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Champions League Europe Prediction Models

2026/2027

Flat Betting Model

86
Matches w/ Odds
$10
Stake Per Bet
+9.44%
Best: Home Favorite
-73.5%
Worst: Away Underdog

Odds Range Filter

1.0
10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for UEFA Champions League Europe. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

MarketBetsWinsWin %StakedReturnP&LROIBest Str.Worst Str.Trend
Home Bet864956.98%$860$915.9+$55.90+6.5%55
Draw Bet861315.12%$860$620.2−$239.80-27.88%416
Away Bet862427.91%$860$910+$50.00+5.81%25
Over 2.5865867.44%$860$938.3+$78.30+9.1%96
Under 2.5862832.56%$860$738.2−$121.80-14.16%69
BTTS Yes865361.63%$860$882.8+$22.80+2.65%76
Home Favorite634266.67%$630$689.5+$59.50+9.44%63
Away Underdog3425.88%$340$90.1−$249.90-73.5%115
Favorite865462.79%$860$907.4+$47.40+5.51%74
Underdog861922.09%$860$919.5+$59.50+6.92%313

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

MarketBetsFlat P&LFlat ROIKelly ¼ P&LKelly ¼ ROIConf P&LConf ROIComparison
Home Bet86+$55.90+6.5%−$63.49-38.23%+$93.19+10.86%
Draw Bet86−$239.80-27.88%−$11.47-36.82%−$245.01-29.48%
Away Bet86+$50.00+5.81%+$8.99+6.36%−$1.45-0.15%
Over 2.586+$78.30+9.1%+$3.28+4.2%+$81.08+8.75%
Under 2.586−$121.80-14.16%−$46.54-24.89%−$92.10-11.51%
BTTS Yes86+$22.80+2.65%−$32.53-36.95%+$26.46+2.91%
Home Favorite63+$59.50+9.44%+$3.08+1.98%+$61.37+9.46%
Away Underdog34−$249.90-73.5%−$1.37-100%−$230.40-66.22%
Favorite86+$47.40+5.51%−$14.98-6.61%+$56.62+6.36%
Underdog86+$59.50+6.92%+$13.57+6.9%+$75.26+8.47%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:
Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:
Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:
Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

By Team Bets

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

TeamBetsWinsWin %P&LROI
Hapoel Be'er Sheva4375%+$138.30+345.75%
Club Brugge3266.67%+$99.50+331.67%
LASK5240%+$120.70+241.4%
Real Betis33100%+$38.80+129.33%
PSG33100%+$35.20+117.33%
Shamrock Rovers11100%+$9.00+90%
Aston Villa33100%+$24.10+80.33%
PSV3133.33%+$20.00+66.67%
Real Madrid33100%+$17.70+59%
Liverpool33100%+$15.90+53%
Sporting CP3266.67%+$14.70+49%
Bodø / Glimt5360%+$22.80+45.6%
Sturm Graz3133.33%+$12.00+40%
Como3266.67%+$10.60+35.33%
Feyenoord3133.33%+$6.00+20%
Levski Sofia4250%+$6.80+17%
Sabah7342.86%+$5.50+7.86%
Fenerbahçe7342.86%+$3.50+5%
Borussia Dortmund3266.67%+$1.10+3.67%
Galatasaray3133.33%+$1.00+3.33%
Arsenal FC3266.67%+$0.90+3%
Ararat-Armenia3133.33%−$0.30-1%
Manchester City3266.67%−$1.20-4%
Lens3133.33%−$2.10-7%
Shakhtar Donetsk3133.33%−$3.80-12.67%
Stuttgart3266.67%−$4.30-14.33%
AGF2150%−$3.40-17%
Celtic2150%−$3.50-17.5%
Slovan Bratislava7228.57%−$13.60-19.43%
Barcelona3266.67%−$6.20-20.67%
Villarreal3133.33%−$9.00-30%
AEK Athens5240%−$15.80-31.6%
Atlético de Madrid3133.33%−$10.90-36.33%
RB Leipzig3133.33%−$12.70-42.33%
Napoli3133.33%−$13.80-46%
Dinamo Zagreb5240%−$23.40-46.8%
Viking5120%−$25.50-51%
Internazionale3133.33%−$17.80-59.33%
Manchester United3133.33%−$18.50-61.67%
Roma3133.33%−$18.60-62%
Bayern München3133.33%−$18.80-62.67%
Celje5120%−$35.00-70%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë100%−$10.00-100%
Slavia Praha300%−$30.00-100%
Lille300%−$30.00-100%
Olympique Lyonnais200%−$20.00-100%
Kairat200%−$20.00-100%
Kauno Žalgiris200%−$20.00-100%
NEC200%−$20.00-100%
Porto300%−$30.00-100%
Hearts100%−$10.00-100%
Crvena zvezda200%−$20.00-100%
Mjällby200%−$20.00-100%
Thun100%−$10.00-100%

