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Czech First League Prediction Models

2026/2027

Flat Betting Model

Matches w/ Odds

$10

Stake Per Bet

+23.83%

Best: Away Underdog

-20.53%

Worst: Home Bet

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for Czech Liga Czech Republic. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

Market	Bets	Wins	Win %	Staked	Return	P&L	ROI	Best Str.	Worst Str.
Home Bet	87	35	40.23%	$870	$691.4	−$178.60	-20.53%	4	10
Draw Bet	87	22	25.29%	$870	$905.8	+$35.80	+4.11%	4	10
Away Bet	87	30	34.48%	$870	$947.1	+$77.10	+8.86%	4	7
Over 2.5	86	43	50%	$860	$775.4	−$84.60	-9.84%	6	5
Under 2.5	86	43	50%	$860	$1037.3	+$177.30	+20.62%	5	6
BTTS Yes	87	42	48.28%	$870	$764.7	−$105.30	-12.1%	5	5
Home Favorite	63	33	52.38%	$630	$611.4	−$18.60	-2.95%	5	8
Away Underdog	35	8	22.86%	$350	$433.4	+$83.40	+23.83%	2	9
Favorite	87	47	54.02%	$870	$890.8	+$20.80	+2.39%	6	9
Underdog	87	18	20.69%	$870	$747.7	−$122.30	-14.06%	3	14

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

Market	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Home Bet	87	−$178.60	-20.53%	−$59.30	-81.01%	−$130.25	-14.45%
Draw Bet	87	+$35.80	+4.11%	+$3.60	+4.33%	−$0.22	-0.02%
Away Bet	87	+$77.10	+8.86%	−$38.46	-24.11%	+$97.21	+11.22%
Over 2.5	86	−$84.60	-9.84%	+$0.33	+2.62%	−$85.29	-9.93%
Under 2.5	86	+$177.30	+20.62%	+$46.33	+11.79%	+$173.25	+19.34%
BTTS Yes	87	−$105.30	-12.1%	−$4.52	-7.79%	−$122.41	-13.93%
Home Favorite	63	−$18.60	-2.95%	+$15.02	+12.15%	−$30.50	-4.93%
Away Underdog	35	+$83.40	+23.83%	−$7.08	-28.75%	+$79.00	+23.45%
Favorite	87	+$20.80	+2.39%	+$59.31	+20.55%	−$6.26	-0.72%
Underdog	87	−$122.30	-14.06%	−$29.14	-45.88%	−$111.89	-12.23%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

Team	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Sigma Olomouc	11	6	54.55%	+$46.00	+41.82%
Teplice	11	4	36.36%	+$38.60	+35.09%
Artis Brno	11	2	18.18%	+$27.00	+24.55%
Mladá Boleslav	12	6	50%	+$29.20	+24.33%
Jablonec	11	5	45.45%	+$17.60	+16%
Slovan Liberec	10	5	50%	+$13.50	+13.5%
Pardubice	11	4	36.36%	+$11.50	+10.45%
Zbrojovka Brno	11	5	45.45%	+$10.70	+9.73%
Slavia Praha	11	7	63.64%	+$3.80	+3.45%
Sparta Praha	11	7	63.64%	−$3.20	-2.91%
Bohemians 1905	10	4	40%	−$4.20	-4.2%
Hradec Králové	11	3	27.27%	−$30.30	-27.55%
Viktoria Plzeň	11	4	36.36%	−$43.20	-39.27%
Slovácko	11	1	9.09%	−$48.00	-43.64%
Baník Ostrava	10	2	20%	−$60.50	-60.5%
Zlín	11	0	0%	−$110.00	-100%

