legia Warszawa	40.18%	2.49	1 – 2	✗
25 Oct	Jagiellonia Białystok vs Wisła Płock	Jagiellonia Białystok	40.53%	2.47	1 – 0	✓
25 Oct	Śląsk Wrocław vs Wieczysta Kraków	Wieczysta Kraków	39.98%	2.5	2 – 0	✗
24 Oct	Wisła Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa	Wisła Kraków	74.21%	1.35	2 – 1	✓
24 Oct	Pogoń Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom	Pogoń Szczecin	73.31%	1.36	4 – 3	✓

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds
16 Aug	Jagiellonia Białystok vs Pogoń Szczecin	Pogoń Szczecin	46.71%	2.14
16 Aug	Wisła Płock vs Lech Poznań	***	0%	0
30 Oct	Cracovia vs Motor Lublin	🔒 Login or register for free to see predictions data.
30 Oct	Górnik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa
31 Oct	Wisła Płock vs Piast Gliwice

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

Team	PPG ↓	H-PPG	A-PPG	WPPG	vs Avg
1Lech Poznań	2.55	2.67	2.4	2.65	+1.15
2Górnik Zabrze	2.25	2	2.43	1.97	+0.85
3Pogoń Szczecin	2.18	2	2.5	2.48	+0.78
4Legia Warszawa	1.92	1.83	2	1.67	+0.52
5Wisła Kraków	1.75	3	0.5	1.81	+0.35
6Piast Gliwice	1.67	1.86	1.4	1.92	+0.27
7Zagłębie Lubin	1.58	2.17	1	1.45	+0.18
8Korona Kielce	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.64	+0.10
9GKS Katowice	1.5	2.4	0.86	1.29	+0.10
10Jagiellonia Białystok	1.36	1.5	1.2	1.19	-0.04
11Wisła Płock	1.27	1.75	1	1.3	-0.13
12Motor Lublin	1.08	1.14	1	1.34	-0.32
13Cracovia	1	1.67	0.33	0.91	-0.40
14Widzew Łódź	0.92	0.71	1.2	0.84	-0.48
15Śląsk Wrocław	0.75	1.33	0.17	0.79	-0.65
16Radomiak Radom	0.67	1.17	0.17	0.42	-0.73
17Wieczysta Kraków	0.67	1	0.5	0.71	-0.73
18Raków Częstochowa	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.72	-0.90

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

Pogoń Szczecin

PPG: 2.18WPPG: 2.48Gap: ↑ 0.30

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Górnik Zabrze

PPG: 2.25WPPG: 1.97Gap: ↓ 0.28

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Motor Lublin

PPG: 1.08WPPG: 1.34Gap: ↑ 0.26

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Radomiak Radom

PPG: 0.67WPPG: 0.42Gap: ↓ 0.25

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Legia Warszawa

PPG: 1.92WPPG: 1.67Gap: ↓ 0.25

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Worked Example — Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznań

P(Legia Warszawa) = 2.09 / (2.09+2.5) × 1.08

= 0.455 × 1.08 = 40.18% → Fair odds 2.49

P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)

= 22.4% → Fair odds 4.46

P(Lech Poznań) = 1 − 40.18% − 22.4%

= 37.42% → Fair odds 2.67

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

0.25

Home xG (λ)

1.44

Away xG (λ)

1.69

Total E[goals]

1.66

League Avg Home

1.3

League Avg Away

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Jagiellonia Białystok vs Pogoń Szczecin

15 Aug · Each cell shows the probability of that exact scoreline. Dixon-Coles corrected (ρ = -0.13). · Upcoming

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	19.3%	25.7%	19.1%	9.2%	3.3%	0.9%	0.2%
1	3.8%	7.5%	4.8%	2.3%	0.8%	0.2%	0.1%
2	0.6%	0.8%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
3	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Most likely High Medium Low

Derived Markets

Home Win

5.34%

Fair odds: 18.73

Market: 2.27 (44.1%)

Draw

27.46%

Fair odds: 3.64

Market: 3.72 (26.9%)

