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Botola Pro Morocco Prediction Models

2026/2027

Flat Betting Model

Matches w/ Odds

$10

Stake Per Bet

Best: Home Bet

Worst: Home Bet

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for Botola Pro Morocco. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

Market	Win %	Staked	Return	P&L	ROI
Home Bet	0%	$0	$0	$0.00	0%
Draw Bet	0%	$0	$0	$0.00	0%
Away Bet	0%	$0	$0	$0.00	0%
Over 2.5	0%	$0	$0	$0.00	0%
Under 2.5	0%	$0	$0	$0.00	0%
BTTS Yes	0%	$0	$0	$0.00	0%
Home Favorite	0%	$0	$0	$0.00	0%
Away Underdog	0%	$0	$0	$0.00	0%
Favorite	0%	$0	$0	$0.00	0%
Underdog	0%	$0	$0	$0.00	0%

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

Team	Win %	P&L	ROI
CODM Meknès	0%	$0.00	0%
Difaâ El Jadida	0%	$0.00	0%
FAR Rabat	0%	$0.00	0%
FUS Rabat	0%	$0.00	0%
Hassania Agadir	0%	$0.00	0%
Ittihad Tanger	0%	$0.00	0%
Kawkab Marrakech	0%	$0.00	0%
Maghreb Fès	0%	$0.00	0%
Moghreb Tétouan	0%	$0.00	0%
Raja Casablanca	0%	$0.00	0%
RSB Berkane	0%	$0.00	0%
UTS Rabat	0%	$0.00	0%
Wydad Casablanca	0%	$0.00	0%
Widad Témara	0%	$0.00	0%
Renaissance Zemamra	0%	$0.00	0%
Amal Tiznit	0%	$0.00	0%

PPG Model

Teams

1.38

League Avg PPG

1.08

Home Factor

λ=0.85

WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for Botola Pro Morocco. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds	Result	✓
25 Oct	Kawkab Marrakech vs Difaâ El Jadida	Kawkab Marrakech	54.98%	1.82	1 – 1	✗
25 Oct	Renaissance Zemamra vs FUS Rabat	FUS Rabat	49.92%	2	0 – 1	✓
24 Oct	Moghreb Tétouan vs Widad Témara	Moghreb Tétouan	42.59%	2.35	0 – 3	✗
24 Oct	UTS Rabat vs Wydad Casablanca	UTS Rabat	52.88%	1.89	0 – 1	✗
24 Oct	Amal Tiznit vs CODM Meknès	CODM Meknès	50.63%	1.98	1 – 2	✓

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds
24 Sept	FAR Rabat vs Raja Casablanca	FAR Rabat	48.09%	2.08
28 Oct	Raja Casablanca vs Hassania Agadir	***	0%	0
28 Oct	FAR Rabat vs Ittihad Tanger	🔒 Login or register for free to see predictions data.
29 Oct	Maghreb Fès vs RSB Berkane
30 Oct	Difaâ El Jadida vs UTS Rabat

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

Team	PPG ↓	H-PPG	A-PPG	WPPG	vs Avg
1CODM Meknès	2	1.5	2.33	2.11	+0.62
2Kawkab Marrakech	2	1.33	3	2.04	+0.62
3FAR Rabat	2	3	1	1.92	+0.62
4Ittihad Tanger	1.75	2	1.5	1.75	+0.37
5Maghreb Fès	1.75	2	1.5	1.53	+0.37
6Hassania Agadir	1.75	0.5	3	1.69	+0.37
7Raja Casablanca	1.67	3	1	1.56	+0.29
8Wydad Casablanca	1.6	0.67	3	1.73	+0.22
9UTS Rabat	1.4	1.33	1.5	1.11	+0.02
10Difaâ El Jadida	1.4	1	2	1.54	+0.02
11Widad Témara	1.2	0	2	1.23	-0.18
12FUS Rabat	1	0.5	1.33	1.23	-0.38
13RSB Berkane	1	1	1	1	-0.38
14Amal Tiznit	0.8	0	2	0.73	-0.58
15Moghreb Tétouan	0.6	0.67	0.5	0.5	-0.78
16Renaissance Zemamra	0.2	0	0.33	0.23	-1.18

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

UTS Rabat

PPG: 1.4WPPG: 1.11Gap: ↓ 0.29

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

FUS Rabat

PPG: 1WPPG: 1.23Gap: ↑ 0.23

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Maghreb Fès

PPG: 1.75WPPG: 1.53Gap: ↓ 0.22

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Difaâ El Jadida

PPG: 1.4WPPG: 1.54Gap: ↑ 0.14

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Wydad Casablanca

PPG: 1.6WPPG: 1.73Gap: ↑ 0.13

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Worked Example — Kawkab Marrakech vs Difaâ El Jadida

P(Kawkab Marrakech) = 2.25 / (2.25+1.5) × 1.08

= 0.600 × 1.08 = 54.98% → Fair odds 1.82

P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)

= 17.87% → Fair odds 5.6

P(Difaâ El Jadida) = 1 − 54.98% − 17.87%

= 27.16% → Fair odds 3.68

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

0.25

Home xG (λ)

0.25

Away xG (λ)

0.50

Total E[goals]

League Avg Home

1.51

League Avg Away

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Maghreb Fès vs RSB Berkane

28 Oct · Each cell shows the probability of that exact scoreline. Dixon-Coles corrected (ρ = -0.13). · Upcoming

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	61.1%	14.7%	1.9%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1	14.7%	4.3%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	1.9%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Most likely High Medium Low

