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Bundesliga Austria Prediction Models

2026/2027

Flat Betting Model

Matches w/ Odds

$10

Stake Per Bet

+27.28%

Best: Home Favorite

-55%

Worst: Away Underdog

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for Bundesliga Austria. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

Market	Bets	Wins	Win %	Staked	Return	P&L	ROI	Best Str.	Worst Str.
Home Bet	60	31	51.67%	$600	$625.4	+$25.40	+4.23%	4	4
Draw Bet	60	12	20%	$600	$497.4	−$102.60	-17.1%	2	11
Away Bet	60	17	28.33%	$600	$445.1	−$154.90	-25.82%	2	9
Over 2.5	60	39	65%	$600	$667.8	+$67.80	+11.3%	6	3
Under 2.5	60	21	35%	$600	$513.8	−$86.20	-14.37%	3	6
BTTS Yes	60	33	55%	$600	$555.4	−$44.60	-7.43%	4	5
Home Favorite	39	27	69.23%	$390	$496.4	+$106.40	+27.28%	10	3
Away Underdog	20	2	10%	$200	$90	−$110.00	-55%	1	8
Favorite	60	37	61.67%	$600	$695.8	+$95.80	+15.97%	6	4
Underdog	60	11	18.33%	$600	$374.7	−$225.30	-37.55%	1	13

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

Market	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Home Bet	60	+$25.40	+4.23%	−$58.76	-29.34%	+$101.28	+16.58%
Draw Bet	60	−$102.60	-17.1%	−$4.97	-43.63%	−$116.56	-19.69%
Away Bet	60	−$154.90	-25.82%	−$34.83	-71.48%	−$119.06	-18.98%
Over 2.5	60	+$67.80	+11.3%	+$4.86	+9.21%	+$73.28	+11.61%
Under 2.5	60	−$86.20	-14.37%	−$25.74	-19.41%	−$82.41	-13.62%
BTTS Yes	60	−$44.60	-7.43%	−$0.19	-11.45%	−$48.02	-7.71%
Home Favorite	39	+$106.40	+27.28%	+$55.73	+7.63%	+$102.31	+26.67%
Away Underdog	20	−$110.00	-55%	−$0.40	-100%	−$97.42	-50.5%
Favorite	60	+$95.80	+15.97%	+$54.06	+8.87%	+$95.43	+15.73%
Underdog	60	−$225.30	-37.55%	−$13.17	-100%	−$166.95	-26.79%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

Team	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Rapid	10	9	90%	+$76.60	+76.6%
Salzburg	10	7	70%	+$22.50	+22.5%
Hartberg	10	4	40%	+$18.20	+18.2%
Sturm Graz	10	5	50%	+$6.90	+6.9%
WSG Tirol	10	3	30%	+$1.80	+1.8%
LASK	10	6	60%	+$0.10	+0.1%
Ried	10	4	40%	−$9.50	-9.5%
Austria Lustenau	10	2	20%	−$32.00	-32%
Rheindorf Altach	10	3	30%	−$36.10	-36.1%
Grazer AK	10	2	20%	−$45.90	-45.9%
Austria Wien	10	2	20%	−$55.90	-55.9%
Wolfsberger AC	10	1	10%	−$76.20	-76.2%

PPG Model

Teams

1.4

League Avg PPG

1.08

Home Factor

λ=0.85

WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for Bundesliga Austria. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	49	28	57.14%	+$95.20	+19.43%
PPG Home Pick	22	15	68.18%	+$45.90	+20.86%
PPG Away Pick	27	13	48.15%	+$49.30	+18.26%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	52	31	59.62%	+$132.30	+25.44%
PPG Value (fair < market)	53	23	43.4%	−$7.60	-1.43%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:: Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:: Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:: Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:: Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:: Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	49	+$95.20	+19.43%	+$25.84	+16.38%	+$81.62	+15.48%
PPG Home Pick	22	+$45.90	+20.86%	+$9.43	+9.28%	+$42.11	+19.39%
PPG Away Pick	27	+$49.30	+18.26%	+$6.16	+8.74%	+$29.81	+10.22%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	52	+$132.30	+25.44%	+$55.79	+28.69%	+$115.83	+20.83%
PPG Value (fair < market)	53	−$7.60	-1.43%	−$63.67	-57.25%	+$98.45	+19.03%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds	Result	✓
25 Oct	LASK vs Salzburg	LASK	41.3%	2.42	1 – 3	✗
25 Oct	Sturm Graz vs Ried	Sturm Graz	48.45%	2.06	2 – 2	✗
24 Oct	Rapid vs Austria Lustenau	Rapid	74.36%	1.34	5 – 1	✓
24 Oct	Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC	Hartberg	65.91%	1.52	1 – 0	✓
24 Oct	WSG Tirol vs Grazer AK	WSG Tirol	48.66%	2.06	1 – 1	✗