Away Win

67.2%

Fair odds: 1.49

Market: 3.05 (32.8%)

Over 0.580.67%/ Under 19.33%Fair: 1.24

Over 1.551.19%/ Under 48.81%Fair: 1.95

Over 2.523.96%/ Under 76.04%Fair: 4.17

Over 3.59.1%/ Under 90.9%Fair: 10.98

Over 4.52.83%/ Under 97.17%Fair: 35.37

BTTS Yes17.74%Fair: 5.64

BTTS No82.26%Fair: 1.22

Correct Score — Top 12

10-1

25.73%A

20-0

19.33%D

30-2

19.15%A

40-3

9.19%A

51-1

7.51%D

61-2

4.79%A

71-0

3.75%H

80-4

3.31%A

91-3

2.3%A

100-5

0.95%A

111-4

0.83%A

122-1

0.83%H

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Where the low-score correction adds value

Plain Poisson

P(0-0) = 18.4%

P(1-0) = 4.6%

P(0-1) = 26.6%

P(1-1) = 6.6%

✗ Underestimates 0-0, 1-0, 0-1

Dixon-Coles (ρ correction)

P(0-0) = 19.3% (+0.9%)

P(1-0) = 3.8% (-0.9%)

P(0-1) = 25.7% (-0.8%)

P(1-1) = 7.5% (+0.9%)

✓ Fixes low-score underestimation

💡 Why does this matter? Draws in football are dominated by 0-0 and 1-1. Plain Poisson underprices these by 15–20%. Dixon-Coles corrects this, generating better ROI on draw markets.

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Poisson/Dixon-Coles model — xG computed only from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	63	22	34.92%	−$120.50	-19.13%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	27	16	59.26%	+$41.60	+15.41%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	18	7	38.89%	+$2.50	+1.39%
DC Draw (>28%)	21	3	14.29%	−$101.20	-48.19%
DC Over 2.5 Value	25	13	52%	−$27.20	-10.88%
DC BTTS Value	14	8	57.14%	−$13.10	-9.36%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Dixon-Coles bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	63	−$120.50	-19.13%	−$38.55	-85.86%	−$76.29	-11.84%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	27	+$41.60	+15.41%	+$1.30	+3.15%	+$43.39	+15.82%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	18	+$2.50	+1.39%	−$4.31	-40.28%	−$2.74	-1.33%
DC Draw (>28%)	21	−$101.20	-48.19%	$0.00	0%	−$103.91	-49.13%
DC Over 2.5 Value	25	−$27.20	-10.88%	−$1.84	-100%	−$27.89	-10.64%
DC BTTS Value	14	−$13.10	-9.36%	−$0.78	-39%	−$13.70	-9.41%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

Team	Att (H)	Def (H)	Att (A)	Def (A)	H GP	A GP
Lech Poznań	1.71	0.38	1.85	0.84	6	5
Legia Warszawa	1.31	0.64	1.28	0.6	6	6
GKS Katowice	1.57	0.77	0.99	1.03	5	7
Piast Gliwice	1.46	1.32	0.77	0.72	7	5
Górnik Zabrze	1.08	1.08	1.32	0.34	5	7
Pogoń Szczecin	1.2	0.88	0.96	0.15	7	4
Wisła Kraków	1.2	0.51	0.9	1.1	6	6
Motor Lublin	0.77	1.21	1.23	1.2	7	5
Wieczysta Kraków	0.9	0.96	0.96	1.36	4	8
Śląsk Wrocław	0.9	1.28	0.9	1.2	6	6
Raków Częstochowa	0.9	2.18	0.9	1.1	6	6
Jagiellonia Białystok	0.6	1.15	1.23	0.96	6	5
Widzew Łódź	0.69	1.1	1.08	0.72	7	5
Zagłębie Lubin	0.7	0.51	1.03	1.1	6	6
Korona Kielce	0.7	0.9	0.9	1.1	6	6
Cracovia	0.9	1.03	0.64	1.1	6	6
Radomiak Radom	0.7	1.28	0.64	1.81	6	6
Wisła Płock	0.6	0.58	0.66	1.12	4	7

