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CSL China Prediction Models

2026

Flat Betting Model

76
Matches w/ Odds
$10
Stake Per Bet
+17.93%
Best: Draw Bet
-82.33%
Worst: Away Underdog

Odds Range Filter

1.0
10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for CSL China Pr. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

MarketBetsWinsWin %StakedReturnP&LROIBest Str.Worst Str.Trend
Home Bet762836.84%$760$567−$193.00-25.39%46
Draw Bet762228.95%$760$896.3+$136.30+17.93%38
Away Bet762634.21%$760$700.3−$59.70-7.86%38
Over 2.5764356.58%$760$645.6−$114.40-15.05%63
Under 2.5763343.42%$760$841.1+$81.10+10.67%36
BTTS Yes764761.84%$760$722.1−$37.90-4.99%63
Home Favorite522446.15%$520$425.5−$94.50-18.17%56
Away Underdog2414.17%$240$42.4−$197.60-82.33%120
Favorite763850%$760$712.6−$47.40-6.24%78
Underdog761519.74%$760$527.7−$232.30-30.57%218

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

MarketBetsFlat P&LFlat ROIKelly ¼ P&LKelly ¼ ROIConf P&LConf ROIComparison
Home Bet76−$193.00-25.39%−$45.24-24.6%−$160.70-21.71%
Draw Bet76+$136.30+17.93%−$18.00-18.94%+$142.61+18.39%
Away Bet76−$59.70-7.86%−$37.50-62.38%+$48.29+5.87%
Over 2.576−$114.40-15.05%−$13.49-77.17%−$95.94-12.54%
Under 2.576+$81.10+10.67%−$43.77-17.8%+$117.55+15.26%
BTTS Yes76−$37.90-4.99%−$26.82-40.43%−$35.27-4.6%
Home Favorite52−$94.50-18.17%−$32.99-38.39%−$79.70-15.29%
Away Underdog24−$197.60-82.33%$0.000%−$202.38-78.5%
Favorite76−$47.40-6.24%−$33.72-20.5%−$35.72-4.74%
Underdog76−$232.30-30.57%−$19.95-100%−$199.77-24.73%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:
Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:
Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:
Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

By Team Bets

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

TeamBetsWinsWin %P&LROI
Shandong Taishan9666.67%+$61.50+68.33%
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger10550%+$53.40+53.4%
Shanghai Port10770%+$46.30+46.3%
Dalian Yingbo10660%+$39.90+39.9%
Beijing Guoan10770%+$33.30+33.3%
Shanghai Shenhua10660%+$31.90+31.9%
Shenzhen Peng City9333.33%−$0.70-0.78%
Yunnan Yukun9333.33%−$15.20-16.89%
Zhejiang9333.33%−$20.10-22.33%
Liaoning Tieren10220%−$42.70-42.7%
Qingdao West Coast9222.22%−$45.00-50%
Chengdu Rongcheng9222.22%−$53.80-59.78%
Wuhan Three Towns10110%−$74.00-74%
Chongqing Tonglianglong9111.11%−$77.50-86.11%
Henan1000%−$100.00-100%
Qingdao Hainiu900%−$90.00-100%

PPG Model

16
Teams
1.37
League Avg PPG
1.08
Home Factor
λ=0.85
WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0
10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for CSL China Pr. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

StrategyBetsWinsWin %P&LROITrend
PPG Favorite (1×2)763951.32%+$68.60+9.03%
PPG Home Pick291862.07%−$0.20-0.07%
PPG Away Pick472144.68%+$68.80+14.64%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)763850%+$90.10+11.86%
PPG Value (fair < market)762228.95%−$193.30-25.43%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:
Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:
Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:
Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:
Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:
Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

StrategyBetsFlat P&LFlat ROIKelly ¼ P&LKelly ¼ ROIConf P&LConf ROIComparison
PPG Favorite (1×2)76+$68.60+9.03%−$17.38-11.38%+$68.66+8.66%
PPG Home Pick29−$0.20-0.07%−$34.93-35.76%+$9.95+3.42%
PPG Away Pick47+$68.80+14.64%−$2.65-4.14%+$68.49+13.53%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)76+$90.10+11.86%−$4.02-2.5%+$68.31+9%
PPG Value (fair < market)76−$193.30-25.43%−$54.91-45.89%−$136.68-18.57%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:
Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:
Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:
Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

DateMatchPPG PickProbFair OddsResult✓
24 OctChengdu Rongcheng vs Dalian YingboChengdu Rongcheng46.42%2.150 – 1✗
24 OctChongqing Tonglianglong vs Qingdao HainiuChongqing Tonglianglong56.42%1.772 – 0✓
24 OctHenan vs Beijing GuoanBeijing Guoan44.22%2.263 – 4✓
24 OctLiaoning Tieren vs ZhejiangLiaoning Tieren39.64%2.522 – 4✗
24 OctQingdao West Coast vs Yunnan YukunQingdao West Coast42.32%2.361 – 1✗