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds
30 Oct	Grazer AK vs Hartberg	Hartberg	40.53%	2.47
31 Oct	Rheindorf Altach vs Ried	***	0%	0
31 Oct	LASK vs WSG Tirol	🔒 Login or register for free to see predictions data.
01 Nov	Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau
01 Nov	Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

Team	PPG ↓	H-PPG	A-PPG	WPPG	vs Avg
1Rapid	2.7	3	2.25	2.75	+1.30
2Salzburg	2.4	3	1.8	2.43	+1.00
3LASK	1.9	1.8	2	1.51	+0.50
4Sturm Graz	1.8	2.2	1.4	1.81	+0.40
5Ried	1.5	2	1	1.76	+0.10
6Hartberg	1.4	1.67	1	1.64	0.00
7WSG Tirol	1.2	0.6	1.8	1.26	-0.20
8Grazer AK	1	1.5	0.67	0.96	-0.40
9Rheindorf Altach	0.9	1.8	0	1.12	-0.50
10Austria Lustenau	0.8	1.4	0.2	0.64	-0.60
11Austria Wien	0.7	0.75	0.67	0.59	-0.70
12Wolfsberger AC	0.5	0.8	0.2	0.25	-0.90

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

LASK

PPG: 1.9WPPG: 1.51Gap: ↓ 0.39

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Ried

PPG: 1.5WPPG: 1.76Gap: ↑ 0.26

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Wolfsberger AC

PPG: 0.5WPPG: 0.25Gap: ↓ 0.25

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Hartberg

PPG: 1.4WPPG: 1.64Gap: ↑ 0.24

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Rheindorf Altach

PPG: 0.9WPPG: 1.12Gap: ↑ 0.22

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Worked Example — LASK vs Salzburg

P(LASK) = 2.11 / (2.11+2.33) × 1.08

= 0.475 × 1.08 = 41.3% → Fair odds 2.42

P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)

= 24.27% → Fair odds 4.12

P(Salzburg) = 1 − 41.3% − 24.27%

= 34.43% → Fair odds 2.9

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

0.92

Home xG (λ)

0.73

Away xG (λ)

1.65

Total E[goals]

1.9

League Avg Home

1.28

League Avg Away

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Grazer AK vs Hartberg

29 Oct · Each cell shows the probability of that exact scoreline. Dixon-Coles corrected (ρ = -0.13). · Upcoming

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	20.9%	12.3%	5.1%	1.3%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
1	16.0%	14.6%	4.7%	1.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
2	8.1%	5.9%	2.2%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
3	2.5%	1.8%	0.7%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	0.6%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Most likely High Medium Low

Derived Markets

Home Win

36.46%

Fair odds: 2.74

Draw

37.79%

Fair odds: 2.65

Away Win

25.74%

Fair odds: 3.88

Over 0.579.12%/ Under 20.88%Fair: 1.26

Over 1.550.78%/ Under 49.22%Fair: 1.97

Over 2.522.96%/ Under 77.04%Fair: 4.36

Over 3.58.58%/ Under 91.42%Fair: 11.66

Over 4.52.65%/ Under 97.35%Fair: 37.76

BTTS Yes32.84%Fair: 3.05

BTTS No67.16%Fair: 1.49

Correct Score — Top 12

10-0

20.88%D

21-0

15.99%H

31-1

14.58%D

40-1

12.34%A

52-0

8.13%H

62-1

5.93%H

70-2

5.12%A

81-2

4.71%A

93-0

2.49%H

102-2

2.17%D

113-1

1.82%H

120-3

1.25%A

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Where the low-score correction adds value

Plain Poisson

P(0-0) = 19.2%

P(1-0) = 17.7%

P(0-1) = 14.0%

P(1-1) = 12.9%

✗ Underestimates 0-0, 1-0, 0-1

Dixon-Coles (ρ correction)

P(0-0) = 20.9% (+1.7%)

P(1-0) = 16.0% (-1.7%)

P(0-1) = 12.3% (-1.7%)

P(1-1) = 14.6% (+1.7%)

✓ Fixes low-score underestimation

💡 Why does this matter? Draws in football are dominated by 0-0 and 1-1. Plain Poisson underprices these by 15–20%. Dixon-Coles corrects this, generating better ROI on draw markets.

