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Super Liga Serbia Prediction Models

2026/2027

Flat Betting Model

Matches w/ Odds

$10

Stake Per Bet

+29.92%

Best: Under 2.5

-29.42%

Worst: Underdog

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for Super Liga Serbia. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

Market	Bets	Wins	Win %	Staked	Return	P&L	ROI	Best Str.	Worst Str.
Home Bet	76	38	50%	$760	$776.9	+$16.90	+2.22%	9	8
Draw Bet	76	18	23.68%	$760	$672.9	−$87.10	-11.46%	3	11
Away Bet	76	20	26.32%	$760	$550.5	−$209.50	-27.57%	2	13
Over 2.5	76	35	46.05%	$760	$646.9	−$113.10	-14.88%	6	8
Under 2.5	76	41	53.95%	$760	$987.4	+$227.40	+29.92%	8	6
BTTS Yes	76	33	43.42%	$760	$678	−$82.00	-10.79%	6	6
Home Favorite	51	32	62.75%	$510	$564.7	+$54.70	+10.73%	6	4
Away Underdog	28	4	14.29%	$280	$210.4	−$69.60	-24.86%	2	20
Favorite	76	44	57.89%	$760	$791	+$31.00	+4.08%	4	3
Underdog	76	14	18.42%	$760	$536.4	−$223.60	-29.42%	3	13

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

Market	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Home Bet	76	+$16.90	+2.22%	−$55.78	-15.79%	+$40.49	+5.16%
Draw Bet	76	−$87.10	-11.46%	−$32.66	-85.54%	−$28.24	-3.6%
Away Bet	76	−$209.50	-27.57%	−$54.67	-80.6%	−$163.73	-20.69%
Over 2.5	76	−$113.10	-14.88%	−$16.12	-55.57%	−$110.20	-14.31%
Under 2.5	76	+$227.40	+29.92%	+$117.48	+18.58%	+$219.64	+27.21%
BTTS Yes	76	−$82.00	-10.79%	+$58.61	+275.04%	−$138.18	-17.48%
Home Favorite	51	+$54.70	+10.73%	−$7.66	-4.04%	+$51.82	+10.13%
Away Underdog	28	−$69.60	-24.86%	−$17.71	-39.79%	−$89.36	-31.06%
Favorite	76	+$31.00	+4.08%	−$23.95	-13.52%	+$35.12	+4.71%
Underdog	76	−$223.60	-29.42%	−$55.34	-98.61%	−$121.34	-14.42%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

Team	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Radnički Kragujevac	11	6	54.55%	+$48.50	+44.09%
Vojvodina	11	8	72.73%	+$25.60	+23.27%
Mladost Lučani	11	4	36.36%	+$19.00	+17.27%
IMT Novi Beograd	11	4	36.36%	+$18.70	+17%
Crvena zvezda	11	10	90.91%	+$15.50	+14.09%
Železničar Pančevo	11	6	54.55%	+$7.60	+6.91%
Čukarički	11	4	36.36%	+$2.90	+2.64%
Novi Pazar	11	3	27.27%	−$15.60	-14.18%
Radnik Surdulica	11	4	36.36%	−$28.70	-26.09%
Mačva Šabac	11	2	18.18%	−$33.70	-30.64%
OFK Beograd	11	2	18.18%	−$53.50	-48.64%
Radnički Niš	10	2	20%	−$50.00	-50%
Partizan	10	2	20%	−$65.90	-65.9%
Zemun	11	1	9.09%	−$83.00	-75.45%

