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Allsvenskan Sweden Prediction Models

2026

Flat Betting Model

Matches w/ Odds

$10

Stake Per Bet

+41.82%

Best: Away Underdog

-29.8%

Worst: BTTS Yes

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for Allsvenskan Sweden. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

Market	Bets	Wins	Win %	Staked	Return	P&L	ROI	Best Str.	Worst Str.
Home Bet	92	36	39.13%	$920	$807.5	−$112.50	-12.23%	6	6
Draw Bet	92	19	20.65%	$920	$836.3	−$83.70	-9.1%	3	18
Away Bet	92	37	40.22%	$920	$1203.1	+$283.10	+30.77%	4	6
Over 2.5	87	44	50.57%	$870	$715.4	−$154.60	-17.77%	5	6
Under 2.5	87	43	49.43%	$870	$1046.3	+$176.30	+20.26%	6	5
BTTS Yes	92	39	42.39%	$920	$645.8	−$274.20	-29.8%	4	8
Home Favorite	58	27	46.55%	$580	$447.4	−$132.60	-22.86%	6	4
Away Underdog	39	10	25.64%	$390	$553.1	+$163.10	+41.82%	2	7
Favorite	92	46	50%	$920	$816.3	−$103.70	-11.27%	7	4
Underdog	92	27	29.35%	$920	$1194.3	+$274.30	+29.82%	3	8

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

Market	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Home Bet	92	−$112.50	-12.23%	+$1.90	+1.08%	−$143.91	-15.51%
Draw Bet	92	−$83.70	-9.1%	−$11.19	-12.89%	−$124.45	-13.22%
Away Bet	92	+$283.10	+30.77%	+$101.85	+21.79%	+$223.80	+23.35%
Over 2.5	87	−$154.60	-17.77%	−$9.72	-17.98%	−$151.37	-17.36%
Under 2.5	87	+$176.30	+20.26%	+$14.03	+5.17%	+$182.97	+20.28%
BTTS Yes	92	−$274.20	-29.8%	−$18.08	-31.81%	−$273.38	-29.89%
Home Favorite	58	−$132.60	-22.86%	−$12.58	-62.15%	−$117.12	-20.41%
Away Underdog	39	+$163.10	+41.82%	+$15.26	+15.17%	+$155.76	+38.41%
Favorite	92	−$103.70	-11.27%	−$0.95	-1.22%	−$100.04	-11.02%
Underdog	92	+$274.30	+29.82%	−$2.30	-1.05%	+$278.70	+28.25%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

Team	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Västerås	11	5	45.45%	+$96.50	+87.73%
Elfsborg	12	7	58.33%	+$80.50	+67.08%
AIK	12	4	33.33%	+$63.20	+52.67%
Djurgården	12	8	66.67%	+$45.40	+37.83%
Brommapojkarna	12	5	41.67%	+$31.90	+26.58%
IFK Göteborg	12	7	58.33%	+$26.80	+22.33%
Degerfors	11	3	27.27%	+$21.20	+19.27%
Örgryte	11	2	18.18%	+$15.00	+13.64%
Häcken	12	6	50%	+$9.40	+7.83%
Malmö FF	12	5	41.67%	+$6.10	+5.08%
Halmstad	12	3	25%	−$0.80	-0.67%
Hammarby	11	7	63.64%	−$9.00	-8.18%
Sirius	12	6	50%	−$13.70	-11.42%
GAIS	11	3	27.27%	−$51.20	-46.55%
Mjällby	10	1	10%	−$64.50	-64.5%
Kalmar	11	1	9.09%	−$86.20	-78.36%