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Poisson/Dixon-Coles model — xG computed only from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	31	15	48.39%	+$15.40	+4.97%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	19	13	68.42%	+$52.70	+27.74%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	10	3	30%	−$34.80	-34.8%
DC Draw (>28%)	9	2	22.22%	−$12.70	-14.11%
DC Over 2.5 Value	8	7	87.5%	+$41.10	+51.38%
DC BTTS Value	4	3	75%	+$9.00	+22.5%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Dixon-Coles bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	31	+$15.40	+4.97%	−$7.21	-18.43%	+$24.38	+7.99%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	19	+$52.70	+27.74%	+$30.07	+25.83%	+$54.72	+27.95%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	10	−$34.80	-34.8%	$0.00	0%	−$51.49	-45.25%
DC Draw (>28%)	9	−$12.70	-14.11%	−$0.25	-100%	−$16.41	-17.96%
DC Over 2.5 Value	8	+$41.10	+51.38%	−$2.56	-3.75%	+$41.70	+50.3%
DC BTTS Value	4	+$9.00	+22.5%	$0.00	0%	+$8.53	+21.62%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

Team	Att (H)	Def (H)	Att (A)	Def (A)	H GP	A GP
Rapid	2.02	0.39	1.56	0.79	6	4
LASK	1.16	0.94	2.03	0.63	5	5
Salzburg	1.68	0.31	1.25	0.32	5	5
Sturm Graz	1.26	0.78	0.94	0.74	5	5
Ried	1.05	0.94	1.25	1.16	5	5
Hartberg	0.96	1.56	0.98	0.92	6	4
WSG Tirol	0.53	1.41	1.25	0.63	5	5
Austria Lustenau	0.53	1.56	1.09	1.47	5	5
Austria Wien	0.26	1.17	1.04	1.23	4	6
Rheindorf Altach	1.05	0.94	0	1.05	5	5
Grazer AK	0.53	0.59	0.52	1.75	4	6
Wolfsberger AC	0.53	1.41	0.31	1.05	5	5

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:: Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:: P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:: Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:: Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:: Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1Rapid

1604

2Salzburg

1594

3Sturm Graz

1544

4LASK

1533

5Ried

1521

6Hartberg

1501

7WSG Tirol

1486

8Grazer AK

1481

9Rheindorf Altach

1448

10Austria Lustenau

1444

11Austria Wien

1435

12Wolfsberger AC

1411

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo Diff	P(Higher wins)	Fair Odds	Typical Matchup
0	50.0%	2.00	Evenly matched
50	57.1%	1.75	Mid vs mid-lower
100	64.0%	1.56	Top-8 vs bottom-8
150	70.3%	1.42	Top-4 vs relegation
200	76.0%	1.32	Leader vs bottom half
250	80.8%	1.24	Leader vs bottom 3
300	84.9%	1.18	Rapid vs Wolfsberger AC

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

RapidSalzburgSturm GrazLASKRiedHartberg

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#	Team	Elo	Peak	Δ	GP	W	D	L
1	Rapid	1604	1604	+104	10	9	0	1
2	Salzburg	1594	1594	+94	10	7	3	0
3	Sturm Graz	1544	1548	+44	10	5	3	2
4	LASK	1533	1568	+33	10	6	1	3
5	Ried	1521	1521	+21	10	4	3	3
6	Hartberg	1501	1501	+1	10	4	2	4
7	WSG Tirol	1486	1505	-14	10	3	3	4
8	Grazer AK	1481	1500	-19	10	2	4	4
9	Rheindorf Altach	1448	1500	-52	10	3	0	7
10	Austria Lustenau	1444	1502	-56	10	2	2	6
11	Austria Wien	1435	1500	-65	10	2	1	7
12	Wolfsberger AC	1411	1513	-89	10	1	2	7

Elo Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	40	9	23%	−$80.00	-20%
Elo Favourite	48	26	54%	+$43.60	+9.08%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	4	4	100%	+$13.20	+33%
Elo Draw (>28%)	19	4	21%	−$5.00	-2.63%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	40	−$80.00	-20%	−$26.08	-58.88%	−$21.30	-4.98%
Elo Favourite	48	+$43.60	+9.08%	−$24.99	-18.18%	+$56.84	+11.3%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	4	+$13.20	+33%	$0.00	0%	+$13.71	+32.37%
Elo Draw (>28%)	19	−$5.00	-2.63%	−$1.12	-17.1%	−$28.25	-15.32%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:: Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:: E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:: R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:: Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:: Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

No upcoming matches with odds available. Please check back later.

Bundesliga Austria Prediction Models

Flat Betting Model

Odds Range Filter

Market ROI Summary

Staking Plan Comparison

By Team Bets

PPG Model

Odds Range Filter

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

PPG Ratings — All Teams

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Worked Example — LASK vs Salzburg

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Grazer AK vs Hartberg

Derived Markets

Correct Score — Top 12

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Team Attack & Defense Strength

How Poisson Predictions Work

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

Elo → Win Probability Table

Elo Rating History — Top 6

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Elo Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

How Elo Ratings Work

Value Scanner