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A-League Australia Prediction Models

2026/2027

Flat Betting Model

Matches w/ Odds

$10

Stake Per Bet

+49.09%

Best: Home Bet

-100%

Worst: Away Bet

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for A-League Australia. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

Market	Bets	Wins	Win %	Staked	Return	P&L	ROI	Best Str.	Worst Str.
Home Bet	11	7	63.64%	$110	$164	+$54.00	+49.09%	2	1
Draw Bet	11	4	36.36%	$110	$152	+$42.00	+38.18%	1	2
Away Bet	11	0	0%	$110	$0	−$110.00	-100%	0	11
Over 2.5	11	7	63.64%	$110	$118.4	+$8.40	+7.64%	5	2
Under 2.5	11	4	36.36%	$110	$87.7	−$22.30	-20.27%	2	5
BTTS Yes	11	9	81.82%	$110	$142.3	+$32.30	+29.36%	8	1
Home Favorite	9	6	66.67%	$90	$131	+$41.00	+45.56%	3	1
Away Underdog	1	0	0%	$10	$0	−$10.00	-100%	0	1
Favorite	11	6	54.55%	$110	$131	+$21.00	+19.09%	2	2
Underdog	11	1	9.09%	$110	$33	−$77.00	-70%	1	6

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

Market	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Home Bet	11	+$54.00	+49.09%	+$5.00	+12.67%	+$58.44	+51.9%
Draw Bet	11	+$42.00	+38.18%	−$3.99	-15.62%	+$34.90	+31.78%
Away Bet	11	−$110.00	-100%	$0.00	0%	−$109.95	-100%
Over 2.5	11	+$8.40	+7.64%	−$9.86	-19.7%	+$6.87	+6.15%
Under 2.5	11	−$22.30	-20.27%	$0.00	0%	−$23.93	-22.08%
BTTS Yes	11	+$32.30	+29.36%	+$21.60	+21.4%	+$32.67	+29.31%
Home Favorite	9	+$41.00	+45.56%	+$10.25	+34.19%	+$42.84	+46.65%
Away Underdog	1	−$10.00	-100%	$0.00	0%	−$10.00	-100%
Favorite	11	+$21.00	+19.09%	−$1.60	-19.56%	+$19.10	+17.07%
Underdog	11	−$77.00	-70%	$0.00	0%	−$76.39	-69.98%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

Team	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Wellington Phoenix	2	2	100%	+$31.50	+157.5%
Brisbane Roar FC	1	1	100%	+$11.00	+110%
Auckland	2	1	50%	+$5.50	+27.5%
Western Sydney Wanderers	2	1	50%	+$4.00	+20%
Sydney	2	1	50%	+$2.50	+12.5%
Macarthur FC	2	1	50%	−$0.50	-2.5%
Adelaide United FC	1	0	0%	−$10.00	-100%
Central Coast Mariners	2	0	0%	−$20.00	-100%
Melbourne Victory	2	0	0%	−$20.00	-100%
Newcastle Jets FC	2	0	0%	−$20.00	-100%
Perth Glory	2	0	0%	−$20.00	-100%
Melbourne City FC	2	0	0%	−$20.00	-100%

PPG Model

Teams

1.33

League Avg PPG

1.08

Home Factor

λ=0.85

WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for A-League Australia. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	11	4	36.36%	−$25.50	-23.18%
PPG Home Pick	6	4	66.67%	+$24.50	+40.83%
PPG Away Pick	5	0	0%	−$50.00	-100%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	11	4	36.36%	−$25.50	-23.18%
PPG Value (fair < market)	11	6	54.55%	+$30.00	+27.27%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:: Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:: Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:: Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:: Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:: Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	11	−$25.50	-23.18%	−$11.42	-100%	−$16.91	-15.81%
PPG Home Pick	6	+$24.50	+40.83%	+$2.75	+84.88%	+$28.53	+45.6%
PPG Away Pick	5	−$50.00	-100%	$0.00	0%	−$40.03	-100%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	11	−$25.50	-23.18%	−$11.42	-100%	−$16.91	-15.81%
PPG Value (fair < market)	11	+$30.00	+27.27%	−$12.29	-41.68%	+$35.49	+31.77%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds	Result	✓
25 Oct	Sydney vs Adelaide United FC	Sydney	40.15%	2.49	2 – 1	✓
25 Oct	Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners	Wellington Phoenix	57.09%	1.75	2 – 0	✓
24 Oct	Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City FC	Melbourne Victory	43.52%	2.3	1 – 1	✗
24 Oct	Western Sydney Wanderers vs Auckland	Auckland	60.56%	1.65	5 – 2	✗
24 Oct	Newcastle Jets FC vs Macarthur FC	Newcastle Jets FC	39.86%	2.51	1 – 1	✗