PPG Model

Teams

1.37

League Avg PPG

1.08

Home Factor

λ=0.85

WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for Czech Liga Czech Republic. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	76	35	46.05%	−$41.60	-5.47%
PPG Home Pick	41	21	51.22%	−$29.50	-7.2%
PPG Away Pick	35	14	40%	−$12.10	-3.46%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	78	31	39.74%	−$141.00	-18.08%
PPG Value (fair < market)	78	33	42.31%	+$10.80	+1.38%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:: Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:: Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:: Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:: Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:: Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	76	−$41.60	-5.47%	−$44.05	-29.88%	−$50.40	-6.26%
PPG Home Pick	41	−$29.50	-7.2%	−$13.02	-13.02%	−$36.01	-8.1%
PPG Away Pick	35	−$12.10	-3.46%	−$31.17	-44.29%	−$4.31	-1.2%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	78	−$141.00	-18.08%	−$60.93	-54.15%	−$129.86	-15.86%
PPG Value (fair < market)	78	+$10.80	+1.38%	−$64.87	-26.8%	+$44.00	+5.35%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds	Result	✓
25 Oct	Viktoria Plzeň vs Pardubice	Viktoria Plzeň	54.04%	1.85	1 – 2	✗
25 Oct	Sparta Praha vs Slovácko	Sparta Praha	71.83%	1.39	5 – 1	✓
25 Oct	Hradec Králové vs Jablonec	Hradec Králové	40.53%	2.47	1 – 2	✗
24 Oct	Slavia Praha vs Mladá Boleslav	Slavia Praha	51.05%	1.96	1 – 1	✗
24 Oct	Teplice vs Artis Brno	Teplice	59.6%	1.68	0 – 0	✗

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds
17 Oct	Artis Brno vs Bohemians 1905	Bohemians 1905	51.29%	1.95
24 Oct	Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava	***	0%	0
31 Oct	Slovácko vs Teplice	🔒 Login or register for free to see predictions data.
31 Oct	Artis Brno vs Zlín
31 Oct	Jablonec vs Slavia Praha

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

Team	PPG ↓	H-PPG	A-PPG	WPPG	vs Avg
1Slavia Praha	2.27	2	2.6	2.12	+0.90
2Sparta Praha	2	2.5	1.4	2.12	+0.63
3Sigma Olomouc	1.91	2	1.83	1.77	+0.54
4Mladá Boleslav	1.75	3	0.86	1.64	+0.38
5Slovan Liberec	1.7	1.4	2	1.44	+0.33
6Bohemians 1905	1.6	2.2	1	1.56	+0.23
7Zbrojovka Brno	1.55	1.67	1.4	1.48	+0.18
8Jablonec	1.55	1.4	1.67	1.57	+0.18
9Viktoria Plzeň	1.45	1.33	1.6	1.42	+0.08
10Teplice	1.36	1	1.8	1.23	-0.01
11Pardubice	1.27	1.4	1.17	1.74	-0.10
12Hradec Králové	1.09	1.17	1	0.88	-0.28
13Artis Brno	0.82	0.2	1.33	1.05	-0.55
14Baník Ostrava	0.8	1.4	0.2	0.71	-0.57
15Slovácko	0.64	0.6	0.67	0.68	-0.73
16Zlín	0.18	0.17	0.2	0.29	-1.19

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

Pardubice

PPG: 1.27WPPG: 1.74Gap: ↑ 0.47

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Slovan Liberec

PPG: 1.7WPPG: 1.44Gap: ↓ 0.26

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Artis Brno

PPG: 0.82WPPG: 1.05Gap: ↑ 0.23

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Hradec Králové

PPG: 1.09WPPG: 0.88Gap: ↓ 0.21

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Slavia Praha

PPG: 2.27WPPG: 2.12Gap: ↓ 0.15

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Worked Example — Viktoria Plzeň vs Pardubice

P(Viktoria Plzeň) = 1.6 / (1.6+1.1) × 1.08

= 0.593 × 1.08 = 54.04% → Fair odds 1.85

P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)

= 18.43% → Fair odds 5.43

P(Pardubice) = 1 − 54.04% − 18.43%

= 27.53% → Fair odds 3.63

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

0.78

Home xG (λ)

2.96

Away xG (λ)

3.74

Total E[goals]

1.39

League Avg Home

1.23

League Avg Away

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Artis Brno vs Bohemians 1905

