Expected Goals (xG) Calculator
Calculate expected goals (xG) for any football match using attack strength, defence weakness, and league averages. Includes Poisson probability grid for all scorelines.
| Home T ↓ / Away T → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 1 | 11.2% | 10.2% | 4.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 2 | 10.9% | 9.9% | 4.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 3 | 7.1% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 4 | 3.4% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 5 | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 6 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Expected Goals (xG) Calculator
The Expected Goals model is one of the most powerful tools in modern football analytics. Rather than relying on subjective assessments, xG quantifies how many goals a team should score based on the quality and quantity of chances created. Our calculator uses a simplified but effective Poisson-based approach that you can apply to any match.
How the xG Model Works
The calculator compares each team's attacking output and defensive record against league averages. Home Attack Strength measures how many more (or fewer) goals the home team scores compared to the average home team. Away Defence Weakness measures how many more (or fewer) goals the away team concedes compared to the average away team. Multiplying these factors by the league average home goals gives the Home xG. The same process in reverse gives the Away xG.
Poisson Distribution
Once we have xG values for each team, we apply the Poisson distribution to calculate the probability of every possible scoreline. Poisson is ideal for modelling rare, independent events like goals in football. A team with an xG of 1.5 has a 22.3% chance of scoring exactly 1 goal, a 33.5% chance of scoring exactly 2, and so on. By combining both teams' Poisson distributions, we calculate the probability of every scoreline from 0-0 to 5-5 and beyond.