PPG Model

Teams

1.38

League Avg PPG

1.08

Home Factor

λ=0.85

WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for Super Liga Serbia. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	74	39	52.7%	+$79.40	+10.73%
PPG Home Pick	33	22	66.67%	+$64.90	+19.67%
PPG Away Pick	41	17	41.46%	+$14.50	+3.54%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	76	37	48.68%	+$31.50	+4.14%
PPG Value (fair < market)	76	26	34.21%	−$111.40	-14.66%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:: Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:: Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:: Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:: Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:: Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
PPG Favorite (1×2)	74	+$79.40	+10.73%	−$4.77	-4.46%	+$56.89	+7.7%
PPG Home Pick	33	+$64.90	+19.67%	+$53.16	+42.13%	+$44.06	+12.62%
PPG Away Pick	41	+$14.50	+3.54%	+$13.32	+85.6%	−$5.93	-1.42%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)	76	+$31.50	+4.14%	−$45.25	-42.82%	+$48.18	+6.48%
PPG Value (fair < market)	76	−$111.40	-14.66%	−$73.77	-66.3%	−$36.78	-4.72%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds	Result	✓
25 Oct	OFK Beograd vs Crvena zvezda	Crvena zvezda	66.92%	1.49	0 – 1	✓
24 Oct	Mladost Lučani vs Vojvodina	Vojvodina	48.51%	2.06	1 – 1	✗
24 Oct	Partizan vs Čukarički	Partizan	39.53%	2.53	0 – 2	✗
23 Oct	Radnički Kragujevac vs Radnik Surdulica	Radnički Kragujevac	45.25%	2.21	1 – 0	✓
23 Oct	Radnički Niš vs Novi Pazar	Novi Pazar	45.01%	2.22	0 – 2	✓

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds
08 Aug	Radnički Niš vs Partizan	Partizan	38.98%	2.57
28 Oct	Radnički Kragujevac vs Železničar Pančevo	***	0%	0
31 Oct	Mačva Šabac vs Crvena zvezda	🔒 Login or register for free to see predictions data.
01 Nov	IMT Novi Beograd vs Čukarički
01 Nov	OFK Beograd vs Vojvodina

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

Team	PPG ↓	H-PPG	A-PPG	WPPG	vs Avg
1Crvena zvezda	2.85	3	2.67	2.93	+1.47
2Vojvodina	2.23	2.71	1.67	2.22	+0.85
3Železničar Pančevo	1.92	2.29	1.4	2.31	+0.54
4Radnički Kragujevac	1.67	2.4	1.14	1.7	+0.29
5IMT Novi Beograd	1.62	1.67	1.57	1.48	+0.24
6Mladost Lučani	1.38	1.67	1.14	1.26	0.00
7Čukarički	1.38	1.57	1.17	1.52	0.00
8Radnik Surdulica	1.31	2.14	0.33	1.25	-0.07
9Novi Pazar	1.23	1.57	0.83	1.24	-0.15
10Partizan	0.92	1	0.83	0.82	-0.46
11OFK Beograd	0.85	1	0.71	0.68	-0.53
12Mačva Šabac	0.77	1.33	0.29	0.69	-0.61
13Radnički Niš	0.67	0.8	0.57	0.51	-0.71
14Zemun	0.46	0.71	0.17	0.73	-0.92

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

Železničar Pančevo

PPG: 1.92WPPG: 2.31Gap: ↑ 0.39

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Zemun

PPG: 0.46WPPG: 0.73Gap: ↑ 0.27

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

OFK Beograd

PPG: 0.85WPPG: 0.68Gap: ↓ 0.17

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Radnički Niš

PPG: 0.67WPPG: 0.51Gap: ↓ 0.16

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

IMT Novi Beograd

PPG: 1.62WPPG: 1.48Gap: ↓ 0.14

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Worked Example — OFK Beograd vs Crvena zvezda

P(OFK Beograd) = 0.92 / (0.92+2.83) × 1.08

= 0.245 × 1.08 = 24.37% → Fair odds 4.1

P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)

= 8.71% → Fair odds 11.48

P(Crvena zvezda) = 1 − 24.37% − 8.71%

= 66.92% → Fair odds 1.49

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

1.39

Home xG (λ)

Away xG (λ)

4.39

Total E[goals]

1.56

League Avg Home

1.01

League Avg Away

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Radnički Niš vs Partizan

07 Aug · Each cell shows the probability of that exact scoreline. Dixon-Coles corrected (ρ = -0.13). · Upcoming

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	2.0%	3.2%	5.8%	5.8%	4.3%	2.6%	1.3%
1	1.1%	6.0%	8.0%	8.0%	6.0%	3.6%	1.8%
2	1.2%	3.7%	5.6%	5.6%	4.2%	2.5%	1.3%
3	0.6%	1.7%	2.6%	2.6%	1.9%	1.2%	0.6%
4	0.2%	0.6%	0.9%	0.9%	0.7%	0.4%	0.2%
5	0.1%	0.2%	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%
6	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Most likely High Medium Low