PPG Model

Teams

1.38

League Avg PPG

1.08

Home Factor

λ=0.85

WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for Allsvenskan Sweden. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	91	45	49.45%	−$65.00	-7.14%
PPG Home Pick	48	23	47.92%	−$111.30	-23.19%
PPG Away Pick	43	22	51.16%	+$46.30	+10.77%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	92	42	45.65%	−$140.60	-15.28%
PPG Value (fair < market)	92	34	36.96%	+$38.00	+4.13%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:: Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:: Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:: Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:: Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:: Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	91	−$65.00	-7.14%	+$7.59	+6.43%	−$72.92	-8.24%
PPG Home Pick	48	−$111.30	-23.19%	−$6.16	-37.93%	−$97.54	-20.6%
PPG Away Pick	43	+$46.30	+10.77%	−$30.57	-29.78%	+$33.13	+7.88%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	92	−$140.60	-15.28%	−$13.22	-16.58%	−$119.52	-13.19%
PPG Value (fair < market)	92	+$38.00	+4.13%	+$46.97	+20.74%	−$40.96	-4.55%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds	Result	✓
27 Oct	AIK vs Elfsborg	AIK	40.92%	2.44	2 – 2	✗
25 Oct	Mjällby vs Hammarby	Hammarby	54.85%	1.82	0 – 2	✓
25 Oct	GAIS vs IFK Göteborg	GAIS	40.13%	2.49	1 – 1	✗
24 Oct	Djurgården vs Örgryte	Djurgården	70.85%	1.41	2 – 2	✗
24 Oct	Kalmar vs Brommapojkarna	Brommapojkarna	42.03%	2.38	0 – 3	✓

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds
28 Oct	Brommapojkarna vs Häcken	Häcken	41.27%	2.42
28 Oct	Degerfors vs Västerås	***	0%	0
28 Oct	IFK Göteborg vs Djurgården	🔒 Login or register for free to see predictions data.
28 Oct	Halmstad vs Malmö FF
29 Oct	Hammarby vs Sirius

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

Team	PPG ↓	H-PPG	A-PPG	WPPG	vs Avg
1Sirius	2.2	1.85	2.58	1.72	+0.82
2Hammarby	1.96	2.33	1.62	2.15	+0.58
3Djurgården	1.92	1.54	2.33	2.08	+0.54
4Häcken	1.8	1.77	1.83	2.15	+0.42
5Elfsborg	1.65	1.92	1.38	1.68	+0.27
6Västerås	1.52	1.46	1.58	1.52	+0.14
7Malmö FF	1.48	1.23	1.75	1.39	+0.10
8IFK Göteborg	1.48	1.75	1.23	1.91	+0.10
9AIK	1.46	1.15	1.77	1.32	+0.08
10Brommapojkarna	1.32	1.25	1.38	1.46	-0.06
11GAIS	1.24	1.54	0.92	1.04	-0.14
12Mjällby	0.92	0.85	1	0.51	-0.46
13Kalmar	0.88	1.42	0.38	0.69	-0.50
14Degerfors	0.8	0.92	0.69	0.61	-0.58
15Örgryte	0.76	1	0.54	0.86	-0.62
16Halmstad	0.68	0.92	0.46	1.04	-0.70

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

Sirius

PPG: 2.2WPPG: 1.72Gap: ↓ 0.48

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

IFK Göteborg

PPG: 1.48WPPG: 1.91Gap: ↑ 0.43

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Mjällby

PPG: 0.92WPPG: 0.51Gap: ↓ 0.41

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Halmstad

PPG: 0.68WPPG: 1.04Gap: ↑ 0.36

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Häcken

PPG: 1.8WPPG: 2.15Gap: ↑ 0.35

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Worked Example — AIK vs Elfsborg

P(AIK) = 1.48 / (1.48+1.68) × 1.08

= 0.468 × 1.08 = 40.92% → Fair odds 2.44

P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)

= 23.61% → Fair odds 4.24

P(Elfsborg) = 1 − 40.92% − 23.61%

= 35.47% → Fair odds 2.82

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

0.78

Home xG (λ)

1.72

Away xG (λ)

2.50

Total E[goals]

1.6

League Avg Home

1.33

League Avg Away

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Brommapojkarna vs Häcken

27 Oct · Each cell shows the probability of that exact scoreline. Dixon-Coles corrected (ρ = -0.13). · Upcoming

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	9.7%	12.7%	12.2%	7.0%	3.0%	1.0%	0.3%
1	5.0%	12.5%	9.5%	5.4%	2.3%	0.8%	0.2%
2	2.5%	4.3%	3.7%	2.1%	0.9%	0.3%	0.1%
3	0.7%	1.1%	1.0%	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%
4	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Most likely High Medium Low

Derived Markets

Home Win

15.28%

Fair odds: 6.54

Market: 4.16 (24.0%)

Draw

26.43%

Fair odds: 3.78

Market: 4.15 (24.1%)

