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Veikkausliiga Finland Prediction Models

2026

Flat Betting Model

Matches w/ Odds

$10

Stake Per Bet

+45.34%

Best: Under 2.5

-34.6%

Worst: Over 2.5

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for Veikkausliiga Finland. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

Market	Bets	Wins	Win %	Staked	Return	P&L	ROI	Best Str.	Worst Str.
Home Bet	68	27	39.71%	$680	$590.7	−$89.30	-13.13%	2	7
Draw Bet	68	17	25%	$680	$639	−$41.00	-6.03%	2	13
Away Bet	68	24	35.29%	$680	$835.3	+$155.30	+22.84%	5	11
Over 2.5	68	26	38.24%	$680	$444.7	−$235.30	-34.6%	5	6
Under 2.5	68	42	61.76%	$680	$988.3	+$308.30	+45.34%	6	5
BTTS Yes	68	29	42.65%	$680	$488.2	−$191.80	-28.21%	4	7
Home Favorite	45	23	51.11%	$450	$439.6	−$10.40	-2.31%	4	5
Away Underdog	24	5	20.83%	$240	$263.3	+$23.30	+9.71%	1	7
Favorite	68	35	51.47%	$680	$698.3	+$18.30	+2.69%	5	5
Underdog	68	15	22.06%	$680	$701.2	+$21.20	+3.12%	3	14

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

Market	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Home Bet	68	−$89.30	-13.13%	−$30.68	-27.37%	−$88.09	-13.01%
Draw Bet	68	−$41.00	-6.03%	−$8.19	-94.46%	−$37.32	-5.27%
Away Bet	68	+$155.30	+22.84%	+$133.30	+33.38%	+$59.35	+8.35%
Over 2.5	68	−$235.30	-34.6%	$0.00	0%	−$220.36	-32.83%
Under 2.5	68	+$308.30	+45.34%	+$190.21	+25.44%	+$322.54	+44.86%
BTTS Yes	68	−$191.80	-28.21%	$0.00	0%	−$190.55	-28.28%
Home Favorite	45	−$10.40	-2.31%	−$11.39	-28.68%	−$22.27	-5%
Away Underdog	24	+$23.30	+9.71%	−$2.37	-44.63%	+$17.90	+6.9%
Favorite	68	+$18.30	+2.69%	−$39.23	-28.26%	−$8.19	-1.21%
Underdog	68	+$21.20	+3.12%	+$70.60	+107.89%	−$120.60	-17.13%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

Team	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Mariehamn	10	4	40%	+$140.20	+140.2%
Oulu	12	5	41.67%	+$91.20	+76%
Inter Turku	12	7	58.33%	+$31.00	+25.83%
Lahti	10	5	50%	+$10.90	+10.9%
HJK	12	7	58.33%	+$9.10	+7.58%
Ilves	10	5	50%	−$2.40	-2.4%
Gnistan	12	3	25%	−$14.50	-12.08%
SJK	10	3	30%	−$17.70	-17.7%
VPS	12	4	33.33%	−$25.00	-20.83%
KuPS	12	4	33.33%	−$32.80	-27.33%
TPS	10	2	20%	−$34.40	-34.4%
Jaro	12	2	16.67%	−$69.60	-58%
PK-35	2	0	0%	−$20.00	-100%

PPG Model

Teams

1.3

League Avg PPG

1.08

Home Factor

λ=0.85

WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for Veikkausliiga Finland. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	66	30	45.45%	−$53.20	-8.06%
PPG Home Pick	34	16	47.06%	−$61.20	-18%
PPG Away Pick	32	14	43.75%	+$8.00	+2.5%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	67	30	44.78%	−$41.00	-6.12%
PPG Value (fair < market)	67	23	34.33%	−$30.30	-4.52%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:: Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:: Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:: Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:: Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:: Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	66	−$53.20	-8.06%	−$41.60	-25.76%	−$63.36	-9.69%
PPG Home Pick	34	−$61.20	-18%	−$10.78	-44.86%	−$55.62	-16.55%
PPG Away Pick	32	+$8.00	+2.5%	+$4.06	+2.18%	+$3.61	+1.13%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	67	−$41.00	-6.12%	−$33.45	-26.99%	−$35.33	-5.46%
PPG Value (fair < market)	67	−$30.30	-4.52%	−$9.87	-4.86%	−$71.25	-11.2%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds	Result	✓
25 Oct	HJK vs KuPS	HJK	42.59%	2.35	2 – 2	✗
25 Oct	Jaro vs PK-35	PK-35	39.49%	2.53	1 – 0	✗
24 Oct	Gnistan vs Oulu	Gnistan	44.04%	2.27	3 – 4	✗
24 Oct	VPS vs Inter Turku	Inter Turku	41.49%	2.41	0 – 1	✓
18 Oct	KuPS vs VPS	KuPS	49.06%	2.04	2 – 0	✓

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds
28 Oct	Oulu vs VPS	Oulu	45.41%	2.2
29 Oct	Inter Turku vs HJK	***	0%	0
29 Oct	KuPS vs Gnistan	🔒 Login or register for free to see predictions data.
01 Nov	Oulu vs KuPS
02 Nov	Inter Turku vs Gnistan