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds
30 Oct	Brisbane Roar FC vs Auckland	Brisbane Roar FC	63.49%	1.57
31 Oct	Newcastle Jets FC vs Wellington Phoenix	***	0%	0
31 Oct	Melbourne City FC vs Sydney	🔒 Login or register for free to see predictions data.
31 Oct	Macarthur FC vs Western Sydney Wanderers
01 Nov	Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

Team	PPG ↓	H-PPG	A-PPG	WPPG	vs Avg
1Wellington Phoenix	3	3	0	3	+1.67
2Brisbane Roar FC	3	3	0	3	+1.67
3Sydney	2	2	0	2.08	+0.67
4Western Sydney Wanderers	2	3	1	2.08	+0.67
5Macarthur FC	2	3	1	1.92	+0.67
6Auckland	1.5	3	0	1.38	+0.17
7Newcastle Jets FC	1	1	1	1	-0.33
8Melbourne City FC	0.5	0	0.5	0.54	-0.83
9Central Coast Mariners	0.5	1	0	0.46	-0.83
10Melbourne Victory	0.5	1	0	0.54	-0.83
11Perth Glory	0	0	0	0	-1.33
12Adelaide United FC	0	0	0	0	-1.33

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

Auckland

PPG: 1.5WPPG: 1.38Gap: ↓ 0.12

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Sydney

PPG: 2WPPG: 2.08Gap: ↑ 0.08

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Western Sydney Wanderers

PPG: 2WPPG: 2.08Gap: ↑ 0.08

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Macarthur FC

PPG: 2WPPG: 1.92Gap: ↓ 0.08

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Melbourne City FC

PPG: 0.5WPPG: 0.54Gap: ↑ 0.04

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Worked Example — Sydney vs Adelaide United FC

P(Sydney) = 1.31 / (1.31+1.57) × 1.08

= 0.455 × 1.08 = 40.15% → Fair odds 2.49

P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)

= 22.36% → Fair odds 4.47

P(Adelaide United FC) = 1 − 40.15% − 22.36%

= 37.49% → Fair odds 2.67

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

1.39

Home xG (λ)

1.49

Away xG (λ)

2.88

Total E[goals]

League Avg Home

League Avg Away

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Brisbane Roar FC vs Auckland

29 Oct · Each cell shows the probability of that exact scoreline. Dixon-Coles corrected (ρ = -0.13). · Upcoming

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7.1%	6.9%	6.2%	3.1%	1.1%	0.3%	0.1%
1	6.3%	13.2%	8.7%	4.3%	1.6%	0.5%	0.1%
2	5.4%	8.1%	6.0%	3.0%	1.1%	0.3%	0.1%
3	2.5%	3.8%	2.8%	1.4%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
4	0.9%	1.3%	1.0%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%
5	0.2%	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
6	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Most likely High Medium Low

Derived Markets

Home Win

33.82%

Fair odds: 2.96

Draw

27.9%

Fair odds: 3.58

Away Win

38.28%

Fair odds: 2.61

Over 0.592.86%/ Under 7.14%Fair: 1.08

Over 1.579.7%/ Under 20.3%Fair: 1.25

Over 2.554.87%/ Under 45.13%Fair: 1.82

Over 3.532.49%/ Under 67.51%Fair: 3.08

Over 4.516.37%/ Under 83.63%Fair: 6.11

BTTS Yes59.66%Fair: 1.68

BTTS No40.34%Fair: 2.48

Correct Score — Top 12

11-1

13.16%D

21-2

8.67%A

32-1

8.09%H

40-0

7.14%D

50-1

6.86%A

61-0

6.3%H

70-2

6.24%A

82-2

6.03%D

92-0

5.43%H

101-3

4.31%A

113-1

3.75%H

120-3

3.1%A

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Where the low-score correction adds value

Plain Poisson

P(0-0) = 5.6%

P(1-0) = 7.8%

P(0-1) = 8.4%

P(1-1) = 11.6%

✗ Underestimates 0-0, 1-0, 0-1

Dixon-Coles (ρ correction)

P(0-0) = 7.1% (+1.5%)

P(1-0) = 6.3% (-1.5%)

P(0-1) = 6.9% (-1.5%)

P(1-1) = 13.2% (+1.5%)

✓ Fixes low-score underestimation

💡 Why does this matter? Draws in football are dominated by 0-0 and 1-1. Plain Poisson underprices these by 15–20%. Dixon-Coles corrects this, generating better ROI on draw markets.