PPG Model

54
Teams
1.37
League Avg PPG
1.08
Home Factor
λ=0.85
WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0
10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for UEFA Champions League Europe. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

StrategyBetsWinsWin %P&LROITrend
PPG Favorite (1×2)452248.89%+$87.40+19.42%
PPG Home Pick161275%+$55.70+34.81%
PPG Away Pick291034.48%+$31.70+10.93%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)472348.94%+$86.90+18.49%
PPG Value (fair < market)512141.18%+$54.20+10.63%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:
Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:
Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:
Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:
Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:
Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

StrategyBetsFlat P&LFlat ROIKelly ¼ P&LKelly ¼ ROIConf P&LConf ROIComparison
PPG Favorite (1×2)45+$87.40+19.42%−$50.99-37.06%+$52.72+10.46%
PPG Home Pick16+$55.70+34.81%+$36.11+24.21%+$44.87+25.28%
PPG Away Pick29+$31.70+10.93%−$45.48-58.78%−$23.46-7.87%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)47+$86.90+18.49%−$56.26-40.23%+$60.96+11.71%
PPG Value (fair < market)51+$54.20+10.63%−$70.63-59.71%+$68.66+13.27%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:
Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:
Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:
Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

DateMatchPPG PickProbFair OddsResult✓
21 OctReal Betis vs FeyenoordReal Betis63.49%1.571 – 0✓
21 OctReal Madrid vs RB LeipzigReal Madrid63.49%1.574 – 1✓
21 OctInternazionale vs Shakhtar DonetskShakhtar Donetsk95%1.051 – 0✗
21 OctClub Brugge vs LensClub Brugge42.59%2.353 – 0✓
21 OctBayern München vs Arsenal FCArsenal FC45.48%2.22 – 2✗

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

TeamPPG ↓H-PPGA-PPGWPPGvs AvgStrength
1Shamrock Rovers3303+1.63
2Aston Villa3333+1.63
3Real Madrid3333+1.63
4Real Betis3333+1.63
5Liverpool3333+1.63
6PSG3333+1.63
7Stuttgart2.33232.22+0.96
8Arsenal FC2.33322.22+0.96
9Hapoel Be'er Sheva2.2531.52.06+0.88
10Club Brugge21.532.16+0.63
11Manchester City21.532.01+0.63
12Borussia Dortmund231.52.01+0.63
13Barcelona231.51.83+0.63
14Sporting CP21.531.83+0.63
15Como2302.01+0.63
16Bodø / Glimt1.8311.61+0.43
17Levski Sofia1.7521.51.53+0.38
18Fenerbahçe1.711.521.45+0.34
19Bayern München1.67211.56+0.30
20Dinamo Zagreb1.61.671.51.45+0.23
21AGF1.5301.38+0.13
22Celtic1.5301.38+0.13
23AEK Athens1.430.331.22+0.03
24Atlético de Madrid1.3330.51.38-0.04
25PSV1.3311.51.45-0.04
26Shakhtar Donetsk1.3330.51.27-0.04
27Roma1.331.511.45-0.04
28Sabah1.292.2501.26-0.08
29Celje1.21.670.51.22-0.17
30LASK1.21.511.31-0.17
31Slovan Bratislava1.141.3310.79-0.23
32Thun1011-0.37
33Egnatia Rrogozhinë1011-0.37
34Sturm Graz101.50.84-0.37
35Ararat-Armenia1300.99-0.37
36Viking120.330.87-0.37
37Internazionale11.501.17-0.37
38Villarreal1300.99-0.37
39Feyenoord1300.99-0.37
40Napoli11.501.17-0.37
41Galatasaray101.51.17-0.37
42Lens101.50.84-0.37
43RB Leipzig1300.99-0.37
44Manchester United1300.84-0.37
45Olympique Lyonnais0.5010.46-0.87
46Slavia Praha0.3300.50.39-1.04
47Hearts0000-1.37
48Mjällby0000-1.37
49Crvena zvezda0000-1.37
50Kairat0000-1.37
51Kauno Žalgiris0000-1.37
52NEC0000-1.37
53Porto0000-1.37
54Lille0000-1.37

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

Slovan Bratislava
PPG: 1.14WPPG: 0.79Gap: ↓ 0.35
Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG
Fenerbahçe
PPG: 1.71WPPG: 1.45Gap: ↓ 0.26
Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG
Levski Sofia
PPG: 1.75WPPG: 1.53Gap: ↓ 0.22
Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG
Hapoel Be'er Sheva
PPG: 2.25WPPG: 2.06Gap: ↓ 0.19
Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG
Bodø / Glimt
PPG: 1.8WPPG: 1.61Gap: ↓ 0.19
Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Worked Example — Real Betis vs Feyenoord

Real Betis PPG
3
vs
Feyenoord PPG
1.5
P(Real Betis) = 3 / (3+1.5) × 1.08
= 0.667 × 1.08 = 63.49% → Fair odds 1.57
P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)
= 13.4% → Fair odds 7.46
P(Feyenoord) = 1 − 63.49% − 13.4%
= 23.11% → Fair odds 4.33