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:: Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:: P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:: Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:: Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:: Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1Lech Poznań

1605

2Górnik Zabrze

1585

3Pogoń Szczecin

1577

4Legia Warszawa

1556

5Wisła Kraków

1538

6Piast Gliwice

1532

7Korona Kielce

1520

8Zagłębie Lubin

1515

9GKS Katowice

1499

10Wisła Płock

1489

11Jagiellonia Białystok

1483

12Motor Lublin

1473

13Widzew Łódź

1473

14Cracovia

1461

15Śląsk Wrocław

1436

16Wieczysta Kraków

1428

17Radomiak Radom

1422

18Raków Częstochowa

1409

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo Diff	P(Higher wins)	Fair Odds	Typical Matchup
0	50.0%	2.00	Evenly matched
50	57.1%	1.75	Mid vs mid-lower
100	64.0%	1.56	Top-8 vs bottom-8
150	70.3%	1.42	Top-4 vs relegation
200	76.0%	1.32	Leader vs bottom half
250	80.8%	1.24	Leader vs bottom 3
300	84.9%	1.18	Lech Poznań vs Raków Częstochowa

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

Lech PoznańGórnik ZabrzePogoń SzczecinLegia WarszawaWisła KrakówPiast Gliwice

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#	Team	Elo	Peak	Δ	GP	W	D	L
1	Lech Poznań	1605	1605	+105	11	9	1	1
2	Górnik Zabrze	1585	1593	+85	12	8	3	1
3	Pogoń Szczecin	1577	1577	+77	11	7	3	1
4	Legia Warszawa	1556	1576	+56	12	6	5	1
5	Wisła Kraków	1538	1542	+38	12	6	3	3
6	Piast Gliwice	1532	1532	+32	12	6	2	4
7	Korona Kielce	1520	1530	+20	12	5	3	4
8	Zagłębie Lubin	1515	1539	+15	12	5	4	3
9	GKS Katowice	1499	1532	-1	12	6	0	6
10	Wisła Płock	1489	1519	-11	11	4	2	5
11	Jagiellonia Białystok	1483	1532	-17	11	5	0	6
12	Motor Lublin	1473	1503	-27	12	3	4	5
13	Widzew Łódź	1473	1521	-27	12	1	8	3
14	Cracovia	1461	1510	-39	12	3	3	6
15	Śląsk Wrocław	1436	1500	-64	12	2	3	7
16	Wieczysta Kraków	1428	1500	-72	12	2	2	8
17	Radomiak Radom	1422	1513	-78	12	2	2	8
18	Raków Częstochowa	1409	1500	-91	12	2	0	10

Elo Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	63	22	35%	−$47.70	-7.57%
Elo Favourite	87	47	54%	+$173.90	+19.99%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	7	6	86%	+$33.90	+48.43%
Elo Draw (>28%)	30	8	27%	−$19.80	-6.6%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	63	−$47.70	-7.57%	−$20.75	-93.47%	+$32.72	+4.9%
Elo Favourite	87	+$173.90	+19.99%	+$78.20	+33.12%	+$155.80	+17.64%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	7	+$33.90	+48.43%	+$20.82	+71.55%	+$32.02	+43.97%
Elo Draw (>28%)	30	−$19.80	-6.6%	−$12.47	-32.98%	−$10.68	-3.56%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:: Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:: E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:: R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:: Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:: Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

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Ekstraklasa Poland Prediction Models

Flat Betting Model

Odds Range Filter

Market ROI Summary

Staking Plan Comparison

By Team Bets

PPG Model

Odds Range Filter

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

PPG Ratings — All Teams

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Worked Example — Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznań

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Jagiellonia Białystok vs Pogoń Szczecin

Derived Markets

Correct Score — Top 12

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Team Attack & Defense Strength

How Poisson Predictions Work

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

Elo → Win Probability Table

Elo Rating History — Top 6

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Elo Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

How Elo Ratings Work

Value Scanner