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

Team	PPG ↓	H-PPG	A-PPG	WPPG	vs Avg
1Inter Turku	1.9	1.86	1.93	1.91	+0.60
2HJK	1.79	2	1.57	2.04	+0.49
3KuPS	1.79	1.86	1.73	1.44	+0.49
4Oulu	1.48	1.43	1.53	1.52	+0.18
5Gnistan	1.45	1.53	1.36	1.02	+0.15
6Lahti	1.44	1.79	1.08	1.6	+0.14
7Ilves	1.41	2	0.77	1.87	+0.11
8VPS	1.34	1.6	1.07	0.91	+0.04
9TPS	1.19	1.71	0.62	0.69	-0.11
10SJK	1	1.38	0.64	1.24	-0.30
11Jaro	0.86	1.29	0.47	1.29	-0.44
12Mariehamn	0.7	1.08	0.36	1.13	-0.60
13PK-35	0.5	1	0	0.46	-0.80

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

TPS

PPG: 1.19WPPG: 0.69Gap: ↓ 0.50

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Ilves

PPG: 1.41WPPG: 1.87Gap: ↑ 0.46

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

VPS

PPG: 1.34WPPG: 0.91Gap: ↓ 0.43

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Jaro

PPG: 0.86WPPG: 1.29Gap: ↑ 0.43

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Gnistan

PPG: 1.45WPPG: 1.02Gap: ↓ 0.43

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Worked Example — HJK vs KuPS

P(HJK) = 1.82 / (1.82+1.82) × 1.08

= 0.500 × 1.08 = 42.59% → Fair odds 2.35

P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)

= 26.8% → Fair odds 3.73

P(KuPS) = 1 − 42.59% − 26.8%

= 30.61% → Fair odds 3.27

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

1.13

Home xG (λ)

0.83

Away xG (λ)

1.96

Total E[goals]

1.45

League Avg Home

1.08

League Avg Away

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Oulu vs VPS

27 Oct · Each cell shows the probability of that exact scoreline. Dixon-Coles corrected (ρ = -0.13). · Upcoming

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	15.8%	10.0%	4.8%	1.3%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%
1	14.2%	14.9%	5.5%	1.5%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%
2	9.0%	7.5%	3.1%	0.9%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
3	3.4%	2.8%	1.2%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
4	1.0%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Most likely High Medium Low

Derived Markets

Home Win

40.79%

Fair odds: 2.45

Market: 2.36 (42.4%)

Draw

34.18%

Fair odds: 2.93

Market: 3.30 (30.3%)

Away Win

25.03%

Fair odds: 4

Market: 2.91 (34.4%)

Over 0.584.19%/ Under 15.81%Fair: 1.19

Over 1.560.02%/ Under 39.98%Fair: 1.67

Over 2.531.24%/ Under 68.76%Fair: 3.2

Over 3.513.56%/ Under 86.44%Fair: 7.38

Over 4.54.89%/ Under 95.11%Fair: 20.44

BTTS Yes39.89%Fair: 2.51

BTTS No60.11%Fair: 1.66

Correct Score — Top 12

10-0

15.81%D

21-1

14.93%D

31-0

14.2%H

40-1

9.98%A

52-0

8.99%H

62-1

7.47%H

71-2

5.48%A

80-2

4.85%A

93-0

3.39%H

102-2

3.1%D

113-1

2.81%H

121-3

1.52%A

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Where the low-score correction adds value

Plain Poisson

P(0-0) = 14.1%

P(1-0) = 15.9%

P(0-1) = 11.7%

P(1-1) = 13.2%

✗ Underestimates 0-0, 1-0, 0-1

Dixon-Coles (ρ correction)

P(0-0) = 15.8% (+1.7%)

P(1-0) = 14.2% (-1.7%)

P(0-1) = 10.0% (-1.7%)

P(1-1) = 14.9% (+1.7%)

✓ Fixes low-score underestimation

💡 Why does this matter? Draws in football are dominated by 0-0 and 1-1. Plain Poisson underprices these by 15–20%. Dixon-Coles corrects this, generating better ROI on draw markets.

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Poisson/Dixon-Coles model — xG computed only from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	60	16	26.67%	−$208.70	-34.78%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	22	13	59.09%	+$12.60	+5.73%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	8	1	12.5%	−$58.40	-73%
DC Draw (>28%)	33	6	18.18%	−$105.90	-32.09%
DC Over 2.5 Value	13	5	38.46%	−$42.50	-32.69%
DC BTTS Value	6	2	33.33%	−$27.50	-45.83%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Dixon-Coles bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	60	−$208.70	-34.78%	−$49.23	-31.94%	−$179.07	-33.45%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	22	+$12.60	+5.73%	−$22.50	-26.65%	+$7.73	+3.67%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	8	−$58.40	-73%	$0.00	0%	−$59.03	-73.21%
DC Draw (>28%)	33	−$105.90	-32.09%	−$6.18	-100%	−$108.00	-32.98%
DC Over 2.5 Value	13	−$42.50	-32.69%	$0.00	0%	−$43.05	-33.3%
DC BTTS Value	6	−$27.50	-45.83%	$0.00	0%	−$25.17	-43.49%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