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Poisson/Dixon-Coles model — xG computed only from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	7	3	42.86%	+$4.00	+5.71%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	4	2	50%	+$1.00	+2.5%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	1	0	0%	−$10.00	-100%
DC Draw (>28%)	3	1	33.33%	+$10.00	+33.33%
DC Over 2.5 Value	3	0	0%	−$30.00	-100%
DC BTTS Value	1	0	0%	−$10.00	-100%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Dixon-Coles bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	7	+$4.00	+5.71%	$0.00	0%	+$6.85	+7.68%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	4	+$1.00	+2.5%	$0.00	0%	+$3.85	+9.59%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	1	−$10.00	-100%	$0.00	0%	−$10.00	-100%
DC Draw (>28%)	3	+$10.00	+33.33%	$0.00	0%	+$7.90	+24.61%
DC Over 2.5 Value	3	−$30.00	-100%	$0.00	0%	−$27.69	-100%
DC BTTS Value	1	−$10.00	-100%	$0.00	0%	−$10.00	-100%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

Team	Att (H)	Def (H)	Att (A)	Def (A)	H GP	A GP
Western Sydney Wanderers	0.93	1.25	0.73	1.03	1	1
Auckland	1.05	0.91	1.45	0.9	1	1
Wellington Phoenix	0.99	1.05	0.98	1.29	2	0
Brisbane Roar FC	0.77	1.03	0.75	0.93	1	0
Macarthur FC	1.12	1.23	0.89	1.03	1	1
Newcastle Jets FC	1.33	1.11	1.5	0.97	1	1
Sydney	0.81	0.67	0.75	0.59	2	0
Melbourne City FC	0.93	0.75	0.91	1.01	0	2
Perth Glory	0.83	0.93	0.95	1.13	0	2
Central Coast Mariners	0.9	1.15	0.87	1.24	1	1
Melbourne Victory	1.13	0.84	1.03	0.98	1	1
Adelaide United FC	1.2	1.07	1.15	0.97	0	1

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:: Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:: P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:: Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:: Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:: Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1Wellington Phoenix

1525

2Western Sydney Wanderers

1516

3Macarthur FC

1516

4Brisbane Roar FC

1512

5Sydney

1510

6Newcastle Jets FC

1500

7Auckland

1500

8Melbourne City FC

1490

9Adelaide United FC

1487

10Central Coast Mariners

1485

11Melbourne Victory

1484

12Perth Glory

1474

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo Diff	P(Higher wins)	Fair Odds	Typical Matchup
0	50.0%	2.00	Evenly matched
50	57.1%	1.75	Mid vs mid-lower
100	64.0%	1.56	Top-8 vs bottom-8
150	70.3%	1.42	Top-4 vs relegation
200	76.0%	1.32	Leader vs bottom half
250	80.8%	1.24	Leader vs bottom 3
300	84.9%	1.18	Wellington Phoenix vs Perth Glory

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

Wellington PhoenixWestern Sydney WanderersMacarthur FCBrisbane Roar FCSydneyNewcastle Jets FC

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#	Team	Elo	Peak	Δ	GP	W	D	L
1	Wellington Phoenix	1525	1525	+25	2	2	0	0
2	Western Sydney Wanderers	1516	1516	+16	2	1	1	0
3	Macarthur FC	1516	1516	+16	2	1	1	0
4	Brisbane Roar FC	1512	1512	+12	1	1	0	0
5	Sydney	1510	1510	+10	2	1	1	0
6	Newcastle Jets FC	1500	1503	+0	2	0	2	0
7	Auckland	1500	1513	-0	2	1	0	1
8	Melbourne City FC	1490	1500	-10	2	0	1	1
9	Adelaide United FC	1487	1500	-13	1	0	0	1
10	Central Coast Mariners	1485	1500	-15	2	0	1	1
11	Melbourne Victory	1484	1500	-16	2	0	1	1
12	Perth Glory	1474	1500	-26	2	0	0	2

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:: Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:: E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:: R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:: Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:: Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

No upcoming matches with odds available. Please check back later.

A-League Australia Prediction Models

Flat Betting Model

Odds Range Filter

Market ROI Summary

Staking Plan Comparison

By Team Bets

PPG Model

Odds Range Filter

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

PPG Ratings — All Teams

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Worked Example — Sydney vs Adelaide United FC

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Brisbane Roar FC vs Auckland

Derived Markets

Correct Score — Top 12

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Team Attack & Defense Strength

How Poisson Predictions Work

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

Elo → Win Probability Table

Elo Rating History — Top 6

Elo Ratings — All Teams

How Elo Ratings Work

Value Scanner