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

DateMatchPPG PickProbFair Odds
08 NovYunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three TownsYunnan Yukun53.74%1.86
08 NovShanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao West Coast***0%0
08 NovShanghai Port vs Liaoning Tieren
🔒

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08 NovShandong Taishan vs Chengdu Rongcheng
08 NovQingdao Hainiu vs Shenzhen Peng City

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

TeamPPG ↓H-PPGA-PPGWPPGvs AvgStrength
1Chengdu Rongcheng1.791.81.790.92+0.42
2Beijing Guoan1.791.791.82.27+0.42
3Shandong Taishan1.7221.471.98+0.35
4Dalian Yingbo1.692.211.22.2+0.32
5Shanghai Shenhua1.621.641.61.68+0.25
6Shanghai Port1.621.641.62.3+0.25
7Tianjin Jinmen Tiger1.411.271.571.8+0.04
8Yunnan Yukun1.381.930.871.26+0.01
9Zhejiang1.341.7111.27-0.03
10Qingdao West Coast1.341.61.071.15-0.03
11Chongqing Tonglianglong1.241.41.071.06-0.13
12Henan1.171.131.210.79-0.20
13Shenzhen Peng City1.11.60.571.23-0.27
14Liaoning Tieren11.330.640.89-0.37
15Wuhan Three Towns0.931.130.710.82-0.44
16Qingdao Hainiu0.721.210.270.17-0.65

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

Chengdu Rongcheng
PPG: 1.79WPPG: 0.92Gap: ↓ 0.87
Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG
Shanghai Port
PPG: 1.62WPPG: 2.3Gap: ↑ 0.68
Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising
Qingdao Hainiu
PPG: 0.72WPPG: 0.17Gap: ↓ 0.55
Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG
Dalian Yingbo
PPG: 1.69WPPG: 2.2Gap: ↑ 0.51
Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising
Beijing Guoan
PPG: 1.79WPPG: 2.27Gap: ↑ 0.48
Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Worked Example — Chengdu Rongcheng vs Dalian Yingbo

Chengdu Rongcheng PPG
1.86
vs
Dalian Yingbo PPG
1.64
P(Chengdu Rongcheng) = 1.86 / (1.86+1.64) × 1.08
= 0.531 × 1.08 = 46.42% → Fair odds 2.15
P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)
= 23.63% → Fair odds 4.23
P(Dalian Yingbo) = 1 − 46.42% − 23.63%
= 29.95% → Fair odds 3.34

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

2.86
Home xG (λ)
1.63
Away xG (λ)
4.49
Total E[goals]
1.77
League Avg Home
1.38
League Avg Away

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns

07 Nov · Each cell shows the probability of that exact scoreline. Dixon-Coles corrected (ρ = -0.13). · Upcoming

H \ A0123456
01.9%1.2%1.5%0.8%0.3%0.1%0.0%
12.6%6.1%4.4%2.4%1.0%0.3%0.1%
24.7%7.7%6.3%3.4%1.4%0.5%0.1%
34.5%7.3%6.0%3.3%1.3%0.4%0.1%
43.2%5.3%4.3%2.3%0.9%0.3%0.1%
51.8%3.0%2.5%1.3%0.5%0.2%0.1%
60.9%1.4%1.2%0.6%0.3%0.1%0.0%
Most likely High Medium Low

Derived Markets

Home Win
61.53%
Fair odds: 1.63
Draw
18.61%
Fair odds: 5.37
Away Win
19.86%
Fair odds: 5.03
Over 0.598.15%/ Under 1.85%Fair: 1.02
Over 1.594.36%/ Under 5.64%Fair: 1.06
Over 2.582.02%/ Under 17.98%Fair: 1.22
Over 3.564.6%/ Under 35.4%Fair: 1.55
Over 4.545.04%/ Under 54.96%Fair: 2.22
BTTS Yes76.35%Fair: 1.31
BTTS No23.65%Fair: 4.23

Correct Score — Top 12

12-1
7.7%H
23-1
7.34%H
32-2
6.27%D
41-1
6.08%D
53-2
5.98%H
64-1
5.25%H
72-0
4.72%H
83-0
4.5%H
91-2
4.39%A
104-2
4.28%H
112-3
3.41%A
123-3
3.25%D

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Where the low-score correction adds value

Plain Poisson
P(0-0) = 1.1%
P(1-0) = 3.2%
P(0-1) = 1.8%
P(1-1) = 5.2%
✗ Underestimates 0-0, 1-0, 0-1
Dixon-Coles (ρ correction)
P(0-0) = 1.9% (+0.7%)
P(1-0) = 2.6% (-0.6%)
P(0-1) = 1.2% (-0.7%)
P(1-1) = 6.1% (+0.8%)
✓ Fixes low-score underestimation
💡 Why does this matter? Draws in football are dominated by 0-0 and 1-1. Plain Poisson underprices these by 15–20%. Dixon-Coles corrects this, generating better ROI on draw markets.

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Poisson/Dixon-Coles model — xG computed only from matches played before each bet.