Poisson / Correct Score

Not enough data yet.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1PSG
1546
2Aston Villa
1545
3Real Madrid
1543
4Liverpool
1543
5Real Betis
1542
6Arsenal FC
1533
7Stuttgart
1528
8Hapoel Be'er Sheva
1527
9Fenerbahçe
1522
10Borussia Dortmund
1519
11Barcelona
1518
12Bayern München
1515
13Manchester City
1514
14Club Brugge
1513
15Bodø / Glimt
1513
16Shamrock Rovers
1513
17Levski Sofia
1512
18Como
1512
19Sporting CP
1511
20Dinamo Zagreb
1510
21Atlético de Madrid
1506
22Thun
1503
23Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1503
24AEK Athens
1503
25Shakhtar Donetsk
1502
26PSV
1502
27Celje
1500
28Roma
1500
29AGF
1499
30Celtic
1499
31LASK
1493
32Viking
1490
33Feyenoord
1489
34RB Leipzig
1489
35Galatasaray
1488
36Villarreal
1488
37Lens
1487
38Ararat-Armenia
1487
39Sturm Graz
1487
40Olympique Lyonnais
1486
41Manchester United
1486
42Sabah
1485
43Napoli
1484
44Internazionale
1483
45Slovan Bratislava
1481
46Hearts
1481
47Slavia Praha
1474
48Mjällby
1470
49NEC
1470
50Crvena zvezda
1469
51Kairat
1469
52Kauno Žalgiris
1469
53Porto
1451
54Lille
1451

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo DiffP(Higher wins)Fair OddsTypical Matchup
050.0%2.00Evenly matched
5057.1%1.75Mid vs mid-lower
10064.0%1.56Top-8 vs bottom-8
15070.3%1.42Top-4 vs relegation
20076.0%1.32Leader vs bottom half
25080.8%1.24Leader vs bottom 3
30084.9%1.18PSG vs Lille

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

150315301556
PSGAston VillaReal MadridLiverpoolReal BetisArsenal FC

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#TeamEloPeakΔGPWDL
1PSG15461546+463300
2Aston Villa15451545+453300
3Real Madrid15431543+433300
4Liverpool15431543+433300
5Real Betis15421542+423300
6Arsenal FC15331533+333210
7Stuttgart15281533+283210
8Hapoel Be'er Sheva15271543+274301
9Fenerbahçe15221546+227331
10Borussia Dortmund15191519+193201
11Barcelona15181531+183201
12Bayern München15151517+153120
13Manchester City15141519+143201
14Club Brugge15131513+133201
15Bodø / Glimt15131530+135302
16Shamrock Rovers15131513+131100
17Levski Sofia15121531+124211
18Como15121513+123201
19Sporting CP15111532+113201
20Dinamo Zagreb15101528+105221
21Atlético de Madrid15061506+63111
22Thun15031503+31010
23Egnatia Rrogozhinë15031503+31010
24AEK Athens15031531+35212
25Shakhtar Donetsk15021517+23111
26PSV15021502+23111
27Celje15001502-05131
28Roma15001505-03111
29AGF14991513-12101
30Celtic14991513-12101
31LASK14931501-75203
32Viking14901518-105122
33Feyenoord14891501-113102
34RB Leipzig14891500-113102
35Galatasaray14881500-123102
36Villarreal14881500-123102
37Lens14871519-133102
38Ararat-Armenia14871500-133102
39Sturm Graz14871519-133102
40Olympique Lyonnais14861504-142011
41Manchester United14861513-143102
42Sabah14851505-157304
43Napoli14841500-163102
44Internazionale14831500-173102
45Slovan Bratislava14811530-197223
46Hearts14811500-191001
47Slavia Praha14741500-263012
48Mjällby14701500-302002
49NEC14701500-302002
50Crvena zvezda14691500-312002
51Kairat14691500-312002
52Kauno Žalgiris14691500-312002
53Porto14511500-493003
54Lille14511500-493003

Elo Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.

StrategyBetsWinsWin %P&LROITrend
Elo Value (edge > 3%)19211%−$141.20-74.32%
Elo Favourite241563%+$8.70+3.63%
Elo Draw (>28%)6117%−$25.50-42.5%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

StrategyBetsFlat P&LFlat ROIKelly ¼ P&LKelly ¼ ROIConf P&LConf ROIComparison
Elo Value (edge > 3%)19−$141.20-74.32%−$8.81-100%−$80.70-46.17%
Elo Favourite24+$8.70+3.63%−$21.05-43.28%+$14.77+5.67%
Elo Draw (>28%)6−$25.50-42.5%−$1.67-100%−$12.77-22.32%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:
Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:
Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:
Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:
Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:
E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:
R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:
Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:
Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

No upcoming matches with odds available. Please check back later.