Team	Att (H)	Def (H)	Att (A)	Def (A)	H GP	A GP
HJK	1.47	1.05	1.52	0.84	15	14
Ilves	1.18	0.79	1.5	1.43	14	13
KuPS	1.13	0.99	1.36	0.6	14	15
Gnistan	1.2	1.42	1.12	0.89	15	14
Lahti	1.23	0.86	0.71	0.69	14	13
Oulu	0.79	1.06	1.23	0.97	14	15
Inter Turku	0.69	0.53	1.3	0.55	14	15
VPS	0.92	0.86	0.73	0.99	15	14
SJK	1.01	1.14	0.66	1.03	13	14
TPS	0.89	0.86	0.78	1.06	14	13
Jaro	0.84	1.19	0.43	1.47	14	15
Mariehamn	0.58	1.28	0.73	1.53	13	14
PK-35	0.69	0.93	0	0.69	1	1

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:: Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:: P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:: Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:: Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:: Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1Inter Turku

1606

2HJK

1597

3KuPS

1581

4Gnistan

1517

5Oulu

1509

6Lahti

1507

7Ilves

1506

8VPS

1478

9PK-35

1476

10SJK

1450

11TPS

1438

12Jaro

1428

13Mariehamn

1406

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo Diff	P(Higher wins)	Fair Odds	Typical Matchup
0	50.0%	2.00	Evenly matched
50	57.1%	1.75	Mid vs mid-lower
100	64.0%	1.56	Top-8 vs bottom-8
150	70.3%	1.42	Top-4 vs relegation
200	76.0%	1.32	Inter Turku vs Mariehamn
250	80.8%	1.24	Leader vs bottom 3
300	84.9%	1.18	Inter Turku vs Mariehamn

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

Inter TurkuHJKKuPSGnistanOuluLahti

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#	Team	Elo	Peak	Δ	GP	W	D	L
1	Inter Turku	1606	1616	+106	29	15	10	4
2	HJK	1597	1601	+97	29	15	7	7
3	KuPS	1581	1634	+81	29	14	10	5
4	Gnistan	1517	1571	+17	29	11	9	9
5	Oulu	1509	1568	+9	29	13	4	12
6	Lahti	1507	1538	+7	27	11	6	10
7	Ilves	1506	1506	+6	27	11	5	11
8	VPS	1478	1562	-22	29	11	6	12
9	PK-35	1476	1500	-24	2	0	1	1
10	SJK	1450	1500	-50	27	6	9	12
11	TPS	1438	1538	-62	27	8	8	11
12	Jaro	1428	1500	-72	29	5	10	14
13	Mariehamn	1406	1500	-94	27	4	7	16

Elo Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	50	8	16%	−$169.80	-33.96%
Elo Favourite	66	28	42%	−$108.90	-16.5%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	12	4	33%	−$61.60	-51.33%
Elo Draw (>28%)	27	6	22%	−$45.00	-16.67%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	50	−$169.80	-33.96%	−$16.76	-25.45%	−$216.11	-40.81%
Elo Favourite	66	−$108.90	-16.5%	−$40.40	-83.33%	−$85.76	-13%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	12	−$61.60	-51.33%	−$9.93	-100%	−$53.67	-46.89%
Elo Draw (>28%)	27	−$45.00	-16.67%	−$0.04	-100%	−$47.66	-17.44%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:: Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:: E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:: R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:: Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:: Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

Upcoming Fixtures — Value Identified by Each Model Independently

Min EV threshold2%

Show models

2Value bets found

1Multi-model consensus

+7.7%Avg EV found

Consensus across 3 models · Odds: H 2.36 · D 3.30 · A 2.91

Home Win

42.5%

Mkt implied: 42.4%

EV +0.1%

Draw

28.4%

Mkt implied: 30.3%

EV -1.9%

Away Win

29.1%

Mkt implied: 34.4%

EV -5.3%

PPG: H 38% D 27% A 34%Dixon-Coles: H 41% D 34% A 25%Elo: H 49% D 24% A 28%

Consensus across 0 model · Odds: H 0.00 · A 0.00

Home Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Away Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Consensus across 0 model · Odds: H 0.00 · A 0.00

Home Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Away Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

🔒

Veikkausliiga Finland Prediction Models

Flat Betting Model

Odds Range Filter

Market ROI Summary

Staking Plan Comparison

By Team Bets

PPG Model

Odds Range Filter

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

PPG Ratings — All Teams

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Worked Example — HJK vs KuPS

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Oulu vs VPS

Derived Markets

Correct Score — Top 12

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Team Attack & Defense Strength

How Poisson Predictions Work

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

Elo → Win Probability Table

Elo Rating History — Top 6

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Elo Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

How Elo Ratings Work

Value Scanner

Upcoming Fixtures — Value Identified by Each Model Independently