16 Oct · Each cell shows the probability of that exact scoreline. Dixon-Coles corrected (ρ = -0.13). · Upcoming

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	3.2%	6.5%	10.8%	10.6%	7.8%	4.6%	2.3%
1	1.2%	6.4%	8.4%	8.3%	6.1%	3.6%	1.8%
2	0.8%	2.2%	3.3%	3.2%	2.4%	1.4%	0.7%
3	0.2%	0.6%	0.8%	0.8%	0.6%	0.4%	0.2%
4	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Most likely High Medium Low

Derived Markets

Home Win

6.34%

Fair odds: 15.78

Market: 2.50 (40.0%)

Draw

13.83%

Fair odds: 7.23

Market: 3.30 (30.3%)

Away Win

79.84%

Fair odds: 1.25

Market: 2.50 (40.0%)

Over 0.596.81%/ Under 3.19%Fair: 1.03

Over 1.589.11%/ Under 10.89%Fair: 1.12

Over 2.571.22%/ Under 28.78%Fair: 1.4

Over 3.549.83%/ Under 50.17%Fair: 2.01

Over 4.529.84%/ Under 70.16%Fair: 3.35

BTTS Yes52%Fair: 1.92

BTTS No48%Fair: 2.08

Correct Score — Top 12

10-2

10.75%A

20-3

10.6%A

31-2

8.38%A

41-3

8.27%A

50-4

7.85%A

60-1

6.52%A

71-1

6.4%D

81-4

6.12%A

90-5

4.64%A

101-5

3.62%A

112-2

3.27%D

122-3

3.23%A

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Where the low-score correction adds value

Plain Poisson

P(0-0) = 2.4%

P(1-0) = 1.9%

P(0-1) = 7.0%

P(1-1) = 5.5%

✗ Underestimates 0-0, 1-0, 0-1

Dixon-Coles (ρ correction)

P(0-0) = 3.2% (+0.8%)

P(1-0) = 1.2% (-0.7%)

P(0-1) = 6.5% (-0.5%)

P(1-1) = 6.4% (+0.9%)

✓ Fixes low-score underestimation

💡 Why does this matter? Draws in football are dominated by 0-0 and 1-1. Plain Poisson underprices these by 15–20%. Dixon-Coles corrects this, generating better ROI on draw markets.

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Poisson/Dixon-Coles model — xG computed only from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	42	9	21.43%	−$217.10	-51.69%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	18	8	44.44%	−$23.40	-13%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	12	3	25%	−$64.80	-54%
DC Draw (>28%)	18	3	16.67%	−$79.70	-44.28%
DC Over 2.5 Value	16	7	43.75%	−$35.90	-22.44%
DC BTTS Value	11	4	36.36%	−$37.40	-34%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Dixon-Coles bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	42	−$217.10	-51.69%	−$39.03	-100%	−$199.90	-41.03%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	18	−$23.40	-13%	−$10.75	-100%	−$45.41	-23.65%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	12	−$64.80	-54%	−$3.33	-100%	−$37.64	-25.35%
DC Draw (>28%)	18	−$79.70	-44.28%	$0.00	0%	−$76.90	-40.34%
DC Over 2.5 Value	16	−$35.90	-22.44%	$0.00	0%	−$34.49	-20.71%
DC BTTS Value	11	−$37.40	-34%	$0.00	0%	−$40.21	-36.38%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

Team	Att (H)	Def (H)	Att (A)	Def (A)	H GP	A GP
Sparta Praha	1.92	0.81	1.3	0.58	6	5
Viktoria Plzeň	1.32	1.22	1.95	1.29	6	5
Slavia Praha	1.32	0.68	1.79	0.14	6	5
Sigma Olomouc	1.29	0.98	1.22	0.84	5	6
Mladá Boleslav	1.58	0.16	0.93	1.34	5	7
Teplice	0.96	1.36	1.14	0.86	6	5
Jablonec	1.15	0.98	0.81	0.72	5	6
Bohemians 1905	0.72	0.16	1.14	1.29	5	5
Zbrojovka Brno	0.96	0.95	0.81	1.15	6	5
Pardubice	1.01	0.98	0.81	1.08	5	6
Artis Brno	0.43	2.11	1.08	0.84	5	6
Slovan Liberec	0.86	0.65	0.65	0.29	5	5
Slovácko	0.72	1.14	0.68	1.32	5	6
Zlín	0.36	1.36	0.98	1.87	6	5
Hradec Králové	0.84	1.36	0.33	0.58	6	5
Baník Ostrava	0.43	0.98	0.49	1.73	5	5