StrategyBetsWinsWin %P&LROITrend
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)591728.81%−$10.60-1.8%
DC Home Pick (>50%)321443.75%−$94.80-29.62%
DC Away Pick (>50%)3133.33%−$16.40-54.67%
DC Draw (>28%)221150%+$191.70+87.14%
DC Over 2.5 Value13861.54%−$11.90-9.15%
DC BTTS Value7571.43%+$4.60+6.57%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Dixon-Coles bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

StrategyBetsFlat P&LFlat ROIKelly ¼ P&LKelly ¼ ROIConf P&LConf ROIComparison
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)59−$10.60-1.8%+$13.59+23.99%−$57.13-10.41%
DC Home Pick (>50%)32−$94.80-29.62%−$9.71-100%−$77.64-24.29%
DC Away Pick (>50%)3−$16.40-54.67%$0.000%−$14.24-41.92%
DC Draw (>28%)22+$191.70+87.14%+$225.21+40.5%+$188.26+88.07%
DC Over 2.5 Value13−$11.90-9.15%−$22.03-52.41%−$9.08-6.93%
DC BTTS Value7+$4.60+6.57%−$13.71-52.43%+$5.97+8.71%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:
Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:
Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:
Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

TeamAtt (H)Def (H)Att (A)Def (A)H GPA GP
Shanghai Shenhua1.371.291.40.941415
Shandong Taishan1.370.931.111.091415
Yunnan Yukun1.291.041.211.511415
Beijing Guoan1.130.931.40.681415
Chengdu Rongcheng1.170.771.040.771514
Zhejiang1.211.141.011.211415
Shanghai Port0.970.671.260.871415
Dalian Yingbo1.050.880.970.981415
Wuhan Three Towns0.831.161.141.251514
Liaoning Tieren0.981.30.781.011514
Shenzhen Peng City1.020.970.621.251514
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger0.831.110.880.481514
Henan0.720.870.980.971514
Qingdao Hainiu0.731.350.771.361415
Qingdao West Coast0.680.680.720.971514
Chongqing Tonglianglong0.750.870.570.651514

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:
Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:
P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:
Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:
Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:
Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1Beijing Guoan
1618
2Shanghai Port
1587
3Dalian Yingbo
1571
4Shandong Taishan
1562
5Tianjin Jinmen Tiger
1537
6Shanghai Shenhua
1530
7Chengdu Rongcheng
1522
8Qingdao West Coast
1519
9Yunnan Yukun
1502
10Zhejiang
1490
11Chongqing Tonglianglong
1460
12Henan
1460
13Shenzhen Peng City
1458
14Wuhan Three Towns
1432
15Liaoning Tieren
1416
16Qingdao Hainiu
1336

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo DiffP(Higher wins)Fair OddsTypical Matchup
050.0%2.00Evenly matched
5057.1%1.75Mid vs mid-lower
10064.0%1.56Top-8 vs bottom-8
15070.3%1.42Top-4 vs relegation
20076.0%1.32Leader vs bottom half
25080.8%1.24Leader vs bottom 3
30084.9%1.18Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Hainiu

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

144015341628
Beijing GuoanShanghai PortDalian YingboShandong TaishanTianjin Jinmen TigerShanghai Shenhua

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#TeamEloPeakΔGPWDL
1Beijing Guoan16181618+1182914105
2Shanghai Port15871587+87291388
3Dalian Yingbo15711571+712915410
4Shandong Taishan15621562+62291559
5Tianjin Jinmen Tiger15371556+372911810
6Shanghai Shenhua15301582+302914510
7Chengdu Rongcheng15221640+22291577
8Qingdao West Coast15191555+19298156
9Yunnan Yukun15021520+22911711
10Zhejiang14901527-102911612
11Chongqing Tonglianglong14601570-40298129
12Henan14601532-402981011
13Shenzhen Peng City14581500-42299515
14Wuhan Three Towns14321500-682951212
15Liaoning Tieren14161504-84298516
16Qingdao Hainiu13361524-164296320

Elo Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.

StrategyBetsWinsWin %P&LROITrend
Elo Value (edge > 3%)631422%−$138.70-22.02%
Elo Favourite762938%−$210.10-27.64%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)14964%−$1.90-1.36%
Elo Away Pick (>50%)11100%+$3.60+36%
Elo Draw (>28%)341338%+$152.30+44.79%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

StrategyBetsFlat P&LFlat ROIKelly ¼ P&LKelly ¼ ROIConf P&LConf ROIComparison
Elo Value (edge > 3%)63−$138.70-22.02%−$37.55-72.25%−$87.72-13.99%
Elo Favourite76−$210.10-27.64%−$41.92-52.52%−$160.98-21.13%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)14−$1.90-1.36%−$2.67-40.89%+$0.99+0.71%
Elo Away Pick (>50%)1+$3.60+36%$0.000%+$3.60+36%
Elo Draw (>28%)34+$152.30+44.79%+$25.43+20.24%+$161.24+46.29%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:
Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:
Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:
Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:
Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:
E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:
R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:
Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:
Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

No upcoming matches with odds available. Please check back later.