Away Win

58.29%

Fair odds: 1.72

Market: 1.70 (58.8%)

Over 0.590.34%/ Under 9.66%Fair: 1.11

Over 1.572.65%/ Under 27.35%Fair: 1.38

Over 2.545.51%/ Under 54.49%Fair: 2.2

Over 3.524.09%/ Under 75.91%Fair: 4.15

Over 4.510.7%/ Under 89.3%Fair: 9.34

BTTS Yes45.88%Fair: 2.18

BTTS No54.12%Fair: 1.85

Correct Score — Top 12

10-1

12.71%A

21-1

12.47%D

30-2

12.17%A

40-0

9.66%D

51-2

9.49%A

60-3

6.98%A

71-3

5.44%A

81-0

4.98%H

92-1

4.3%H

102-2

3.7%D

110-4

3%A

122-0

2.5%H

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Where the low-score correction adds value

Plain Poisson

P(0-0) = 8.2%

P(1-0) = 6.4%

P(0-1) = 14.1%

P(1-1) = 11.0%

✗ Underestimates 0-0, 1-0, 0-1

Dixon-Coles (ρ correction)

P(0-0) = 9.7% (+1.4%)

P(1-0) = 5.0% (-1.4%)

P(0-1) = 12.7% (-1.4%)

P(1-1) = 12.5% (+1.5%)

✓ Fixes low-score underestimation

💡 Why does this matter? Draws in football are dominated by 0-0 and 1-1. Plain Poisson underprices these by 15–20%. Dixon-Coles corrects this, generating better ROI on draw markets.

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Poisson/Dixon-Coles model — xG computed only from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	79	31	39.24%	+$102.20	+12.94%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	42	22	52.38%	−$71.70	-17.07%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	20	12	60%	+$19.30	+9.65%
DC Draw (>28%)	27	5	18.52%	−$76.50	-28.33%
DC Over 2.5 Value	23	15	65.22%	+$13.70	+5.96%
DC BTTS Value	21	12	57.14%	−$14.30	-6.81%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Dixon-Coles bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	79	+$102.20	+12.94%	+$29.92	+18.31%	+$82.26	+10.44%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	42	−$71.70	-17.07%	−$26.74	-90.49%	−$49.51	-11.93%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	20	+$19.30	+9.65%	−$11.28	-27.42%	+$27.44	+11.8%
DC Draw (>28%)	27	−$76.50	-28.33%	$0.00	0%	−$75.41	-27.11%
DC Over 2.5 Value	23	+$13.70	+5.96%	−$40.55	-41.6%	+$13.42	+5.83%
DC BTTS Value	21	−$14.30	-6.81%	+$1.45	+37.18%	−$18.67	-8.88%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

Team	Att (H)	Def (H)	Att (A)	Def (A)	H GP	A GP
Sirius	1.35	1.1	1.75	0.68	13	12
Hammarby	1.77	0.44	1.04	0.67	12	13
Djurgården	1.54	0.93	1.25	0.36	13	12
Häcken	1.2	1.04	1.38	0.63	13	12
AIK	1.01	1.68	1.21	0.77	13	13
Brommapojkarna	0.78	0.94	1.39	1.35	12	13
Malmö FF	1.2	1.21	0.81	0.68	13	12
Elfsborg	1.01	0.52	1.04	0.82	13	13
Västerås	0.91	0.87	1.07	1.2	13	12
IFK Göteborg	0.83	0.81	1.1	1.49	12	13
Örgryte	1.09	1.38	0.58	1.63	12	13
GAIS	0.82	0.35	0.88	1.04	13	12
Mjällby	0.58	1.21	1	1.09	13	12
Kalmar	0.73	1.25	0.52	1.01	12	13
Degerfors	0.63	1.07	0.52	1.15	12	13
Halmstad	0.47	1.19	0.52	1.3	12	13

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:: Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:: P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:: Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:: Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:: Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1Sirius

1598

2Hammarby

1590

3Djurgården

1588

4Häcken

1573

5Elfsborg

1565

6IFK Göteborg

1541

7AIK

1521

8Västerås

1515

9Malmö FF

1507

10Brommapojkarna

1498

11GAIS

1476

12Mjällby

1418

13Örgryte

1413

14Kalmar

1403

15Halmstad

1401

16Degerfors

1394

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo Diff	P(Higher wins)	Fair Odds	Typical Matchup
0	50.0%	2.00	Evenly matched
50	57.1%	1.75	Mid vs mid-lower
100	64.0%	1.56	Top-8 vs bottom-8
150	70.3%	1.42	Top-4 vs relegation
200	76.0%	1.32	Leader vs bottom half
250	80.8%	1.24	Leader vs bottom 3
300	84.9%	1.18	Sirius vs Degerfors