Derived Markets

Home Win

14.68%

Fair odds: 6.81

Market: 4.27 (23.4%)

Draw

17%

Fair odds: 5.88

Market: 3.74 (26.7%)

Away Win

68.33%

Fair odds: 1.46

Market: 1.82 (54.9%)

Over 0.598.02%/ Under 1.98%Fair: 1.02

Over 1.593.78%/ Under 6.22%Fair: 1.07

Over 2.580.71%/ Under 19.29%Fair: 1.24

Over 3.562.61%/ Under 37.39%Fair: 1.6

Over 4.542.74%/ Under 57.26%Fair: 2.34

BTTS Yes71.91%Fair: 1.39

BTTS No28.09%Fair: 3.56

Correct Score — Top 12

11-2

8.03%A

21-3

8.03%A

31-1

6.05%D

41-4

6.02%A

50-2

5.78%A

60-3

5.78%A

72-2

5.58%D

82-3

5.58%A

90-4

4.33%A

102-4

4.19%A

112-1

3.72%H

121-5

3.61%A

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Where the low-score correction adds value

Plain Poisson

P(0-0) = 1.2%

P(1-0) = 1.7%

P(0-1) = 3.7%

P(1-1) = 5.2%

✗ Underestimates 0-0, 1-0, 0-1

Dixon-Coles (ρ correction)

P(0-0) = 2.0% (+0.7%)

P(1-0) = 1.1% (-0.6%)

P(0-1) = 3.2% (-0.6%)

P(1-1) = 6.0% (+0.9%)

✓ Fixes low-score underestimation

💡 Why does this matter? Draws in football are dominated by 0-0 and 1-1. Plain Poisson underprices these by 15–20%. Dixon-Coles corrects this, generating better ROI on draw markets.

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Poisson/Dixon-Coles model — xG computed only from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	52	20	38.46%	−$40.20	-7.73%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	24	17	70.83%	+$36.70	+15.29%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	8	4	50%	−$11.30	-14.12%
DC Draw (>28%)	28	7	25%	−$29.40	-10.5%
DC Over 2.5 Value	14	7	50%	−$14.90	-10.64%
DC BTTS Value	8	4	50%	−$12.00	-15%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Dixon-Coles bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)	52	−$40.20	-7.73%	−$25.98	-40.69%	+$32.48	+5.97%
DC Home Pick (>50%)	24	+$36.70	+15.29%	−$15.85	-13.78%	+$44.44	+18.26%
DC Away Pick (>50%)	8	−$11.30	-14.12%	$0.00	0%	−$2.38	-2.72%
DC Draw (>28%)	28	−$29.40	-10.5%	−$2.99	-45.51%	−$32.61	-11.62%
DC Over 2.5 Value	14	−$14.90	-10.64%	−$13.87	-58.5%	−$13.06	-8.95%
DC BTTS Value	8	−$12.00	-15%	+$0.05	+71.43%	−$11.17	-13.05%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

Team	Att (H)	Def (H)	Att (A)	Def (A)	H GP	A GP
Crvena zvezda	2.2	0.42	1.49	0.11	7	6
Vojvodina	1.28	0.42	2.31	0.96	7	6
Železničar Pančevo	1.19	0.71	1.19	0.64	7	5
Radnički Kragujevac	1.41	0.79	0.99	0.92	5	7
Partizan	0.75	1.49	1.82	1.39	6	6
Čukarički	1.01	1.27	1.32	1.18	7	6
Radnik Surdulica	1.28	0.99	0.5	1.07	7	6
IMT Novi Beograd	0.75	0.33	1.13	0.64	6	7
OFK Beograd	0.75	1.49	0.99	1.28	6	7
Novi Pazar	0.92	1.27	0.5	0.53	7	6
Mladost Lučani	0.75	0.66	0.71	1.28	6	7
Mačva Šabac	0.53	0.99	0.57	1.37	6	7
Radnički Niš	0.64	1.98	0.28	0.92	5	7
Zemun	0.37	1.41	0.5	1.6	7	6

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:: Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:: P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:: Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:: Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:: Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1Crvena zvezda