Derived Markets

Home Win

17.26%

Fair odds: 5.8

Draw

65.49%

Fair odds: 1.53

Away Win

17.26%

Fair odds: 5.8

Over 0.538.85%/ Under 61.15%Fair: 2.57

Over 1.59.51%/ Under 90.49%Fair: 10.51

Over 2.51.44%/ Under 98.56%Fair: 69.5

Over 3.50.18%/ Under 99.82%Fair: 570.91

Over 4.50.02%/ Under 99.98%Fair: 999

BTTS Yes5.39%Fair: 18.57

BTTS No94.61%Fair: 1.06

Correct Score — Top 12

10-0

61.15%D

20-1

14.67%A

31-0

14.67%H

41-1

4.28%D

50-2

1.9%A

62-0

1.9%H

71-2

0.47%A

82-1

0.47%H

90-3

0.16%A

103-0

0.16%H

112-2

0.06%D

121-3

0.04%A

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Where the low-score correction adds value

Plain Poisson

P(0-0) = 60.6%

P(1-0) = 15.2%

P(0-1) = 15.2%

P(1-1) = 3.8%

✗ Underestimates 0-0, 1-0, 0-1

Dixon-Coles (ρ correction)

P(0-0) = 61.1% (+0.5%)

P(1-0) = 14.7% (-0.5%)

P(0-1) = 14.7% (-0.5%)

P(1-1) = 4.3% (+0.5%)

✓ Fixes low-score underestimation

💡 Why does this matter? Draws in football are dominated by 0-0 and 1-1. Plain Poisson underprices these by 15–20%. Dixon-Coles corrects this, generating better ROI on draw markets.

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

Team	Att (H)	Def (H)	Att (A)	Def (A)	H GP	A GP
Hassania Agadir	1.5	1.32	2.65	2	2	2
Difaâ El Jadida	2	1.99	1.99	1.5	3	2
CODM Meknès	0.5	0.33	1.77	1	2	3
Ittihad Tanger	1.5	0.66	1.32	1.5	2	2
FAR Rabat	1	0	1.32	2	1	1
Kawkab Marrakech	1.67	1.1	0.66	0	3	2
Maghreb Fès	1	0.33	0.99	1.5	2	2
Amal Tiznit	1.33	2.21	0.66	0.5	3	2
Widad Témara	0	0.66	1.32	0.67	2	3
Wydad Casablanca	0.67	0.88	0.99	0	3	2
Renaissance Zemamra	1	1.99	0.66	1.67	2	3
RSB Berkane	2	1.32	0	0	1	2
Raja Casablanca	1	0	0.33	0.5	1	2
UTS Rabat	0.67	0.44	0.33	0.5	3	2
FUS Rabat	0.5	0.66	0.44	0.67	2	3
Moghreb Tétouan	0	0.66	0.66	2.5	3	2

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:: Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:: P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:: Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:: Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:: Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1CODM Meknès

1533

2Kawkab Marrakech

1528

3Raja Casablanca

1517

4FAR Rabat

1516

5Ittihad Tanger

1516

6Hassania Agadir

1514

7Maghreb Fès

1514

8Wydad Casablanca

1513

9RSB Berkane

1502

10Difaâ El Jadida

1501

11UTS Rabat

1494

12FUS Rabat

1490

13Widad Témara

1489

14Amal Tiznit

1466

15Moghreb Tétouan

1463

16Renaissance Zemamra

1443

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo Diff	P(Higher wins)	Fair Odds	Typical Matchup
0	50.0%	2.00	Evenly matched
50	57.1%	1.75	Mid vs mid-lower
100	64.0%	1.56	Top-8 vs bottom-8
150	70.3%	1.42	Top-4 vs relegation
200	76.0%	1.32	Leader vs bottom half
250	80.8%	1.24	Leader vs bottom 3
300	84.9%	1.18	CODM Meknès vs Renaissance Zemamra

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

CODM MeknèsKawkab MarrakechRaja CasablancaFAR RabatIttihad TangerHassania Agadir

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#	Team	Elo	Peak	Δ	GP	W	D	L
1	CODM Meknès	1533	1533	+33	5	3	1	1
2	Kawkab Marrakech	1528	1533	+28	5	3	1	1
3	Raja Casablanca	1517	1517	+17	3	1	2	0
4	FAR Rabat	1516	1516	+16	2	1	1	0
5	Ittihad Tanger	1516	1519	+16	4	2	1	1
6	Hassania Agadir	1514	1519	+14	4	2	1	1
7	Maghreb Fès	1514	1532	+14	4	2	1	1
8	Wydad Casablanca	1513	1513	+13	5	2	2	1
9	RSB Berkane	1502	1507	+2	3	0	3	0
10	Difaâ El Jadida	1501	1501	+1	5	2	1	2
11	UTS Rabat	1494	1532	-6	5	2	1	2
12	FUS Rabat	1490	1500	-10	5	1	2	2
13	Widad Témara	1489	1519	-11	5	2	0	3
14	Amal Tiznit	1466	1500	-34	5	1	1	3
15	Moghreb Tétouan	1463	1501	-37	5	0	3	2
16	Renaissance Zemamra	1443	1500	-57	5	0	1	4

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:: Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:: E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:: R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:: Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:: Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

No upcoming matches with odds available. Please check back later.

Botola Pro Morocco Prediction Models

Flat Betting Model

Odds Range Filter

Market ROI Summary

By Team Bets

PPG Model

Odds Range Filter

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

PPG Ratings — All Teams

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Worked Example — Kawkab Marrakech vs Difaâ El Jadida

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Maghreb Fès vs RSB Berkane

Derived Markets

Correct Score — Top 12

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Team Attack & Defense Strength

How Poisson Predictions Work

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

Elo → Win Probability Table

Elo Rating History — Top 6

Elo Ratings — All Teams

How Elo Ratings Work

Value Scanner