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

SiriusHammarbyDjurgårdenHäckenElfsborgIFK Göteborg

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#	Team	Elo	Peak	Δ	GP	W	D	L
1	Sirius	1598	1657	+98	25	17	4	4
2	Hammarby	1590	1590	+90	25	15	4	6
3	Djurgården	1588	1598	+88	25	15	3	7
4	Häcken	1573	1573	+73	25	12	9	4
5	Elfsborg	1565	1570	+65	26	11	10	5
6	IFK Göteborg	1541	1541	+41	25	10	7	8
7	AIK	1521	1569	+21	26	10	8	8
8	Västerås	1515	1545	+15	25	11	5	9
9	Malmö FF	1507	1535	+7	25	11	4	10
10	Brommapojkarna	1498	1524	-2	25	9	6	10
11	GAIS	1476	1526	-24	25	8	7	10
12	Mjällby	1418	1536	-82	25	5	8	12
13	Örgryte	1413	1516	-87	25	4	7	14
14	Kalmar	1403	1500	-97	25	6	4	15
15	Halmstad	1401	1500	-99	25	4	5	16
16	Degerfors	1394	1500	-106	25	5	5	15

Elo Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	78	20	26%	+$73.20	+9.38%
Elo Favourite	92	44	48%	−$59.80	-6.5%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	24	14	58%	−$21.40	-8.92%
Elo Away Pick (>50%)	4	3	75%	+$1.90	+4.75%
Elo Draw (>28%)	26	7	27%	+$10.60	+4.08%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	78	+$73.20	+9.38%	−$25.13	-31.78%	+$7.05	+0.83%
Elo Favourite	92	−$59.80	-6.5%	+$33.84	+17.75%	−$101.30	-10.51%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	24	−$21.40	-8.92%	+$9.33	+68.55%	−$23.89	-10.1%
Elo Away Pick (>50%)	4	+$1.90	+4.75%	$0.00	0%	+$6.55	+15.99%
Elo Draw (>28%)	26	+$10.60	+4.08%	−$2.18	-100%	+$11.43	+4.21%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:: Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:: E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:: R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:: Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:: Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

Upcoming Fixtures — Value Identified by Each Model Independently

Min EV threshold2%

Show models

7Value bets found

5Multi-model consensus

+5.4%Avg EV found

Consensus across 3 models · Odds: H 4.16 · D 4.15 · A 1.70

Home Win

27.3%

Mkt implied: 24.0%

EV +3.2%

Draw

27.8%

Mkt implied: 24.1%

EV +3.7%

Away Win

44.9%

Mkt implied: 58.8%

EV -13.9%

PPG: H 33% D 25% A 41%Dixon-Coles: H 15% D 26% A 58%Elo: H 33% D 32% A 35%

Consensus across 0 model · Odds: H 0.00 · A 0.00

Home Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Away Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Consensus across 0 model · Odds: H 0.00 · A 0.00

Home Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Away Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Consensus across 0 model · Odds: H 0.00 · A 0.00

Home Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Away Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Consensus across 0 model · Odds: H 0.00 · A 0.00

Home Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Away Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Consensus across 0 model · Odds: H 0.00 · A 0.00

Home Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Away Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Consensus across 0 model · Odds: H 0.00 · A 0.00

Home Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Away Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

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Allsvenskan Sweden Prediction Models

Flat Betting Model

Odds Range Filter

Market ROI Summary

Staking Plan Comparison

By Team Bets

PPG Model

Odds Range Filter

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

PPG Ratings — All Teams

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Worked Example — AIK vs Elfsborg

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Brommapojkarna vs Häcken

Derived Markets

Correct Score — Top 12

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Team Attack & Defense Strength

How Poisson Predictions Work

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

Elo → Win Probability Table

Elo Rating History — Top 6

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Elo Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

How Elo Ratings Work

Value Scanner

Upcoming Fixtures — Value Identified by Each Model Independently