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:: Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:: P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:: Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:: Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:: Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1Slavia Praha

1584

2Sparta Praha

1551

3Sigma Olomouc

1549

4Mladá Boleslav

1544

5Bohemians 1905

1524

6Slovan Liberec

1521

7Jablonec

1512

8Viktoria Plzeň

1510

9Zbrojovka Brno

1507

10Pardubice

1500

11Teplice

1496

12Hradec Králové

1464

13Artis Brno

1460

14Baník Ostrava

1447

15Slovácko

1441

16Zlín

1390

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo Diff	P(Higher wins)	Fair Odds	Typical Matchup
0	50.0%	2.00	Evenly matched
50	57.1%	1.75	Mid vs mid-lower
100	64.0%	1.56	Top-8 vs bottom-8
150	70.3%	1.42	Top-4 vs relegation
200	76.0%	1.32	Leader vs bottom half
250	80.8%	1.24	Leader vs bottom 3
300	84.9%	1.18	Slavia Praha vs Zlín

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

Slavia PrahaSparta PrahaSigma OlomoucMladá BoleslavBohemians 1905Slovan Liberec

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#	Team	Elo	Peak	Δ	GP	W	D	L
1	Slavia Praha	1584	1597	+84	11	7	4	0
2	Sparta Praha	1551	1551	+51	11	7	1	3
3	Sigma Olomouc	1549	1560	+49	11	6	3	2
4	Mladá Boleslav	1544	1544	+44	12	6	3	3
5	Bohemians 1905	1524	1533	+24	10	4	4	2
6	Slovan Liberec	1521	1561	+21	10	5	2	3
7	Jablonec	1512	1531	+12	11	5	2	4
8	Viktoria Plzeň	1510	1532	+10	11	4	4	3
9	Zbrojovka Brno	1507	1526	+7	11	5	2	4
10	Pardubice	1500	1500	-0	11	4	2	5
11	Teplice	1496	1519	-4	11	4	3	4
12	Hradec Králové	1464	1516	-36	11	3	3	5
13	Artis Brno	1460	1500	-40	11	2	3	6
14	Baník Ostrava	1447	1500	-53	10	2	2	6
15	Slovácko	1441	1500	-59	11	1	4	6
16	Zlín	1390	1500	-110	11	0	2	9

Elo Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	55	13	24%	+$16.40	+2.98%
Elo Favourite	70	33	47%	−$57.00	-8.14%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	6	3	50%	−$15.00	-25%
Elo Away Pick (>50%)	1	1	100%	+$2.40	+24%
Elo Draw (>28%)	21	5	24%	−$26.30	-12.52%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	55	+$16.40	+2.98%	−$3.57	-13.95%	−$19.68	-3.56%
Elo Favourite	70	−$57.00	-8.14%	−$43.32	-31.09%	−$51.35	-7.09%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	6	−$15.00	-25%	$0.00	0%	−$17.16	-27.23%
Elo Away Pick (>50%)	1	+$2.40	+24%	$0.00	0%	+$2.40	+24%
Elo Draw (>28%)	21	−$26.30	-12.52%	−$7.76	-100%	−$24.33	-11.79%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:: Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:: E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:: R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:: Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:: Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

No upcoming matches with odds available. Please check back later.

Czech First League Prediction Models

Flat Betting Model

Odds Range Filter

Market ROI Summary

Staking Plan Comparison

By Team Bets

PPG Model

Odds Range Filter

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

PPG Ratings — All Teams

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Worked Example — Viktoria Plzeň vs Pardubice

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Artis Brno vs Bohemians 1905

Derived Markets

Correct Score — Top 12

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Team Attack & Defense Strength

How Poisson Predictions Work

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

Elo → Win Probability Table

Elo Rating History — Top 6

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Elo Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

How Elo Ratings Work

Value Scanner