1650

2Vojvodina

1585

3Železničar Pančevo

1553

4Radnički Kragujevac

1537

5IMT Novi Beograd

1527

6Mladost Lučani

1516

7Čukarički

1494

8Radnik Surdulica

1490

9Novi Pazar

1479

10OFK Beograd

1453

11Partizan

1450

12Mačva Šabac

1434

13Radnički Niš

1427

14Zemun

1404

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo Diff	P(Higher wins)	Fair Odds	Typical Matchup
0	50.0%	2.00	Evenly matched
50	57.1%	1.75	Mid vs mid-lower
100	64.0%	1.56	Top-8 vs bottom-8
150	70.3%	1.42	Top-4 vs relegation
200	76.0%	1.32	Leader vs bottom half
250	80.8%	1.24	Leader vs bottom 3
300	84.9%	1.18	Crvena zvezda vs Zemun

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

Crvena zvezdaVojvodinaŽelezničar PančevoRadnički KragujevacIMT Novi BeogradMladost Lučani

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#	Team	Elo	Peak	Δ	GP	W	D	L
1	Crvena zvezda	1650	1650	+150	13	12	1	0
2	Vojvodina	1585	1585	+85	13	9	2	2
3	Železničar Pančevo	1553	1553	+53	12	7	2	3
4	Radnički Kragujevac	1537	1552	+37	12	6	2	4
5	IMT Novi Beograd	1527	1550	+27	13	6	3	4
6	Mladost Lučani	1516	1531	+16	13	4	6	3
7	Čukarički	1494	1528	-6	13	5	3	5
8	Radnik Surdulica	1490	1511	-10	13	4	5	4
9	Novi Pazar	1479	1516	-21	13	4	4	5
10	OFK Beograd	1453	1505	-47	13	2	5	6
11	Partizan	1450	1521	-50	12	3	2	7
12	Mačva Šabac	1434	1500	-66	13	2	4	7
13	Radnički Niš	1427	1500	-73	12	2	2	8
14	Zemun	1404	1500	-96	13	1	3	9

Elo Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	61	11	18%	−$203.60	-33.38%
Elo Favourite	74	42	57%	+$78.90	+10.66%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	6	4	67%	−$11.80	-19.67%
Elo Away Pick (>50%)	1	1	100%	+$3.30	+33%
Elo Draw (>28%)	27	6	22%	−$43.50	-16.11%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	61	−$203.60	-33.38%	−$46.57	-80.28%	−$89.45	-14%
Elo Favourite	74	+$78.90	+10.66%	−$13.89	-4.85%	+$71.03	+9.01%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	6	−$11.80	-19.67%	$0.00	0%	−$4.49	-7.55%
Elo Away Pick (>50%)	1	+$3.30	+33%	$0.00	0%	+$3.30	+33%
Elo Draw (>28%)	27	−$43.50	-16.11%	−$5.34	-100%	−$46.37	-15.97%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:: Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:: E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:: R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:: Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:: Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

Upcoming Fixtures — Value Identified by Each Model Independently

Min EV threshold2%

Show models

0Value bets found

0Multi-model consensus

+0%Avg EV found

Consensus across 3 models · Odds: H 2.30 · D 3.40 · A 2.90

Home Win

40.8%

Mkt implied: 43.5%

EV -2.7%

Draw

29.4%

Mkt implied: 29.4%

EV -0.1%

Away Win

29.8%

Mkt implied: 34.5%

EV -4.6%

PPG: H 36% D 30% A 35%Dixon-Coles: H 46% D 30% A 24%Elo: H 41% D 28% A 31%

Super Liga Serbia Prediction Models

Flat Betting Model

Odds Range Filter

Market ROI Summary

Staking Plan Comparison

By Team Bets

PPG Model

Odds Range Filter

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

PPG Ratings — All Teams

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Worked Example — OFK Beograd vs Crvena zvezda

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Radnički Niš vs Partizan

Derived Markets

Correct Score — Top 12

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Team Attack & Defense Strength

How Poisson Predictions Work

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

Elo → Win Probability Table

Elo Rating History — Top 6

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Elo Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

How Elo Ratings Work

Value Scanner

Upcoming Fixtures — Value Identified by Each Model Independently